March 25th – NRL Round 3 Preview and Bets
I will post the occasional NRL Round preview on the website but the majority will be saved purely for the TopPunter subscribers. Remeber at all times you can sign up for the the FREE month and get your hands on all the Sports and Horse racing tips for FREE!
Round 3 gets under way with the Wests Tigers ($2.35) taking on the Parramatta Eels ($1.60) and I think they have got the market about right. I liked the look of the Tigers after round one but got up to their old tricks in round 2 letting in 44 points against a resurgent Sydney Roosters side. With attacking power all over the field for the Eels and Tigers this is likely to be a similar score line and I would be backing overs for Total Points If the bar is set at 45 points or less. I would’ve been tempted to take the $2.35 about the Tigers had they played their home game at Leichardt or Campbelltown where there record is much stronger. The Sydney Football Stadium will not intimidate the Eels and in fact they may end up out supported.
It’s very hard to back against the St George / Illawarra Dragons ($1.33) to beat the North Queensland Cowboys ($3.30) but I really don’t like taking skinny odds so early in the season. However, the fact the Cowboys are away from home and the Dragons have been very clinical again this year it’s hard to see any other result. In fact giving the 9.5 points start away for a $1.91 payout looks like a very strong option especially when you consider that the strong defensive centre in Matt Cooper returns this week to shore up their back line.
Penrith Panthers ($2.05) vs Melbourne Storm ($1.78), Manly Sea Eagles ($1.62) vs Newcastle Knights ($2.30) and Gold Coast Titans ($1.28) vs Canberra Raiders ($3.65) are big passes with no value in odds.
I was really shocked to see the difference in odds between the Brisbane Broncos ($1.52) vs the New Zealand Warriors ($2.55) as I think the Warriors are much better than that. Although only playing the weak Cronulla Sharks team at home last weekend they were fairly clinical in putting their opponent away when many teams have struggled to do so against the Sharks in recent times. The Bronco’s meanwhile have been ordinary in their first 2 encounters with a come from behind win against the lowly Cowboys before struggling big time in losing to the Raiders last weekend. Warriors the best value bet for the weekend.
I find the next match intriguing between the Canterbury Bulldogs ($1.91) against the Sydney Roosters ($1.91). Betting says that these 2 are evenly matched but the Roosters are undefeated and gelling like a good team should whilst the Dogs are struggling with combinations and are starting worse than Belle du Jour in the 2000 Golden Slipper. However, the dogs have shown glimpses of what they can offer and would be very happy to be back at home where they had a formidable record last season. Tempting to jump on the Dogs but we’ll leave it for now.
Not interested in the battle of the cellar dwellers in Cronulla Sharks ($2.08) against the South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.75) although it is worth mentioning that the Sharks record at home on a Monday night is alot better than any other location or time of day.
Bets for the Weekend are:
ST GEORGE / ILLAWARA DRAGONS to beat the North QLD Cowboys by more than 10 points at $1.91 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% win)
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS to beat the Brisbane Broncos head to head at $2.55 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
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