June 25th (Moto GP)
With all the top 3 riders on equal points after the last round in Barcelona, Valentino Rossi, Casey Stoner and Jorge Lorenzo all stand a fair chance for the championship. With Stoner and Rossi already proven they have the consistency it takes to win the championship, I would give the edge to these two. Lorenzo is a real rising star and can’t be discounted, but looking at the odds Stoner at 4.60 to win the championship looks very attractive.
Casey Stoner rolled up at Assen in 2008 and utterly dominated, from the moment the bikes hit the track to the point at which they waved the chequered flag. The Australian suffered a setback last time out at Catalunya, felled by a stomach flu which robbed him of his strength in the Spanish heat and humidity, only just managing to hold onto 3rd there. He noted in his post race press conference that if he had not been sick he would most likely have had the pace to challenge the Fiat Yamaha boys Rossi and Lorenzo who finished 1 st and 2nd respectively. Given that he was all over the back of Rossi in the first part of the race this seems legitimate. The only question is, will the setup of the Ducati cause too much degradation of the tyres?
With this said, Stoner has acknowledged that he will spend the opening practice sessions at Assen looking for some more rear grip from his bike ahead of the MotoGP race on Saturday. He said the lack of traction is the only real problem he has with the bike. Given Stoner’s uncanny ability to set up a bike I don’t think he will have any trouble. Look for his results in practice and his comments afterwards to adjust any betting.
Stoner has picked up points at his least favoured tracks this season including Jerez, Le Mans and Mugello, now we are entering a string of tracks which are more suited to the Aussie, beginning with Assen. With that said Assen is a favourite among many riders including Yamaha’s Lorenzo and Rossi as well, with both having impressive results here over the years.
The forecast is for showers on Saturday which may throw a spanner into the works. Stoner is still very good in the wet however if it does rain a value bet on Marco Melandri will be on the cards. Marco stands absolutely no chance in the dry but he is a demon in the wet, especially the intermediate stage between dry and full wets, and he will out perform his largely disappointing Kawasaki should the heavens open. A top 3 or top 6 bet early while hoping for rain may be on.
With all that I give the edge to Stoner in this race and early odds of 4.90 make him a good value bet. With a good early practice and expected strong qualifying performance I would think these odds will drop, so there may well be an opportunity to lay him before the race starts, cover our bets, and still make a good margin.
So the bet is $200 on Stoner at $4.90 to win and we may lay the bet off before the start of the race if he is flying in qualifying or rain is expected. Stay Tuned!
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