July 31st – Horse Racing (Running Total +$3665)
Nice and short and sweet today. I thought it was a handy days racing but Ipswich and Swan Hill are very competitive and hard to find a standout winner there. We have a few at Warwick Farm even though it is a Heavy track and i am normally a little cautious but i have big wraps on the three horses we’re on today. You can bet at Muswellbrook at your own peril!
1.40pm – Warwick Farm Race 3 – 1. Deedra (Will be a fairly short favourite around the $2.20 mark but deservedly. Has only run 2 placings over the soft ground but struck a couple of good horses and some things didn’t go her way so with an ideal barrier i’m expecting good things today)
3.25pm – Warwick Farm Race 6 – 19. Eighto (Drawn the carpark so would want $6+ about this one but right in this race, brilliant trial win and shows plenty of scope for improvement)
A horse we love to follow today will be a big roughie:
2.50pm – Warwick Farm Race 5 – 3. Ravna Gora (Is a little out of its class depth here but has shown plenty of ticker and definitely has ability. Worth a few bob each way for sure and will be recorded as $50 E/W)
LATE MAIL:
(SCRATCHED! – Swan Hill Races Abandoned after Race 5) – Swan Hill Race 9 – 4. Blitzkreig (Has been super impressive in its two wins from its previous two starts and will love the firmer surface today. Probably should get between $2.50 – $3.00)
RESULTS
DEEDRA ($2.10/$1.41) was gallant in defeat running 2nd. Ravna Gora was always at the tail and was clearly outclassed. Eighto was sent out at ridiculous odds at $4 and wellunder our minimum bet requirement of $6+. Eighto was stuck wide the entire trip and never a chance. Unfortunately Blitzkrieg didn’t get the chance to race as Swan Hill was abandond after 4 races.
Loss for the day -$200
July 30th – AFL (Running Total +$28)
Here are this weekends special bets for the AFL
Most disposals in their group
$50 on DANE SWAN (Collingwood vs Brisbane)
$2.60 (TAB) $2.75 (SportsBet)
$100 on GARY ABLETT (Geelong vs Adelaide)
$2.80 (TAB) $2.75 (SportsBet)
$100 on HEATH SCOTLAND (Carlton vs North Melbourne)
$3.60 (TAB) (SportsBet offering a different group paying $9.00, that is not our bet)
Most Goals in their respective matches:
$100 on BRENDAN FEVOLA (Carlton vs North Melbourne)
$2.00 (TAB) $2.00 (SportsBet)
$50 on BRAD JOHNSON (Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle)
$4.60 (TAB) $5.00 (SportsBet)
$20 on JESSIE WHITE (Sydney vs St Kilda)
$11.00 (TAB) $11.00 (SportsBet)
Only 2 winners but probably the ones that count. DANE SWAN tied for the lead so that was a win and JESSIE WHITE at $11 got over the line for us for a nice return. Fevola was the only one of the others that really got close kcik a few late goals and infact had the shot right in front and chipped over the top to give his team mate an easier goal and the most goals for the night.
Loss of $62.50 on the weekend
July 30th – Cricket (Running Total -$378)
We come to the 3rd test with England now leading 1-0 and will be doing everything to hold onto that lead. Everything is in the favour of that happening with the Aussies in turmoil with strike bowler Mitchell Johnson out of form and the lynch mob after flashy opener Phil Hughes. The weather predicted during the 3rd test is also expected to be very ordinary and I think it will take a team to fail in one innings to leave it open for the win.
Firstly we come to Phil Hughes who has been surrounded by rumours today that he is to be dropped from the team in place of Shane Watson who will open. IF this happens then Australia have clearly lost the plot and might as well pack up and go home. I’m definitely not saying if Hughes doesn’t play then the Aussies don’t win but he is their investment in the future and if they turf him after a couple of rough starts, against what all quality commentators have called vicious bowling, then we are wasting our time in England. Not to mention the fact his replacement, Watson, only averagese 19.76 and is clearly an injury risk in the side having not finished a number of games he has played for Australia.
Ok i’ve got that off my chest now. Sorry about the rant!
Hard to really predict what will happen in this test but i would suggest sticking with batsmen who do well in tough conditions and don’t mind the stop start. Simon Katich is ideal in this situation whereas Ricky Ponting tends to have a little trouble getting going. Likewise on the other side Andrew Strauss is a brilliant beginner while Alaister Cook and Ian Bell have had trouble in the past getting away.
So our bets and results are:
$50 on Simon Katich to top score for the Aussies in the first innings @ $5.40 Second highest score so just missing out there.
$200 on Andrew Strauss to outscore Alastair Cook in the first innings @ $1.86 WINNER! Cook goes for a duck and we clean up
Profit for the Day +$122
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July 30th – Golf (Running Total -$60)
European Tour
A brand new course awaits us in the European Tour this week at Prosper Golf Resort in the Czech Republic. This makes tipping a bit of a nightmare as there is no real form work to go on from the course except the fact that Miguel Angel Jimeniz.
The only other thing that is worth noting is Alex Cejka although raised in Germany was born in the Czech Republic and may feel at home in the area.
Head to Head bets only
$100 on ALEX CEJKA to beat Graeme Storm @ $2.16
$100 on DANNY WILLET to beat Thomas Levet @ $2.12
PGA Tour
We have the Buick Open in action on the PGA Tour and it will be very interesting to see what happens. This is one of Tiger Woods most favourite courses and you would be wise to forget his last start failure in The Open Championship. As we stated before the Open the course didn’t suit him and he was in good form coming into the event. The $2.80 is just a little skinny for me. I haven’t got a standout selection here either and with the uncertainty with Tiger its not worth having a crack yet but maybe something later in the tournament.
Head to head bets only
$100 on BRIAN GAY to beat Nick Watney @ $2.04
$100 on JONATHON BYRD to beat Freddie Jacobson @ $2.26
$100 on JASON DAY to beat Brett Quigley @ $1.94
July 30th – Horse Racing (Running Total +$3865)
Not much doing for us today with a fairly average days racing and more wet tracks. We may have a late mail tip at Northam but I need to check out a bit more about the track bias and conditions first.
The Bets for today
Ballarat Race 2 – 7. PLACID DUKE
Ballarat Race 6 – 5. LADY LISBON
Gosford Race 3 – 10. IN LIGHTEN
In the first race at Gosford I noticed 10. HILELIABELLE had the booking of Danny Nikolic and it’s his only one of the day. It’s very rare for a top line jockey like Nickolic to go all the way to the track for just one bet. This horse is a first starter and I’ve seen no trial form so I have nothing else to go on but it’s worth a $50 each way bet as I’ve seen these get up more often than not.
Results
There was specking for our (rough chance) horse in Hilelliabelle who loomed as the winner in the straight before being swamped in the final 100m running 4th. PLACID DUKE ($4.00/$1.51) then got us off to a winning day doing it in solid fashion. In Lighten had a dream run in front and looked a good chance till another horse flew by it and made it go for home at the 600. This cost it in the end as it gobbled up the runaway horse but was left a sitting duck for the pack who came late to grab it in the final 50 to run third. We finished the day in stunning fashion with LADY LISBON ($7.50/$1.82) steamed down the outside to win and finish us a huge profit on the day. It was even matched at $10 on betfair before the jump!!
Profit for today +$750
July 29th – Horse Racing (Running Total +$3115.50)
Some good results but also some very poor efforts from some horses i regarded very good chances today.
Gar Order was the best bet by almost every tipster i saw today and was very hard done by when boxed in on the inside for the entire length of the straight. Probably the inexperience of the jockey cost us on that one but watching the replay i can easily see how that happened (Still a horse to follow). Very poor runs after good rides from Tinjinarni, Burdane, Eau de Joie and Devon Edge who were all in the money.
REIZARB ($4.30/$1.41) tried hard but wasn’t good enough running 3rd while DEUTSCHE ($6.00/$1.72) was incredibly game once again running a tough 2nd and probably deserved the win.
Then came our long shots. Mazacano was a late scratching, Monte Falco never really got in the game while Damien Oliver rode OUR LUCKY LADY ($11.00/$2.53) a treat to take the inside run and claim the prize saving us for the day. In fact if you followed the multiple numbers i gave you the triffecta was there for the taking paying over $500 on IASbet.
Loss for the day -$123.50
July 29th – Early Mail
Morning,
An interesting days racing today with metropolitan meetings at Canterbury (Heavy 9), Sandown (Slow 6), Morphettville (Dead 4) and Eagle Farm (Good 3). Canterbury isn’t a bad meeting with strong form to read through in Races 5,6 and 8. Sandown by far is the best track for the day but is ruined by the slow track. Eagle Farm has a number of promising youngsters contesting the early races then a few good form races later in the day. Morphettville is terrible and belongs more as a Tuesday meeting at Port Augusta than a metropolitan meeting on a Wednesday. Bet there at your own risk with a blindfold on and the knives locked far away.
The Bets for today
Eagle Farm Race 5 – 3. GAG ORDER
Eagle Farm Race 6 – 3. DEVON EDGE
Eagle Farm Race 7 – 6. REIZARB
Canterbury Race 6 – 1. DEUTSCHE
Canterbury Race 8 – 5. TINJIRARNI
Sandown (Betfair Park) Race 4 – 1. EAU DE JOIE
Sandown (Betfair Park) Race 5 – 10. BURGDANE
The following are horses that should be $10+ and an each way bet are:
Sandown (Betfair Park) Race 3 – 2. MAZZACANO (This horse comes up against the super talent 8. ZUESTAR so need a good price and bit of luck) (4,7,8)
Sandown (Betfair Park) Race 6 – 8. ONE LUCKY LADY (2,3,13,14)
Eagle Farm Race 2 – 4. MONTEFALCO
If these horses start shorter than $10 then I would proceed with caution. It realistically should be much higher but I they’re a good chance for a rough result today. I have also included some numbers if you would like to use in multiples in the Sandown races in brackets.
Good Luck and Good Punting
EDIT: SCRATCHINGS
Sandown R3 2. MAZZACANO – Scratched!
July 28th – Golf (Running Total -$60)
Well so close but yet so far in the golf this week.
Firstly in the Champions Tour we had Bernard Langer to win The Seniors Open Championship and thought we were gone after shooting a first round 2 over. He rallied in the next 2 rounds to be within firing distance of the lead and got to within a shot at one stage before bogeying the 17th and missing out on the playoff by 1 stroke.
In the European Tour we were never in the hunt with Danny Willet taking till the final round to show what he’s got finishing in 12th while Peter Hansen was never in the running 53rd
In the PGA Tour we were right in the hunt with Mike Weir (18th), Camillo Vilegas (13th) and Retief Goosen (1st) in handy positions on leaderboard going into the final round. Weir and Vilegas finished in 24th while unfortunately Goosen lead till the back nine on the final day then fought back after headed forcing a playoff with an eagle on the 18th hole. He then lost on the 2nd playoff hole to Aussie Nathan Green who won his first PGA tournament. I’m sure those who were able to watch the live feed would have layed Goosen when in a dominate position in the final round. I missed it as i fell asleep after a huge week with the Golf and Tour taking it out of me (Back to normal sleep pattern now)
July 28th – Horse Racing (Running Total +$3239)
Hard day for punters and I suggest not getting too serious today.
Kyneton (Heavy 9)is tough all over and any one of a number of horses could win each race. If you really want to play have a look at horses around the $6 – $12 mark for value.
Taree (Dead 5) has been a real bogey track for me so i am a little cautious about betting there. I would be looking at horses who have done well at the track before.
Mackay (Good 3) looks the best track to bet on and although i could only find one stand out bet i think there will be some more action going on here. SMS subscribers stand by for Late Mail.
The Bets for today
2.30pm Kyneton Race 6 – 9. JENZAN
3.20pm Mackay Race 6 – 6. DUBAIONE
One more horse that should be $10+ is:
2.00pm Kyneton 5 – 1. BLOW ME AWAY.
If this horse starts shorter than that then i would proceed with caution. It realistically should be much higher but i think a good chance for a blow out today.
LATE MAIL:
4.30pm Kyneton Race 10 – 7. ALLTALKNOACTION
Results
We had the Late Mail ALLTALKNOACTION ($1.71) win with a leg in the air and will be one to follow in the spring. Jenzan was disappointing after getting a good run. Dubaione was a late scratching and BLOW ME AWAY ($10/$3.47) ran a very strong 2nd paying handsomely for the place and good each way value.
Loss on the day of $21
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