TopPunter Weekend Review
Another great weekend for TopPunter followers with both Soccer / Football matches getting up and 3 winners from our 5 Early Mail selections going out to our subscribers. That included the brilliant win by our TopPunter Tip of the Day in PINS ON ICE winning nicely.
We were harshly dealt with in Michael Clarke not being given the opportunity to outscore Ricky Ponting with Ponting sending in a night watchman (Nathan Hauritz) then declaring when Clarke was going along nicely on 28 not out. I guess thats punting for you!
These results back up our previous weekend results where we had all 4 of our head to head matches resulting in winners in the South African Open (Golf)
Lets hope our good fortune continues this weekend!
December 26th – TopPunter Tip of the Day
Occasionally we post on the website the Tip of the Day and as Boxing Day is one of the great days for punting we have decided to share it with you today.
Today’s Tip
1.30pm – Caulfield Race 2 – 2. PINS ON ICE (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
December 24th – Cricket (Boxing Day Tests)
We have 2 tests we are looking at for Boxing day. Australia plays Pakistan at the Melbourne Cricket Ground whilst South African hosts England at Durban.
Australia vs Pakistan
At the MCG there is some decent value around on the Aussies and a short price on the draw due to the expecting foul weather. I still think the Aussies are good value at $1.80 but i’m not keen to touch it after rain has ruined a few good bets we’ve had recently. It’s funny how people jump all over the draw when the weather is predicted to be bad when bad weather also makes it much harder for batting as the ball swings more and the pitch becomes unpredictable.
In the series markets there is some good value in the Pakistan Series leading run scorers. I watched a lot of the Pakistan vs New Zealand test series and was really impressed with the debut of Umar Akmal who batted without fear and scored very well averaging over 60 in his first series. His brother Kamran Akmal has been a regular fixture in the Pakistan team since 2002 and has also found some good form in recent times with the bat. The Betfair markets hasn’t really setlled yet although you can get $13.50 about Kamran where as for Umar the best value is SportsBet who has him listed at $5.50.
I struggle to find a standout in the Australian team. Simon Katich ($4.60) has been very solid of late and wouldn’t be a bad option if you felt you had to have a bet. You couldn’t posssibly back Ricky Ponting with his injury that may see him miss the 1st test. A good player of spin will be fairly important as Danish Kaneria is a quality bowler and will probably be the leading wicket taker for the Pakistani’s so that brings Michael Clarke ($6.20) heavily into contention.
South Africa vs Pakistan
In Durban i am really keen to get all over South Africa to topple England in the 2nd test. We only just missed the money in the first test when England held on with 1 wicket to spare for a draw. South Africa would come out of the test match feeling very confident that they had the better of the test and would be keen to turn the tables on the Poms. South Africa also are likely to be strengthend in their bowling attacks with Dale Steyn expected to come back into the side. Meanwhile England are in disaray with their line-up with the struggling performances of Ian Bell and Alastair Cook whilst their bowling attack struggled thoughout the test.
We’ll have a couple of small bets here.
$100 on UMAR AKMAL to be the leading run-scorer for Pakistan in the series at $5.50 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
$40 on KAMRAN AKMAL to be the leading run-scorer for Pakistan in the series at $13.50 on Betfair (Sports Managed Fund 2% Bet)
$200 on SOUTH AFRICA to beat England in the 2nd test at $2.74 on Betfair(Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
December 24th – English Premier League
Norwich v Millwall
December 26, 2009
The Canaries have been on song recently, winning their last seven matches at Carrow Road and looking like a team that can be automatically promoted this season. Paul Lambert has done an outstanding job to turn around the team’s fortunes in such a short space of time, although he is blessed with attacking players such as Grant Holt, Chris Martin and the influential Wes Hoolahan, who has scored twelve goals from midfield this season. Although Huddersfield competed well for the first part of last Saturday’s game, City showed their killer instinct to win 3-0.
It’s doubtful that Millwall are as good as the Terriers, althoughtop marks to the Lions for managing a 4-4 draw at Charlton last weekend. However, this was a derby match and they are still missing strikers Neil Harris and Gary Alexander in attack. Kenny Jackett’s team have only picked up one away win this season and it’s their form at the New Den which has helped them achieve a top-half finish. Providing Norwich can keep Steve Morison quiet, the ball should continue to roll for them!
$200 on Norwich to beat Millwall at $1.76 with Betfair (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
Torquay v Hereford
December 26, 2009
Although the table suggests that Torquay are having a tough time of it, nothing could be further from the truth for Paul Buckle’s team. United simply had a very tough start to the season, although their recent form has been one of the best in the league. The Gulls’ last two matches have seen them thrash Darlington 5-0 and then go to Stockport in the FA Cup and produce an outstanding performance to win 4-0. Striker Elliot Benyon is enjoying himself in front of goal, having scored four goals in the past two matches and he’ll be eyeing further opportunities in this game.
Hereford have previously been successfully opposed in this column, with the Bulls simply struggling after their relegation from League One last season. Although they are two places higher than their opponents, the visitors have managed just one win away from Edgar Street and John Trewick’s team have been comfortably beaten in their last three matches. They might struggle to get anything at Plainmoor as well.
$100 on Torquay to beat Hereford at $2.12 with Betfair (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
December 20th – England vs South Africa (Cricket)
I’ve watched a lot of this test match and it has been very entertaining. It has a lot of similarities to the Australia vs West Indies match where the mitch played well early but is starting to play a few tricks.
I’ve played a little bit of cricket in my time and England have made the common error (my belief) of using the night watchman to see out the final few overs at the end of day 4. Yes it protects a batsman at the end of the day when conditions could be at their worst but what it does in this situation is it provided the South Africans with an easy early wicket which has got them pumped up and ready to charge. They have then picked up another wicket with Cook falling to Harris as i type this.
Their is some weather in the area and i am hoping we don’t have the same situation we did in the New Zealand vs Pakistan test but i am willing to take the chance with the odds on offer. With England 3 for 33 and no chance of chasing the 364 runs required for victory i can see the Afrricans going on the full assault all day without fear of leaking runs. 75 overs remain and 7 wickets are needed. The tail will struggle to handle Harris and Morkel on a pitch doing crazy things.
Our bet is
$200 on South Africa to win the 1st test against England at $2.28 on Betfair (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
December 19th – Soccer / Football
Our soccer man has been very quiet this season but he is always very successful so whenever he sends me an email I’m always very keen to forward it on to my subscribers and use it for the Sports Managed Fund. Here is his latest email.
Nottingham Forest v Preston North End
December 19, 2009
Nottingham Forest were troubling the relegation places at the start of the season, although a thirteen-match unbeaten run has seen them cruise into the play-off places. It’s hard to see Preston
stopping the Tricky Trees, who have won their last two home matches by 4-1 and 5-1 margins. Defensively, the team are very stout, with Wes Morgan one of the best central defenders in the division and Lee Camp proving adept between the sticks. Last Saturday’s 1-0 win at Swansea was perhaps their stand-out result of the season, although Billy Davies will be sure to keep the players’ feet on the ground.
Preston finally brought their winless run to an end by beating Plymouth on Saturday, although the visitors weren’t without their chances and North End should struggle to get anything from this game. Their last three away matches have seen them lose at Watford and Cardiff, sandwiching a 1-1 draw with Blackpool. While manager Alan Irvine should be commended for the job he’s doing at Deepdale, PNE are essentially a selling club who will struggle to replicate last season’s top six finish.
We’ll back Nottingham Forest for the win at $1.85 on Betfair (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
Walsall v Leyton Orient
December 19, 2009
Two weeks ago, the Saddlers were in great form, although successive defeats have seen them drop back to tenth in League One. However, these results came against Southampton and at Millwall, the latter of which Chris Hutchings’ team were unlucky to lose. Had they taken their chances when 1-0 up, it would have been a different story and they are sure to be fired up to land three precious points before Christmas. It has previously been three wins on the bounce for Walsall, with striker Darren Byfield in good form.
Leyton Orient have lost seven of their ten matches on the road this season, including the last three. Geraint Williams has not got a particularly big squad at his disposal, with the manager having to rely on young Ryan Jarvis and veteran Scott McGleish for goals. The latter has bagged eight goals this season, although six of these have been at home and it’s at Brisbane Road where the O’s should pick up enough points to be safe.
We’ll back Walsall for the win at $1.91 on Betfair (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
Accrington Stanley v Barnet
December 19, 2009
It’s something of a surprise to see Stanley available at near even money for this match. This isn’t just because they became the first team to win at Notts County on Saturday, but also because they have won their last four matches in League Two. John Coleman has got his team playing some very nice football and they were slightly unfortunate not to get anything from Tuesday’s cup game at Leeds United. They drew 2-2 with Barnet in the FA Cup last month, although the visitors needed a last-minute penalty to get the draw, so Accrington will be looking to go one better.
Barnet manager Ian Hendon has threatened to put several members of the squad on the transfer list after some abject displays and morale isn’t great going into this game. The Bees have lost seven of their ten matches on the road, which is in stark contrast to their form at Underhill where they have lost just one match. It’s been three consecutive defeats for the London club, who rely heavily on John O’Flynn for goals.
We’ll back Accrington Stanley for the win at $1.94 on Betfair (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
December 18th – Australia vs West Indies (Update)
Just an update based on our match preview I sent out before the start of the 3rd test. I suggested that the $1.40 about the Aussies was too short and you would be likely to get an opportunity to back the Aussies later in the match at $1.80 to $2.00. If you followed that advice then the time has come to start covering your bets. I know many of you aren’t familiar with Betfair yet (I’m quite happy to help people through this process if they need help, just email me), however, I will give you an example here.
Imagine you layed (backing them not to win) the Aussies at $1.40 and wanted to risk $100 meaning your profit should they not win would be $250. Now the Aussies have gone out to $2.00 you have 3 options.
- Back the Aussies for the $100 stake you were risking on the lay meaning if the Aussies now win you break even but if they lose or draw you make $155+.
- You back the Aussies so that you even all your profits out so no matter the result you make the same profit. To do this you need to back the Aussies for $195+. Your profit for the match will be $65+ no matter the result.
- You can back the Aussies so that the only way you win is if they win. For this you need to back the Aussies for $250. This means if the Aussies win you make $145 but if they lose or draw you break even.
Good luck with it all.
On a side note I think the value in Dwayne Bravo being the top West Indian scorer is great value at $15. He should love this pitch if he survives the early balls and gets settled
December 17th – South African Open
This weekend sees the South African Open Championship contest at the Pearl Valley Golf Estate for the 3rd year in a row. As this course has only been used twice before in very different conditions its hard to get a real form guide as to who has a liking for thsi course. However, i have found a few things of interest.
No surprises that one of our long time favourites CHARL SCHWARTZEL ($12) if the pre tournament favourite. A classy golfer with a lot of talent and should have won last weekend falling 1 shot short. Defending champion RICHARD STERNE ($15) is also high up in the betting but he just doesn’t seem to be the same player he was at this time last year when he won back-to-back tournaments. Although finishing resonable high in the end he never really threatened anyone. JAMES KINGSTON ($36) is fairly good odds considering he won this tournament 2 years ago and has been in solid form of late making the cut in his last 5 tounaments including a top 20 finish last week. His win 2 years ago was in horrific windy conditions which are not expected here but if he is in striking distance he could be one to consider if the weather turns ugly on the weekend as is expected.
As the weather is expected to be good for the first 2 days i am expecting some low scoring and therefore you are best aiming at the young players with no fear. Schwartzel fits into that category along with players like RAFAEL CABRERA BELLO ($50) and LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN ($32). ROBERT ROCK ($42) is considerably shorter than when we backed him last week at $70 but you would expect him to go well again.
However, my standout bet this week is for a future star in GARETH MAYBIN ($23) who lost in a playoff to Sterne last year and has been going from strength to strength in his past couple of seasons. He has finished 2 top 5’s and 4 top 30’s in his past 5 tournaments suggesting he is striking the ball well. He loomed as a contender last weekend before just not getting the breaks on the final Sunday. He is in this up to his ears.
Our bets are:
$100 on GARETH MAYBIN to win the South African Open at $23 on Betfair (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
$100 on GARETH MAYBIN to beat Ross McGowan in the overall at $1.95 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
$100 on RAFAEL CABRERA-BELLO to beat Ignacio Garrido in the overall at $1.97 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
$100 on EDUARDO MOLINARI to beat Gregory Bourdy in the overall at $1.95 on IASBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
$100 on PABLO MARTIN to beat Sean Lowry in the overall at $1.85 on IASBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
New Blackbooker
We have a new Blackbooker to follow in:
ADOPTME TWO
This horse had a superb win in a lowly maiden at Strathalbyn so i won’t get too carried away. The big factors that cause me to include it as a blackbookers was the way it won. This horse had a terrible ride burried away last after missing the kick slightly. It got stoked up a long way out and looked to be getting hard ridden but respondingg. It had to bump out 2 or 3 horses to get in the clear which put it off balance somewhat. It then flew home down the short straight to reel in a big leader on the turn. This horse just showed me it has tremendous speed and more importantly a will to win!
December 16th – Weekend Review and Cricket Preview
We had good results on the golf over the weekend with the Big 6 rarely in danger at the Australian PGA Championship. Robert Allenby started the tournament with 2 bogeys in the first 2 holes then played really solid golf for the rest of the round and the following 3 days to dominated the resort course winning by 4 shots. Coming into the final day we had many of our top 6 in contention and I was supremely confident.
For those who followed the tips for the Alfred Dunhill Championship at Leopard Creek you had the opportunity to back and lay everyone of the suggested golfers and make a profit. Charl Schwartzel was the highest placed of the 4 with a runner-up finish and it should have been win had he not made 2 ridiculous errors on the final day costing him valuable shots. For the rest of the day he was flawless and I am amazed he didn’t win. We have now followed him for a number of years and he is really proving a gold mine for us. Of our other selections Robert Rock was at $70 at the start of the tournament and finished 4th. Rafael Cabrera-Bello looked on song in the 1st and 2nd rounds but just couldn’t keep it going (He was a bit erratic). Ernie Els was running 2nd coming into the final day but had terrible trouble with every part of his game. It was a day to forget for him .
In our cricket bet I was amazed that Daniel Vettori (who I rate very highly as a player and captain) went very defensive in the 2nd innings I guess in a move to limit any runs he would have to chase on the final day. What resulted was Pakistan given an easy time batting within themselves before the Kiwis came back late on the final day to set up a thrilling finish. In the end they needed 210 off 41 overs and got off to a flying start at 0 for 90 off 18 before rain finished the test off. I have no doubt had the rain not arrived they would have won the test and that is definitely one that got away.
In the cricket today Australia take on the West Indies for the 3rd and final test. The Adelaide draw will have fired up an Australian side who won’t treat the Windies as lightly this time round. The Perth pitch would have suited both sides with the curator suggesting it is getting back towards its old form of hard and fast. I was very keen to jump on board the Aussies again until the injuries came in. Australia have lost Peter Siddle (To go along with losing Ben Hilfenhaus before the 2nd test) and instead of bringing in an experienced paceman to help the erratic Mitchell Johnson and the inexperienced Doug Bollinger they have gone for the rookie Clint McKay. While I think McKay has a lot of talent and this pitch is a great place for a paceman to debut I really feel Stuart Clark was the smarter option. Add to that Nathan Hauritz who has been very up and down in recent test and has injured his bowling finger. The Aussie selectors have gone with 20 year old future start Steve Smith who’s leg spin is a long way off being good and it will be an interesting debut should he make it. This line up gives me no confidence of Australia getting the 20 wickets required to win. The only positive for Australia is that the Windies have their own injury concerns with Shiv Chanderpaul and Adrian Barath unlikely to take their place in the Windies batting line up which is a huge loss.
The $1.40 is way too skinny and I am tempted to lay them at that price and look to back them later on at a higher price ($1.80 – $2.00). This is very probable as if the Windies win the toss they will like batting on the fast surface and could set a decent score. Also if they bowl first future star Kemar Roach will trouble the Aussie batsmen.
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