Formula 1 Update – Running Total $1064
An unfortunate weekend for us with Jarno Trulli breaking his car after about 4 corners of the race and subsequently not being able to finish costing us our little wager. Interestingly, although Raikkonen won the race, he was arguable not the fastest car with Fisichella right behing him the whole way. If Fisi would’ve been able to spare a little fuel and pit just one lap after the Ferrari he surely would’ve managed a win.
Notably, this is the first weekend where we haven’t been able to profit from the Formula 1 so our running total at $1064 remains very healthy – we look to Monza in a few weeks times for the next race.
Formula 1 – Race Bets
Well, you could’ve turned our and everyone elses qualifying predictions on their head and you might’ve got within a hope in hell of picking the result of qualifying. Force India on top, Jensen Button starting in 14th, Hamilton not making the top 10 – madness. Our little bet on Vettel didn’t get far as the Red Bulls didn’t have much pace with race fuel on board – very unexpected.
With the form guide out the window we have a great chance to make big money by picking a winner for the race – but picking a winner isn’t going to be easy. The betting says Kimi Raikkonen is the best chance – he’ll be hoping to fly off the line using KERS and then use his added fuel to stay ahead. But can he really do it? He starts from 6th, even making two or three more places he’ll be behind Trulli and Heidfeld who have just as much fuel on board. I think it’s a case of people getting on a former world champion in a Ferrari than true form. I’ve no doubt he’ll be on the podium should he get to race his race.
No one reckons Fisichella has a chance despite starting from pole. I’m inclined to agree – he’s just too short on fuel. Barrichello is the other hope for a win. The Brazilian will pit early on lap 10, but the pundits all agree the field will have spread out a lot by then, especially as many of the cars outside the top ten have put a lot of fuel in. He pits too early for my liking though.
I really think Toyota are the real deal this weekend. Trulli starts from second with enough fuel to ensure he is a real contender. Barrichello is the other chance. Raik, Trulli and Barra will be fighting for the win – and they all have a good chance.
As I’ve already mentioned, Raikkonen isn’t value – but Trulli at $4.8 is. I think we can invest $50 at $4.8 on him and know we are getting value for the really good chance he has. If you’re a fan of the Betfair back/lay system I’d strongly recommend taking him now and as the race progresses as expected, you can lay him off for a free bet.
It will be a really exciting race at a fantastic venue for the cars to go around – even neutrals will enjoy the spectacle at Spa!
August 30th – Golf (Running Total +$2256)
I wasn’t going to have a bet in the European Tour this week as i had little information about the course they were playing on and thought it was a pretty open affair. However, after watching a few rounds i think there is some excellent value going into the final round in a few hours time.
Soren Hansen has been a bit inconsistant in his 3 rounds with plenty of birdies and bogeys, however, he still finds himself right in the mix on the final day only 2 shots off the leaders. He is clearly the best player in the Top Ten golfers ranked 49th in the world with his nearest rival 157th (Peter Hedblom) and many above 200 and 400. Although he has been having some bogeys which i usually steer clear of but he started to show in his last round he has found comfort on the greens with only 28 putts. If he manages to strike his irons as i know he can he could really run away with the trophy. I think he represents excellent value at over $5 with all bookmakers
Our bet
$200 on Soren Hansen to win the Johnny Walker Championship at $5.50 on Betfair
August 29th – Weekend Ratings Review
What a day for the ratings. I thought it was the day we were going to crack the Big 6 but a few blow outs in the end meant everyone misses out. I’ve been trying to chase up whether it was a jackpot or not but haven’t heard (Dividend was $1million). I really think we are getting very close to claiming the big prize.
We scooped 2 quaddies at Doomben and Morphettville and 22 winners from 32 races over all venues. Doomben was the most succesfull with 7 from 8 races while once again we were solid at Morphettville with 6 from 8.
The Wrap Up
Rosehill
5 winners from the 8 races including two top rated paying $2.90 and $4.60.
3 Triffecta’s paying $185, $214 and $176 and 2 First Four’s paying $478 and $763
Caulfield
4 winners from the 8 races including 3 top rated paying $2.70, $5.50 and $4.20
Morphettville
6 winners from 8 races with three top rated horses paying $5.00, $2.50 and $4.00
2 Triffecta’s paying $42 and $35 and 2 First Four’s paying $56 and $117
Quaddie paying $314 (Top, Top, 3rd, Top)
Doomben
7 winners from 8 race with one top rated horse paying $2.30
3 Triffecta’s paying $117, $107 and $57 and 2 First Four’s paying $303 and $168
Quaddie paying $750 (3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd)
Belgium GP – Pre-Qualifying
The three main chances for qualifying look to be Webber, Vettel and Hamilton. The Red Bulls are quick, Hamilton not as quick but has KERS so will be tough to split. As for the others, the Brawns can’t get heat into their tyres, Toyota are pacy, whilst Ferrari is there or thereabouts. BMW looked to be doing a bit of showboating at the end of prac 3.
Webber lost out in final practice as he required an engine change – the usual procedure is to run an old engine on Friday and then stick in a brand spanker Saturday morning – but his Renault engine had some sort of problem and so he needed a change – cutting his running down to just 3 laps. This had put a rather large dent in his chances, and so we’re probably better off to consider Vettel or Hamilton as the best chance for pole.
Not overly confident for anyone to stand out and stick their car on pole, but Vettel should have the better running and if doing so looks to go right on with it for the race. $50 on him for the Qualifying/Race double at $8.2 or you can take just Qualifying at around $4.2 on Betfair.
Further updates before the race!
August 29th – AFL (Running Total +$488)
Couple of Bets to look at this week
$50 on MOONEY Cameron (GEEL) 4.00 Leading Goalscorer ( Geelong just have to win to get their season back on track and Mooney will be sent the ball all day)
$100 on ABLETT Gary (GEEL) 2.20 Most Disposals A ( Because Geelong need some form, Ablett will be everywhere today)
$100 on SWAN Dane (COLL) 3.00 Most Disposals A (Our old friend and Brownlow special is at those backable odds again)
$200 on Over 185.5 Points 1.85 Carlton vs Adelaide ( This will be a hell of a game. It also throws up the dual for most goals between the man going for the Coleman Medal, Brendan Fevola- leading by 6 from Jonathon Brown- and the man who has been is great form Jason Porplyzia. Fev is at $2.10 and Porplyzia at $6. Too close to split)
Formula 1 – Belgium GP – Pre-Race Write up (Running Total $1164)
Another great weekend for Formula 1 with a back to back weekend after Valencia and we’re at Spa this weekend for a more traditional race at one of the surviving old circuits. Spa is a long and high average speed track with some great sweeping corners and the drivers either love it or hate it.
The weather looks to be cold and rainy, it’s a misty cool track traditionally – the weather forecast seems to be rain over Friday and Saturday and then clearing Saturday which means a possible wet qualifying. If we look back over this year, Red Bull have enjoyed cooler conditions and have done well in the wet, whilst Brawn like the hotter temperatures, but Brawn have apparently fixed their cold tyre problems for the next races. This paints a fairly clear picture for us – but it is more complicated than that with the betting as we must include Lewis Hamilton and McLaren in the calculations for a winner as the KERS system will no doubt be useful, and Ferrari have been handy here in the past.
As always we will review the early practice sessions before locking in our bets, but at the moment our preferences are towards Mark Webber for the win at $4.8 (I’d prefer longer odds frankly) over someone like Vettel at $4 who is having engine problems and won’t be able to get the most out of his car. We will await the Brawn performance before looking too closely at Barrichello or Button who are at $14 and $11 respectively and could offer value.
More updates throughout the F1 weekend…
August 27th – Golf (Running Total +$2256)
I’m going to make this very simple this week. we have a new course at The Barclays and it looks set to require someone who has an all-around game and deadly with a flat stick. That points to one man. TIGER!
I know i ate some humble pie the other week when i declared Tiger a given for the win when leading by 4 shots at the half way stage. I certainly wasn’t the only one though and in fact know of an irish bookmaker (Paddy Power) who paid out the Tiger win at the same stage and ended up losing over $2 million!! Check out the story here
However, that would have just made the man angry and i can’t see him getting beaten this week.
After our brilliant win last week by Simon Dyson we will load up on the result here with a $300 bet at $3.05 courtesy of Betfair.
just for a bit of fun too we’ll have a side bet of $30 on Brandt Snedeker to win without Woods in the market currently $55 on Betfair. He has started to return to the form that saw him perform very well last season and am expecting a good finish to the year.
August 27th – Rugby League (Running Total +$1484)
We have a few early bets in the NRL this week as i feel there are a couple of markets a little bit off. For this i have gone to Sportsbet as they offer some great multi-betting incentives plus decent odds. *Also if you haven’t already joined you get $50 free for signing up with no deposit required (Why not use it for this multi??)
First we look at Friday nights game where the Brisbane Broncos take on their little brothers the North Queensland Cowboys and at first glance many would say this will be a tight tussle with plenty of passion. However, after last weekend the tables turned and the Cowboys finals chances have taken a huge hit while the Broncos can all but secure a spot with a good win here. Add the doubt surrounding Matt Bowen and the Broncos look to be good things on paper. I am thinking the $1.91 minus 6.5 points start looks very generous.
Second game I look at is the Melbourne Storm against the Sydney Roosters. Again the Storm started to show signs of a recovery with a game performance against Manly. Greg Inglis back in the team after being cleared to play and they should go points crazy. Meanwhile the Rooster were ordinary at best against the Dogs who barely got out of second gear winning by over 20 points. The 22.5 points head start seems like a lot but i wouldn’t be surprised to see that gone by half time.
The third game i like is the Manly Sea Eagles against the Cronulla Sharks. Manly loomed as strong premiership contenders a number of weeks ago after beating the dogs and getting on a roll but recent weeks have said to me they are a little off their game again and i think the addition of Brett Stewart after so long out of the game might disrupt their backline which has been going well in recent weeks. Jamie Lyon is also out with injury this week and will be a huge loss. Meanwhile the Sharks have really only been “ordinary” in a couple of games and for most of the time have competed against all teams but lacked that bit of class to win games. They rarely get blown away and the 23.5 points start offered by Sportsbet is ridiculous.
So my bets are
$200 on the Broncos -6.5 points start against the Cowboys at $1.91
$200 on the Storm -22.5 points start against the Roosters at $1.91
$100 on the Sharks +23.5 points start against the Sea Eagles at $1.91
$100 on the multi of all 3 results at $6.97
August 27th – Horse Racing (Running Total +$4179)
Our streak continues with 1 winner from 2 again yesterday with SHUFFLE THE CASH winning giving us a small profit on the day.
The TopPunter Team has decided to release todays early mail to everyone as all our customers have already had the opportunity to get the best early odds.
2 Bets today:
4.48pm – Mornington Race 8 – 11. MAROTTA
4.54pm – Ipswich Race 8 – 3. WILD WILBUR (Drawn a little wider than I’d hoped so we’ll wait for a price on this one before confirming)
Results
Marotta ran a game race on the wrong part of the track running 4th while WILD WILBUR kept our streak going with a nice win paying $2.54 for our 4th successive winning day.
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