October 15th – Golf (Running Total +$2021)
I’m a bit excited about this week’s Golf Tournaments, especially the European Tour which is the Portugal Masters. This tournament has only been running for 2 years so previous form is hard to judge, however, I am a fan of last year’s winner ALAVARO QUIROS ($36) but the price doesn’t appeal to me since his recent form isn’t as good as how he was going at the point of winning last year. I think a few of our other “old” favourites in CHARL SCHWARTZEL ($46) and GARETH MAYBIN ($100) might be right in the running here. Schwartzel was very erratic last weekend having many birdies and eagles but had plenty of bogey’s and doubles thrown in which is very likely on a course which awarded and punished the brave. This course is a little safer while still offering the birdie fest like last weekend in Madrid. Maybin is the real catch though. At $100 and on a course that is built for his game I can see him being right in the finish. He has been in and out of form all year but after finishing 4th last week we get him at the right time. He attacks pins and doesn’t mind taking on a challenge. His biggest worry is he gets a bit crazy when a chance of winning, however, if he gets in that position we can easily lay off for a massive profit. Other chances include GREGORY BOURDY ($75) (Our pick last week) and LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN ($95) who loves to come and play with the birdies are on offer.
On the PGA Tour we have the Justin Timberlake sponsored Shriner’s Hospital Open. The major players this week would have to go to those present at the Presidents Cup last weekend. TIM CLARK ($26) was by far and away the best player on the International team although his score line didn’t really show it. He regularly was partnered with a weak partner and played against some strong US opposition. My only worry with Clark will be whether that took alot out of him for this weekend. I suggest watching the start of his first round and see if you can pick up anything in his attitude (Not just his score line). I’ll post more if I pick something up. JIM FURYK ($13.50) can’t go without a mention here. He has won this tournament 3 times and has 6 top ten finishes suggesting he really likes it here. Add to that the fact he played really well in helping the US secure victory last week. Little short for me but I wouldn’t stop anyone backing him. The person I’m going with from the start this week is JEEV MILKHA SINGH ($75). Singh hit a really hot streak last year (and we were all over him) and he’s giving the feeling he’s ready to do the same again now. He’s had some really good results in the past couple of weeks (7th at Turning Stone and 17th at Wyndham) and is a class player.
Our Bets:
$20 on GARETH MAYBIN to win the Portugal Masters at $100 (Sports Bet Managed Fund 2% Bet)
$10 on CHARL SCHWARTZEL to win the Portugal Masters at $46 (Sports Bet Managed Fund 1% Bet)
$10 on LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN to win the Portugal Masters at $95 (Sports Bet Managed Fund 1% Bet)
$20 on JEEV MILKHA SINGH to win the Shriner’s Hospital Open at $75 (Sports Bet Managed Fund 2% Bet)
Good Luck and Good Punting
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October 12th – Weekend Wrap Up
Sorry there haven’t been the detailed updates for a while but i’ve been really busy and preferred to spend my time previewing form rather than updating results. Its was a great week for us while a lot of punting sites have offered no tips or lost plenty of cash we make a solid profit. Our Horse Managed Fund has increased +37% since the start of October while our Sports Managed Fund has had a great month so far with a +95% increase.
We had wins with THERACEISON ($5.50), LIGER ($9.60/$3.30), EXCELLTASTIC ($2.70), SOLCHOW ($4.80), WHOBEGOTYOU ($2.30), CENNTENIAL PARK ($4.00), ZAHA’S PRIDE ($2.80)
We were also unlucky with placings with Seasons End (2nd), Hearty Laughter (2nd), Tightrope (3rd), Ortayga (2nd), Apache Cat (2nd), BUTTIDO -we backed it each way (3rd-$2.40 place)
Amerryking (Unplaced), Denman (Unplaced)
So from 15 bets we had 7 winners (46%), 4 thirds, 2 thirds and only 2 unplaced.
In the Sports Bets we had some good wins in the golf with the USA covering the 4.5 start against the Internationals in the Presidents Cup, Ross McGowan winning comfortably on the European Tour, Luke Donald (Backing then laying) on the European Tour.
A great start to the month!!
*Note: HandiPunter’s (Ben) tips are not included in the managed fund option
October 10th – Horse Racing
No surprises here today that I’m going with:
2.40pm – Caulfield Race 5 – 6. WHOBETGOTYOU
as the TopPunter pick of the day. This horse has been super consistent against the best horses in the country and it meets a slightly weaker field here today.
October 7th – Spring Carnival Feature Horse Racing Review
A number of subscribers have asked for my thoughts on the big spring races this season and i thought it was probably easiest to post my thoughts on here.
This weekend sees the Caulfield Guineas and a couple of big questions will be answered. DENMAN ($2.80) was left infront a long way from home (against the wishes of the trainer) due to the slow pace set early. This hurt him massively down the straight due to the huge headwind aiding the swoopers. Denman will most likely be lead out by Starspangledbanner ($11) so he shouldn’t have the same problems this week. TRUSTING ($4.60) has been flying home in all his races and the move to 1600m could be the telling factor. My main concern here is the Caulfield course often doesn’t suit sweepers and he may be arriving too late. SO YOU THINK ($7.00) is in the same boat as Trusting and i think not quite up to his standard, will need to be ridden with luck after drawing wide as well. I think there is good value in both CARRARA ($16) and TICKETS ($16).
Tip: Denman for the win and Tickets each way.
During next week (Wednesday) we have the Thousand Guineas again at Caulfield and it looks to be a one sided affair with IRISH LIGHTS ($2.90) who has been in devastating form and meets a relatively weak field here. The only dark horse that does represent value is RUN FOR NAARA ($16) who impressed a few weeks ago when flying home against hot pot Denman. Of the other contenders Sister Madly ($11) has shown she’s not quite ready for this stage while Melito ($15) seems to have run out of steam hitting its peak a month ago.
Tip: Irish Lights for the win with Run for Naara to run the exacta
Saturday 17th brings the Caulfield Cup to town and i can’t think of a harder day to punt than this. Traditionally the Cup itself has been one of the hardest races to pick and the rest of the day seems to follow that trend. Its probably part of the reason i hate betting at Caulfield and am always on my guard when tipping there. The favourite for the race will be the internationally trained (Luca Cumani) CIMA DE TRIOMPHE ($8) and you’d be hard pressed not to think it’s a decent chance. The internationals have usually faired well at Caulfield mostly due tot he fact they prefer the long sustained runs to the finish rather than the fast sprints of alot of the best aussie gallopers. Caulfield suits those who turn it on early and get to the straight first or close behind. Most of you know i have been a fan of MASTER O’REILLY ($15) and i do think he will take out either this race or the Melbourne Cup. DAFFODIL has been carving up the wins in NZ but will be hard pressed winning here unless ridden for luck on the inside. ALLEZ WONDER ($11) shortens into a crazy price after winning last weekend. Too short for me. PREDATORY PRICER ($8.50) has been very consistant this season and is hard to fault but for some reason has never got on the right side for me. I will definitely have both the Bart Cummings trained horses in VIEWED and ROMAN EMPEROR who have been in good form and Bart has been quietly confident about his chances in the big ones this year especially with the Emperor.
Tip: Master O’Reilly each way with a box triffecta of Master O’Reilly, Cima de Triomphe, Viewed, Roman Emperor, Ready to Lift and Shocking ($60 for 50%)
On to Saturday 24th October and we have the most hotly contested race in the Cox Plate. WHOBEGOTYOU ($2.90) is a deserved favourite after solid performances in all its races this campaign. My only concern is they have run it hard for a long time now and may struggle when the pressure is on. MALDIVIAN ($7.50) has really impressed me this time in and will be gunning for back to back victories here. Many forget that only 2 years ago this horse was a raging favourite for the Caulfield Cup when tragically scratched when cutting itself in the barriers. He is the real deal! I’m not a fan of Predatory Pricer ($8.50) who is third in betting and will be laying the horse here. I think its a solid horse but had some fortunate results this campaign. EL SEGUNDO ($13) is a crowd favourite and another former winner here who was flying home in its early races this campaign but has tapered off in recent weeks. Keep your eye on him though as they have targetted this race from a long way out. EFFICIENT ($20) has been given the Makybe Diva campaign this time in getting some speed in its legs and showed its still got the good stuff with a brilliant win last weekend. I doubt they are looking to win this one as their big eye is on the Melbourne Cup but it wouldn’t surprise me at all. SPEED GIFTED ($19) backed up its strong claims with a great win last weekend but this may be just a bit too much of a class rise against the who’s who of racing. Kiwi champion DAFFODIL ($31)shouldn’t be forgotten either with some great victories of late.
Tip: Maldivian to control the race and hold on from all the fast finishers.
The Victoria Derby is hard to pick at the moment and usually a lot more can be told after watching the 3 yr old race on Cox Plate day at Mooney Valley. Currently SHAMOLINE WARRIER ($5.50) has been installed as favourite after a few good recent wins. Monaco Consul ($7.50) has shortened into a ridiculous price after winning and massive odds last weekend, i can’t see it myself. GATHERING ($11) would be a huge chance at decent odds if it rains. I think VIKING LEGEND ($19) is clearly over the odds and worth a couple of bucks each way early on. Out of the roughies in the race its hard to know who will get a start but i have put a little bit on TURF EXPRESS ($61) in the hope it gets a start.
Tip: Will hold off for a bit later but a couple of $$ each way on Viking Legend and Turf Express
On to the Melbourne Cup (Tuesday 3rd November) and as always its a lottery. As i stated earlier the run of EFFICIENT ($6) was super impressive and i have a lot of time ofr this horse who can run the 2 miles on her ear. The main problem is that after that win the price is ludicris and you are sure to be able to get atleast that price on the day. MASTER O’REILLY ($21) has been sneaking under the radar this year and many would forget his high placed finish in last years Cup. Well worth a dabble at those odds. Speed Gifted ($6.50) is another who shortened dramatically after its last win but i think it would need to step up more to meet these horses. DAFFODIL ($21) is another who will be suited to the distance and will have no trouble on most surfaces that may appear on race day. Bart Cummings believes ROMAN EMPEROR ($31) is his main contender for the race this year believing Viewed ($10) may not be up to a repeat performance this year. SHOCKING ($41) is young and full of beans and if it handles the occasion will be making a late surge for the big price. I have little doubt it can run the journey but you are taking a risk there. KIBBUTZ ($61) was tagged as a future winner of the race and is another who has been quiet this preperation. Keep an eye on its next run as i think they might be targetting this race. RED LORD ($81) and VISION and POWER ($101) both appeal at the huge odds.
Tip: No big bets just yet although i have taken a few $$ on Kibbutz at the big odds. Would be tempted to have a bit more on Daffodil too if it impresses in its next run.
The final 2 big races are the Crown Oaks (Thursday 5th) and the Emirates Stakes (Saturday 7th). I don’t really have a clue who will win the Emirates as you just aren’t sure this far out which horses will come through the Spring Carnival unharmed and ready to race. Always a chance to get good odds on the day there. For the Crown Oaks i keen to get a piece of RUN FOR NAARA ($11) who will be suited to the rise in distance and i think is a future star. Without doubt its main rival is again IRISH LIGHTS ($7.50) but we will no more after the Thousand Guineas. Of the rest LITTLE SURFER GIRL ($31) is very tempting at huge odds for a horse that is rising in class with every race. Definitely hitting form at the right time of the year.
Tip: Run for Naara for the win and Each Way on Little Surfer Girl
October 8th – Golf (Running Total +$1636)
This weekend the European Tour heads to the Madrid Masters and we have a few strong chances. Our subscribers have requested to have the first shot at the best odds so the tips won’t be released until after the first round has begun.
In the PGA Tour i can’t see anything but a USA victory as they take on the Internationals in the Presidents Cup. The Americans already have a strong advantage in this format with a strong history of Ryder Cup performances while for the internationals this is their only real shot. That along with the fact that many of the leading internationals are in poor form suggests that this could be a real white wash. The $1.34 price tag on the USA team is un inspiring, however, i do think there is great value in the handicap start.
Our Bet is:
$200 on USA to win -4.5 points start at $2.50
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October 7th – Horse Racing
While our FREE month and paying subscribers recieved the email with all the selections for today i am posting the TopPunter Tip of the Day.
2.00pm – Doomben Race 1 – 10. SEASONS END
This horse is still a maiden after 3 starts but showed plenty of promise in its last 2 starts to suggest it can take care of this field. Will appreciate being on top of the ground today and from a good barrier draw should get the run of the race after being stuck 3 wide the trip last start. Expect her to be coming home late.
October 5th – Final Golf Update
As the European Tour heads into its final round we couldn’t be in a better position. The 2 golfers we mentioned after the first round (Rory McIlroy and Simon Dyson) sit in equal 2nd place while the man we put the cash on at $46 after round 2 LUKE DONALD shot a brilliant 8 under 64 at Kingsbarns last night to take the outright lead by 1 shot.
This means we can now look at laying off for guaranteed profit. Our original bet was $20 at 46/1 to win so our potential profit was $900. He has now come in to $4.50 meaning we can lay off $100 (Liability $350) which means if he loses we make a profit of $80 and if he wins we make a profit of $550. WIN / WIN i love when that happens!
Those who backed Dyson and McIlroy after round 1 might be willing to roll the dice rather than lay off as you have the 3 best golfers in the first 3 spots and commonsense would say that one of them if a strong chance to win.
October 3rd – Golf Update
Thanks for all th emails from those who jumped on both Simon Dyson and Rory McIlroy after my first round preview. Once again the system of following the courses seems to have proved successfull with both golfers shooting low scores at St Andrews overnight and their prices have been halved to $11.50 and $3.45 respectfully. If anyone else out there has backed them as well i recommend laying off your orginal stake giving you a free bet for some tidy dividends on the weekend. Just another reason why having a Betfair account is critical these days.
While i feel both golfers are in commanding position (McIlroy – Tied 1st -11, Dyson – Tied 4th -10) i feel there is another smokie that could jump out of the clouds and represents great odds. LUKE DONALD shot 7 under at St Andrews last night after shooting even par at Carnoustie the day earlier. The reason that is special is he was on track for a course record before bogeying 15 and 17 on his way in. He clearly has a love for the course which as i stated yesterday is important as this is where they play the final round. He is only 4 shots off the pace yet is a whopping $46 on Betfair. He plays Kingsbarns today which has been playing very easy also and i feel he could really fly up the leaderboard. If he is within 2 or 3 of the leaders at the end of the 3rd round i’d expect his price to be quatered into the early teens.
Official Bet
$20 on Luke Donald to win at $46 (Sports Managed Fund 1% Bet)
October 2nd – Golf Update
In the European Tour things are fairly open at the Alfred Dunhill Championship after the first round. As expected 1 of the courses (Kingsbarns) played much easier than the other 2. St Andrews played the second easiest while Carnoustie found the hardest to shoot low scores.
Based on previous years this trend will continue for the next 2 rounds and players will shuffle around dramatically. Most of the punters have picked up on this andRORY McILROY has been crunched into favourite after shooting 4 under on the hardest of the 3 courses at Carnoustie. For me his price of $6.60 is a little skinny when there are so many players shooting under par. I do like the look of SIMON DYSON who also shot 4 under at Carnoustie but is a much more resonable $23.
For me i think we stay with no bets in Europe and see what unveils itself tonight as it is also good to see who plays St Andrews well as this is where the final round is played. Stay tuned for an early update tomorrow morning.
In the PGA Tour we could not have been more off the pace with Mark Leishman who never got going in the rainy conditions shooting a terrible 3 over par. However, our other selection in DUSTIN JOHNSON has faired much better shooting an opening round of 3 under to be only 3 shots off the pace to be tied for 13th.
October 1st – New Expert
Here at TopPunter we are always on the lookout for new experts in their field. It is crazy to think that one man alone could possibly be an expert at every sport so with that in mind we welcome Ben aka HandiPunter.
Ben has run his own website for many years and has joined our team due to its huge success since launching in May this year. Ben’s expertise is in Horse Racing, Golf, AFL, NRL and US Sports. We will post his tips on the website while also email out our subscribers.
Stay tuned for his first posting about the sport for the weekend. While his Saturday Race tips will be posted after the scratchings are released at 9.30am saturday morning.
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