Saturday September 26th Racing – Review of Bets and Preview of this Weekend
Our TopPunter Tip of the Day got up on Saturday as MADAME PEDRILLE held on to win. The early mail to subscribers also did well with a number of reasonably priced seconds getting up.
The weekend ratings continued their success. The ratings picked the Quaddie at both Morphettville (paid $1567) and Doomben (paid $593.20) and we got close at Randwick with two seconds pulling us up. Those are just the NSW Tab prices – you’ll do better on the Quaddie markets on IASBet or SportsBet. You could’ve also had four First Fours, including a $565 payer, and the other exotics did well with plenty of quinellas or trifectas everywhere. The ratings also picked 18 winners from 24 races.
As always if you are looking for success across the board all the way up to the big paying Quaddies or the Big6 for a huge win you can’t look further than the TopPunter Weekend Ratings.
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This weekend is another cracking weekend racing as it always is in October.
Randwick has a huge meeting with four Group I races including the time-honoured Epsom and Metropolitan Handicaps as the headline acts. The Flight Stakes as well as the Spring Champion Stakes are champion Group I races and really boost the day with strong support races. Rothesay looks very hard to beat in the Roman Consul Stakes, while Black Piranha, Manhattan Rain, O’Lonhro and Rangirangdoo fight out what looks to be a thrilling Epsom. The Metropolitan sees Mr Clangtastic look to continue his form against Zavite, Obama, and Voice Coach.
Flemington warms up with Turnbull Stakes day. It has been a good guide to the major races of the spring in the past few years with multiple winners of the Turnbull Stakes going on to score in either the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate or the big one, the Melbourne Cup. El Segundo lines up as well as Predatory Pricer and Red Lord.
Looking forward to it – make sure you sign up with one of Australia’s Premier Horse Racing Ratings Services to get the most out of your bet – it’s free for a month!
AFL Season Review +$726
We started our AFL tipping on July 17th with our guest expert tipster coming on board to provide tips for the TopPunter subscribers. As the season progressed we included both match betting and betting on individuals for most disposals and most goals for some good results. We had a lot of success out of Dane Swan for most possessions and had our biggest win of the season backing Geelong at $4.10 a few weeks out from the Grand Final to win. Our worst result was in the Brownlow Medals after backing the ignored by selectors Dane Swan as the brilliance of Gary Ablett towards the end of the season saw him really get away from the pack.
Having fine-tuned our tipping with our expert during the season we produced an overall profit of $726 which is a good result for the final rounds of the season that included a few upsets. We hope you have enjoyed this seasons tips and made the most of some of our bets bets. The 2010 season holds a lot of promise and we look forward to doing it all again with you.
Formula 1 – Singapore GP – Race Bet – Running Tally: +$996
Night racing at the Formula 1 takes place in Singapore this weekend, with the full circus of politics, foul-play and the on course action taking place with the Renault team narrowly escaping a huge fine or an outright ban for purposely crashing out Nelson Piquet in Singapore ‘08.
In the racing action, the form guide leading up to the event spoke of a Brawn romp in the street conditions, with McLaren and Ferrari close behind. The early practice pace up until last year in F1 was very deceptive. Now, due to the testing bans and shorter times for teams to get a good set-up means that the practice sessions on Friday and Saturday are now a real form-book – and once again the predictions have been turned on their head.
Red Bull have come to Singapore with a new aero upgrade including an updated front wing, and it seems to have worked for the team, who were very unlucky not to be on pole after their hot laps in qualifying were halted due to a crash by Barrichello. That allowed Lewis Hamilton to stick his car on pole. With qualifying fuel weights released, he has more fuel on board allowing him more laps than his rivals, meaning it is his race to lose from the front.
That said, Singapore is a tricky circuit with a very slippery track anywhere outside the racing line, and we’ve already seen a few crashes during practice. This makes a crash during the race and the ensuing safety car to mix up pit stops very very likely. All this means it’s no sure thing for Hamilton to win, and I nearly choked when looking at how short he was on Betfair! Punters have backed him to within an inch of his life to $1.68, which in Formula 1 is way too short.
This means we will be putting our first lay on the Formula 1 this year. For an outlay of $68 we can win $100 if anyone but Lewis Hamilton wins. While this is a risky bet, we are taking the value from the odds available, and means we’ll be cheering on a big crash and the chasing pack of Vettel, Rosberg and Webber. The Singapore GP under 1500 2000W lights is great watching, let’s hope the race delivers!
Update:
No good for us with Hamilton holding on as Vettel and Rosberg shot themselves in the foot trying too hard to get past Hamilton. There was the predicted safety car (a safety car paid $1.30 too, good price for a sure thing!) but it happened just at the wrong time for anyone to get past Hamilton. An unlucky run for us, but we can be safe knowing we had the right bet on at the odds on Betfair.
September 26th – Horse Racing
I have to keep my selections for our managed fund and paying subscribers in recent times. However, i have decided today to post the TopPunter Tip of the Day as our customers have already had plenty of time to get on.
Randwick Race 8 – 2. MADAME PEDRILLE
Chris Munce will get a great ride here with a beautiful barrier draw (3). Madame Pedrille only needs to see daylight and will be steaming home. I’m keeping a close eye on the track as a few winners have come down the middle of the track so i hope that doesn’t affect us in the long run.
September 23rd – Golf (Running Total +$1906)
This weekend brings about the end to the Fedex Playoffs and there is as big a certainty in golf as you will see. I know i won’t be alone and i’d love to give you some reason not to take the obvious but TIGER WOODS appears on all counts to be the bet of the season. Let me tell you why.
Tiger has stated that this has been one of his best seasons and although he hasn’t won a major its hard to argue with him. He’s won 6 out of 16 tournaments he has competed in and also come second 2 times. He won the BMW Championship at Cog Hill last week by 8 shots and did it in a canter. He has also won this tournament on this course 2 times plus been runner-up a further 3 times. In fact his last 3 results have been second, second and first respectively.
If you need anymore convincing then you are best sticking to the (Without Woods) options available at most betting agencies. I’d probably lean towards players like Jim Furyk and Zach Johnson who don’t seem to get ruffled when Tiger is lengths in front. Furyk especially will be happy to take 2nd place.
Our bet is $300 on TIGER WOODS to win the Tour Championship at $2.32 on Betfair
September 22nd – Rugby League (Running Total +$1165)
I did get a few emails asking my opinion on last weekend’s games and I gladly gave them out. I didn’t post anything as I felt the Parramatta game was almost a foregone conclusion but the price wasn’t there to bet and I felt the Dragons and Broncos was a lottery and I wouldn’t want to have swayed anyone in either way.
To be honest a week has gone by and not much has changed. However, I have some interesting thoughts on the Parramatta vs Bulldogs game. As always I welcome return emails giving you me your opinion. I am always interested to hear other people’s opinions any why. With knowledge comes fortune!
Firstly we’ll look at the Melbourne Storm ($1.43) vs Brisbane Broncos ($3.30) game to be held on Saturday Night in Melbourne.
The odds tell you that this is all but a foregone conclusion and I’m sorry to say that I can’t really sway you against that. Melbourne have a formidable record at Etihad Stadium lead by Billy Slater who has 3 hatricks (Including 1 four try haul) at the ground and the team always seems to play well when he is on fire. Greg Inglis also showed us why he is so important a fortnight ago when dominating the Sea Eagles out wide.
The price is again a little skinny for me to be jumping on board but when you consider that Brisbane, who would have been doing it tough anyway, are now without their halfback it is all but impossible to see them getting home. I’d expect Tonie Carroll to play 5/8 pushing Darren Lockyer to half back. This move would be designed to tighten the Storms attack with Carroll targeting Smith and Slater in a bid to shut them down before they get any momentum. The one area the Broncos should have an advantage is in the forward. Dave Taylor has been in devastating form and he carried a few of the other big guys along with him. If they can get on top of the Storm they could limit the effectiveness of Slater.
In the other game we have Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.08) vs Parramatta Eels ($1.94) and this is built to be a cracker.
I really do feel that this one could come down to the bounce of the ball. Parramatta have been on a wave of form for a long time now and while it’s hard to see it running out that is always a strong possibility. The Bulldogs on the other hand had the tragic news when Brett Kimmorley fractured his cheekbone only a month ago but the dogs stuck together for a gritty win over Newcastle and welcomed the week off to refresh and get some niggling injuries attended to. They will be ready and firing on all cylinders and if they aren’t blown off the park in the first half I think they would probably be able to grind the Eels down.
My interesting thought on this game is based around the NSWTAB who are set to lose a fortune if Parramatta wins the premiership as they have been heavily supported during their run into the finals. What this means is they have had to lower the price on Parramatta in this game so people don’t back them here, thus meaning if they lose they will lose on this game but their premiership money will be safe. However, if they win they will at least get some money back on the fact people are backing the Dogs. What this means is that the Bulldogs are over the odds at $2.08.
Bets for the Weekend
None so far. For the over under punters I would be thinking the Storm vs Broncos game to be low (Around the 36-40 point total). The Dogs vs Eels game could go either way. I could easily see this game in a tight grind with both teams priding themselves on tight defence, however, if one team decides to let the ball fly we could be on for a real spectacle.
September 22nd – AFL
Well it has come time to lay our Geelong bet off. We got in at the right time and secured Geelong for $200 at $4.10 (Potential Profit $820). Geelong have now come in to $1.64 which means we can get our bet back and have a freebie on the final.
As we stood to win $820 if Geelong won we can lay off our $200 bet plus another $58 (Total $258) for a liability of only $168 meaning if St Kilda wins we end up even for the season but if Geelong win we collect a huge $658.
In my opinion I do think Geelong will win after they really switched on last week and destroyed their rivals in an easy win. Meanwhile St Kilda had to work hard just to get to the final and will have had some emotion drained out of them. However, I do feel the $1.64 price is a little skinny and I certainly wouldn’t be backing them at that price. I would expect that Gary Ablett jnr will be pumped after finally receiving recognition for his efforts and will be everywhere in a bid to claim the Norm Smith Medal for best on ground in the Grand Final. For the record he is $5.80 on Betfair
September 22nd – Blackbook Update
Congratualtions to those who are following our Blackbooked horses with another impressive winner last week.
OUR VEGAS DREAM won very well at Newcastle over their Cameron / Gold Cup Carnival paying an impressive $13.90 on the TAB
I didn’t receive an email for some reason but did notice ROBERTS ROAD went roound at Warracknabeel yesterday running 3rd at $2.00 the place.
Another horse to add to our Blackbooks is:
HONEST TRUTH
Won very impressively at Newcastle on Cameron Handicap day by 7 lengths without moving a muscle. Will be heading to Sydney or even Flemington further on.
AND
KASABIAN
A really strong WA horse – likes to get out in front and hold on, looks to be a real up and comer. The odds for it are starting to get short but it’s well worth anything over evens. Look for this to go a long way.
September 20th – Golf (In-Running Bet)
Our subscribers and managed fund customers have already got on board but Rafael Cabrera-Bello is on fire today in the European Tour Austrian Open. We tipped him to our customers when a tasty $11 when still 1 shot off the lead. He has now takent he outright lead and shortened into $2.76.
Those who have backed him should now be looking to lay off but the way he is playing it is going to take something special to stop him from here.
Result
Great victory for RAFAEL CABRERA-BELLO who had a putt for the magical 59 which has never been done on the European Tour and only completed by a couple of players on the PGA Tour. This guy may be one to follow. He has shown no form this year and in fact hadn’t broken 70 for a long time. However, on close inspection i found he won every National age championship in Spain from Under 7’s through to Under 18’s. In 2008 he made 10 of 11 cuts and finished in the top 10 four times and top 20 five times so he obviously has ability. I was just happy with the way he struck the ball and didn’t seem to let anything faze him even though he did have some trouble with some bad lies just off the fairway.
Sports Bet Managed Fund increased 13% on the night!
September 16th – Golf (Running Total +$1506)
A quiet week on the golfing front with the PGA Tour have a rest week in preparation for the Fedex Playoffs Final tournament next week.
In the European Tour we have the Austrian Open which has been part of the European Tour for a number of years. There are a couple of former winners in Richard Green ($19), Marcus Brier ($21), Alex Cejka ($32) who all are a little short for my liking but i will go into a little more detail.
Richard Green unfortunately seems to be a consistant performer in the European Tour but his wins are few and far between making his price a little skinny. It is worth noting, however, that not only does he have a win here in 2007 he also came 4th in 2006 showing he appears to like the Fontana Course.
Marcus Brier is a three time winner in 2002. 2004 and 2006 and also lives just up the road from the Fontana Course. However, his form this season doesn’t really warrant the $21 price tag and even though a win wouldn’t suprise i think even if he shows some promise in the early rounds i would think his price would be fairly similar on the weekend.
Alex Cejka is a loose cannon. When he’s on he’s devastating but when he isn’t interested he can be woeful and your money can be down the drain inside the first 9 holes. $32 is a ludicris starting price for a player like this, however, if he starts well he’s well worth getting on.
Another former winner in Michael Hoey represents better value at $150 being a past winner but his form in recent times has been appalling. Maybe returning to a course where he has had success might kick start his season.
I am leaning towards those who have been consistant on the tour this year. I really like the chances of DAVID LYNN ($48) and MARTIN ERLANDSSON ($28).
David Lynn has been in solid form this year but can’t crack it for a win. I think he is a little over the odds and well worth a dabble.
Martin Erlandsson is who looks the goods as he has been in super form in 2009 especially in recent weeks where he’s finished Runner-Up at the Johnny Walker Classic and 4th in the Scandanavian Masters. He also finished 3rd here in 2008 and 9th in 2007 showing a definite confidence in the layout of the course.
Our bets are:
$50 on DAVID LYNN at $48 on Betfair
$100 on MARTIN ERLANDSSON at $28 on Betfair.
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