Formula 1 – British Grand Prix
British Grand Prix:
Brawn and Red Bull will be quick here. The Red Bull car loves the high speed corners and there’s plenty at Silverstone. That said, the Brawn has been good everywhere.
The front running teams have aero updates, Brawn not so significant. The Red Bull will look a little different with a new nose, new engine cover, updated rear diffuser and a changed wheel base. Hoping for .1 to .2s. Will it be enough? Ferrari also are looking to be quick after making changes.
So, on to my bets:
Winner:
Main chances: Button at 1.97, Vettel 6, Webber 13. Hard to go past Button, but not much value at those odds imo, too risky. Barrichello at 8.8 might be worth a small value bet.
But I prefer ‘Winning Car‘ odds, Betfair gives ‘winning car’ odds atm:
Brawn: 1.46
Red Bull: 4.2
At these odds, throw some on the red bull, and cover that bet with money on the Brawn and you’ll be in front if the predicted cars turn up like last GP. Big win if Red Bull get up. Can’t see anyone else challenging really – maybe Ferrari.
Ferrari. New lighter chassis, some aero updates improvements. Take Massa or Raikkonnen for a podium at about 5.5 each. Your call on who but I like Massa for a value bet. With the right money weightings I think you can be up no matter what happens or at least have a minor loss with a good chance for Red Bull to win and clean up.
Roughie?
Put $10 on bourdais or buemi to get a point. Paying $11. Will blow out if they qualify badly but that makes it even more value. Their RedBull-lite model car should have some oomph.
As always with the F1, ignore the practice form, and look at what the drivers are saying after each day. If a teammate is doing well but the other guy is slow chances are they’ll even up by race time.
Post Qualifying bet changes
Haven’t really properly watched the odds but they’ll change post qualifying if it doesn’t go to plan for the top teams. Maybe be able to back then lay and cover – I expect Red Bull and Brawn to fight it out, Vettel perhaps on poll on a light fuel strategy, if he can put it all together he’ll have a great chance.
BETS
We’ll have $200 on Red Bull at 4.2. The Red Bull will be very hard to beat, suited to this circuit, and the closest chance the Brawn not set up for Silverstone.
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