May 25th – European and PGA Tour Review
A tough read this weekend for the European Tour this week as it hosts the Madrid Masters. The reason this is such a tough course to read is its only the 2nd time they have played the Madrid Masters here at the Real Sociedad Hípica Club de Campo. Not only that but the course plays fairly short for much of the time and most people will keep the driver in the bag for much of the course. This makes it hard to read who are the best players for accuracy off the tee as some players have a low percentage with the driver but put a 3 wood in their hand and they rarely miss. Length is still going to be important as the greens here in Madrid. I think the player who stands out for me is our old favourite in MARTIN KAYMER ($17.00) who makes his return to the European Tour after an average month on the PGA Tour. Kaymer has a very strong 3 wood game and loves playing on the European Tour. He finished 16th here 2 years ago and to be honest the only thing that puts me off slightly is the fact that they are expecting rain over the weekend and Kaymer definitely plays better when the weather is warmer. ALAVARO QUIROS ($23.00) does hit a mean drive but should also appreciate the drop to a 3 wood. This means he will still be able to hit long off the tee giving him a great advantage over those having to hit long irons in. Quiros proved that here 2 years ago when finishing 4th. He has been playing well this year and will love being back in his home country. A player who has performed well for us this year and is in great form is IGNACIO GARRIDO ($51.00). Garrido is an accurate striker of the golf ball so this course should suit. He finished 10th here 2 years ago and of course is another who should feel at home back in Spain. He has a string of 6 finishes in the top 25 before last weekend dreadful 131st but I wouldn’t be too worried about that. When he isn’t in contention or the track doesn’t suit he does have a tendency to turn his toes up. Another player who rides on the emotion of returning home is RAFAEL CABRERA BELLO ($81.00) who also boasts a top 10 finish here in 2008. Could be worth a run at the long odds.
Before I move on to the PGA Tour I thought I’d share this story from last weekend’s BMW PGA Championship on the European Tour. Robert Karlsson convinced himself he’d missed the cut in last week’s BMW PGA and he headed home to Monaco. Only to find out he made it. What transpired — shades of Darren Clarke in Spain — was crazy. Almost as crazy as his trip to the event — a 900-mile car trip to avoid volcanic ash problems. So, to recount… Karlsson arrived home, found out he’d made the cut, missed the last flight back out, had another one cancelled, found one to Orly and arrived at 1 a.m. He took a pre-dawn taxi ride — the cabbie got lost — to Heathrow for a £7,000,-plus private plane ride and made it to Wentworth at 7 a.m. Then shot 62. Is it really that hard to wait until they make the cut?
The PGA Tour stays in Texas for the Crowne Plaza International at Colonial and for those who don’t watch golf very often this is the tournament for you as there are birdies everywhere. Tee times aren’t released yet but look for those who have an early tee time for Round 1. Could be a good option to get on someone and hope they go low so you can lay them off (On Betfair) for round 2. The other option which could work out well is watching the first round and pick someone who shoots ok in the afternoon during Round 1 so they can make a big move in round 2. The reason I say this is the course has always allowed people to shoot low when the conditions are mild, which is what you get in the mornings in Texas.
STEVE STRIKER ($23.00) is considered one of the favourites but is not talked about as a potential winner here even though he is the defending champ. The reason for this is his lack of form in recent times but I think this could be the turning point for his season. Many players relish going back to places they have a good record at and Striker could easily capitalise on this. I’d be crazy if I didn’t mention PHIL MICKELSON ($8.50) who should really win this tournament on his ear. He didn’t contest here last year after his wife became ill with cancer but was the 2008 champion. He will be busy with the media with a “Pink Day” but Phil should be used to this. Many know I’m not a huge favourite of his but you’d be nuts to bet against him this week. JASON DAY ($61.00) has to mentioned after scoring his maiden win last weekend. It is worth mentioning that he finished only 1 shot off the win last year so he obviously likes the course. Last year’s runner-up TIM CLARK ($23.00) knows how to make birdies and as the tours most accurate driver and 2nd in putting you know that he is going to get a look at a lot of birdies. FREDDIE JACOBSON ($67.00) is starting to reach some of his old form in recent weeks and loves getting on a birdie role so watch out for him here too.
Our bets this weekend are:
MARTIN KAYMER to beat Alejandro Canizares at $1.83 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)
ALVARO QUIROS to beat Sergio Garcia at $1.93 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)
IGANACIO GARRIDO to beat Gareth Maybin at $1.90 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% win)
MIKE WEIR to beat Bill Haas, Vijay Singh, Paul Goydos and Steve Elkington (Group E-72 hole betting) at $4.50 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Win)
FREDDIE JACOBSON to finish in the Top25 at Colonial at $3.25 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Win)
May 18th – European and PGA Tour Preview and Bets
A superb weekend for golf with 2 huge tournaments in Both Europe and USA so we’ve decided to go public with our preview and bets
In Europe we have the BMW PGA Championship which is arguably the biggest event in Europe outside the Open Championship and as such the host club (Wentworth)attracts a quality field every year. The interesting thing here will be the greens which are all brand new from last year. I would expect them to be a bit slower than in previous years so the emphasis on putting won’t be as strong. Solid driving always helps, although fairly wide fairways make that not too much of a challenge. But good ball striking will be the key with a couple of makeable (in 2) Par 5’s and greens in regulation will help attack the slow greens for birdies. The course is one shot shorter this year with the 12th hole changed from a Par 5 to a Par 4 whilst the addition of water on the 18th will make it a little tougher to find that last ditch eagle on what used to be an easily reachable Par 5.
Although the course has changed we still look towards those who’ve played well or poorly in previous years. Interestingly favourite LEE WESTWOOD ($12.00) has not enjoyed playing at this course in recent times with finishes of 149th and 134th in his last 2 attempts here. RORY McILROY ($13.00) is the 2nd favourite and has had an interesting history at this course and this year. McIlroy started the year will with 2 top 10 finishes in his first 2 tournaments on the European Tour before taking on the PGA Tour where he missed 3 cuts and had a win in his 4 starts there. Likewise he finished very high up the leaderboard with a 5th here last year which kick started a strong stretch that saw plenty of top10 finishes including the US Open (10th) and US PGA (3rd). However, in 2008 he was playing well prior to a dreadful 116th. PAUL CASEY ($18.00) won here last year and has finishes of 9th,10th,11th and 12th in the past 10 years to his resume. I’ve never regarded him as a great putter so these greens should help him out here and I would think he is in this up to his eyeballs. Before his dreadful 80th at the Masters he did finish 6th,2nd, 11th and 5th in his prior European Tour events and 4th and 6th on the PGA Tour at the same time suggesting his swing in 2010 is where it should be. CHARL SCWARTZEL ($30.00) has been a long time favourite of the TopPunter crew and he will love the layout here at Wentworth. Interestingly it is since the last revamp of the course that he started to enjoy it more as his early starts here were woeful. In recent times though he has recorded a couple of top 20’s and although I think his overall price is a little skinny I think he could really shine here this year. PADRAIG HARRINGTON ($26.00) has always played well here but never threatened for a title with 4 top 25 finishes. The past 2 years he seems to still be battling his driver and will produce moments of brilliance before dropping 3 or 4 shots in a couple of holes. He needs to keep that together to be a contender here. MIGUEL ANGEL JIMENEZ ($44.00) is the first of the value golfers with a brilliant record here and another who will love the decreasing emphasis on putting. His past 3 attempts here have resulted in a win, 5th and 3rd which proves that point. ROBERT KARLSSON ($65.00) could be one to follow for the head to head with regular appearances here giving him good knowledge of the course. He has also has 6 finishes inside the top 50 including a 3rd here a few years ago. This has been a regular stop for veteran Aussie RICHARD GREEN ($160.00) with 8 visits here in the past 10 years. Of those 8 visits he hasn’t finished worse than 33rd and has 3 top 10’s to add to that. He is a real contender and worth backing at the each way price (For a top 10 or 20 finish). NICLAS FASTH ($250.00) is the last golfer I will focus on but not because he is the worst chance here. At a huge price Fasth could really be one to follow as like Green he has spent alot of time here (7 attempts in the past 10 years). In that time the worst finish he has had is 35th. Another really good long shot.
Meanwhile the PGA Tour hosts the Byron Nelson Classic which has seen some of the best golfers take the title in the past. Unfortunately for some reason most of the top line golfers on the PGA Tour have avoided it this week. For that reason I am a little less excited about delving deep into the form of these golfers but maybe just look a few of the golfers who have finished high here in the past. RORY SABBATINI ($46.00) is the defending champion but hasn’t been in great form but that’s nothing new for Sabbatini. He is definitely a golfer you take on trust as form means nothing to him. He missed the cut in 2008 but then finished 3rd here in 2007. A couple more Top 25 finishes are surrounded by some over 50’s so it’s definitely more a feel thing than a love for the course. Maybe look at him if he starts to fire in the first round. VIJAY SINGH ($80.00) is a prior winner here in 2004 and then backed it up with a 3rd in 2005. He had a couple more top 20 finishes in recent times but you’d be game to stick your money on him the way he is playing at the moment. SCOTT VERPLANK ($44.00) seems a better choice than the others with a win here in 2008. He has also had 3 more top 10 finishes in the past 10 years and is in reasonable form in 2010 with a 13th at the Players Championship his last result. A very consistent golfer who is often there or there abouts on courses that suit him. The golfer I’ll feature was a contender last weekend in Texas before fading away in the final round. BRETT WETTERICH ($75.00) is a former winner here and obviously is hitting the ball well. In 2005, 2006 and 2007 he hit a purple patch at the Byron Nelson with finishes of 18th, 1st and 10th respectively. Might be one to consider for the long shot punters.
**Note: Prices quoted above are courtesy of Betfair, however, all bets below are placed with SportsBet.
Our Bets this week are:
RICHARD GREEN to finish in the Top 25 in the BMW PGA CHAMPIONSHIP at $4.50 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
NICLAS FASTH to finish in the Top 25 at the BMW PGA CHAMPIONSHIP at $5.00 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
CHARL SCWARTZEL to beat Francesco Molinari at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
MIGUEL ANGEL JIMENEZ to beat Justin Rose at $1.85 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
RICHARD GREEN to beat Wen-Chong Liang at $1.80 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
SCOTT VERPLANK to finish in the Top 25 at the Byron Nelson Classic at $2.50 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
May 14th – NRL Round 10 Preview
Who’s want to be a NRL tipster this year. Every week there are a number of games when you might as well toss a coin up in the air and see how it falls. Luckily we aren’t getting dragged into betting for the sake of betting and it has proven successful with 4 wins from 7 bets and a 15% profit on investment so far. Again this weekend looks tough but
Before last weekend The Brisbane Broncos ($1.87) would have been $4.00 against the Gold Coast Titans ($1.97) tonight but after dismantling an ordinary Melbourne Storm they are suddenly favourites in the QLD derby. I am very tempted to back the Titans but the truth of the matter is the Bronco’s have a lot going for them. Quality forwards guided round by Quality halves with a young fast backline that most clubs would kill for and if last week was there turning point then this is the key to getting on a roll. If the Broncos win and win well tonight then expect them to make a real charge back to the top of the table and a real force for the rest of the year.
In the other Friday night game there is a lot of feeling between St George Dragons ($1.50) and Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.65). This has the potential to be a cracking match that will start with some fireworks up the centre as both sides pride themselves on laying a solid platform. Whichever team gets on top I would expect to let the ball sing in the second half and unleash the speed they both have. I am very interested to see how Matt Prior (A front rower) is going to go marking up on Josh Morris (A centre).
I was going jump on the NZ Warriors ($1.43) giving away whatever start the could against the NQLD Cowboys ($2.90) until the whisper went round that Jonathon Thurston is potentially playing. I still think the Warriors are going to be too good here and for a team the rides on emotion they will be pumped up after some big signings for the 2011 season that were announced during the week.
What a test for the Melbourne Storm ($1.68) heading down to what will be a freezing conditions in the nation’s capitol to take on the Canberra Raiders ($2.20). The Storms bubble may have been burst last week and players will start to question why they are bashing themselves around each week for no points. Some may have Origin spots to play for but the loss of Cameron Smith as well has got to put a huge question mark over their chances of winning this game.
The Sydney Roosters ($1.91) take on the Newcastle Knights ($1.93) in what will be a try fest. Both sides seem to show glimpses of what it is like to be a contender in the NRL before turning into park footballers and conceding piles of points in a short period. Both teams have a horrendous record at Blue Tongue Stadium as well so who on earth would you back?? Maybe a 32 all draw?
The West Tigers ($1.75) need to make a move against the South Sydney Rabbitohs ($2.10) if they are to be serious contenders this year. They are packed with talent from one side to the other and have a strong forward pack that can match the biggest of packs. Having said that they will need all of them this weekend against the biggest pack in the NRL. I think this will be won by the little men in the tigers outfit like Robbie Farah and Benji Marshall who can get the South’s boys on the back foot before unleashing the likes of Lote Tuqiri and Chris Lawrence who are both in fantastic form this year.
Many will try and convince me that the Cronulla Sharks ($2.75) will aim up and make a games of it against the Penrith Panthers ($1.46) but you can’t fool me. Once every 5 weeks the Sharks decide they have something to play for but if your backed against them every week you’d suffer the odd upset but you’d be rolling in cash. I feel for them in games and cheer them on because they do play with spirit but the truth of the matter is they are poorly coached and play with no direction. The Panthers will be lead by inspirational captain Petero Civoniceva who resigned with the club earlier In the week. Panthers by plenty for me.
The Parramatta Eels ($2.45) may have fooled a few experts this year with a few wins on the trot but they are in no way shape or form the same team as the one that charged through all teams on their way to the Grand Final last season. Jarrod Hayne has shown glimpses but I think is getting too involved in the general play rather than the rare brilliant touches that put him on the map in 2009. This week is a true test taking on a white hot Manly Sea Eagles ($1.57) side that has put away all comers in recent weeks including the previously dominant Dragons last weekend. To sway this match more in favour of the Eagles is the fact they are the Fortress Brookvale Oval which is not a nice place for opposition teams to visit which is aided by the fact they seem to win every single penalty count there by a long margin.
Our Bets this weekend are:
NZ WARRIORS minus 6.5 points to beat NQLD Cowboys at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Win)
WESTS TIGERS minus 2 points to beat South Sydney Rabbitohs at $1.92 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Win)
MANLY SEA EAGLES minus 6.5 points to beat Parramatta Eels at $2.10 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)
May 9th – AFL
We haven’t had an AFL bet this season as our AFL expert hasn’t checked in this year but I believe I have found some great odds on today’s match. The Sydney Swans are top of the table and been in stunning form but come up against the defending premiers Geelong In what should be a cracking match. The Cats have been mixing up their form this year with some stunning performances added in with some substandard efforts. This could be attributed to a few key injuries that they haven’t had to deal with in the past and today is no exception. Both Gary Ablett and Matt Scarlet need to undergo fitness tests and although both are expected to play I have to doubt what level they are at.
To the odds and I am expecting this as usual to be a hard fought tackle fest and most likely low scoring. For this reason I am amazed that Sydney have been given the odds of $2.00 with 20.5 points head start which just seems ludicrous. I am aware of Geelong stunning record at Skilled Park winning their last 19 matches there but I think the chances of the Swans being within 20 points is better than even money.
Our Bet today is:
SYDNEY SWANS with 20.5 points head start to beat Geelong Cats at $2.00 on SportsBet (Sports Managed fund 10% bet)
TopPunter Weekend Review
another fantastic weekend for TopPunter subscribers with 3 of our 4 selections winning. We were incredibly unlucky with the 4th selection who looked all over a winner (Was matched at $1.01 in running on Betfair) before just being pipped on the post.
Winners included Shadrach at Morphettville ($7.50), Two Hills at Flemington ($9.20) and Graceful Anna at the Gold Coast ($3.00).
Graceful Anna was posted on the website as our TopPunter Tip of the Day which has had a stunning record every time we have posted a tip on here.
So far this month our Horse Managed Fund has increased a whopping 27% and we hope that continues for the rest of the month. For more information please email me at brad@toppunter.net
May 7th – TopPunter Tip of the Day
It’s been a while between TopPunter Tip of the Day’s as i do like to save the majority of our tips for our subscribers but we have a fantastic record with the Tip of the Day selections and i thought we might share this weekends tip with everyone.
GOLD COAST RACE 5 – 3. GRACEFUL ANNA
This horse is undefeated at this track with 1 win from its only start and showed enough in her close defeat by Temple of Boom last start that it still is in top form and will appreciate the step up to 1200m as well.