September 22nd – Rugby League (Running Total +$1165)
I did get a few emails asking my opinion on last weekend’s games and I gladly gave them out. I didn’t post anything as I felt the Parramatta game was almost a foregone conclusion but the price wasn’t there to bet and I felt the Dragons and Broncos was a lottery and I wouldn’t want to have swayed anyone in either way.
To be honest a week has gone by and not much has changed. However, I have some interesting thoughts on the Parramatta vs Bulldogs game. As always I welcome return emails giving you me your opinion. I am always interested to hear other people’s opinions any why. With knowledge comes fortune!
Firstly we’ll look at the Melbourne Storm ($1.43) vs Brisbane Broncos ($3.30) game to be held on Saturday Night in Melbourne.
The odds tell you that this is all but a foregone conclusion and I’m sorry to say that I can’t really sway you against that. Melbourne have a formidable record at Etihad Stadium lead by Billy Slater who has 3 hatricks (Including 1 four try haul) at the ground and the team always seems to play well when he is on fire. Greg Inglis also showed us why he is so important a fortnight ago when dominating the Sea Eagles out wide.
The price is again a little skinny for me to be jumping on board but when you consider that Brisbane, who would have been doing it tough anyway, are now without their halfback it is all but impossible to see them getting home. I’d expect Tonie Carroll to play 5/8 pushing Darren Lockyer to half back. This move would be designed to tighten the Storms attack with Carroll targeting Smith and Slater in a bid to shut them down before they get any momentum. The one area the Broncos should have an advantage is in the forward. Dave Taylor has been in devastating form and he carried a few of the other big guys along with him. If they can get on top of the Storm they could limit the effectiveness of Slater.
In the other game we have Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.08) vs Parramatta Eels ($1.94) and this is built to be a cracker.
I really do feel that this one could come down to the bounce of the ball. Parramatta have been on a wave of form for a long time now and while it’s hard to see it running out that is always a strong possibility. The Bulldogs on the other hand had the tragic news when Brett Kimmorley fractured his cheekbone only a month ago but the dogs stuck together for a gritty win over Newcastle and welcomed the week off to refresh and get some niggling injuries attended to. They will be ready and firing on all cylinders and if they aren’t blown off the park in the first half I think they would probably be able to grind the Eels down.
My interesting thought on this game is based around the NSWTAB who are set to lose a fortune if Parramatta wins the premiership as they have been heavily supported during their run into the finals. What this means is they have had to lower the price on Parramatta in this game so people don’t back them here, thus meaning if they lose they will lose on this game but their premiership money will be safe. However, if they win they will at least get some money back on the fact people are backing the Dogs. What this means is that the Bulldogs are over the odds at $2.08.
Bets for the Weekend
None so far. For the over under punters I would be thinking the Storm vs Broncos game to be low (Around the 36-40 point total). The Dogs vs Eels game could go either way. I could easily see this game in a tight grind with both teams priding themselves on tight defence, however, if one team decides to let the ball fly we could be on for a real spectacle.
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