October 28th – Golf
Its action stations in the golf this weekend with 3 main tournaments on offer.
In the European Tour we have the Volvo World Matchplay Championship being played in Spain.
Group A
Without doubt in my mind PAUL CASEY ($15.50) should be the tournament favourite here with the easiest of draws in the round robin format coming up RETIEF GOOSEN ($13) (who has been playing ok of late) along with the erratic Anthony Kim and Scott Strange (How did he get a run?).
Tip: Lay Anthony Kim at $3.40 to win the group
Group B
Early thought may lean towards SERGIO GARCIA ($8.80) to perform well in his home country, however, i was a bit disappointed in his performance last weekend. Even though he finished in the top 5 you would expect any top 20 player playing on their home course to either win or go very close and he really never threatened on the final day. Garcia is also drawn against the very talented MARTIN KAYMER ($15) who returned from injury last weekend to finish 2nd in Spain. The group also includes my first dark horse in ROBERT ALLENBY ($24) who performed brilliantly in a well beaten Internationals team at the Presidents Cup and relishes this format. His price is a little short considering his opposition though. Final member of the group is Oliver Wilson
Tip: Lay Garcia at $2.62 in this group.
Group C
Is the hardest group to pick by far. On his day HENRICK STENSON ($10.50) is one of the finest golfers in the world but here he comes up against the rising superstar in RORY McLROY ($9.20), ANGEL CABRERA ($19) who is over the odds considering he has been playing well of late. Even the final member of the group in Simon Dyson has been in good form on the European Tour this year.
Tip: Good Luck picking a winner here.
Group D
This is the group i’m most interested in. LEE WESTWOOD ($7.80) is the favourite for the tournament and should progress through to the semi finals, however, i really like the form of one of our favourites in JEEV MILKHA SINGH ($55) and think he represents great value for the overall crown. Ross Fischer also contests this group and whilst not being in form of late could easily spark something here and finally the charismatic Camillo Vilegas rounds out a hot group which will challenge whoever gets through.
Tip: Singh is paying handsomely at $7 to win the group but i think his value is in the overall. Westwood at $2.60 is pretty handy odds considering how short he is for the overall title.
Our offical Bets are:
$20 on JEEV MILKHA SINGH to win the World Matchplay Championship at $55 (Sports Managed Fund 1% Bet)
LAY Sergio Garcia for $100 at $2.62 to win Group B (Sports Managed Fund 8% Risk)
LAY Anthony Kim for $50 at $3.40 to win Group C (Sports Managed Fund 6% Risk)
In the official European Tour event we head to Singapore for the Barclays Singapore Open. Its a white hot field here and its hard to really recommend anyone. PHIL MICKELSON ($9.40) has really been playing well lately but you’ll never see me back “lefty” at odds of this nature. Of the Asian contenders THONGCHAI JAIDEE ($42) is a little short in the odds even though he loves this course. WEN-CHONG LIANG ($110) has always played well on the asian circuit but comes up against a much classer field than he is used to. JYOTI RANDAWA ($220) is huge odds even though he hasn’t played well of late. He is the sort of player that isnt affected by the opponent just himself. Could easily shoot 8 under in any round on any course then follow it up with an 8 over.
Official Bets:
$10 on JYOTI RANDAWA at $220 to win the Singapore Open (Sports Managed Fund 1% Bet)
In the PGA Tour we have the Viking Classic at Annadale and i think the tournament is a nightmare to pick. A plethera or players have good knowledge and records at the course but no one stands out so i’m not going to mention any of the favourites. If i was desperate to have a bet i’d want big odds and would look to the likes of VAUGHAN TAYLOR ($130), RICKY BARNES ($260), BRAD ADAMONIS ($350) or JAY WILLIAMSON ($610).
Official Bets:
No Chance of a bet here. At least not yet.
October 20th – Cox Plate Preview
This Saturday brings about one of my favourite days of racing. Although Derby Day has the best fields in the year, the Cox Plate has something special about it. For anyone wanting to ever head to Melbourne for the Spring Carnival i would recommend the Cox Plate as my number one option. The charm of the tight and distinctive Mooney Valley circuit just adds to that.
Anyways to the race. Our early preview was centred around a couple of chances that are now heavily focused on the Melbourne Cup so it would be hard to see them winning now. We tipped in Maldivian who unluckily got injured and out for the season. We did tip that WHOBEGOTYOU ($3) would be the strong favourite and although i still think it deserves to be its price has blown after drawing a wide barrier (Not good at most tracks but even worse at Mooney Valley). Efficient was also a mention as he loves this track but has found his legs early this preperation with a brilliant win a few weeks ago and has been rested ready for the big Cup. EL SEGUNDO ($15) would no doubt have been targetting for this race and after some really strong races early in his preperation the connections have been very coy letting him only run home in the final 200m each race. I am feeling very strong about his chances in this one and is representing great odds. SPEED GIFTED ($10) is another low priced runner here who is now heavily in the running for the Melbourne Cup and its hard to see him busting his gut here. Again HEART OF DREAMS ($6.00) finds itself high in the betting but again i can’t see it beating this class of horse. In each race it has finished strongly but always funds another horse too strong and i would expect to continue with the same pattern. The owner of SIR SLICK ($201) has been talking up the chances of this massive long shot but to be honest i’d feel very comfortable laying him even at that price. The last horse i’m keen on is ZIPPING ($17) who has been very quiet this preparation. I was a big fan of this horse and have backed it for 2 years in a row expecting it to win a Melbourne Cup but it just couldn’t quite do it. Last year the changed its training and it targetted this race and flew home to just get pipped on the post. Its price is too good to refuse here.
Our Tips are: I’d be looking at backing both EL SEGUNDO and ZIPPING each way and a box triffecta of those 2 along with WHOBEGOTYOU and HEART OF DREAMS
October 21st – Blackbooker Update
THanks for all the emails for those who have been following the blackbookers with great success. Without doubt our best efforts up till now had been with ROBERTS ROAD who won a 3 races at very tasty odds, however, he is starting to be out shone by OUR VEGAS DREAM.
Since we tipped you into OUR VEGAS DREAM back in early August after he was given a tough ride at Scone but still showed potential. His starts since then have gone:
1st – Scone ($3.20) – Won by 4 1/2 lengths
6th – Randwick ($4.00) – Was beaten by only 1 and 1/2 lengths
1st – Newcastle ($15) – Won by 3/4 length
2nd – Warrick Farm ($2.15) – Beaten 2 and 1/2 lengths on a heavy track
1st – Canterbury ($7.50) – Won today again
Feel free to add these blackbooked horses to your own blackbooks which can be registered for free on www.racenet.com.au
October 21st – Golf and Sports Update
Another solid day on the horses today with a win and a 2nd giving us a small profit for the managed fund and continuing the great streak we are on in the past month.
We have a great line up of golf bets again this week and are expecting more strong performances. To get this weeks bets sign up to the FREE month.
October 21st – Horse Racing (Geelong Cup)
With the Spring Carnival upon us and a great days racing with the Geelong Cup I have decided to post today’s emailed selections, that was sent to all subscribers earlier this morning, on the website for all the punters. To receive these selections along with all the top sports picks before anyone else sign up for a FREE month trial.
Great days racing for a Wednesday with good fields in Canterbury along with one of the great lead in races for the Melbourne Cup in the Geelong Cup. Geelong also hosts the Geelong Classic which is a great race also.
Our Early Mail tips are:
2.45pm – Geelong Race 6 – 10. FLYING TESSIE (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
3.00pm – Canterbury Race 4 – 2. MY COOKIE MONSTER (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
3.37pm – Canterbury Race 5 – 7. GANGITANO (Horse Managed Fund 4% Win)
In the Geelong Classic its an open race but i do like the look of the bottom weight WELL ROUNDED. In the Geelong Cup we tend to find te internationals doing well in recent times. I’ve never heard of the favourite BALSALTIKO and it has drawn wide, Bart Cummings trained DAANDAD has been crunched in betting after getting a run from the emergency position. In think ZACROONA is a the value of the field at around $15.
Good Luck and Good Racing
Formula 1 -Brazil – Race Running Total: +$1221
It will be an interesting race as a number of cars have lost out due to the rain.
Rain is still forecast for tomorrow and it’s expected for the circuit to at least get a few showers. With fuel weights released, Webber in second place has done the best out of the front runners and looks set to have a good day up front with more fuel than Barrichello in front of him. If it’s dry, the runners at the back will push through. If it’s rain, the front-runners will streak away.
All things being equal, I’d fully expect Webber to win at Brazil, but if he didn’t have bad luck he’d have no luck at all so Barrichello has been backed in to win at $2.66, while Webber is at $3. The bets will be similar to qualifying where we won’t go for broke but have a backup in mind to cover ourselves.
Early mail: We’ll LAY Barrichello at $2.74 and try to win $100 by risking $174, and BACK Webber at $3 and put $50 on him.
Late mail: I’d leave your own bet closer to the race and look at the weather to decide your options, it might just be worth a speculative dollar on Vettel (now at $28) to storm through the pack in the dry.
Result: Huge win for us with Webber in stunning form to bring home a very comfortable win meaning our lay bet on Barrichello was also a good bet.
Total wins for the weekend: $225 bringing our running total to $1221 – huge profits for a mid-season start to the official bets!
Formula 1 – Brazil – Qualifying
We head to Brazil this week in the Formula 1 to a cold wet track with rain expected during qualifying and the race itself. This makes the whole show a bit of a lottery as a driver might be able to get a speedy lap in during the dry. That said, Red Bull really look the pick of the weekend, with proven cold conditions form and more importantly proven wet form. They’ve also done the job well in the dry prac sessions thus far.
I’d almost prefer Mark Webber in these conditions but Sebestian Vettel will have the whole team including Webber behind him to try and pull off a miraculous championship victory. I think he has a great chance to win the race overall, but qualifying in particular will be a total lottery – Webber, I think, will be pushing for pole without too much regard for whatever the other side of the garage is doing. If Red Bull need him to coast to give the victory to Vettel, then that’s what will happen at the end of the day.
This gives you two options. With Vettel so skinny in qualifying you can take the smart money with Betfair and lay Vettel at $3.05. This means to win $50 we have to risk $102.50. The other option you have is to back Webber - he’s at $8, so we can bet $25 on him to win $175.
Officially we’ll record both bets as one probably means the other will happen, but we’re covering ourselves a little which is ideal.
Result: An epic chaotic and wet qualifying session with many ups and downs – our ‘lay’ man Vettel was knocked out in Q1 which meant a healthy collect, while we were about as close as you can be to a big win with Webber in P2 and he looked the goods in the Red Bull before Barrichello got on pole. Overall we won $50 but lost our bet of $25 = $25 win.
October 17th – Soccer / Football
Fulham vs Hull City
October 19, 2009
On paper, it doesn’t look like the best of starts to the season for Fulham. Occupying fifteenth place in the table, the Cottagers have lost two of their three matches at home, although closer inspection reveals defeats against Chelsea and Arsenal. The latter of these was extremely unfortunate, with Roy Hodgson’s team bossing the Gunners throughout the game and a repeat performance against Hull should see the home side bank all three points.
While Fulham are playing Roma on Thursday, the manager will be demanding total focus against a team who appear to be there for the taking. Hull may have shown a reasonable degree of improvement to beat Wigan 2-1 a fortnight ago, although there’s still a big question mark over their quality this season. Defensively, they look unsteady without Michael Turner at the back and it’s hard to see former Cottager midfielder Jimmy Bullard making too much of an impression on his return from injury. Instead, we should expect Danny Murphy and Dickson Etuhu to control the midfield area and create enough chances for Andy Johnson and Bobby Zamora to land Fulham victory.
$200 on Fulham win $1.72 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
Cardiff City vs Crystal Palace
October 17, 2009
It’s been a bizarre start to the season for Cardiff, who came out of the traps flying to win five of their first six matches.
Their next six matches saw them lose five from six, before dishing out thumpings to Derby and Watford to get their promotion campaign back on track. Indeed, the international break came at the wrong time for the Bluebirds after scoring ten goals in total against the Rams and Hornets, although they will still be buzzing when Crystal Palace come to town. Striker Michael Chopra is scoring goals for fun this term and Joe Ledley will return from suspension to pull the strings in midfield.
The Eagles are set for a season of struggle, despite having wily manager Neil Warnock at the helm. Palace probably deserve to have more points on the board after wrongly having a goal disallowed at Bristol City this season, while their last away game saw them win at West Brom. However, this is a young team whose heads might drop if they fall a goal behind and Cardiff have already dished out 6-1 and 4-0 thrashings at their new stadium this term.
$100 on Cardiff to win at $1.85. (Sports Managed Fund 2% Bet)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Gillingham
October 17, 2009
After the Dons yielded a comfortable 1-0 win last weekend, there’s no reason to desert them this Saturday when Gillingham roll into town. It’s now been three straight victories for Paul Ince’s team and all of them have been achieved without conceding a goal. Once again, the team appear to be destined for a top six finish, especially as they are proving so miserly in defence with just nine goals conceded in twelve matches. Jermaine Easter is among the best strikers in the division and is ably supported by Jemal Johnson and Aaron Wilbraham in attack. The Gills have been keeping their heads afloat since getting promoted through the play-offs last season, although this owes more to their excellent form at the Priestfield Stadium than any of their performances on their travels. Five defeats and one draw have been achieved from their six road matches, with a 2-0 loss at Brighton on Tuesday the latest loss.
Striker Simeon Jackson is a bright spark in attack, although it’s hard to see Paul Stimson’s team stopping MK Dons from their fourth win on the bounce.
$200 on the MK Dons win is $1.67.(Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
October 16th – Caulfield Cup Preview
Below is the preview we gave of the Caulfield Cup a few weeks ago along with our early mail tips.
Saturday 17th brings the Caulfield Cup to town and i can’t think of a harder day to punt than this. Traditionally the Cup itself has been one of the hardest races to pick and the rest of the day seems to follow that trend. Its probably part of the reason i hate betting at Caulfield and am always on my guard when tipping there. The favourite for the race will be the internationally trained (Luca Cumani) CIMA DE TRIOMPHE ($8) and you’d be hard pressed not to think it’s a decent chance. The internationals have usually faired well at Caulfield mostly due tot he fact they prefer the long sustained runs to the finish rather than the fast sprints of alot of the best aussie gallopers. Caulfield suits those who turn it on early and get to the straight first or close behind. Most of you know i have been a fan of MASTER O’REILLY ($15) and i do think he will take out either this race or the Melbourne Cup. DAFFODIL has been carving up the wins in NZ but will be hard pressed winning here unless ridden for luck on the inside. ALLEZ WONDER ($11) shortens into a crazy price after winning last weekend. Too short for me. PREDATORY PRICER ($8.50) has been very consistant this season and is hard to fault but for some reason has never got on the right side for me. I will definitely have both the Bart Cummings trained horses in VIEWED and ROMAN EMPEROR who have been in good form and Bart has been quietly confident about his chances in the big ones this year especially with the Emperor.
Tip: Master O’Reilly each way with a box triffecta of Master O’Reilly, Cima de Triomphe, Viewed, Roman Emperor, Ready to Lift and Shocking ($60 for 50%)
Sportsbet Promotion
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