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January 28th – Horse Racing Preview
All eyes were on Mooney Valley last night with super mare BLACK CAVIAR returning to racing to contest the Group 2 Australia Stakes. The win was the 17th in its undefeated career and I can’t wait to see this horse take on the rest of the world.
We get straight into the action at Sandown with VOLANDO looking the goods in the 1st race of the day. Although the mare has 60kg from the handicapper, Peter Moody has placed young apprentice Jake Duffy on board giving him a 3kg claim. This horse has been in great form this prep and finished a game 2nd behind Flyingconi who was our TopPunter selection last weekend. There are some other nice looking races but just a couple of question marks ruled out a few options for us until the 7th race of the day. HENWOOD is an easing favourite with the money coming for INSTALMENT who won the race last time they met. However, I think the tables will be turned again with Henwood faring better with the increases in weight and had its share of troubles last time round as well. And finally I am really keen to see how West Australian galloper LIKE AN EAGLE goes in its first appearance on the East Coast. It was very impressive last preparation with a strong finishing burst and could be one to follow in the coming weeks.
Canterbury looks a much tougher meeting with a number of short priced horses that all look vulnerable in their own way. The 5th race definitely sparks some interest with some good form leading into it with the likes of NEWS ALERT and EIGHT BILLS in strong form along with the returning STEPS IN TIME which has some big wraps on it. Our only bet of the day is a race late when DUKE OF CORNWELL gets his chance in a much weaker race than he has come up against in the past couple of weeks. A nice claim from Sam Clipperton has the horse nicely weighted and ready to win.
We have an incredibly wet track to deal with up north at Doomben and if they get any more rain they are in huge danger of being called off. I tread very lightly in conditions like this but MISS BARWANG looks a strong shot in the 2nd race of the day. Hopefully the track isn’t too chopped up early on and the race will be a true test. This horse has shown a liking for the soft surfaces with 2 wins from 2 attempts and is in good form lately as well. If it makes it to the 7th race of the day it will be worth watching with a number of quality horses running around. I’d probably lean towards WHATEVERWHENEVER at this stage but I’d say I’ll just be a spectator here.
To South Australia and one of our favourites in STIRLING GROVE goes round again. It’s found an annoying habit of just missing the price recently and although tempted the $1.80 price tag just seems a bit of a stretch especially when up against local OUTLANDISH LAD who has been in good form.
It may pay to watch GREEN SUPREME in the Wellington Cup at Trentham today (2.26pm) too. This horse looks to be turning into a great distance horse and with solid results in this race and the Auckland Cup (run over 3200m) will probably have connections aiming for the 2012 Melbourne Cup.
We finish the day in the West with CAVALLO PAZZO who looks a great chance to finish the day off in a winning way. This horse has won 2 on the trot and is well weighted and has the experienced Peter Knuckey on board.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
12.50pm – Sandown Race 1 – 1. VOLANDO (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
2.00pm –Doomben Race 2 – 3. MISS BARWANG (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
4.30pm – Canterbury Race 6 – 4. DUKE OF CORNWELL (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
4.50pm – Sandown Race 7 – 9. HENWOOD (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
7.20pm – Ascot Race 6 – 2. CAVALLO PAZZO (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
5.50pm – Canterbury Race 8 – 12. PEPIN HOAKS (Currently $26)
January 21st – KFC Big Bash
It’s down to the business end of the season in the Big Bash with Semi Final action tonight and tomorrow. We haven’t been getting too involved this season but both semi finals have presented some nice looking odds for the favoured team in each leg.
Tonight the PERTH SCORCHERS ($1.78) take on the MELBOURNE STARS ($2.05) at the WACA. The Scorchers have been in great form the whole way through the competition and although they suffered a loss to Hobart in their last start they had little motivation with a top spot on the table in the bag. Meanwhile the Stars needed to win their last 3 on the trot just to earn a spot tonight and have been playing some decent cricket. Whilst the Stars have the mastermind Shane Warne to guide them around the park they lack the experience that has helped the Scorchers through the season with a great batting line up with Hershel Gibbs, Marcus North and Sean Marsh leading the way. Equally their young bowling attack of Coulter-Nile and Edmondson has been strengthened with the return of veteran Brad Hogg who is in form at the right time of the competition.
The other match looks even more lopsided even though the odds don’t say so with the HOBART HURRICANES ($1.72) taking on the SYDNEY SIXERS ($2.12) at Belrieve, Tasmania. Again I think the team without the huge momentum has the advantage with Hobart looking a strong side throughout the season which finished with a good win over the Renegades at home. Shah and Birt have continued their run scoring all season finishing 1st and 2nd on the total runs list. Meanwhile the Sixers have won 3 in a row but have been on the fortunate end of a couple of rain affected matches and I question the strength of their side especially against Hilfenhaus, Naved-Ul Hasan and Doherty who have managed to take regular wickets throughout each match to place a strangle hold on their opposition.
Our Selections this week are:
HOBART HURRICANES to beat Sydney Sixers at $1.72 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
January 13th – Magic Millions Race Day Preview
The big racing heads north for the Magic Millions Carnival on the Gold Coast this weekend. As always the carnival has attracted some good fields and the weather is trying to hold strong for a great weekend of racing. They are expecting some light drizzle on Friday afternoon and Saturday morning but I’d expect the track to be in top condition for the day. The only issue is the track itself has been bogeyed by some shady characters over the years that make it a place I rarely bet at unless feeling very confident. It’s a real shame as this carnival is one that I have never attended due to that reason and I’m probably the one missing out. Having said that the stories I’ve heard over the years never revolve around this carnival but your week to week racing so if you’re looking forward to the day don’t let that stop you.
The 1st race of the day is a huge field of maidens which does not spark much interest for racing unless you enjoy playing pin the tail on the donkey. Having said that I was surprised to see the 3rd emergency in WIN FOR LAYLA at such big odds ($26.00). If it manages to get a run it could really put on a show. Its drawn a great barrier and well weighted, good jockey in Tim Bell and raced against some quality animals without being too disgraced. The 2nd race of the day looks to be settled between SPIRIT OF FLATLEY, GRIFFON and STRATFORD. I’m a bit concerned about the betting drift early in the week on Spirit of Flately as I feel its shown some real progression this preparation and the harder surface is in its favour. Likewise I have question marks over Stratford who’s only run on a harder surface wasn’t that impressive so no doubt it will be praying for rain. The consistent one in the field is clearly Griffon who has produced 2 great runs this time round on wet surfaces and its record on the better tracks is fine. No starts at the Gold Coast is a bit of a worry considering the tightness of the track but surely trainer Robert Heathcote has given him a few runs around to get used to it.
We skip the 3rd race and head to the 4th and the Magic Millions Sprint over 1000m and a tough field. There look to be many chances here and although favourite SEEK AND FIND looks to have a bit of quality and form on them I don’t think the Gold Coast track suits his run home style which was shown up in his last race here. Even though he was given a golden passage up the straight he failed to gun down the winner, although the 59kgs wouldn’t have helped. NUPTSE has plenty of admirers with 4 wins from 9 starts but I feel she’s been well placed in her races and wins against average fields, which this isn’t. WARRIOR GIRL is a track specialist and usually races well fresh. Forget its last run when it copped some interference that saw it pushed out to last when beaten by Nuptse.
We start to move onto the big races with the 2yo Magic Millions Classic always a great one for action chasing the $2,000,000 in prize money. I am a huge fan of SIZZLING, who looked the real deal in winning its maiden race by 6 lengths late last year. Since then it has jumped out of the clouds for a pair of 2nd place finishes doing its best work when the race was over. This is a huge concern for the Gold Coast track and connections will have to consider racing the horse much closer to the pace with the advantage of a better barrier draw this week. Conversely early favourite DRIEFONTEIN deserves to be favourites with a perfect barrier draw for a horse who is sure to roll straight to the front and attempt to dictate terms as it did against Sizzling last time round. Hard to really find a danger to those 2 even though there is some solid form in amongst the others. I’d probably include SNIPTZU in your multiples if that’s the way you like to play.
The 6th and next race is the Guineas over 1400m and its probably the toughest race of the day to pick. If you’re managing to have a good day by now then go have a break for a bit. Have a bite to eat, get in the beer line or chat to some strangers as this race spells trouble. For the diehard punters I’d lean ever so slightly in favour of EASY RUNNING, although if the Sydney trained SAFUSA and HAPPY HUSSY both handle the track on their first visit they will be tough to beat.
The good racing continues in the 7th race of the day with the Magic Millions Cup well supported by the older horses. CATAPULTED assumes favouritism on the back a great 3 length win down the straight at Flemington last time round. There are many differences here and you’d want to be a huge fan of the horse to get your cash on him tomorrow. LATIN NEWS rarely runs a bad race and has been supported in early betting again suggesting he is ready to break a string of 2nd placings that has peppered his current campaign. MY DESTINY has made it 4 wins on the trot and is showing the gritty strength it takes to be a great horse when the challenge is set down in the straight.
The “Stayers” Cup is the penultimate race over the day and I put the name of the race in quotations as the race is only over 1800m. Not much of a staying test! Sydney Galloper KONTIKI PARK takes favouritism after a strong win in its first Queensland effort but I’m not as convinced here. There are a number of horses we have supported in recent weeks to great success which represent much better value. RACING HEART, HIDDEN KISSES and SATCH are all in double figures and been racing well. Whilst they haven’t registered a win at the Gold Coast track they have at least had a run here which puts them at a huge advantage to the favourite.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
1.15pm – Flemington Race 2 – 2. ROSES IN THE GLEN
(Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
3.15pm – Flemington Race 5 – 3. BELGIETTO
(Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
3.35pm – Rosehill Race 5 – 8. ALMA’S FURY
(Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
4.15pm – Rosehill Race 6 – 9. BELLO (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
5.10pm – Ascot Race 2 – 2. THE WEAPON (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
1.05pm – Gold Coast Race 1 – 19. WIN FOR LAYLA (Currently $26)
3.05pm – Gold Coast Race 4 – 7. WARRIOR GIRL (Currently $17)
4.45pm – Morphettville Race 7 – 6. GENEROUS BEAU (Currently $13)
5.15pm – Flemington Race 8 – 10. KASANE (Currently $17)
January 11th – PGA and European Tour Previews
The golf season has begun again with the European Tour in South Africa whilst the PGA Tour goes to Hawaii. The Joburg Open has always put together a strong field and this year is a bit of an exception with a few of the bigger names not attending. There is one player who stands out miles in front of his rivals in CHARL SCHWARTZEL ($4.33) who has won this event comfortably the past 2 years and is in incredible form with finishes of 12th,9th,4th and 5th in his past 4 European Tour events. Coming in fresh of a few weeks break over Christmas and the New Year I think Charl is a very good chance to make it 3 in a row here but unfortunately so do the bookies who have opened him at a Tiger like price of $4.33 to win the tournament. Funnily enough that is still tempting as it is hard to see him not figuring in the finish on Sunday but I think the safer option is to back him for the place and be happy with the $1.73 on offer (Sportsbet.com and IASBet.com). I also like the look of DANNY WILLET ($26.00) and THOMAS AIKEN ($15.00) to win their respective groups (Available on Sportsbet.com.au) following a good record at this tournament along with nice finishes of 7th and 14th respectively at the African Open last week.
On the PGA Tour we have the Sony Open in the beautiful Waialae Country Club in Honolulu Hawaii. It’s always been tough to get a gauge of where some players are at this early in the season and often many of the big names are trying new equipment, swings etc so they are ready for the big money later in the year. Tournament favourite STEVE STRICKER ($8.50) is clearly using this time of the year to get some form on the board after a fairly ordinary 2011. A win last week sees him come in a very short favourite and based on the fact this is generally a course for the best ball strikers you’d find it hard to argue. You can couple that with a 9th place finish here last year. My top selection however goes with KJ CHOI ($15.00) who is a former champion around here and had a solid 2011 campaign even though he didn’t fare so well missing the cut here in 2011. I’m willing to forgive that as he just couldn’t get things going there last time round but then his season really took off. A 5th place finish at the Tournament of Champions (Behind Stricker) last week suggests he is coming into this with his game in the right spot. The other good looking bet is a fairly unknown golfer in MARK WILSON ($41.00) who has had a great start to the year at this course the past 2 years with a 20th in 2010 followed up with a victory here in 2011. An 18th place finish in a strong field last week suggests he is hitting the ball well and ready to defend his crown.
Our Selections this week are:
CHARL SHWARTZEL to finish in the Top 5 Overall in the Joburg Open at $1.73(Sports Managed Fund 15% Bet)
DANNY WILLET to win his group (Havret, Van Der Walt, Grace and Otto) at $3.75(Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
THOMAS AIKEN to win his group (Goosen, Coetzee, Mulroy and Van Zyl) at $4.33(Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
MARK WILSON to beat Jerry Kelly in the Sony Open at $1.90
(Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
KJ CHOI to beat Zach Johnson in the Sony Open at $1.90
(Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
December 26th – Summer Cup Day Preview
Hope you all had an enjoyable Christmas with loved ones today. You should have had an extra little bonus for the day after we scored an incredible 4 winners from our 5 selections (The 5th horse ran 2nd) for a super day on the punt. We move to Boxing Day racing and we have some solid cards across the country with the feature race of the day being the Group 3 Summer Cup at Rosehill (The meeting has been transferred from the traditional Randwick meeting). Unfortunately that is a highlight of what is a fairly average race day. Usually this day attracts some quality fields and is a great day for punting but I think with the day falling so close to a Saturday meeting that many trainers opted to place their horses in on the weekend instead.
We start the day at race 3 which looks a match in 2 between BURNOUT and DAYMO and we find both at a decent price. I can’t see this being the quinella though as the chances of both will be dictated by the speed of the race with Daymo likely to get up on the pace and Burnout will sit back for one crack at them in the straight. That being said I think the value is with Burnout with a number of horses who prefer to race closer to the speed which will more than likely cause a solid tempo. Burnout also meets Daymo 2kgs better off after their last meeting.
We move forward to Race 6 and the Summer Cup and my top selection goes with SCOUTING WIDE who has shown great progression this preparation as Tim Martin gradually steps this horse up in distance clearly with the focus of this race in his plans. The horse is undefeated over this course and distance and a 5kg drop in weight from its last start 2nd is ideal. The value is there for us to get on board, however, you have to say that FULL PEAL will be tough to beat if it handles the move up from Victoria. The reason why I think it is vulnerable tomorrow though is because this will be its first run in Sydney and it has to step up another 400m from its last start.
Caulfield fails to impress in the early meetings until we get to race 5 which is a cracking race for the sprinters. I’m keen to see the return of THERE’S ONLY ONE who was super impressive moving through the grades last preparation. I think this horse has some real ability and is definitely one to watch in the coming weeks. I think it may find some of these a bit too zippy for it first up and am leaning towards ZEFTABA and AVIONICS as my top selections.
To the next race and we have another solid horse making its return to racing in MR MAKE BELIEVE who may find the track a little too firm to produce a top first up effort. Having said that it normally comes together quickly so a win would not surprise. SECOND EFFORT is another who we should keep an eye on after going for a spell after they found it had a respiratory infection last time round. Before that the horse was dominating some decent fields with 4 wins on the trot so you have to show it some respect.
TWO SUGARS gets us our only official bet of the day at Caulfield on the back of 3 wins on the trot and wins against horses it meets again tomorrow. It will probably have to work a little to get over from the wide barrier but the price is definitely right for us to get involved.
Morphettville tried hard with some big fields and possible chances but the confidence just isn’t there.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
2.25pm – Rosehill Race 3 – 1. BURNOUT (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
4.12pm – Rosehill Race 6 – 4. SCOUTING WIDE (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
4.35pm – Caulfield Race 7 – 1. TWO SUGARS (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
4.52pm – Rosehill Race 7 – 10. EARNEST ERNEST (Currently $17)
December 24th – Racing Preview
The form for tomorrow actually surprised me with some really good looking bets out there. I really expected not to find much but glad I spent the time going through the form with the same routine as many horses fell into the criteria for closer inspection. Most of the time when there is a Saturday field so close to Boxing Day the fields are weak and you feel like you are wasting your time.
A few of our early possibilities at Sandown have been passed by after not quite making the selection criteria for an Early Mail pick. We take until the 5th race of the day till we find our first be there with SONG OF THE BELL who produced a good effort first up over an unsuitable distance and having to work hard early. She will be much fitter for the run and back to the 1000m with a good draw I think presents good value. OFORAWESOME looks great value in the 6th and I was tempted to make it an each way selection, however, you have to be wary of the money around FLYINGCONI who has been backed from $13 into $5.50 and I there has been a lot of talk around the bottom weight ZERO TO SIXTY who has made an impression in its first 2 starts. Another who just misses selection even though you have to be impressed with its 2 career runs. The impressive thing for me with these runs is also what worries me here. Clearly unsuited by the short Caulfield straight which didn’t allow it enough time to finish will find a similar story here at the Sandown track.
To Canterbury and we get into the action with WINNING GLORY who I am backing up on after it just failed to run the distance last time round for us. I thought Nash Rawiller went too early at Rosehill and left it a sitting duck in the final 100m but the Canterbury track and a few kgs off will be definitely too its advantage. No surprise to see half the punting world on TIGER TEES tomorrow since it has racked up 5 wins from 7 starts and is in great form. A last start 2nd to Group 1 winning Atomic Force only pushed it higher up the ranks and I would expect this horse to shift into single figures by tomorrow so take the fixed odds while you can.
Doomben has seen plenty of bets go by the way side and once again it is a case of close but no cigar on many options. Funnily enough my first bet of the day is on SATCH in the 5th who I suggested was a possible bet on Wednesday when it was scratched. The reason it missed the Early Mail on Wednesday was the $1.70 price tag on its head which I didn’t think was value in a strong mid week race (As it turned out it didn’t matter with the scratching). However, here it definitely meets tougher opposition, but not by much and the price is much more generous. The listed Lough Neagh is definitely a highlight of the day with a field full of chances. Hard to really feel confident about any particular horse and many punters will probably just stick with their favourites. I’m torn between the bottom weights with MY DESTINY attempting to bring its Sydney form up north while STEEL ZIP looks ready to produce a big effort and this race looks well suitable.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
2.55pm – Morphettville Race 4 – 1. MOVING MONEY (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
3.05pm –Canterbury Race 4 – 3. WINNING GLORY (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
3.25pm – Sandown Race 5 – 4. SONG OF THE BELL (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
3.45pm – Canterbury Race 5 – 3. TIGER TEES (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
3.55pm – Doomben Race 5 – 7. SATCH (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
4.05pm – Sandown Race 6 – 2. OFORAWESOME (Currently $11)
4.26pm – Canterbury Race 6 – 6. ONE WAY TICKET (Currently $17)
4.50pm – Ascot Race 5 – 6. LAST CURTAIN (Currently $17)
December 12th – Dubai World Championship
The European Tour has its season ending tournament with the Dubai World Championship finalising the winner of the season long Race to Dubai. LUKE DONALD ($12.00) is the 2nd favourite to win this weekend but has an almost unassailable lead in the Race to Dubai. It’s an amazing season for Donald who looks certain to claim the money title in both the European and PGA Tour, a feat I haven’t heard of for a long time. Basically he would have to miss the cut and have RORY McILROY ($6.00) win. To make up the 800,00 euro difference in prize money he needs. The price for both McIlroy and WESTWOOD ($6.50) is incredibly short even though the pair are in good form and played well here last year finishing 5th and 3rd respectively. I couldn’t possibly taken them on at that price. MARTIN KAYMER ($15.00) showed some glimpses of form last weekend and has an incredible record when playing in Dubai. He failed to get the job done over the weekend here last time round but this is a typical Greg Norman designed course that requires a strong mental game and prior knowledge has always been a plus here.
Of the outsiders I would have to consider Y.E. YANG ($41.00) a serious contender with some solid performances in the past couple of months. Put that with a 13th place finish last year and he has to be good each way value. The other contender would be CHARL SCHWARZEL ($26.00) who looks back on track to start his winnings ways and put together a strong first and final round last year finishing middle of the pack.
Our Selections are:
MARTIN KAYMER to beat Paul Casey at $1.85 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)
CHARL SCWARTZEL to beat Louis Oosthuizen at $1.81 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)
November 18th – Presidents Cup (Friday Four Ball)
I thought we were incredibly unlucky to not pick up both victories yesterday with Aaron Baddeley and Jason Day losing both the last 2 holes to end up with a tie against Dustin Johnson and Matt Kuchar.
We are sticking with the same pairing to beat the same pairing (A bit unusual for that to happen in this format) with Watson / Simpson taking on Els / Ishikawa again after beating them comfortably on day one. We are getting a slightly lower price today but I still believe there is plenty of value there. The 2nd bet that looks value is Adam Scott teaming up with Kyung-Tae Kim against the old heads in Phil Mickelson and Jim Furyk. Scott should be able to help Kim a lot better around the course and I think the price is very generous.
Our Selections are:
BUBBA WATSON / WEBB SIMPSON to beat Els / Ishikawa at $1.87 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)
ADAM SCOTT / KYUNG-TAE KIM to beat Mickelson / Furyk at $2.28 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Win)
November 16th – Presidents Cup Golf
The Presidents Cup golf kicks off tomorrow and it’s a strong field that takes place for both the INTERNATIONALS ($1.87) and the USA ($1.95) with many believing the local knowledge of the 5 Aussies selected being the deciding factor. I was a big fan of the Europeans to topple the Americans in the Ryder Cup and my first thought was for a similar result here until I thought more deeply into the selections that each side has picked. Greg Norman (Captain of the International Team) has selected a team with knowledge of the Royal Melbourne Course along with some new up and coming talent which appears to be a great mix, however, I think the USA team has a better balance. Players like Tiger, Mickelson, Stricker, Furyk, Toms are so used to eating up the pressure that comes from an event like this and I think they hold too much weight. Add to that the rookies they have picked are on fire at the moment in Webb Simpson, who dominated the later part of the 2011 season and Nick Watney, who won twice on the PGA Tour this year. In fact Watney really impressed me with his play in his Australian debut at the Aussie Open last weekend suggesting he has acclimatised very quickly to the windy conditions that he will get this week.
I will try and do an update on each days events as they come to hand but it can sometimes be difficult to be ready to go as soon as the pairings have been chosen and had time to review the previous rounds play.
Thursdays competition sees the players in a foursome format which means each team of two plays with one ball taking alternate shots. This is usually an event where prior experience is a huge advantage as communication and trust are tested to the limit. I really like the first USA pairing of BUBBA WATSON / WEBB SIMPSON ($2.06) who take on the old stager ERNIE ELS and young gun RYO ISHIKAWA ($2.26). Els has won at Royal Melbourne before but Watson and Simpson have been in great form recently and this looks a solid opening pick for me.
In match 2 I give the nod to GEOFF OGILVY / CHARL SCHWARTZEL ($2.02) over BILL HAAS / NICK WATNEY ($2.30) due to experience. However, as I stated I really liked the way Watney played last week and I’m not willing to take him on. In match 3 I was really surprised by the odds when AARON BADDELEY / JASON DAY ($2.08) take on DUSTIN JOHNSON / MATT MUCHAR ($2.26) as I thought the Aussies would’ve been much shorter. They have experience, form and the white hot putter of Baddeley on their side whilst the USA has to juggle the erratic Johnson with the consistent Kuchar who was pretty disappointing over the weekend. Putting will be such a huge factor this week and Aaron Baddeley would have to be one of my favourites for the highest points tally.
Match 4 is a very experienced foursome of PHIL MICKELSON / JIM FURYK ($2.08) taking on ROBERT ALLENBY / RETIEF GOOSEN ($2.26). Hard to find a winner here but should be a hard fought match. Maybe a Tie ($6.00)? Likewise I couldn’t separate DAVID TOMS / HUNTER MAHAN ($2.10) and KYUNG-TAE KIM / Y.E. YANG ($2.24) as all players can be up and down from time to time.
Finally Match 6 is a thriller with TIGER WOODS / STEVE STRICKER ($2.16) taking on ADAM SCOTT / KJ CHOI ($2.16). The bookies can’t split them and why would you want to. Tiger returned to form last weekend with a strong effort in the Australian Open and his record with Steve Stricker as partner is fantastic. Having said that Adam Scott has had his best season in a long time on the PGA Tour and KJ Choi is a master at the pairs format making this a great contest.
I make it 3 points each after day one
Our Selections are:
BUBBA WATSON / WEBB SIMPSON to beat Els / Ishikawa at $2.06 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)
AARON BADDELEY / JASON DAY to beat Johnson / Kuchar at $2.08 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)
November 3rd – Oaks Day Preview
A Melbourne Cup has come and gone and although we missed the chocolates on the big race many punters had a great day out with our 3 selections finishing 2nd, 2nd and 1st for a solid profit for the day. We move onto the 2nd last big race day of the carnival with the Group 1 Oaks for the 3yr old fillies being the feature event.
We get straight into the action with a very good looking bet in the 2nd race of the day in CLIQUES. This is a very impressive looking horse and showed its true colours with a dominant win at Kyneton last time round. Has found trouble a couple of times when visiting the big smoke but from the inside barrier tomorrow I think we will be getting in the collect queue nice and early.
When it comes time for the Oaks (Race 6) it gets really tough. Many of the favourites haven’t really shown me anything to suggest that the 2500m is in their repertoire suggesting that the race could be taken out by one of the lesser known horses. Often this race is set at a fairly swift tempo as these horses, with barely any racing under their belt, don’t know any better which turns it into a true staying test. I don’t see that in any of the favourite with the exception of RAVHEEL who hit the line better than the others last start when they were all blown away by Atlantic Jewel. GIOE, VITTORIA and PENTIMENTO all look way better value for me and would be a much smarter each way option.
TORAH was impressive winning on Cox Plate day against a strong field of horses and I can easily see the step up to 1800m being right in her grasp. I am a little concerned about the rise in weight which may test the young 3 yr old and for that reason it just misses out on the Early Mail spot. If you are having a good day on the punt though it’s probably worth a dig. PERTURBO looks nicely placed in the 8th race against a strong field. The 1000m is maybe a little skinny for it but I think it could find some nice cover and at the odds is worth taking the risk with a erratic favourite in MASTER HARRY.
Over in New South Wales we have the Hawkesbury Gold Cup being held and a really strong field is there to contest it this year. Really hard to see SOMEPIN ANYPIN getting beaten here but not keen to take on the $1.70 on offer with Hawkesbury being a really tricky circuit and there also has to be some question marks about it getting over comfortably from barrier 14. In the last favourite TITLE looks a very good chance but the price has got me scared again at $2.50. It’s a big weight to carry but this horse has got plenty of class on the others. Maybe it’s worth chucking a small multi on the 2 horses together to get you more realistic odds of around $4.30 and hope they both run up to their potential.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
1.00pm – Flemington Race 2 – 1. CLIQUES (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
5.10pm – Flemington Race 8 – 4. PERTURBO (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
1.40pm – Flemington Race 3 – 15. MISS OCTOPUSSY (Currently $13)
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