October 1st – Golf (Running Total – $1606)
This weekend sees one of the most popular events on the European Tour with the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. This event sees the professionals teeing up with celebrities over 3 different courses and I have always found this to be a great betting event. In the end you may back 3 or 4 guys but so often I have found a winner. The reason for this is that invariably one of the 3 courses played (St Andrews, Kingsbarns and Carnoustie) one plays much easier and one plays much harder. If you follow the players and which order they will each course you can get some great value.
That said I won’t be betting in the first round just to get a look at the course and weather conditions. The players who I’m looking at closely are ROSS FISHER($17.50), MIGUEL ANGEL JIMENIZ($60) and NICK DOUGHERTY ($85). Players who are out of form but have a good record here are CHARL SCHWATZEL ($80) and ALVARO QUIROS ($100)
Alot of people are jumping on Padraig Harrington this week as he does have a good record over these 3 courses. However, anyone who saw him play in the Tour Championship last week would have seen he is battling the swing demons and only his supreme talent is keeping him in the mix of most tournaments. Many times over he drove wildly and was quite fortunate not to lose his ball a number of times. The $9 price on Betfair is one of the craziest things I’ve seen and I will be laying him for sure.
In the PGA Tour the big guns are taking a break as we head into the “Fall series” with the first event the Turning Stone Resort Championship. In the past this is the chance for some rookies to pick up their maiden win and I think the Rookie of the Year favourite is a good chance to do so here. MARK LEISHMAN ($55) has been in superb for in his rookie season making it all the way to the final of the FedEx Playoffs participating in the Tour Championship last week. His length off the tee will be a great asset around this course. Last year’s winner DUSTIN JOHNSON ($21) has also been in brilliant form showing he will be a real contender in the coming years and returning to the site of his first win will no doubt bring him good vibes.
I have seen some tipsters tipping players such as Brant Snedeker ($27) and Rory Sabatini ($46) and although I am a fan others you really can’t see how they could possibly win here. This course is tough and tight and although both have length on their side they both struggle to keep hold of it at times and have never really fared well on courses where the scoring closer to Even Par than 20 under. Adam Scott ($60) and Justin Rose ($46) are alot shorter in the betting than they should be with their current form and well worth laying at those prices.
Our official Bets so far
$20 on MARK LEISHMAN to win at $55 (Managed Fund 1% bet)
$30 on DUSTIN JOHNSON to win at $21 (Managed Fund 1% bet)
LAY BET – PADRAIG HARRINGTON for $50 at $9 (Liability $400) (Managed Fund Liability 20%)
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