April 29th – NRL Round 7 Preview
First of 2 matches on Friday night see the BRISBANE BRONCO’S ($1.50) vs NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS ($2.50) and many tipsters are tipping this to be a Brisbane whitewash but I’m not convinced. The Bronco’s have been less than impressive this season and some key injuries in their forward pack means many of the pack are playing out of position. The Knights in the meantime were terrible against the Sharks last weekend and have lost the spirit that they showed earlier in the season. I would expect an improved performance from both sides but you are playing lottery as to which team will turn up defensively. Add to that the distraction of Israel Falau in the papers this week and I am reminded of the thrashing the Bronco’s received at the hand of the Raiders last season when Karmichel Hunt announced his defection to the AFL. I’m probably just leaning towards Newcastle for the upset because of the odds.
The 2nd Friday night clash is a bottler with PARRAMATTA EELS ($1.46) vs CANTERBURY BULLDOGS ($2.75) and I am a little amazed at the price difference here. I have Parramatta a slight favourite since they are playing at home and the fact that 2 of the Bulldogs point scoring threats look dampened this weekend with an injury to Josh Morris and in form centre Jamal Idris being marked by the very strong and equal in form Timana Tahu. The forwards will get involved in a big bashing match as well with a lot of history and feeling between the 2 sides so the loss of Ben Hannant will also hurt the dogs but think this one is much closer than the betting suggests.
Betting has been suspended on most betting agencies on the NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS due to the fact that the Raiders have been crippled by late injuries to key players (Most notably Alan Tongue and Shaun Fensom). This will be devastating to a side that fell in a hole against South’s last week and I had already ear marked them as copping a real hiding. Betfair still has the market open and you can get $1.54 about the Warriors which is a real steal.
The GOLD COAST TITANS ($1.75) vs PENRITH PANTHERS ($2.10) is a very interesting encounter. Against I am leaning towards the outsiders here with the Panthers in great form recently while the Titans required a massive comeback to get over the line last weekend. I wonder how much the leak to the press, that the journalist who broke the Matt Johns saga last year is about to release her latest piece which has been based on the Scott Prince salary cap drama, is going to affect the Titans. Either way I like the look of a Panthers side that is brimming with local talent and it’s a shame they are almost certain to be decimated with a weak side during the representative rounds with up to 7 players considered strong chances of playing this year.
Is no surprise to see the market for the 3rd match on Super Saturday with the ST GEORGE / ILLAWARRA DRAGONS ($1.17) vs CRONULLA SHARKS ($5.25) as this looks to be a one sided affair. The Dragons have been the only consistent side in the competition this year while the Sharks have been dreadful for the most but managed to grind out an uninspiring win over a terrible Knights outfit last weekend. The only positive for the Sharks is going on recent matches between these 2 teams with the Sharks winning 3 of the last 4. In 2009 the Dragons won 10-6, 2008 The Sharks won both 13-12 and 18-16. While in 2007 the Sharks also won this time 20-16. As you can see every match has been hard fought and very tight so it’s hard to stick your neck out on the Dragons even though this has slaughter written all over it.
The final game for Saturday see the NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS ($2.25) vs MELBOURNE STORM ($1.67) and that price is almost enough for me to jump onto the Storm bandwagon. Obviously last weekend the players had something to prove to everyone that they were angry with what had happened and the Warriors were the hapless souls sent to the slaughter house but you’d have to say this week will be a lot tougher to keep the focus. Having said that I am amazed at some of the changes to the Cowboys line-up like dropping young gun Ray Thompson for Grant Rovelli even though he shows real promise. The injury to Carl Webb will also hurt the Cowboys side. I think the Storm will win this match in a high scoring affair.
Nobody would be game enough to pick the winner of the WEST TIGERS ($1.52) vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS ($2.60) since neither team seems to have a clue about how to defend. The Roosters have been damaged by the loss of halfback Mitchell Pearce and it has showed in their recent performances. Having said that they still have plenty of fire power to score tries for almost any situation. Having said that the tigers on paper should win most weekends with the only worry for me being Robbie Farah’s move into the halfback spot in a bold move by coach Tim Sheens. The big problem here is I think the Tigers will miss Farah’s input from the dummy half area and wonder how much running he will do from halfback. Liam Fulton has replaced Farah at hooker and while defensively he will be strong I wonder how he will go at directing the round the park. Still keen on the Tigers especially at Campbelltown where they’re always strong.
The final match of the round will be between the SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS ($2.24) vs MANLY SEA EAGLES ($1.66) and this time I really like the price of the favourites. South’s were nonexistent in the first half last weekend while Manly failed to finish off their game against the Titans suggesting this could be a game of 2 halves. However, one thing is for certain Des Hasler will have got stuck into his team about switching off early last weekend and I can’t see a repeat performance here. South’s have really only impressed me in 1 game this year when they were devastating against the Bulldogs but outside that they haven’t show me a side that can compete with the big sides for 80 mins. Manly to win by 12-16 points.
Our Bets are:
PENRITH PANTHERS to beat Gold Coast Titans (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
MELBOURNE STORM to beat North QLD Cowboys (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
MANLY SEA EAGLES to beat the South Sydney Rabbitohs (Sports Managed Fund 15% Bet)
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
Read more
« SportsBet is at it again with another great promotion!!
May 7th – TopPunter Tip of the Day »