November 28th – Horse Racing
The ratigns have gone out to our subscribers for Mooney Valley, Randwick, Newcastle and Ascot this week. If you’d like your free version just join for a FREE month on our main page.
TopPunters Best Bet of the Day is
4.50pm – Mooney Valley 7 – 1. AMBERINO (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
This is a maximum 5% bet for our managed fund who has returns of over 20% so far in November.
November 26th – Omega World Cup
This weekend sees some of the best players in the world represent their country in the Omega World Cup held in China this year.
Defending champions SWEDEN – $9.60 (Robert Karlsson and Henrik Stensen) return and will be competitive although not in great form this season and i think a great LAY bet. I expect the asian nations to feature strongly playing in China and expect big things from THAILAND – $42 (Prayad Markseang and Thongchai Jaidee), KOREA -$29 (Charlie Wi and Yong-eun Yang) and host nation CHINA – $60 (Zhang Lian-wei and Liang Wen-chong). Of the other teams i think AUSTRALIA – $16.50 (Robert Allenby and Stuart Appleby) should be very competitive with both players in good form in the past couple of weeks. I am a little put off by the short price though and may look to back them later in the tournament if in contention. IRELAND – $6.40 (Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell) are 2nd favourites for the title most likely on the back of McIlroy’s recent form. However, if anyone has watched McIlroy play he can be very erratic and only saves himself (Similar to the way Tiger plays) through sheer brilliance. This format often doesn’t suit that type of play as one of the round will require the players to take alternate shots and i don’t think McDowell is capable of riding McIlroy’s head games. Another solid LAY Bet. ENGLAND – $6.40 (Ian Poulter and Ross Fisher) are the favourites for the week and its easy to see why. Poulter returned to form last weekend while Fisher has had the best season of his career. Again the price is a little skinny for me in this format but they should be very strong. I of course like INDIA - $36 (Jeev Milkha Singh and Jyoti Randhawa) with 2 of my favourite players invloved but there price is not anything that i would be attacking with any confidence. SPAIN - $11 (Sergio Garcia and Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano) is an interesting prospect with both players very capable on their day. Gonzalo has had a solid year without fantastic results while Garcia can produce anything on the day. My last great LAY bet is ITALY – $18.50 (Francesco Molinari and Edoardo Molinari) who are2 very inconsistant players and a ridiculously short price. On their day both golfers can compete with the finest in Europe but to get 4 days of solid golf from both of them would be a miracle to say the least.
Our Bets are:
I’m not going to touch the winner market yet as i’d like to watch the first couple of rounds before commiting my money. Instead I’m looking at some of the Head to Head’s offered by SportsBet and Betfair.
$100 on CHINA to beat Japan at $2.30 on Betfair (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
$100 on ENGLAND to beat Ireland at $1.90 on Betfair (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
$100 on SPAIN to beat Sweden at $2.05 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
$100 on AUSTRALIA to beat Italy at $1.85 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
November 24th – Cricket (Australia vs West Indies)
Well summer is fast approaching and we are all set for the first test in Australia. The pitch as always looks fantastic at the GABBA and the West Indies have solved recent money problems to field a full strength team.
On paper and with the bookies this does still look a real mismatch and id find it hard to let anyone convince me it won’t be, however, i would say the Aussies have been less than impressive since their tests against South Africa last year (including a 2nd Ashes loss).
The Windies have had their fair share of drama since arriving with Chris Gayle flying home to be with his sick mother (Although he is expected to arrive back tomorrow), Ramnaresh Sarwan has got a mystery infection but again expected to play while the Windies may strike bowler in Jerome Taylor didn’t play the opening tour match due to being stiff and sore.
I do think Australia will win and win well and to be honest the $1.29 offered on Betfair is pretty juicy with the only drama being this very inconsistant weather we’ve had in recent times. To be honest though since the serious introduction of 20/20 cricket run-rates have increased and the likely hood of draws is decreasing.
Current odds see Australia at $1.29 to win the first test while West Indies are $13.50. The draw is paying $6.20
I’m not going to touch any of this though and instead am looking at the series batsmen and the 2 favourites standout as supreme selections. RICKY PONTING has found some good form of late in the one-dayers and has a love affair with the GABBA ground and is well known for hitting a 100 in the first innings of a test series there. In fact the last times the West Indies visited Australia in 2005 Ponting smashed 149 and 104* in his 2 innings in Brisbane.
Meanwhile from the West Indies it is very hard to go past the rock SHIVNARINE CHANDERPAUL. Chanderpaul consistantly provides the glue for the West Indian innings and it is likely that he’ll be batting twice to Pontings once if things go as expected.
Our Bets so far are:
$100 on RICKY PONTING to top score for the series for Australia at $3.50 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
$100 on SHIVNARINE CHANDERPAUL to top score for the series for West Indies at $3.25 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
Rembetica – Blackbooked Country Runner
One thing the TopPunter team loves to do is follow a runner, and we’ve had success with our blackbooked horses, including ROBERTS ROAD, OUR VEGAS DREAM and KASABIAN the standout after his stunning wins.
The key to being successful in following a horse is picking up when it offers good odds on a suited distance, track and weight carried. Not every horse you’ll follow will be a HOT DANISH or SHOCKING and your knowledge of local tracks comes in handy.
One horse we’ve followed for a while is REMBETICA. We’ve been able to follow his progress around as a bit of an iron horse, running in just about every Newcastle and Hunter region race over 2000m. We’ve had plenty of success in being able to carefully punt on him when he is set for track conditions and weight carried and we have had some healthy place prices and a win. One of our best results was a strong second on Cameron Handicap day at Newcastle with Stathi Katsidis on board giving him a decent run down the long straight suiting the fast finish and he bolted through to claim good place odds at $4.10 on the tote and just miss for a $18 win.
We had a chat to Rembetica’s trainer, Ms Dianne Lumsden about her thoughts on the horse. Diane, who is based in Broadmeadow, was kind enough to answer a few questions for us and we like to share the love and include the info for our followers.
Dianne let us know that she intended to leave him in the paddock for a good spell after the race at Newcastle as she’d given him a tough task of a number of runs. However, after about a month being spelled he was really starting to kick up and get a bit frisky indicating he was ready for work. Rembetica is about 3 or 4 weeks into around the 6-7 weeks work she intends to give him before putting him back into a race. Dianne said she’s likely to start him at the 1400m or so just to check that he is ready before going out beyond the mile. One key factor for Dianne is getting a jockey on board who will race him as she intends to give him every chance of flying home and converting the podium finishes to a winners trophy or two.
All the best to Dianne and the connections, and if we think he’s worth the odds we’ll be looking at an each way here or there. Good punting!
-TopPunter team-
November 24th – Blackbook Addition
We have another horse to add to our Blackbook collection.
FAIR CHOICE
This horse looked impressive in its comfortable win in a Scone maiden over 1100m on 24/11/09. Eased up a long way from home. The pace appeared to be on so don’t get too excited over it but was a class above everything else and clearly had everything covered a long way from home
November 19th – Soccer / Football
Now that the Premier League has setlled down after a slightly erratic start we can start looking a little more seriously at some regular bets.
First up i really like the value about Fulham ($3.05) against Birmingham ($2.60) this weekend. Although Fulham are playing away they have been very consistant this year and only really looked like struggling when they lost the services of the great Mark Schwarzer. Fulham have had the unfamiliar role of a European campaign to deal with this year and have been holding themselves in good stead. They ill definitely appreciate the 2 week break due to the International games last weekend and i expect them to be firing on all cylinders this week.
Blackburn is the next team that again represents superb value this weekend when they take on Bolton. Blackburn ($3.60) haven’t been outstanding this year but have performed well recently apart from 3 big loses to the heavyweights in Chelsea, Man Utd and Arsenal. Whereas Bolton ($2.30) have been in woeful form conceeding 13 goals whilst scoring only 1 in their past 3 games.
Our last match i am punting on is Stoke City ($2.20) and Portsmouth ($3.80). Stoke have been solid without being flashy this year. Portsmouth were on a 3 game winning streak and looking solid before going down 3-1 to Blackburn in its last match. If this match had been played last round i’m sure Portsmouth would’ve been a lot shorter if not favourite and therefore i see their price way over the odds. Expect to see some goals in this game so backing overs might be a good option too.
Our official bets are:
$40 on FULHAM to beat Birmingham at $3.05 on Betfair (Sports Managed Fund 2% Bet)
$60 on BLACKBURN to beat Bolton at $3.60 on Betfair (Sports Managed Fund 3% Bet)
$40 on PORTSMOUTH to beat Stoke City at $3.80 on betfair (Sports Managed Fund 2% Bet)
RESULTS
Fulham and Portsmouth both went down 1-0 while Blackburn ensured a winning weekend with a 2-0 win. With our staking plan that gives us a 54% profit on investment and a 4% increase for our managed fund account.
November 18th – Golf
It’s been a while since i posted the golf bets on the website at the start of the round so i thought i’d share the love this weekend.
The main tournament in focus is the Dubai World Championship which has gathered a stellar field this year. The only golfers (And yes they are major ones) missing are Woods, Mickelson and Stricker from the top couple of golfers but i really like the list they have put together.
I’m going to keep it pretty simple here and stick with 2 of my favourite golfers in MARTIN KAYMER ($15.50) and JEEV MILKHA SINGH ($120). Kaymer was in brilliant form at the start of the European Season before being sidelined with injury, however, since his return he has finished 2nd, 13th and 6th suggesting he is ready to go again. Singh hasn’t been as devastating finishing with 2 top 20’s and 2 more top 40’s in his past 4 tournaments, however, the key factor this week is the weather.
Both Singh and Kaymer have played there best golf when the weather is hot and as expected that is what they will be getting here in Dubai.
Our Bets are:
$100 on Martin Kaymer to win the Dubai World Championship at $15.50 (Betfair) (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
$20 on Jeev Milkha Singh to win the Dubai World Championship $120 (Betfair) (Sports Maanged Fund 1% Bet)
Head to Head Bets
$100 on Lee Westwood to beat Padraig Harrington at $1.85 (SportsBet) (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
$100 on Robert Allenby to beat Camillo Vilegas at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
$100 on Danny Willet to beat Chris Wood at $1.80 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
$100 on Soren Kjeldsen to beat Miguel Angel Jimeniz at $1.95 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
**A multi on the 4 head to head results would payout a tasty $12.34 which is well worth a couple of dollars as well.
Tuesday 17th October – Horse Racing
A surprisingly strong days racing this Wednesday with the Gosford and Ballarat Cup meetings the main attraction.
Our Early Mail selections are:
3.20pm – Ballarat Race 7 – 5. DE FINE LAGO (Horse Managed Fund 4% Win)
4.57pm – Gosford Race 7 – 5. KEEPIN’ THE DREAM (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
7.40pm – Pinjarra Race 7 – 6. ROSMOPOLITAN (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
I’m very keen to see the price and the run of a former Blackbooked horse of mine in SADAYAKKO in the 7th at Murray Bridge. This horse used to run around in Newcastle and was an extremely fast finisher but then just went off the rails. The horse has now been shifted interstate and in the hands of the very capable John Hickmott so I am expecting big things.
As for the 2 cup races I like DAKA’S GEM in the Ballarat Cup. This horse has been in very consistent form in weaker races but drops a couple of kg’s here and has a great record at the track and distance. I also wouldn’t count out the Bart Cummings trained DANDAAD who was very strong in the Geelong Cup before being blown away (Like everyone was) by Shocking on Derby Day in the Lexus. Another who I give an outside chance to because he should get a dream run is SYLVAIN O’REILLY and is nice odds around the $13 mark.
In the Gosford Cup the markets have been sent into a spin with the late scratching of early favourite FAULCONBRIDGE. This now brings my early mail selection in KEEPIN’ THE DREAM right into contention. Keepin’ the Dream has been finishing its races off strongly and will appreciate the step up to 2100m. Is a deserved favourite now. COMMON OBJECTIVE has a strong record at the track but recent performances haven’t impressed me enough to include amongst the chances. Had BALGAGARNEY drawn better I might have been more tempted to pick him to challenge for the win. Gosford is a great front runners track but from barrier 12 he might have some difficulty getting over. If it does (without too much difficulty) and you are near a betfair account and they are in running betting then get on cause he will be hard to run down. It may also opt to take the sit behind DOTHIS DOTHAT as there is plenty of speed from other horses in the field.
RESULTS
We got off to a flying start with DE FINE LAGO ($3.80) winning nicely for a great return to start the day. Keepin’ the Dream was a bit disapoiting in the Gosford Cup then we just missed the chocolates with our third selection ROSMOPOLITAN running 2nd. All said and done it was still a comfortable 6% profit for the managed fund for the day.
November 11th – Golf
THe Australian Masters starts tomorrow and the World Number 1 TIGER WOODS tees off nice and early at 7.30am.
We have a selection to challenge him along with some great priced Head to Head bets. Join our FREE month to get on nice and early and the best prices.
November 11th – Horse Racing
Another superb day for our subscribers and managed fund with 3 winners from 3 selections. Probably more importantly we are avoiding alot of the losing bets where other tipsters aren’t. Sometimes the best thing to do is leave well enough alone. I explained again why I stay away from Canterbury this morning and that was proved once again when not a single favourite won today and some massive priced winners. There were also no favourites winning at Doomben either but that was mainly due to some maidens and country form that was hard to line up.
The only disappointing thing for me was I placed the managed fund money on the Super Price (www.iasbet.com) and all 3 horses were crunched in causing their Super Price to be a bit lower than the Top Fluctuation.
Seymour Race 5 – 5. WILD ONE (Horse Managed Fund 4% Win) WINNER ($2.65 SP, $2.60 TF)
Seymour Race 6 – 4. LA ROCKET (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win) WINNER ($2.44 SP, $2.50 TF)
Seymour Race 8 – 2. SUPREME DE LAGO (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win) WINNER ($3.56 SP, $5.00 TF)
Still a great 15% profit for the managed fun for just today and that makes a 23% profit for November alone (and its only 11 days old)
This continues on the great form we had in October with the Racing fun increasing $42% and the Sports Fund 55%.