March 25th – NRL Round 3 Preview and Bets
I will post the occasional NRL Round preview on the website but the majority will be saved purely for the TopPunter subscribers. Remeber at all times you can sign up for the the FREE month and get your hands on all the Sports and Horse racing tips for FREE!
Round 3 gets under way with the Wests Tigers ($2.35) taking on the Parramatta Eels ($1.60) and I think they have got the market about right. I liked the look of the Tigers after round one but got up to their old tricks in round 2 letting in 44 points against a resurgent Sydney Roosters side. With attacking power all over the field for the Eels and Tigers this is likely to be a similar score line and I would be backing overs for Total Points If the bar is set at 45 points or less. I would’ve been tempted to take the $2.35 about the Tigers had they played their home game at Leichardt or Campbelltown where there record is much stronger. The Sydney Football Stadium will not intimidate the Eels and in fact they may end up out supported.
It’s very hard to back against the St George / Illawarra Dragons ($1.33) to beat the North Queensland Cowboys ($3.30) but I really don’t like taking skinny odds so early in the season. However, the fact the Cowboys are away from home and the Dragons have been very clinical again this year it’s hard to see any other result. In fact giving the 9.5 points start away for a $1.91 payout looks like a very strong option especially when you consider that the strong defensive centre in Matt Cooper returns this week to shore up their back line.
Penrith Panthers ($2.05) vs Melbourne Storm ($1.78), Manly Sea Eagles ($1.62) vs Newcastle Knights ($2.30) and Gold Coast Titans ($1.28) vs Canberra Raiders ($3.65) are big passes with no value in odds.
I was really shocked to see the difference in odds between the Brisbane Broncos ($1.52) vs the New Zealand Warriors ($2.55) as I think the Warriors are much better than that. Although only playing the weak Cronulla Sharks team at home last weekend they were fairly clinical in putting their opponent away when many teams have struggled to do so against the Sharks in recent times. The Bronco’s meanwhile have been ordinary in their first 2 encounters with a come from behind win against the lowly Cowboys before struggling big time in losing to the Raiders last weekend. Warriors the best value bet for the weekend.
I find the next match intriguing between the Canterbury Bulldogs ($1.91) against the Sydney Roosters ($1.91). Betting says that these 2 are evenly matched but the Roosters are undefeated and gelling like a good team should whilst the Dogs are struggling with combinations and are starting worse than Belle du Jour in the 2000 Golden Slipper. However, the dogs have shown glimpses of what they can offer and would be very happy to be back at home where they had a formidable record last season. Tempting to jump on the Dogs but we’ll leave it for now.
Not interested in the battle of the cellar dwellers in Cronulla Sharks ($2.08) against the South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.75) although it is worth mentioning that the Sharks record at home on a Monday night is alot better than any other location or time of day.
Bets for the Weekend are:
ST GEORGE / ILLAWARA DRAGONS to beat the North QLD Cowboys by more than 10 points at $1.91 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% win)
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS to beat the Brisbane Broncos head to head at $2.55 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
TopPunter Racing Update
TopPunter subscribers have been receiving a superb Horse Racing service in recent times and today was no exception. Since TopPunter changed to the percentage based system the Managed Fund (Which follows exactly the tips sent out to subscribers) has seen subscribers make huge gains.
Today we gave 7 selections and finished with 4 winners and 2 seconds. Using the percentage based system our Horse Managed Fund made a 28% profit on today alone!
Here was today’s Early Mail tips:
2.10pm – Sandown Race 2 – 1. PAINT IT BLACK (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win) WINNER $3.20
3.02pm – Warrick Farm Race 4 – 7. FLASHING AURA (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way) 3rd $2.70 place
3.40pm – Warrick Farm Race 5 – 3. ALBERTINELLI (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win) 2nd
4.20pm – Warrick Farm Race 6 – 12. VIVA LAS (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win) WINNER $5.90
5.00pm – Warrick Farm Race 7 – 11. BOHEMIAN SPIRIT (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win) Unplaced
5.48pm – Eagle Farm Race 9 – 5. RED RAIDERS (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way) WINNER $6.60 / $1.90
This was all topped of by a Late Mail email going out during the afternoon with:
4.08pm – Morphettville Race 7 – 4. FINE CALIBRE (Horse Managed Fund 4% Win) WINNER $2.50
Another great day and we hope it all continues again tomorrow.
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March 23rd – PGA and European Tour Golf
I’ve got a nice early start on the golf this weekend so thought I would get my thoughts out there and give everyone the best chance to get on board.
The European Tour is heading to Spain for the Open de Andalucia de Golf at the Parador de Málaga Golf Club. It’s hard to get a real bearing again on the tournament as this tournament has not been held here in recent times. The only real read you can get on the tournament is from pictures and looking at the course guide which suggests that this is going to be a shoot out with a short course and flat greens suggesting there will be birdies everywhere. The weather hasn’t been great in the lead up with major rain soaking the course, however that is expected to improve for the weekend. Usually that measn that it will be preferred lies and players can aim straight at the pins with the soft greens. I would think the winner would have to shoot better than 20 under to win. MIGUEL ANGEL JIMENIZ ($19.50) is a Malaga native and should relish the conditions. PABLO MARTIN ($60) actually lives just down the road from the course and played many times as a child, however, after a strong start to the season with a win and a 6th place in the first 2 tournaments he has struggled in recent weeks. Unfortunately for Martin his father passed away after that strong start and he hasn’t found his game again since. Maybe staying back home and being in a comfortable place may help him lift. Others who will love the birdie fest include GARETH MAYBIN ($50), JEPPE HULDAHL ($110) and DANNY WILLET ($26) who found some good form last weekend.
In the PGA Tour we only have 2 weeks till the first major of the year in the Masters held at the great Augusta National and players will be keen to get their swing smooth ready to take on TIGER WOODS in his much awaited return. I would expect the skills needed to perform well at Augusta will be on display here and those featuring in the top of the pack will be who I will favour in a fortnights time. This weekend its the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and once again amazingly PHIL MICKELSON ($13.50) heads the betting by a long way and once again I am amazed. Phil won here way back in 1997 and has shown nothing this year to suggest he is a strong contender and worthy favourite each week LAY LAY LAY. If you don’t already have a Betfair account please click here and then contact me for information on use it as you really are missing out on some easy money backing people to lose rather than win! JIM FURYK ($24) has to be considered again after winning last weekend and will appreciate the toughness of this Palmer layout. For once I am not spruiking the chances of ROBERT ALLENBY ($32) who I expect will struggle with the imagination and skill needed around the greens. Even in his great form I wouldn’t be surprised to see him miss the cut this week. I was hoping for slightly higher odds but I like the chances of RETIEF GOOSEN ($36) not just this week but at the Masters as well (There is a $38 chance). JUSTIN ROSE ($46) has showed a level of consistency this year that I haven’t seen before and that says to me he in control of his game. He is a very talented golfer and if he gets on a wave he could beat anyone. Another golfer that if you see him playing well this weekend then get all over him to win the Masters. RICKIE FOWLER ($75) has come ahead in leaps and bounds in 2010 and is a player of the future. Appears to have a solid head on his shoulders and although I don’t think he has the mental strength to win hear I wouldn’t surprise to see him finish very high here.
Our bets are:
European Tour
DARREN CLARKE to beat Thomas Bjorn at $1.90 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
IGNACIO GARRIDO to beat Peter Lawrie at $1.90 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
GARETH MAYBIN to win Group C in 72 hole betting on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet) **Other players in group are Peter Lawrie, Bradley Dredge, Gregory Bourdy and Pablo Martin
PGA Tour
SEAN O’HAIR to beat Robert Allenby at $1.93 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 15% Bet)
JIM FURYK to beat Ernie Els at $1.93 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
JUSTIN ROSE to beat Graeme McDowell at $1.90 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
Formula 1 Returns to Bahrain – Qualifying Bet
Following Alonso’s speed in practice 3 we consider him to be a decent bet for qualifying. His odds on Betfair at this moment are around $3.25 – that’s over the odds considering his consistent pace and we expect him to be right in the mix.
$50 on at $3.25
Result: Third, but we are happy to saw we were outfoxed by Red Bull hiding their true pace. We’ll get on Vettel to win the race at $3.05 on Betfair. $100 on at $3.05
March 5th – Horse Racing
Once again the TopPunter Team has decided to share the knowledge with everyone on such a great days racing.
What a cracking days racing we have in store for us tomorrow. Obviously the main big races are at Flemington with 3 Group 1 events (Australia Cup, Newmarket and Australian Guineas) but Warrick Farm has put on a great meeting to really challenge it for class.
It gets off to a flying start with the opening race being a good test for the distance horses and I think we are on a real winner with our Early Mail selection in STRIKE ONE. The first Group race of the day for Warrick Farm is the Group 2 Surround Stakes and it is hands down MORE JOYOUS to the winning post. I expect to see more improvement from the talented youngster RUN FOR NAARA who should continue to improve as she goes up in distance. Connections of LITTLE SURFER GIRL have said they will be patient with here as well and expect to see large improvements in the coming weeks there. The Group 3 Kindergarten Stakes is usually a solid lead in event for the Golden Slipper in a few weeks time but I think the field is not as strong as in previous years. I am keen on GEORGETTE SILK as a Slipper contender so to prove me right it would have to put up a strong performance against one of the slipper favourites in SOLAR CHARGED. The 6th is the big one of the day for NSW in the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes and what a field they have put together. Chris Waller trains the 2 favourites in RANGIRANGDOO and DANLEIGH and it is likely that they will fight out the finish again. However, I’m not convinced this track suits either horse even though they both possess the fast sprint needed if you end up back in the field at the turn. I would definitely lean more towards Rangi than Danleigh if you forced me though. I think THESEO could really surprise with a great barrier draw almost certainly meaning he’ll be right there on the finishing turn. A number of the outsiders could easily finish the winner if they get the right run. Definitely one to watch and not throw your money away. The Group 3 City Cup keeps the quality fields going and I’m really keen to see how TRIPLE HONOUR finishes off its race. I have already had a good crack at this horse to win the Doncaster Mile next month and I expect to see slow progress over the coming month. Currently you can back Triple Honour to win the Doncaster at $67 on SportsBet and that is superb value for me. CENTENNIAL PARK is the early favourite and it’s hard to argue with it after its great form last spring when battling the big boys. I would’ve also considered DREAMSCAPE had it not drawn wide which is suicide at the tight Warrick Farm track.
Flemington starts of its day in style with the Group 3 Breeders Stake for the 2 year old fillies. SHAQEEQ is the strong favourite due to its close 2nd place finishes to quality horses in She’s Got Gears and Star Witness. I didn’t mind the opening run of SUBLIME GIRL and keen to see how it goes here too. The VRC Sires Produce Stakes is the 3rd race and another Group 2 race for the day. I’m really keen on IN FAITH here and have rung a couple of bookies to search for the best odds on this horse winning the Golden Slipper. As of yet In Faith isn’t nominated to run in the big race but after destroying both fields it has come across in its only 2 starts I wouldn’t be surprised to see it being a late entry if it won well again. The Group 2 Kewney Stakes is the next big race of the day and whilst there is a number of big names in here this race doesn’t really excite me right now. I definitely will watch the race but no money will leave my wallet here. The 6th race is the first of the three Group 1’s with the Newmarket Handicap and I could mention a dozen horses and still miss the winner. A great race and definitely won to watch. The Group 1’s continue with the Australian Guineas and the hot pot DENMAN will be hard to roll again. I haven’t heard any news but am curious as to why Denman has blown 20 points in early betting as there seems to be little money around. CARRARA must be sick of the site of Denman’s rear cause once again it’ll be doing the chasing here. Young gun LINTON impressed many with its huge win last start and this will be the acid test here. The Group 1 Australia Cup is next to go and a Caulfield Cup style field contests the big race. SHOCKING was ridden aggressively last start and just ran out of puff in the final 100m so I’d expect more improvement here. SIRMIONE has a brilliant record here with 2 wins and a 3rd from 3 starts. ZARITA is a model of consistency and is worth including in any multiples you decide to put on.
At Eagle Farm I’ll be interested to see if TELESTAH LA VISTAH takes its place in the 3rd after running a brilliant race at huge odds last weekend. While the horse did receive the run of the race it showed plenty of ability and could be a horse on the rise. I can’t really recommend anything else based on the Heavy 9 track. Looks like a favourites card at Morphettville without too many surprises there. Couldn’t really pinpoint a standout so I’ll leave it to you but I think if you back all the fav’s you’ll come out in front. Ascot is solid and very similar to Morphettville with favourites the key but I did managed to find some more confidence around a few chances. I could easily have had a 4th Early Mail selection there had FOR YOUR EYE’S ONLY drawn a bit better in the Group 3 Champion Fillies Stakes (7th).
Tomorrow’s Early Mail is:
12.55pm – Warrick Farm Race 1 – 2. STRIKE ONE (5% Win)
2.22pm – Eagle Farm Race 3 – 6. TELESTAH LA VISTAH (1% Each Way)
2.40pm – Flemington Race 3 – 2. IN FAITH (5% Win)
3.27pm – Ascot Race 1 – 1. MOTION PICTURES (5% Win)
5.15pm – Ascot Race 4 – 5. GALAXY QUEEN (3% Win)
6.45pm – Ascot Race 6 – 9. TRUCKIN TOBIE (3% Win)