April 29th – NRL Round 7 Preview
First of 2 matches on Friday night see the BRISBANE BRONCO’S ($1.50) vs NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS ($2.50) and many tipsters are tipping this to be a Brisbane whitewash but I’m not convinced. The Bronco’s have been less than impressive this season and some key injuries in their forward pack means many of the pack are playing out of position. The Knights in the meantime were terrible against the Sharks last weekend and have lost the spirit that they showed earlier in the season. I would expect an improved performance from both sides but you are playing lottery as to which team will turn up defensively. Add to that the distraction of Israel Falau in the papers this week and I am reminded of the thrashing the Bronco’s received at the hand of the Raiders last season when Karmichel Hunt announced his defection to the AFL. I’m probably just leaning towards Newcastle for the upset because of the odds.
The 2nd Friday night clash is a bottler with PARRAMATTA EELS ($1.46) vs CANTERBURY BULLDOGS ($2.75) and I am a little amazed at the price difference here. I have Parramatta a slight favourite since they are playing at home and the fact that 2 of the Bulldogs point scoring threats look dampened this weekend with an injury to Josh Morris and in form centre Jamal Idris being marked by the very strong and equal in form Timana Tahu. The forwards will get involved in a big bashing match as well with a lot of history and feeling between the 2 sides so the loss of Ben Hannant will also hurt the dogs but think this one is much closer than the betting suggests.
Betting has been suspended on most betting agencies on the NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS due to the fact that the Raiders have been crippled by late injuries to key players (Most notably Alan Tongue and Shaun Fensom). This will be devastating to a side that fell in a hole against South’s last week and I had already ear marked them as copping a real hiding. Betfair still has the market open and you can get $1.54 about the Warriors which is a real steal.
The GOLD COAST TITANS ($1.75) vs PENRITH PANTHERS ($2.10) is a very interesting encounter. Against I am leaning towards the outsiders here with the Panthers in great form recently while the Titans required a massive comeback to get over the line last weekend. I wonder how much the leak to the press, that the journalist who broke the Matt Johns saga last year is about to release her latest piece which has been based on the Scott Prince salary cap drama, is going to affect the Titans. Either way I like the look of a Panthers side that is brimming with local talent and it’s a shame they are almost certain to be decimated with a weak side during the representative rounds with up to 7 players considered strong chances of playing this year.
Is no surprise to see the market for the 3rd match on Super Saturday with the ST GEORGE / ILLAWARRA DRAGONS ($1.17) vs CRONULLA SHARKS ($5.25) as this looks to be a one sided affair. The Dragons have been the only consistent side in the competition this year while the Sharks have been dreadful for the most but managed to grind out an uninspiring win over a terrible Knights outfit last weekend. The only positive for the Sharks is going on recent matches between these 2 teams with the Sharks winning 3 of the last 4. In 2009 the Dragons won 10-6, 2008 The Sharks won both 13-12 and 18-16. While in 2007 the Sharks also won this time 20-16. As you can see every match has been hard fought and very tight so it’s hard to stick your neck out on the Dragons even though this has slaughter written all over it.
The final game for Saturday see the NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS ($2.25) vs MELBOURNE STORM ($1.67) and that price is almost enough for me to jump onto the Storm bandwagon. Obviously last weekend the players had something to prove to everyone that they were angry with what had happened and the Warriors were the hapless souls sent to the slaughter house but you’d have to say this week will be a lot tougher to keep the focus. Having said that I am amazed at some of the changes to the Cowboys line-up like dropping young gun Ray Thompson for Grant Rovelli even though he shows real promise. The injury to Carl Webb will also hurt the Cowboys side. I think the Storm will win this match in a high scoring affair.
Nobody would be game enough to pick the winner of the WEST TIGERS ($1.52) vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS ($2.60) since neither team seems to have a clue about how to defend. The Roosters have been damaged by the loss of halfback Mitchell Pearce and it has showed in their recent performances. Having said that they still have plenty of fire power to score tries for almost any situation. Having said that the tigers on paper should win most weekends with the only worry for me being Robbie Farah’s move into the halfback spot in a bold move by coach Tim Sheens. The big problem here is I think the Tigers will miss Farah’s input from the dummy half area and wonder how much running he will do from halfback. Liam Fulton has replaced Farah at hooker and while defensively he will be strong I wonder how he will go at directing the round the park. Still keen on the Tigers especially at Campbelltown where they’re always strong.
The final match of the round will be between the SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS ($2.24) vs MANLY SEA EAGLES ($1.66) and this time I really like the price of the favourites. South’s were nonexistent in the first half last weekend while Manly failed to finish off their game against the Titans suggesting this could be a game of 2 halves. However, one thing is for certain Des Hasler will have got stuck into his team about switching off early last weekend and I can’t see a repeat performance here. South’s have really only impressed me in 1 game this year when they were devastating against the Bulldogs but outside that they haven’t show me a side that can compete with the big sides for 80 mins. Manly to win by 12-16 points.
Our Bets are:
PENRITH PANTHERS to beat Gold Coast Titans (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
MELBOURNE STORM to beat North QLD Cowboys (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
MANLY SEA EAGLES to beat the South Sydney Rabbitohs (Sports Managed Fund 15% Bet)
SportsBet is at it again with another great promotion!!
Super Saturday - 17 April 2010.
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TopPunter Managed Fund
I’ve had a number of questions recently about the TopPunter Managed Fund’s so thought i would do a public post to give people a little bit more information. (A more detailed run down on how everything works is possible by emailing me at brad@toppunter.net
We have 2 different funds at TopPunter (Horse Racing and Sports). Both funds are independant of each other and clients are free to depoist into one or both depending on what there preference is. Every client is sent an email of every bet (before the event) so you can check for authenticity and keep your own records if you wished. At the end of the month clients are sent a detailed rundown on how many bets we had and how each of the funds performed. Clients are free to withdraw any funds at the end of every month should they not wish to continue or if they want to skim a little of the winnings off the top.
In recent months the Horse Racing Fund has been the big performer while Sports has been a bit disapointing over the Summer.
Here is an example of how we have performed in recent times.
OCTOBER
27 Bets with 13 winners (48% Strikerate)
Managed Fund increased 42%
NOVEMBER
34 Bets with 13 winners (38% Strikerate)
Managed Fund increased 29%
DECEMBER
44 Bets with 13 winners (30% Strikerate)
Managed Fund increased 3%
JANUARY
34 Bets with 13 winners (38% Strikerate)
Managed Fund increased 27%
FEBRUARY
32 Bets with 10 winners (31% Strikerate)
Managed Fund increased 14%
MARCH
30 Bets with 16 winners (53% Strikerate)
Managed Fund increased 38%
**If you had deposited $1000 into the Horse Managed Fund in October then your fund would now be worth over $3700. Thats a $2700 profit in just 6 months!
For more information email me at brad@toppunter.net to ask any questions.
April 9th – NRL Round 5 Preview and Bets
Week 5 in the NRL and there are some interesting prices on offer for us this weekend.
Friday night sees ST GEORGE ($1.12) take on the wounded BRISBANE BRONCO’S ($6.75) and all signs point to a Dragons victory. The only thing stopping jumping on the Dragons 13+ again is price ($1.48) and the record that teams have after playing Melbourne the week before.
The 2nd match of the night is much more appealing with the GOLD COAST TITANS ($2.60) taking on the MELBOURNE STORM ($1.52). It’s hard to see why The Storm are such generous odds after dismantling the 2nd favourites for the premiership in the Dragons last weekend. Meanwhile the Titans looked like a lost ship without Scott Prince at the helm. Prince is out again this weekend and I can see the same thing happening again.
Saturday night starts with SOUTH SYDNEY ($1.47) taking on the NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS ($2.75) and first signs point to a score fest with defence not a huge concern for either team. South’s were devastating against the Bulldogs last weekend and if there forward pack gets rolling this could get ugly. The knights meanwhile had a Jekyll and Hyde performance allowing the Panthers to storm home over the top for a big win after the Knights looked home and hosed at half-time. I’m going to leave betting on this match but I am tempted by the South 1-12 point win ($2.90) and assuming the weather holds getting on overs for total points.
I cannot believe the price of the BULLDOGS ($1.38) taking on the WARRIORS ($3.15) as I feel this match is a lot closer than that. The key indicator is what teams turn up to play. The Dogs admittedly just walked into a white hot South’s side last weekend while the Warriors were average at best against the Sea Eagles. No interest in betting here for me.
The final match of Saturday night is the COWBOYS ($1.77) taking on the WESTS TIGERS ($2.08) and although you never know which Tigers team will show up I was very impressed with the Cowboys last weekend when they finally gelled against the Titans. Jonathon Thurston found a great supporter in young gun Robert Thompson and I think with their massive forward pack they are going to make a real run at the premiership this year and could be a real bolter (Currently $27).
The remaining 3 games on Sunday and Monday have no interest for me at all in MANLY ($1.29) vs the SHARKS ($3.70), PENRITH PANTHERS ($1.80) taking on the ROOSTERS ($2.05) and finally PARRAMATTA EELS ($1.35) vs the CANBERRA RAIDERS ($3.30)
Our bets are:
MELBOURNE STORM to beat the Gold Coast Titans by 13+ at $2.90 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
Nth QLD COWBOYS to beat the Wests Tigers at $1.77 (Sports Managed Fund 15% Bet)
April 10th – AJC Derby Day (Horse Racing)
Once again rain puts a bit of a dampener on a great Randwick meeting.
We start with a real superstar on the rise in Al DHAFRA which would’ve been a bet bar the price. As I’ve stated a number of times I don’t like betting below $1.70 and I certainly am not keen to take on a $1.60 especially in the wet with no wet track experience. The breeding suggests it won’t be a problem but not worth the risk.
Race 2 sees our first bet of the day in MILITARY GIRL mainly due to the price. She can handle the track and with the rail in the true position there should be no leader bias. I think there are a couple of better chances in the race but at the big odds it was too good to resist. Maybe worth a triffecta with EUROPA POINT, VERBALLED and FLOWERCHILD.
The Group 3 McMahon Memorial Stakes is a very solid field which I will be watching with interest. MADAME PEDRILLE went to South Australia to contest the Group 1 Sangster and would have to be disappointed with its performance. After hitting the lead at the top of the straight the horse failed to finish off and was swamped in the final 100m. However, it has got a great record at Randwick and it loves the wet meaning it wouldn’t surprise to see it come out on top here. It does meet some very stiff opposition in MELITO and BEADED how are in red hot form at the moment.
The Group 1 TJ Smith Stakes is again a cracking field with some of the best sprinters in Australia contesting. HOT DANISH loves the Easter rain and always goes well on a wet track here while there has been very strong support for WANTED fresh off its win in the Group 1 Newmarket at Flemington. It is interesting to note it is carrying more weight than it has in its last 5 starts including a 5.5kg increase from the Newmarket win. It also doesn’t have the strongest record on wet tracks. MIC MAC has always performed well 1st up and should be right in this. Is untried on really wet tracks but did run a very close 5th to last week’s winner in DANLEIGH only a few starts ago.
Race 5 is a lottery and worth going really wide in a triffecta here. I would have to include GOLD WATER, SAINTHOOD, RECOUP DE FORTUNE and MARTIN PLACE (Massive odds at $51 for this horse).
I thought a few other horses would contest the Group 1 Sires Produce in the 6th but they have elected to pass. This leaves HINCHINBROOK a pretty solid selection after running on strongly in the Golden Slipper last weekend. The extra furlong will definitely help and its going to take a good run to beat him. The hot favourite is MORE STRAWBERRIES that many believe only lost the Slipper last weekend because Damien Oliver went for an inside run where the track was apparently worse off. Oliver has been dumped from the horse for Nash Rawiller who is known to give every horse the best chance so maybe worth going again (but not for me at that price). I have kept an eye on MAFIA MISS this season and I am expecting the extra distance and wet track will help.
The big race of the day is the 3rd Group 1 in the AJC Derby. Early favourite ZABRASIVE has been a little easy in betting even though it was strong in its win of the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas last start. I like SHOOT OUT but I think the trainer has bitten off more than he can chew here. Forget its last run when it didn’t get any favours as this horse loves the Randwick surface more with wins from its last 2 starts here. The step up to 2400m is a bit too ambitious but I’ll be keen to see how it handles it. I still like the look of EXTRA ZERO even at the huge odds. Don’t bet the farm on it but I would include I in any multiples you wish to put on. There has been a lot of support for Group 1 winning MONACO CONSUL after its return from an unsuccessful New Zealand campaign. I can’t see it right now but this horse has class on its side. ROCK CLASSIC hasn’t run a bad race in its last 5 starts so I would expect it to be somewhere abouts at the end. COUNT ENCOSTA has put 3 on the trot since winning its maiden in a lowly 1400m race at Kembla 3 starts back. Each time it has stepped up in class and distance and finished like a steam train to take the prize. Again up in distance and class here but a win wouldn’t shock at good odds.
I almost made HARRIS TWEED an each way bet in the 8th. It took on a better field in the BMW last start and I am expecting continued improvement with its 2nd run back in Australia this preparation. NO WINE NO SONG has also been battling the big boys so would enjoy this slight drop in class. The wet will be playing right into its hands as well as an perfect record of 3 wins from 3 starts at the track and distance. I think early favourite PRECEDENCE is worth a risk and could be worth laying. I doubt the price will stay low by the time the race kicks off and I wouldn’t even be surprised if it isn’t favourite by the time they jump. GET UP JUDE gets in very well at the weights and loves the rain so if the track stays wet this is definitely one of the multiples or a nice leg for a BIG 6.
I will not bet in the last with favourite SPEEDY NATALIE in the race. This horse is impossible to find and even the fact that it has been very strongly supported in betting I can’t bring myself to get involved. After buck jumping last start at Morphettville you are game to take the $2.25 on offer for a horse who has had only 1 start at the Randwick surface for an 8th.
All up not a bad day considering the track conditions. But beware. These meeting are notoriously dangerous and I would be more inclined to bet at Eagle Farm which looks to be a fairly straight forward card.
Our bets are:
12.30pm – Randwick Race 2 – 11. MILITARY GIRL (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
12.40pm – Eagle Farm Race 1 – 1. PYRAMIDS (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
1.19pm – Eagle Farm Race 2 – 4. CONQUEERING QUEEN (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
2.40pm – Flemington Race 5 – 5. SOUNDS OF NATURE (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
4.30pm – Eagle Farm Race 7 – 6. CASHOLET (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
7th April – SportsBet Augusta Masters (Tiger) Promotion
I received an email from SportsBet today offering a promotion to all TopPunter subscribers that I felt was worth passing on. If you haven’t already got a SportsBet account then now might be the time to jump on board by clicking here or the banner below.
Here is there promotion
BOOKIE TO REFUND ALL BETS IF TIGER WINS THE MASTERS
Leading online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au will refund all bets placed on the outright winner of the 2010 US Masters if Tiger Woods wins.
“It’s fair to say Tiger’s preparation hasn’t been ideal and we’re happy to take him on this week, so much so that we’re prepared to refund bets on everyone else in the field if Tiger wins,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.
“Taking a stance against Tiger is normally folly for a bookmaker, but we see this as our chance to finally get one back on him.”
Sportsbet.com.au is also offering the best price available on Tiger to win the Masters, currently at $6, with some other bookmakers posting as little as $4 on a Tiger victory.
In novelty markets, Sportsbet.com.au is offering $3 on Tiger to score 16 or more birdies at Augusta, $15 on him leading from start to finish, and $41 on him re-entering the clinic during the tournament.
Note: In November last year, Sportsbet.com.au paid out early on Tiger Woods to win the Australian Masters after two rounds when he was three strokes ahead. Woods faltered in the third round to share the lead with two others, before he shot clear on the final day to win the tournament.
Prices are subject to fluctuation.
7th April – US Masters – Augusta National (Golf)
I thought I would get in nice and early and share our thoughts with the general public this week as we have the first Major of the year on this weekend (Starting Thursday)
Augusta National can be a funny course and it’s hard to predict the scoring sometimes as it has difficult rough that can be murderous if you are constantly getting stuck in it. Add to that the lightning fast greens and players can be spending most of their day struggling to make par. However, as they are predicting rain on Thursday it just might take a little sting out of the course and providing there aren’t really strong winds around (Which aren’t predicted) then I’d say it will be important to get off to a good start.
A few players have fared well at Augusta in recent times so I’m going to focus my attention on them.
- TIGER WOODS ($5.70) – Haven’t seen him start at that higher price in a long time and it is actually tempting. He is a last start winner and has won here 4 times before including a heap of top 10 finishes to add to that. Not playing competition golf in long time would usually be a concern but Tiger would have been practicing a lot in his time away from the game and is well known to start well after a break.
- PHIL MICKELSON ($15.50) – Does rise to the occasion at Augusta and has had a great record here in the past but I would not spend a cent on him. Has been in erratic form this year and is a disappointment most times he steps out on the course. If he gets a sniff on Sunday he will be hard to beat but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him shoot 78 in the 1st round.
- ERNIE ELS ($17.50) – Probably the most interesting of the main hopes this week. Els has missed the cut at his last 3 attempts at Augusta but it’s fair to say his game was in limbo during that period. Back when in his prime this tournament was a favourite of his with top finishes in 2004 (2nd), 2003 (6th), 2002 (5th), 2001 (6th), 2000 (2nd) hard to ignore. It’s been very noticeable that in recent weeks he has found his game although I should also mention that Augusta was lengthened in 2005 which also might attribute to Els disappearance in recent times.
- PADRAIG HARRINGTON ($20.00) – Another odd one to try and catch. Harrington has also been struggling with his swing in the past couple of years from when he dominated the game back in 2006-2008 winning a number of majors. He has a couple of top 10 finishes here and he did find some form in the past couple of weeks but I wouldn’t be wasting any money on him.
- RETIEF GOOSEN ($26.00) – Goosen has been my pick from a long way out this year. He has a great short game, he can putt on glass and he has a great record here in recent years. Add to that the fact he’s been there abouts in recent tournaments and I really like our chances this year. He did miss the cut at Augusta last year but finished 17th in 2008, 2nd in 2007 and 3rd in 2006 and 2005. That screams that if he can get away to a decent start his silky putting stroke will be hard to topple on Sunday.
- LEE WESTWOOD ($26.00) – I really thought this would be the year for Westwood to win a major after winning the Race to Dubai in impressive fashion last year and starting 2010 off strongly but I haven’t been impressed with recent weeks. He is finding himself high up in the standings but I really don’t think he has the mental capacity to mix it on the big stage when the chips are thrown down. He has extreme talent so that can’t be ignored but I won’t be letting my money ride on him for some time yet.
- IAN POULTER ($42) – Not without a hope here after a strong start to the year. It’s hard to catch his form though with 4 top 10’s from 6 starts this season (including a win) but his other 2 starts were terrible finishing 64th and 69th. I guess the secret is if he is playing well in round one then consider him a chance. Has had 3 finishes inside the top 25 in the past 3 years suggesting he doesn’t mind the layout.
- VIJAY SINGH ($95.00) – Singh has never been one of my favourite golfers but he has had a good record here over the years with a number of high finishes. Might be worth a few bob at long odds.
- ANTHONY KIM ($4.00) – Kim has been crunched in after his win last weekend but I think it is wasted money. Sure Kim is a super talent but how he won last weekend is way beyond me. Anyone who watched any golf last weekend would have seen Kim’s woeful driving display that saw him average only 41% of fairways included a dismal 21% on Saturday when he still managed to shoot 3 under. Sure that means he scrambled well and we know he can putt but you won’t get away with that around here. Big time LAY!
- ANGEL CABRERA ($80.00) – It would be remise of me not to mention the defending champion but to be honest how can you read form from this man. His last couple of starts have been ordinary but then again he missed the cut the 2 tournaments prior to his win last year. He does also have 3 more top 10 finishes at Augusta.
- STEWART CINK ($110.00) – Probably the golfer I am most excited about after doing my form work into this weekend. I have never really followed Cink’s career even with his major win at the Open Championship last year but I couldn’t help but notice how often he appears on the leaderboard at Augusta National. He’s never really threatened apart from a 3rd place finish in 2008 but a high finish wouldn’t surprise at all.
- MATT KUCHAR ($95.00) – Is hard to go past considering his form this year. He has had back to back top 10 finishes in his last 2 tournaments to go with his 2nd and 3rd place finishes in the 1st two tournaments of the year. He hasn’t been to the Masters since 2002 where he missed the cut but he has a game that will be suited to this course and I think he will perform well.
- MIKE WEIR ($110.00) – The last golfer I am going to put on the preview although I do like a few more golfers which I will mention below. Weir is a previous winner here and has had a solid start to the year. He has been thereabouts in recent years here and again another high finish would be expected.
I hope that helps some of you out with your selections.
Our bets are:
ERNIE ELS to beat Phil Mickelson at $1.97 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
GEOFF OGILVY to beat Robert Allenby at $1.82 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
CHARL SCHWARTZEL to beat Anthony Kim at $1.95 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 15% Bet)
VIJAY SINGH to beat Nick Watney at $1.90 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
EDUARDO MOLINARI to beat Francesco Molinari at $1.90 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
Betting Agency Promotions
With Golden Slipper day on tomorrow many of you should be searching around the different betting agencies for promotions on offer as you could end up betting with their money in the number of FREE bets there are on offer. To take advantage of these offers simply click the respective banner.
Here are a few of the best options
Betfair as usual will give you the best odds of any of the agencies. It does take some time to learn how to use it but once you do it is such a valuable tool to use. The other advantage of Betfair at the moment is the fact you can bet in-running on all Metropolitan meetings. That means you can bet right up to the finishing post!
SportsBet has been a huge favourite of mine for a long time now with its crazy promotions that make it difficult not to get a FREE bet in some shape or form. If you don’t already have an account then if you join today you get your first bet FREE (up to the value of $100). So if you bet $100 on any race you will get $100 refunded back into your account. Plus you get another FREE bet of up to $100 based on the average of your next 10 bets.
Add to that the easter promotions of:
1. Back the Winner of the BMW race and win yourself a Bonus Free Bet matching your stake!
2. Cinderella’s Golden Slipper Refund:
Back a horse to Win or Each way, if the Slipper doesn’t fit, and your horse finishes 2nd in the Golden Slipper race, your bet stake will be refunded as cash into your Sportsbet account.
IASBet is slowly gaining ground on SportsBet and hass some great promotions in store for Golden Slipper day. Join today and deposit $50 and get $100 bonus. Just click on the banner below and use the promotion code FREEBET.
1. Back Military Rose for a win (City SuperPrice) in the Golden Slipper and if she runs second you get your money back, up to $200!
2. Place a Win (City SuperPrice) bet in the BMW, and if your horse runs second, get a 100% reload bonus up to $200
3. Have a crack at this 4 leg Multi and we’ll add an extra 25% bonus to your winnings!
Your multi must consist of:
1. A win bet on the BMW at Rosehill.
2. A win bet on the Golden Slipper at Rosehill.
3. Any AFL Round 2 Head to Head bet.
4. Any NRL Round 4 Head to Head bet.
April 2nd – Golden Slipper Day
Golden Slipper day has arrived and unfortunately so has the rain. The track at Rosehill is currently a Heavy 8 but they are expecting to upgrade to a Dead 7 at some stage today. I find Rosehill a funny track at times and definitely track form is key here.
We start in race 2 for the Schweppervescence Stakes and I’m glad to see that the owners of ZUTARA didn’t try and compete for the Slipper as the horse just can’t sprint that quickly. Without doubt this horse is going to win some races as it gets over a mile and longer. Today it races over 1400m and I think it’s a strong chance with the way it has been finishing off its races and with Nash Rawiller back on board you are going to get the best run for your money. Untried on the wet ground but the Encosta De Lago horses usually get through it well.
The first Group 1 of the day (Vinery Stud Stakes) is a great field and it’s hard to know where to look. I do like how RUN FOR NAARA is finishing off her races but she would have to be ridden well to find a good spot after drawing barrier 14. FAINT PERFUME was a class performer in last year’s spring carnival as well but both these horses haven’t gone that well at the Rosehill track or in the wet. INDIAN OCEAN could run a cheeky race at around $67.
Back to back Group 1’s are upon us with the running of the Queen of the Turf Stakes. Again the track plays a major part in this race with the Supper Filly TYPHOON TRACY the hot favourite. Typhoon Tracy is untried on the wet going and it is the only concern for a horse that has taken all before it again this season. Here it meets some horses who are proven in the wet and the track so this will be a test if it’s not on its a game. Notable mentions are NEROLI, MONTANA FLYER and MORE JOYOUS.
Group 1 number 3 is next with the BMW set over 2400m. Favourite THESEO is a big favourite of mine but I just can’t see it being able to run out a solid 2400m against this quality of field. HARRIS TWEED is well placed here and I am very tempted to get on board at the $9.00 mark but wouldn’t mind seeing it have one run in Australia this preparation before backing him (A lot of ticks is his box here though).
The George Ryder Stakes is Group 1 number 4 for the day and I can’t believe DANLEIGH has been installed as favourite. Although it beat Rangirangdoo a few starts ago and Rangi has gone on to frank that form but the very next start it had every opportunity to win the race after having a great ride and didn’t finish it off. Meets a much better field here too. I was leaning towards BLACK PIRANHA, HEART OF DREAMS and VISION AND POWER before scrolling right to the bottom with TICKETS who should run a great race of tidy odds of $17.
The GOLDEN SLIPPER is the 5th Group 1 race of the day and as always this is a tough race to read. The way MILITARY ROSE won last start it is easy to see how she has been given the favouritism tag but I never like taking the short odds in a slipper race as these horses are generally still pretty green and especially with the state of the track anything could really happen. HITCHINBROOK was beaten by one of the more fancied runners in BRIGHT EXPECTATIONS last start but I prefer to look at the previous time they met on a wet track when Hitchinbrook came home first and looked a strong Slipper contender. I told subscribers to get on BENETEAU a long time ago and I still haven’t given up on him. Should handle the track and will be running home late. I am still amazed that CHANCE BYE is not shorter in the market than the $13 being offered. This horse has beaten all opposition in its 3 starts to date in commanding fashion and with 2 of those runs being at Rosehill I think she is a major player again here. Will be right up on the hot speed and will be tough to gun down when the whips are cracking down the straight. I can’t believe there is money coming for SOLAR CHARGED after its performance last weekend. I’ll be laying that one. GEORGETTE SILK got involved in a ridiculous speed battle last weekend and will be all the better for it this week. Just ran out of condition in the final 100m, which was to be expected, but now comes in here at the huge odds of $67 and with wet form under its belt.
SWIFT ALLIANCE came very close to being our 2nd bet of the day at Rosehill but I’m just a little worried about the favourite in WELKOM GOLD along with the bottom 2 horses in MORE THAN GREAT and ALTERED BOY who all get it very well with the weights.
Caulfield look like one of those dangerous meetings to me. Bet there with caution. Eagle Farm didn’t really spark any interest for me. Over at Ascot we have some really great races starting with the Gimcrack Stakes which sees some of the best young talent in the west in MOTION PICTURES, TIME TO CLIMB and MISS CONDITION battle each other. I’m sure this will be a great form race later on. MARASCO gets a chance to strut his stuff again in the 5th race and I think the bookies have this spot on with the big gelding an extremely short favourite. Was great to see him win so well a fortnight ago in the Group 3 Hyperion and I can only hope this is the sign that he’s got his head back in the game.
Our Early Mail is:
12.25pm – Rosehill Race 2 – 2. ZUTARA (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
12.35pm – Eagle Farm Race 1 – 2. CORNWELL PARK (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
2.05pm – Caulfield Race 4 – 7. DEFINITELY READY (Horse Managed Fund 5% win) *we’ll take the fixed odds of $1.80 now.
2.55pm – Oakbank Race 5 – 1. TRAMUNTANA (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
5.10pm – Caulfield Race 8 – 5. NETRA (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
6.55pm – Ascot Race 6 – 3. SIGNIFICANT (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)