July 3rd (Moto GP Selections)
The Moto GP moves to the USA this week to the great circuit Laguna Seca. Last year Valentino Rossi managed a fine win over Casey Stoner but was pushed all the way by the young champion.
This week Stoner remains under an illness cloud. His last two races have ended up with him unable to push on to challenge the Fiat Yamaha of Rossi and Jorge Lorenzo. Stoner says he is feeling better and knows what symptoms to watch out for – but will he be able to really give it his all?
That said, the betting isn’t easy. We don’t like anything but Rossi if Stoner isn’t 100%. A clear indication is practice and qualifying. Rossi is able to coast through practice and qualifying and rely on his natural/freakish skills to be able to put in massive performances in the race. With Free Practice 1 (FP1) over, Rossi is on top and dominating which looks very ominous.
Our predictions:
Winner:
Rossi – 1.92 (Odds for the others: Lorenzo 4.4, Stoner 3.8)
Top 3 Rossi – 1.12, Lorenzo – 1.25, Stoner – 1.25.
Our bets:
We’ll have $100 on Rossi to win at 1.92. This isn’t a normal bet, usually we like to use some inside knowledge to get ahead and also try to trade to bet off when it comes in to really have a strong position either way – but it seems pretty clear at the moment that The Doctor is looking unstoppable, and getting odds up to $2 is generous. That said, the variables in play this weekend in terms of the uncertainty over Stoner makes it a very difficult punting weekend.
Stay tuned for further practice and qualifying updates.
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