June 29th – World Cup Football Day 19
Class shone through last night and luckily we jumped on the band wagon with Holland in cruise mode beating Slovakia 2-1 whilst Brazil demolished Chile it what is a scary reminder of what they can offer the competition. It sets up a great Quarter Final match between the 2 sides.
Tonight’s games are hard to read as I have liked PARAGUAY ($2.20) for a while as they are such a tight nit unit and very hard to crack. However, they take on JAPAN ($3.60) who looked brilliant in their last match winning 3-1 against Denmark. In the 2nd match goals should be on offer when SPAIN ($2.00) take on PORTUGAL ($4.33) but after the last game between Portugal and Brazil offered so much and ended in one of the most boring 0-0 draws in World Cup history I’m a little scared to take that on either. $2.25 for over 2.5 goals isn’t inviting enough for me either.
Our bets tonight are:
No bets tonight
June 28th – World Cup Football Day 18
2 great games last night with the real surprise being the blow out 4-1 win by Germany over England. To be fair I think this score line flattered Germany somewhat but they were the better team. England will feel hard done by when a goal by Frank Lampard was disallowed even though replays showed the ball clearly crossed the goal line. That would’ve made the score 2-2 and England may not have had to press so much. Instead Germany countered with force and the young Germans really stood up and took all opportunities with force. Argentina continued to show its great form putting Mexico away 3-1 including what is now being hailed as the goal of the tournament by Carlos Tevez.
It definitely seems as though the games top strikers have learnt how to control, or at least get the most out of, these balls that are being labelled the equivalent of a $5 K Mart ball. The strikers seem more content on shooting from long range making it difficult for the keepers who have ball moving in both directions in the air at times.
Tonight’s games should really go with the odds to set up a mouth watering quarterfinal clash between HOLLAND ($1.44) who play SLOVAKIA ($8.00) and BRAZIL ($1.57) who lock horns with CHILE ($6.50). I can’t see how Slovakia can match it with Holland who have been in cruise control so far in the tournament. They will need to play their A game here though as they will need their game perfect for their next match. I expect them to strike early and cool their jets when they get to a comfortable lead, 2-0 would be a likely result. Brazil have their work cut out facing a Chilean side who have had a rock solid defence so far in the tournament. Only a couple of cracking goals from Spain have penetrated their defence.
Our bets tonight are:
HOLLAND to lead at half time and go on and win at $2.10 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
June 27th – World Cup Football Day 17
The matches are getting bigger as we get down to the business end of the competition and tonight is no exception. We have 2 contrasting games starting with what will most likely be a very defensive and tough tackling encounter between GERMANY ($2.87) and ENGLAND ($2.70) followed by what should be an open and expansive match between ARGENTINA ($1.57) and MEXICO ($6.50).
Germany have been up and down in this tournament whilst England have just been down. Germany started the tournament on fire in a 4-0 drumming of Australia before a loss to Serbia gave them the wobbles. A final 1-0 victory over Ghana was enough to get them to qualify top of their group. England meanwhile had an embarrassing first match draw against USA due to a horrible goal keeper error then an unconvincing 0-0 draw with the lowly Algeria. Their final match was do or die and they just did enough with a 1-0 victory against Slovenia getting them 2nd place in the group. England made a few changes to their team and did look a lot more impressive and created more chances. If they show continued improvement they could get their campaign back on track. Their biggest issue is the absence of Wayne Rooney in the goal scoring column. He hasn’t shown any of his usual spark and blew a golden opportunity for an assist last match, instead trying to go solo himself. I think this will be a very defensive game and both sides will rely on their set pieces to secure a winner. If that’s the case I lean towards England for the win.
The 2nd match has the possibilities of a real open and exciting game with both Argentina and Mexico showing potential to score goals from a number of sources. I probably give Mexico the advantage in the defensive side of things, however, Argentina have a better attack. I think Mexico will go with their strength and sit back looking to counter attack with the speed they possess across the paddock. Argentina like to get a lot of people forward when they get a chance and often rely on loose balls in the penalty area for their chance to strike. I’m really looking forward to this game.
Our bets tonight are:
Nothing
I’m tempted to take England but I’ll leave it alone.
June 26th – World Cup Football Day 16
Really short of time tonight sorry so just give you my quick analysis.
First match tonight is Uruguay ($1.91) vs South Korea ($4.33). There was a lot of money placed on Uruguay before the tournament kicked off and you can now see why. They possess a potent midfield that can all shoot as well. South Korea aren’t a team that takes a backwards step though and I am expecting this to be a very entertaining game. Uruguay 3-2 for me.
In the 2nd game for the night USA ($2.60) takes on Ghana ($2.90). I said at the start of the tournament that I thought USA could be a smokie team to do some damage and so far they have proved me right. We have collected nicely on them so far and I feel the money is for the taking again with huge odds even though they are playing a Ghana team that honestly fell into 2nd place in their group thanks to some poor efforts from Serbia and Australia.
Our bets tonight are:
USA to beat Ghana at $2.60 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
June 25th – World Cup Football Day 15
Some interesting results last night not least of which was the 3-2 win by Slovakia over Italy confirming their spot in the Round of 16 whilst at the same time sending the reigning champs bumbling out of the tournament very early. In the other game for Group F New Zealand just couldn’t get things moving and the stonewall defence of Paraguay held them to a 0-0 draw. In the Group E matches Holland had total control of Cameroon in their 2-1 win and never got out of 2 gear looking very comfortable. Meanwhile Japan really impressed me with some nice goals and good set moves tearing apart Denmark on their way to a 3-1 victory and a place in the final 16.
Tonight sees the final of the group matches starting with NORTH KOREA ($9.50) at huge odds against the IVORY COAST ($1.34). The Ivory Coast mathematically can still make the finals with a win against North Korea and if PORTUGAL ($3.60) lose to BRAZIL ($2.25). The problem is the 9 goal differential between the 2 sides meaning Ivory Coast would have to win by a lot whilst Portugal lost by a lot and that just isn’t going to happen. North Korea’s defence was incredibly bad against Portugal and the ramifications went back to their home country where commentary was stopped on the live feed at it went to 4-0 and the feed was pulled immediately after the final whistle was blown. They have pride to play for and may just pull together a shock performance here. No one will be watching though as Portugal and Brazil battle for top spot in what is a real mouth watering affair. Both teams like to play with flair and although Brazilian star Kaka has been ruled out of the clash I still expect it to be one of the matches of the tournament and with both teams have good midfields and slightly loose defences there could be some goals here.
In Group H pre tournament favourites SPAIN ($1.44) are on the bubble of elimination in their match against CHILE ($7.00). Spain are equal on 3 points with SWITZERLAND ($1.57) who play HONDURAS ($6.00) and you’d have to think they are a strong chance of recording a win against them considering they have 0 points have haven’t even managed to score a goal in the tournament so far. Whilst Chile have had 2 wins so far they could still get eliminated if results don’t go their way. A loss to Spain and a Switzerland victory would mean the Chile side would be making an early exit after such a promising start. Spain started to look a little better in their last match after a shock loss to Switzerland in the first round but will face a tough test against the Chilean side who will go with their strengths and play a very defensive game hoping for a 0-0 or 1-1 draw and the top spot in the group. The prospects of either side aren’t great with the top 2 playing Brazil and Portugal in the next round. Switzerland aren’t known for their scoring ability but are very adept from set pieces so they should managed to find a goal against Honduras at some stage in the match.
Our bets tonight are:
UNDER 2.5 GOALS Chile vs Spain at $1.80 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
UNDER 2.5 GOALS Switzerland vs Honduras at $1.73 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
June 24th – World Cup Football Day 14
USA butchered a couple of golden opportunities and although having the wood over Algeria for much of the game it wasn’t till the final 10 minutes when they scored what turned out to be the match winning goal for a 1-0 victory. That was a huge win for the TopPunter subscribers as we cashed in on a massive 15% bet on USA plus we had backed USA to qualify in their group which they did with that win also. We topped off a fantastic night for punting with the 1-0 victory for England easily coming under the 2.5 goals. A great night and a huge profit. The Aussies managed to salvage some pride with a 2-1 win over Serbia but their goal difference cost them a spot in the next round to Ghana who lost 1-0 to Germany as well.
Group F gets us started tonight with PARAGUAY ($1.44) taking on NEW ZEALAND ($8.00) whilst ITALY ($1.53) vs SLOVAKIA ($6.50). Logic says this one should go with the odds as Paraguay have looked pretty strong in their group matches so far with a win over Slovakia and a draw against early favourites Italy. New Zealand have showed tremendous fighting spirit in their matches so far but to be honest Italy have been a bit of a letdown this year and definitely not the attacking force they have been in the past. I do expect them to ground out a win but I wouldn’t expect any more than a 1-0 result. I’m thinking there could be some goals in the Paraguay vs New Zealand match as New Zealand haven’t played the defensive game everyone expected of them but rather put everything on the line and pushed forward to get goals.
In Group E the very disappointing CAMEROON ($4.75) go up against HOLLAND ($1.75) and the odds may seem a bit high for some but Holland don’t need to win here having already qualified whilst Cameroon can’t possibly qualify so they may just go out and have some fun. There would have to be a 4 or 5 goal swing between Holland and Japan or Denmark respectively for them to even lose top spot. I’d expect them to play finals football and keep a tight ship at the back and try and work on a few set pieces. Cameroon have been pretty dreadful though so a win wouldn’t surprise and if they get a couple in they could turn it on Portugal style. In the 2nd game it’s all on the line for JAPAN ($3.30) and DENMARK ($2.20) who sit equal on 3 points in the group and only separated by 1 goal. I think the bookies have got this one the wrong way round as I would have Japan as the favourites but I am a little worried about backing them for the win as a draw is a good enough result for them to progress through thanks to the better goal differential. Without doubt they will play tight and try and settle for a 0-0 result with the odd counter attack from the very fast little men.
Our bets tonight are:
UNDER 1.5 GOALS Italy vs Slovakia at $2.88 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
UNDER 1.5 GOALS Japan vs Denmark at $2.88 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
June 23rd – World Cup Football Day 13
Good results for us last night but I am still disappointed we didn’t get 3 out of 3. France continued their terrible form and couldn’t take care of the World 83 ranked team in South Africa, going down 2-1. We did get the Uruguay vs Mexico total goals right although they played a lot more aggressive than expected (Maybe because France didn’t look like making up the goal difference needed to overtake them if they lost). Then South Korea and Nigeria went easily over the 2.5 goals in a 2-2 draw that was very entertaining. In the final match Greece tried hard but as expected Argentina did what they had to in a 2-0 win.
Cracking nights viewing tonight with all games having relevance to who gets through to the next round.
Group C starts us off with ENGLAND ($1.44) having their tournament life on the line against SLOVENIA ($8.00) and the bookies have the contest as a one sided affair. I was confident of the English chances prior to the tournament kicking off but they have been dreadful, even without the goal keeper blunder in the first game. Having said that if the goalie remembered his under 10’s training of getting the body behind the ball and they won that game we could be talking of a different story here. But we aren’t. It’s hard to review a match like this but I do think the pricing is very lopsided considering how England have struggled to score goals (only 1 in 2 matches) and Slovenia looked very impressive against USA in their last game (Well at least for 1 half). USA ($1.83) meet ALGERIA ($4.33) in the other match and I think they bookies have got it wrong again as USA should be much shorter. The US looked good against England and could have gotten a couple of goals and despite the fact they were pretty ordinary in their first half against Slovenia they showed enough guts to have their wake up call and recover. To be honest they were robbed of an incredible match winner when the referee blew a whistle for a free kick as they scored in the 87th minute (Would have given them a 3-2 victory). Algeria meanwhile haven’t scored a goal in the tournament so far and really haven’t looked like it. Although there defence has been tight if they give the US a sniff and sit on their tails all game they will go down badly here. The scenarios are this, If England has a draw there only hope of getting through to the next round is if USA loses as although there goal difference would be the same if the US draws they will be behind on Goals Scored (One of the factors if teams are tied at the end of the groups stage). If England wins then they qualify. Slovenia will advance on a draw or better. USA will advance on a win, a draw would mean England would have to draw also. Incredibly Algeria can still qualify if Slovenia beats England and they win against the US.
Group D is the 4.30am games and sees GHANA ($7.00) pitted against GERMANY ($1.44) and AUSTRALIA ($4.00) playing SERBIA ($1.91) and to be honest both the outsiders represent value here. I’m not sure I will place any of my hard earned money down on them but Ghana could easily get lucky with some of their 30m bombs they love to unleash and the $7.00 price tag seems a little generous. Having said that Australia did find a few holes in their defence and Germany is a lot better team than that so I’d expect Podolski to have fixed the radar that was off in their last game against Serbia and get things back on track. Meanwhile Australia showed the guts and determination we have come to expect of them against Ghana in their last game and a repeat performance could easily seem them come out on top here. Serbia do deserve to be favourites after beating Germany 1-0 last round but they haven’t really showed any of the flair that was expected of them in the tournament and if they were going to be real contenders they should’ve taken care of Ghana too. Scenarios here are far and wide so I’ll just stick with the Aussie’s best chance. Best result is Germany win and Australia wins, however, the goal difference they need to make up is 5 on Ghana. So if Germany wins 4-0 and Australia 1-0 then it would go to drawing out of a hat either Ghana or Australia to advance (Yes I’m serious, below is the rules of qualification in the event of a tie). Any more goals scored by Australia or the goal difference bigger and they would advance. E.g. Germany wins 3-0 and Australia 2-0 then Australia would advance.
The ranking of each team in each group will be determined as follows:
a) greatest number of points obtained in all group matches;
b) goal difference in all group matches;
c) greatest number of goals scored in all group matches.
If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their rankings will be determined as follows:
d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned;
e) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned;
f) greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned;
g) drawing of lots by the Organising Committee for the FIFA World Cup.
Our bets tonight are:
USA to beat Algeria at $1.83 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 15% Bet)
UNDER 2.5 GOALS England vs Slovenia at $1.73 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
June 22nd – World Cup Day 12
What a night of football and for those who at least watched the early game you would’ve seen the goal fest put on by Portugal in their 7-0 romping of North Korea. We did predict there would be some goals in this match but no one thought there would be that many. There were some good goals but really there was some sloppy unorganised defence for much of it. In the 2nd game we were again on the money with a very tight game with few real chances and the very strong defence of Chile held strong for a 1-0 win over Switzerland. In the final game Spain did what they had to against Honduras for a 2-0 victory including what I believe is the goal of the tournament so far from David Villa. Those results set up some very interesting last round clashes and equally important Round of 16 matches. Whoever finishes top of Group G (Brazil or Portugal, they play each other next round) plays the 2nd place finisher in Group H (It could be Spain, Switzerland or Chile).
Group A kicks us off in tonight’s matches and they are very interesting. I don’t mean to be to think the worst of teams but surely a draw is the only result in the first game. MEXICO ($3.60) meets URUGUAY ($4.33) and if they draw both teams advance to the next round. A loss for either team means that If FRANCE ($2.25) beats SOUTH AFRICA ($3.20) and picks up the goal difference (currently 4 on Mexico and 5 on Uruguay) then they would pinch 2nd place. The only real incentive is for Mexico who would finish in 2nd and most likely meet Argentina in the Round of 16 whereas Uruguay would face a much easier task of either Greece or South Korea. Uruguay have been involved in match fixing before and although I am not accusing them of that they know the importance of certain results and it’s no surprise that the draw is favourite in this match at $1.80.
Group B hosts the 2nd group of matches tonight and GREECE ($6.50) has its tournament on the line against ARGENTINA ($1.57). Greece sits on 3 points on the ladder equal with SOUTH KOREA ($2.50) who meet NIGERIA ($2.80). If Greece loses to Argentina, which is very likely considering their form, then they would have to hope for Nigeria upsetting South Korea. Greece’s best chance is probably to force a draw against Argentina and hope that Nigeria can upset South Korea.
Our bets tonight are:
UNDER 1.5 GOALS Uruguay vs Mexico at $2.05 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
FRANCE to beat South Africa at $2.25 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
OVER 2.5 GOALS South Korea vs Nigeria at $2.25 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
June 21st – World Cup Day 11
Three top games last night and some teams showed their true colours. First up Paraguay were strong in their 2-0 defeat of Slovakia and they could be a real nuisance for teams in the later rounds and I’d expect them to qualify now. Italy came up against a spirited and tight New Zealand and only got home for a 1-1 draw thanks to a penalty. New Zealand showed true grit and determination when it counted and it was great to watch. Finally Brazil put in a really solid performance to win 3-1 against the Ivory Coast and confirm their spot in the 2nd round.
For tonight’s matches we have PORTUGAL ($1.36) needing to show their true colours against NORTH KOREA ($10.00). In the 1st round Portugal squandered numerous scoring opportunities against the Ivory Coast ending in a 0-0 draw which really puts them under pressure here. I’d expect them to get things moving here and wouldn’t surprise if Christiano Ronaldo opens the scoring to get them moving. The 2nd match is very interesting with CHILE ($2.25) vs SWITZERLAND ($3.40) and I think the prices are a little off here. Chile was clinical in its first round 1-0 win over Honduras but it was hardly a dominant performance. Meanwhile Switzerland were under the pump from Spain the whole match but squeaked out a 1-0 win against the pre-tournament favourites. The winner of this match is guaranteed a 2nd round berth and a draw would mean a some very interesting final round matches. The last match sees SPAIN ($1.14) take on HONDURAS ($14.00) and this really should be a one sided affair. Although Spain were very disappointing in their first match they did create numerous scoring chances and it is only a matter of time before they start going in.
Our bets tonight are:
UNDER 1.5 GOALS Chile vs Switzerland at $2.50 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
OVER 2.5 GOALS Portugal vs North Korea at $2.10 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
June 20th – World Cup Day 10
In a word gutted describes my feeling at the end of the Australia vs Ghana game last night but they only have themselves to blame. Aside from the red card and ensuing penalty the fact was the ball should never have gotten as far as that player and he shouldn’t have been un marked in the box. The Aussies also had 2 golden opportunities to score the winner in the final minutes of the game too. Holland may not have looked pretty in their 1-0 win over Japan but they proved to me they are the real deal and did what they had to do. I didn’t catch the Denmark vs Cameroon game but by all reports Cameroon had their chances and took an early lead before letting the Danes back into the contest/ Eto’o then struck the wood work when looking for the winner before Denmark clinched it 2-1.
The first 2 matches of the night feature teams from Group E and they are very important as all 4 teams registered draws in their first round. PARAGUAY ($2.10) take on SLOVAKIA ($3.75) in the first and I think Paraguay need to assert themselves in this game. Normally known as a defensive team who preys on other teams weak moments they can’t rely on a draw in this game even though they play the lowly Nez Zealanders in the final game. I would expect them to press early trying for a 1-0 lead then going back to their natural game. ITALY ($1.22) have their fate in their own hands against NEW ZEALAND ($15.00) and you would expect them to prove a point here as well. New Zealand played with spirit in their first match against Slovakia but this is a much tougher task and I can’t see them getting any goals this time round. For the final match of the night BRAZIL ($1.70) are pitted at very high odds again COTE D’IVOIRE ($5.50). I can’t see why the Brazilians are so high a price as even though they only beat Korea 2-1 in the first round they did it in a canter. Meanwhile the Ivory Coast were lucky to hold Portugal to a 0-0 draw.
Our bets tonight are:
PARAGUAY to beat Slovakia at $2.10 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
BRAZIL to beat Cote d’Ivoire at $1.70 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
Over 5 Corners in the first half in the Paraguay vs Slovakia game at $2.25 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
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