February 28th – Weekend Ratings Review
We commented yesterday that the Weekend Ratings looked a good chance to collect the Big 6 and many of our subscribers are now laughing all the way to the collect queue. Here is a review of the horses, what they were ranked in the ratings and there tote price. The end dividend was $33,706.00 which could have been collected for as little investment as $120.
Race 1 – Rosehill Race 6 – Winner – 10. MONTON ($30.60) ranked 5th at 12%
Race 2 – Caulfield Race 7 – Winner – 6. TYPHOON TRACY ($1.60) ranked 1st at 100%
Race 3 – Rosehill Race 7 – Winner -4. WINTER KING (10.30) ranked 3rd at 15%
Race 4 – Caulfield Race 8 – Winner – 1. EXTRA ZERO ($3.60) ranked 2nd at 53%
Race 5 – Rosehill Race 8 – Winner – 7. SOPHISTICATION ($2.80) ranked 2nd at 93%
Race 6 – Caulfield Race 9 – Winner – 8. BERRINGAMA ($3.20) ranked 2nd at 75%
Well done again to those collecting the cash and we hope the returns continue in the future. If you would like more information on the Weekend Ratings like, “How do they work?”, “What do the percentages mean?”, “How should i use them?” then just email me at brad@toppunter.net
February 27th – Horse Racing
I have decided on such a good days racing to share our Early Mail preview and selections with everyone to give you a taste of what our subscribers receive. The percentages next to the EArly Mail selections show the level of your betting bank you should invest. For more information on this join for the FREE month or email me at brad@toppunter.net.
Here is this mornings email.
Morning All,
The Horse Managed Fund continued to roll on last night with another high percentaged winner in SWOOPER winning comfortably. Rarely has a day gone by where we haven’t picked up a winner and made a profit for the day.
Thanks also to those who sent messages after Wednesday’s Early Mail. Although we only had 1 tip which didn’t get a collect we did mention KISS ‘N CHASE who won the last in comfortable fashion while ROBERTS ROAD almost pulled off a big win for some of our punters when it ran close 2nd paying at least $4.50 the place (On Betfair it was closer to $6.00)
Today’s racing is pretty handy and well worth having a bet. As always keep your big bets to our Early Mail and have some fun bets elsewhere around the place. I have a feeling the ratings will go close to the Big 6 and Quaddie’s today so might be worth having a dabble there too. The biggest race is unfortunately the least appealing with TYPHOON TRACY a standout selection. To be honest I never recommend backing anything under $1.60 but that is almost worth a go at those odds. SNIPERS BULLET has the class but won’t win today, however, I am very keen to see how our old favourite JOKU handles this class. In the next we have The Yalumba and I think PINS ON ICE is an outside chance at a blowout result at the juicy odds of $26. Probably the pick of the races is the last which see’s some old timers take on each other. I’m not going to stick my next out on any but will be enjoying the race.
Rosehill has strong racing all day and I’m very keen to see how CHAKVETADZE handles her first trip to Sydney. I was tempted to back it in the early mail but it’s been a quick trip down here (after racing last weekend) and I’m not sure they could’ve prepared the horse to its best ability. The Group 2 Silver Slipper is the first big race on the card and the hot favourite CHANCE BYE is the talk of the town after 2 huge wins in its only 2 starts. The horse I expected to challenge it strongly was GEORGETTE SILK, however, it has been scratched this morning already. Maybe if ZUTURA has improved its racing style she could threaten for a win. The next sees some of the best in Sydney go round in the Hobartville Stakes. Early Favourite MANHATTAN RAIN was very disappointing last start while SHOOT OUT was brilliant, however, there is a multitude of chances in this race and again I couldn’t stick my neck out. VERBALLED came close to an Early Mail selection in the 7th, while the last should go to early favourite SOPHISTICATION, however, we’ve gone for the value in MADIBAGOLD.
Our Early Mail Tips are:
3.35pm – Caulfield Race 6 – 1. TIME MATTERS (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
3.45pm – Morphettville Race 5 – 4. IN THE CHAIR (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
5.15pm – Rosehill Race 8 – 3. MADIBAGOLD (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
6.05pm – Eagle Farm Race 8 – 8. WILD WILBUR (Horse Managed Fund 1% EW)
6.15pm – Ascot Race 5 – 10. IMPATIENT TIMES (Horse Managed Fund 4% Win)
Golf – PGA Tour (Phoenix Open)
The European Tour goes on a break this week while the PGA Tour heads to the Desert for the Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. This is one of my favourite courses as it provides plenty of birdie opportunities but punishes those who take risks at the wrong time. The run home is a perfect example with a very reachable in 2 Par 5 (15th), then the stadium styled par 3 (16th) a drivable Par 4 for the big boys (17th) and a punishing final hole that could be very important come the final round on Sunday (18th).
JB HOLMES ($25) has won this tournament twice in recent times and many think he’ll over power the course but I think good iron play is more important. Having said that he has been in good form of late and a high finish wouldn’t surprise at all. I refuse to talk about PHIL MICKLESON ($9.60) anymore as he is definitely the most overrated golfer on the PGA Tour. IAN POULTER ($24) played well last week but it is rare to have a player go back to back and especially in 2 very different formats. The golfer that stands out massively for me is the TopPunter favourite in MARTIN KAYMER ($23). Kaymer has proved time and time again that he loves desert golf (He has a stunning record in the middle east) and he has the game to adapt to all courses. In great form and a solid pick again this week. KEVIN NA ($42) could be a strong contender this week after running into a white hot McIlroy in the 1st round of the World Matchplay he will be fresh and ready to defend his 3rd place finish last year. Has a game to suit this course and can handle the low scoring. If length does end up playing a part this year I’d have to include RORY SABBATINI ($85) who has been strong this year and can easily put a couple of low scoring rounds together if his head is on.
Our Bets are:
MATT KUCHAR to beat Brian Gay at $2.00 on SportsBet (Horse Managed Fund 5% Bet)
BUBBA WATSON to beat Pat Perez at $1.85 on SportsBet (Horse Managed Fund 5% Bet)
MARTIN KAYMER to beat Ian Poulter at $1.85 on SportsBet (Horse Managed Fund 15% Bet)
GEOFF OGILVY to beat Phil Mickleson at $2.55 on SportsBet (Horse Managed Fund 5% Bet)
TopPunter Managed Fund
I have had a lot of questions lately about the TopPunter Managed Funds so i thought i would post a little more information on here. Here at TopPunter we have two Managed Funds (Horse and Sports) which investors have the opportunity to participate in. Anyone can join at any time but the funds work on a monthly basis and each investor recieves a rundown on how the fund performed at the end of every month plus an opportunity to remove any funds without penalty.
Some of you still might be confused so I will give you an example. If you had invested $1000 in the Horse Racing fund at the start of February you would have been emailed all 24 bets (All bets are emailed prior to each race to ensure authenticity) where we have had 9 winners and an increase in profit of 19%. Therefore your $1000 balance would now be worth $1190. If it stayed at that level at the end of the month the commision taken by TopPunter would only be $28.50 (15% of profit only) leaving you with a tidy $161.50 profit for the month without doing anything. The best bit about the TopPunter commision is we it is only taken if you make a profit. So if you’re not making money then neither are we.
Here is the email you would have received as a subscriber this morning explaining the bets we were backing for today.
Caulfield Race 7 – 3. BENETEAU (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
Rosehill Race 6 – 6. RANGIRANDOO (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
Doomben Race 6 – 3. CHAKVETADZE (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
Caulfield Race 8 – 2. LUCKY SECRET (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
Morphettville Race 7 – 10. I’M DISCREET (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
**The percentages are the amount of your bank that is placed on each bet.
If at the end of the month you decided to leave your profit in the fund you begin the next month with $1161.50.
Anyone signing up for the FREE month trial recieves all Managed Fund selections so you can follow them yourselves.
For more information on returns for each fund since it begin in June 2009 just send me an email at brad@toppunter.net
Blackbook Addition
We’ve had great success with our Blackbooked horses in the past and we have another addition to the stables. This horse raced today (Sat 20th February) and it sweated up badly before hand, was caught 4 wide early and had to use up petrol to get over outside the leader for the trip. It then showed great courage to fight on in the straight when under pressure and even managed to kick clear in the final 50m.
IMPATIENT TIMES
February 18th – WGC Update
A great start to the World Golf Championships with 4 of our 5 selections (Allenby, Ogilvy, Yang, Els and Kaymer) winning for a clear 20% profit for our Sports Managed Fund customers. We have another 4 bets on again tonight for the 2nd round and they will again go out to our subscribers and those registered for the Free Trial.
February 17th – World Matchplay Championship Golf
Once again our early preview of the European and PGA Tours produced another winner with DUSTIN JOHNSON keeping his strong form going by winning at Pebble Beach last weekend. The good news for Managed Fund customers was that although we only got 2 out of 4 head to head bets up they were our 2 HUGE 15% bets so we made a tidy profit for the weekend. This weekend i am sharing my thoughts on the web for all to see, however, i will reserve the offical bets for our subscribers or those who have signed up for the Free month trial.
What an appetising weekend we have in the golf this weekend. The European and PGA Tours are on hold for the World Accenture Match Play Championship and the best of the best are here to compete. For those unsure of the format I will try and break it down for you. It pretty much works like a tennis tournament whereby players are seeded and they verse another opponent in a head to head competition over 18 holes. It is a knockout format so there is no room for a bad day. I will try and give my opinion of a number of first round matches and you may wish to multi some of those together or just stick with the official bets at the end which I believe are the best value. Hopefully I can get some time to preview each round, however, this can be difficult as sometimes they play 2 matches on 1 day.
Round 1
Bobby Jones Bracket
What an interesting bunch of golfers with hardly anyone in great form coming into this match. Having said that many of these golfers have won or finished in the top 5 in recent weeks on the PGA or European Tours. Stricker should beat McGowan but at $1.28 and not a stunning Match Play record you are taking the shorts. Ishikawa ($2.00) vs Sim ($1.82) is a cracking match and I think the underdog is a strong chance of toppling the young Aussie, however, I really thought the odds would have been higher. Karlsson ($1.68) showed his metal when taking on Westwood down the stretch in the Middle east only a few weeks ago but then turned his toes up the following week which makes me un easy about his chances against Sabbatini. Last year’s Semi Finalist Fischer ($1.45) takes on in form Jaidee and I think Jaidee showed some nerves coming up the stretch when in control 2 weeks ago suggesting he might not be able to match the Englishman in this format. Kim ($1.65) should beat Kuchar although Kuchar has been having his best season on the PGA Tour so far in 2010. Poulter ($1.57) vs Leonard ($2.40) is a lottery and I’d probably lean towards Leonard with the value in betting. The most intriguing match-up in this bracket is Cabrera ($1.70) against Scott ($2.15). Cabrera should win that in a canter but who knows which Scott turns up.
Ben Hogan Bracket
This bracket has some hot form coming out of it and it leaves me scratching my head to find a winner of the bracket out of them all. However, I think there are some good head to head bets. Kaymer ($1.53) is making giant leaps in the world rankings this year and has a steely persona which suits this format. He should have no problems with Campbell. Singh ($2.25) vs Clark ($1.63), Glover ($1.67) vs Hansen ($2.20), Jimeniz ($1.90) vs Wilson ($1.90) PASS. Garcia ($1.68) does like this format but has been in horrible form this season and therefore Toms is great value at $2.20. McIlroy should have his way with Na but the bookies think so to and his price of $1.38 is probably only tempting in a multi bet. Allenby ($1.55) is huge odds considering his form and coming up against Hanson who hasn’t set the world on fire in recent weeks. Donald ($1.70) has really impressed me in recent weeks and I am tempted to back him but I have decided to pass against the unpredictable McDowell ($2.15)
Gary Player Bracket
Without doubt the toughest bracket for a winner to come out of. In fact SportsBet have a market on the winning bracket at although this bracket is favourite I think they should be alot shorter than the $3.30 price tag. The only downside is whoever comes through this bracket to the semi finals will have worked pretty hard and may run out of steam before the final. Westwood ($1.40) is being tipped as a potential winner but his match play form has never been flash. He is playing a lot better early in the season than in the past. He comes up against the young gun Wood ($2.95) and I am so tempted to jump on the large odds but just can’t bring myself to do it (I will probably have a little bit of my own on there for interest sake). Watney ($1.36) looks a certain winner and another for a big multi against the much weaker Ikeda. Els ($1.67) is my tip to win the whole thing if he can survive this bracket and therefore I think he is a good thing against first round opponent Moore. Goosen ($1.65) vs Hansen ($2.35), Stenson ($1.55) vs Crane ($2.45) PASS. Yang ($1.83) proved himself in tough situations last year when taking on Tiger down the stretch to his first major and I think he is a huge price again Kjeldsen. Add Ogilvy ($1.35) to your multi bet as he should walk past Noren and on his way to defend the title he won last year. What a match-up to finish with Villegas ($2.10) against Johnson ($1.74) and if Johnson hadn’t won last week I’d be all over him. That said the pressure of winning back to back can be telling and he might be a little rusty in this first round. One to watch for sure.
Sam Snead Bracket
This bracket did not inspire me at all and I couldn’t even be bothered to preview each match like I have done for the others. The only match that stands out for me is Quiros ($1.65) which could be your 4th leg of your multi against Weir. The only thing I’ll be really watching here will be the results of the Italian Molinari Brothers who both appear here and could well be suited to the format although I’m not sure the course is designed to suit them. Last year’s defending champion Casey is in this bracket but crumbled under the pressure on the European Tour a few weeks ago in the final round it wouldn’t surprise me to see him knocked out in the 1st round by Ames.
February 13th – Horse Racing (Big 6 Preview)
The NSWTAB Big 6 promotion reaches a massive $2million jackpot today and is definitely worth a crack. You could try a number of methods from our Weekend Horse Ratings, Early Mail Selections or we have also had one of our team do his preview of the races along with a staking plan for you.
Hi All,
The Big 6 is a special one this weekend, with expected prize pool of over $2m with loads of cash poured in by the TAB for a mega jackpot.
We’d like nothing more than to help you get over the line, so we’ve got a special preview for the NSW Tab which is races 7, 8 9 at Mooney Valley and races 6, 7, 8 at Randwick. We’ll go wide where we need to make sure we’ve included those bigger odds hopefuls, but always looking to keep the multiples down to get a maximum %.
Leg 1: The NSW BIG6 kicks off with the William Reid Stakes, race 7 around Mooney Valley. The scratching of Black Caviar leaves the race with a few more chances and all the talk is about the speed in the race – will there be enough for a latecomer like NICCONI who fires home from the back? Considering his stunning win last start we can’t go past him, but we’ll put in WANTED who was the winner until the final few strides at Flemington. SHELLSCRAPE is an include due to the rain about the track – the Chris Waller trained horse is a real mudlark who wasn’t too far away last start and may go better in the wet.
Take 8, 5, 7 for safety, 7 & 5 for the risk
Leg 2: The Randwick legs start with a very good race in the Royal Sovereign Stakes. You’d have to suspect there are only three main chances in MANHATTAN RAIN, DEMERIT and MORE THAN GREAT.
Take 1, 2, 4, and try 1, 2 for the shorter risk
Leg 3: Back to the Valley. This race should play into ZARITA who is on a last prep before heading out to the breeding barn. With $1.5m in winnings, she gets in light due to the weight-for-age. She will be short but should be winning. In case of a failure, we’ve always liked SILVERCITYMISS and could threaten an upset at odds.
Take the 1 as your standout, include the 8 for an at odds selection.
Leg 4: Gee this one is a toughy. The track is rated slow so the likes of MONTANA FLYER are on the up. We are going to go with a wide spread: MADAME PEDRILLE, STRAWBERRY FIELD, MONTANA FLYER and include BEJEWELLED if the track looks like getting to a heavy.
Take 2, 4, 6 and 8 in the mud
Leg 5: The last event at Moonee Valley is also tricky with a 2040m slog over a well worn soft track. AIGLON with a claim is worth a look if it can lead, ISHANT won here last start but may find his weight tough going, MY BENTLEY was a big favourite last start and should improve.
Take 2, 5, 8
Leg 6: The final leg and if you’re alive now it’s time to start laying off your bets and collecting no matter what happens. Laying with Betfair is the go for this (shoot through an email if you don’t have a clue about laying off once your multiples get up over a few legs). KRONER loves the wet, as does DREAMSCAPE and PINS ON PARADE is never too far away.
Take 1, 5, 6
With all the inclusions, $100 gets you 15.4%, and if you take the riskier options and leave a few out, $100 gets you 46% (of a potential $2m!). Don’t forget 10% of something is better than 100% of nothing so include those runners who might just have a chance in the weaker fields of Legs 4 & 5.
February 13th – TopPunter Tip of the Day
We haven’t had a TopPunter Tip of the Day on the website for a few weeks now but i couldn’t resist sharing this one with everyone. Our strike rate when going public with just 1 selection has been highly successful and i am confident we are going down the same patth again here. ). In the Group 2 – Light Fingers at Randwick I was amazed our selection was $1.90 with SportsBet as I am fairly confident this will start $1.70 at the highest later. I am highly recommending you take the fixed odds option this time as that’s what we have done with our Horse Managed Fund.
3.45pm – Randwick Race 5 – 1. MORE JOYOUS **Taken $1.90 fixed odds on SportsBet
February 10th – European and PGA Tours
An average weekend for our Head to Head bets last weekend but I know some of you got on MIGUEL ANGEL JIMENIZ who we tipped in at $85 at the start of the Dubai Desert Classic. Well done!
In interesting weekend of golf in the European Tour. For the first time since the 2008 Johnny Walker Classic the European Tour is heading to India for the Avantha Masters. I haven’t seen the course yet but the card suggests it is going to be one for pure iron strikers with some long par 4’s and an Arnold Palmer design usual means a brain is required. The greens have some huge slopes on them which I think favours the lesser putters (sounds weird I know). My theory behind that is big sloped greens are easy to read whereas fast subtle greens require a real art form. The obvious choice (even though he’s not a long hitter) is JEEV MILKHA SINGH ($11) as this is his home country and returned to some form last weekend. Another one of our regulars in JYOTI RANDAWA ($28) could also perform well here after strong performances in recent weeks and the fact he has an affiliation with this course. Second favourite DARREN CLARKE ($17) won’t like it here with the large undulations challenging his lack of fitness. MARCUS FRASER ($42) could be the value of the bunch as he tends to play solidly all over the world and has been hitting the ball well of late.
Another week on the PGA Tour (Pebble Beach Pro Am) and again the talk is of PHIL MICKLESON ($9.80) and although again he has a good record here I don’t know how anyone can ever back him with any confidence at all. Yes he has incredible ability but his consistency is horrific and in many facets of the game. He often has no control over his driver and even when he puts that away and hits his 3 wood (Which is extremely accurate and should be used more often) he then increases his risk of missing the green where he is likely to try impossible flop shots that look brilliant when they land but are high risk and often fail miserably. JIM FURYK ($19.50) Pass. MIKE WEIR ($29) should be high on my list but I’m a little thrown back after shooting a 77 in the 2nd round last weekend when he looked a real threat. He does have 7 top 10 finishes in 10 starts at Pebble Beach. DUSTIN JOHNSON ($24) is definitely ready to take it to the next level and has been very consistent in the last couple of years. I also have to accept that I was majorly wrong on the mind set of LUKE DONALD ($28) last weekend when he performed brilliantly for 2nd place. I may be going a little crazy but I think ADAM SCOTT ($60) might compete well here along with the super consistent BRANDT SNEDEKER ($55)
Our Golf Tips are:
GARETH MAYBIN to beat Darren Clarke at $2.00 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
MARCUS FRASER to beat Andrew Dodt at $1.85 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
JYOTI RANDAWA to beat Shane Lowry at $1.90 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 15% Bet)
DUSTIN JOHNSON to beat Matt Kuchar at $1.87 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 15% Bet)
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