April 2nd – Golden Slipper Day
Golden Slipper day has arrived and unfortunately so has the rain. The track at Rosehill is currently a Heavy 8 but they are expecting to upgrade to a Dead 7 at some stage today. I find Rosehill a funny track at times and definitely track form is key here.
We start in race 2 for the Schweppervescence Stakes and I’m glad to see that the owners of ZUTARA didn’t try and compete for the Slipper as the horse just can’t sprint that quickly. Without doubt this horse is going to win some races as it gets over a mile and longer. Today it races over 1400m and I think it’s a strong chance with the way it has been finishing off its races and with Nash Rawiller back on board you are going to get the best run for your money. Untried on the wet ground but the Encosta De Lago horses usually get through it well.
The first Group 1 of the day (Vinery Stud Stakes) is a great field and it’s hard to know where to look. I do like how RUN FOR NAARA is finishing off her races but she would have to be ridden well to find a good spot after drawing barrier 14. FAINT PERFUME was a class performer in last year’s spring carnival as well but both these horses haven’t gone that well at the Rosehill track or in the wet. INDIAN OCEAN could run a cheeky race at around $67.
Back to back Group 1’s are upon us with the running of the Queen of the Turf Stakes. Again the track plays a major part in this race with the Supper Filly TYPHOON TRACY the hot favourite. Typhoon Tracy is untried on the wet going and it is the only concern for a horse that has taken all before it again this season. Here it meets some horses who are proven in the wet and the track so this will be a test if it’s not on its a game. Notable mentions are NEROLI, MONTANA FLYER and MORE JOYOUS.
Group 1 number 3 is next with the BMW set over 2400m. Favourite THESEO is a big favourite of mine but I just can’t see it being able to run out a solid 2400m against this quality of field. HARRIS TWEED is well placed here and I am very tempted to get on board at the $9.00 mark but wouldn’t mind seeing it have one run in Australia this preparation before backing him (A lot of ticks is his box here though).
The George Ryder Stakes is Group 1 number 4 for the day and I can’t believe DANLEIGH has been installed as favourite. Although it beat Rangirangdoo a few starts ago and Rangi has gone on to frank that form but the very next start it had every opportunity to win the race after having a great ride and didn’t finish it off. Meets a much better field here too. I was leaning towards BLACK PIRANHA, HEART OF DREAMS and VISION AND POWER before scrolling right to the bottom with TICKETS who should run a great race of tidy odds of $17.
The GOLDEN SLIPPER is the 5th Group 1 race of the day and as always this is a tough race to read. The way MILITARY ROSE won last start it is easy to see how she has been given the favouritism tag but I never like taking the short odds in a slipper race as these horses are generally still pretty green and especially with the state of the track anything could really happen. HITCHINBROOK was beaten by one of the more fancied runners in BRIGHT EXPECTATIONS last start but I prefer to look at the previous time they met on a wet track when Hitchinbrook came home first and looked a strong Slipper contender. I told subscribers to get on BENETEAU a long time ago and I still haven’t given up on him. Should handle the track and will be running home late. I am still amazed that CHANCE BYE is not shorter in the market than the $13 being offered. This horse has beaten all opposition in its 3 starts to date in commanding fashion and with 2 of those runs being at Rosehill I think she is a major player again here. Will be right up on the hot speed and will be tough to gun down when the whips are cracking down the straight. I can’t believe there is money coming for SOLAR CHARGED after its performance last weekend. I’ll be laying that one. GEORGETTE SILK got involved in a ridiculous speed battle last weekend and will be all the better for it this week. Just ran out of condition in the final 100m, which was to be expected, but now comes in here at the huge odds of $67 and with wet form under its belt.
SWIFT ALLIANCE came very close to being our 2nd bet of the day at Rosehill but I’m just a little worried about the favourite in WELKOM GOLD along with the bottom 2 horses in MORE THAN GREAT and ALTERED BOY who all get it very well with the weights.
Caulfield look like one of those dangerous meetings to me. Bet there with caution. Eagle Farm didn’t really spark any interest for me. Over at Ascot we have some really great races starting with the Gimcrack Stakes which sees some of the best young talent in the west in MOTION PICTURES, TIME TO CLIMB and MISS CONDITION battle each other. I’m sure this will be a great form race later on. MARASCO gets a chance to strut his stuff again in the 5th race and I think the bookies have this spot on with the big gelding an extremely short favourite. Was great to see him win so well a fortnight ago in the Group 3 Hyperion and I can only hope this is the sign that he’s got his head back in the game.
Our Early Mail is:
12.25pm – Rosehill Race 2 – 2. ZUTARA (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
12.35pm – Eagle Farm Race 1 – 2. CORNWELL PARK (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
2.05pm – Caulfield Race 4 – 7. DEFINITELY READY (Horse Managed Fund 5% win) *we’ll take the fixed odds of $1.80 now.
2.55pm – Oakbank Race 5 – 1. TRAMUNTANA (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
5.10pm – Caulfield Race 8 – 5. NETRA (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
6.55pm – Ascot Race 6 – 3. SIGNIFICANT (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
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