April 10th – AJC Derby Day (Horse Racing)
Once again rain puts a bit of a dampener on a great Randwick meeting.
We start with a real superstar on the rise in Al DHAFRA which would’ve been a bet bar the price. As I’ve stated a number of times I don’t like betting below $1.70 and I certainly am not keen to take on a $1.60 especially in the wet with no wet track experience. The breeding suggests it won’t be a problem but not worth the risk.
Race 2 sees our first bet of the day in MILITARY GIRL mainly due to the price. She can handle the track and with the rail in the true position there should be no leader bias. I think there are a couple of better chances in the race but at the big odds it was too good to resist. Maybe worth a triffecta with EUROPA POINT, VERBALLED and FLOWERCHILD.
The Group 3 McMahon Memorial Stakes is a very solid field which I will be watching with interest. MADAME PEDRILLE went to South Australia to contest the Group 1 Sangster and would have to be disappointed with its performance. After hitting the lead at the top of the straight the horse failed to finish off and was swamped in the final 100m. However, it has got a great record at Randwick and it loves the wet meaning it wouldn’t surprise to see it come out on top here. It does meet some very stiff opposition in MELITO and BEADED how are in red hot form at the moment.
The Group 1 TJ Smith Stakes is again a cracking field with some of the best sprinters in Australia contesting. HOT DANISH loves the Easter rain and always goes well on a wet track here while there has been very strong support for WANTED fresh off its win in the Group 1 Newmarket at Flemington. It is interesting to note it is carrying more weight than it has in its last 5 starts including a 5.5kg increase from the Newmarket win. It also doesn’t have the strongest record on wet tracks. MIC MAC has always performed well 1st up and should be right in this. Is untried on really wet tracks but did run a very close 5th to last week’s winner in DANLEIGH only a few starts ago.
Race 5 is a lottery and worth going really wide in a triffecta here. I would have to include GOLD WATER, SAINTHOOD, RECOUP DE FORTUNE and MARTIN PLACE (Massive odds at $51 for this horse).
I thought a few other horses would contest the Group 1 Sires Produce in the 6th but they have elected to pass. This leaves HINCHINBROOK a pretty solid selection after running on strongly in the Golden Slipper last weekend. The extra furlong will definitely help and its going to take a good run to beat him. The hot favourite is MORE STRAWBERRIES that many believe only lost the Slipper last weekend because Damien Oliver went for an inside run where the track was apparently worse off. Oliver has been dumped from the horse for Nash Rawiller who is known to give every horse the best chance so maybe worth going again (but not for me at that price). I have kept an eye on MAFIA MISS this season and I am expecting the extra distance and wet track will help.
The big race of the day is the 3rd Group 1 in the AJC Derby. Early favourite ZABRASIVE has been a little easy in betting even though it was strong in its win of the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas last start. I like SHOOT OUT but I think the trainer has bitten off more than he can chew here. Forget its last run when it didn’t get any favours as this horse loves the Randwick surface more with wins from its last 2 starts here. The step up to 2400m is a bit too ambitious but I’ll be keen to see how it handles it. I still like the look of EXTRA ZERO even at the huge odds. Don’t bet the farm on it but I would include I in any multiples you wish to put on. There has been a lot of support for Group 1 winning MONACO CONSUL after its return from an unsuccessful New Zealand campaign. I can’t see it right now but this horse has class on its side. ROCK CLASSIC hasn’t run a bad race in its last 5 starts so I would expect it to be somewhere abouts at the end. COUNT ENCOSTA has put 3 on the trot since winning its maiden in a lowly 1400m race at Kembla 3 starts back. Each time it has stepped up in class and distance and finished like a steam train to take the prize. Again up in distance and class here but a win wouldn’t shock at good odds.
I almost made HARRIS TWEED an each way bet in the 8th. It took on a better field in the BMW last start and I am expecting continued improvement with its 2nd run back in Australia this preparation. NO WINE NO SONG has also been battling the big boys so would enjoy this slight drop in class. The wet will be playing right into its hands as well as an perfect record of 3 wins from 3 starts at the track and distance. I think early favourite PRECEDENCE is worth a risk and could be worth laying. I doubt the price will stay low by the time the race kicks off and I wouldn’t even be surprised if it isn’t favourite by the time they jump. GET UP JUDE gets in very well at the weights and loves the rain so if the track stays wet this is definitely one of the multiples or a nice leg for a BIG 6.
I will not bet in the last with favourite SPEEDY NATALIE in the race. This horse is impossible to find and even the fact that it has been very strongly supported in betting I can’t bring myself to get involved. After buck jumping last start at Morphettville you are game to take the $2.25 on offer for a horse who has had only 1 start at the Randwick surface for an 8th.
All up not a bad day considering the track conditions. But beware. These meeting are notoriously dangerous and I would be more inclined to bet at Eagle Farm which looks to be a fairly straight forward card.
Our bets are:
12.30pm – Randwick Race 2 – 11. MILITARY GIRL (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
12.40pm – Eagle Farm Race 1 – 1. PYRAMIDS (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
1.19pm – Eagle Farm Race 2 – 4. CONQUEERING QUEEN (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
2.40pm – Flemington Race 5 – 5. SOUNDS OF NATURE (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
4.30pm – Eagle Farm Race 7 – 6. CASHOLET (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
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