September 1st – AFL (Running Total +$408)
For the first weekend we don’t hit one of our specials with Ablett and Mooney narrowly going down while Dane Swan also missed out
However, we were right on the mark with the Over 185.5 points result on the Carlton vs Adelaide game with a massive 280 points scored.
All that results in a loss of -$80 on the weekend.
More Bets
I think there is some value in the Premiership and Brownlow Markets.
Firstly the Premiership market sees a very open affair and i think if you pick correctly you could make some decent profit or be able to lay your bet off after the first weekend of finals for a free bet on the winner.
The current market has St Kilda ($3.55), Geelong ($4.10), Collingwod ($5.10) and Western Bulldogs ($6.20) out of the others the only one i could possibly recommend would be Carlton ($48) purely for the reason if they can beat Brisbane at home (Who looked shaky last weekend) there price would drop dramatically at you could get a very easy lay and again a free bet.
However, the team i am looking at is Geelong. All year the Cats have done what they have needed to and seem to be suffering a little for being on top for so long. However, champion players find their groove when the big money is on the line and i would expect them to be back on their game against the Western Bulldogs who probably did no favours for themselves beating Geelong 2 weeks ago as that will only fuel the fire more.
In the Brownlow Medal there is always a short favourite, this year(and also for the past 3 years) is Gary Ablet ($3.25). for the past 3 years i have predicted Ablet to win the crown but has always fallen short in the votes suggesting that although regarded as one of the games best players his efforts and not viewed as highly by the umpires who cast the votes. This could possibly be because he is epected to perform so highly each week and if someone else performs above their standard (But still less than Ablet’s) they may recieve the top votes. Just a theory but it’s proved true for many years.
My bet is looking towards this years real star in the disposals count in Dane Swan ($6.20). He has really come of age this year and been an absolute bal magnet. The fact that he hasn’t ranked as highly as his close rivals in the market in Ablet, Chris Judd ($9.00) and Adam Goodes ($9.60) just makes his odds even more tasty. I also think there is some value in Simon Black ($18)who has been his consistant self and has always polled well in the votes suggesting he is well liked by most umpires.
My bets are:
$200 on Geelong Cats to win the AFL Premeirship at $4.10
$10 on Carlton Blues to win the AFL Premiership at $48
$100 on Dane Swan to win the Brownlow Medal at $6.20
$20 on Simon Black to win the Brownlow Medal at $18
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