June 18th – NRL Round 15 Preview
At just past the half way mark of the year I’d have to put the BRISBANE BRONCOS ($12.00 on SportsBet, $16.00 on Betfair) on top as my favourites for the title at the current odds. They have begun a really strong surge up the ladder after an indifferent start and now the young players they brought on board have gained confidence and the ability to win games. Guided round the park by some of the best leaders in the game they are tremendous value and I have had one of my biggest ever bets on a premiership winner this far out from the end. Obviously ST GEORGE DRAGONS ($3.40 on SportsBet, $3.70 on Betfair) have to be considered cue to their consistency over the past couple of seasons but I still worry about their ability to bring the title home after they have shown signs of wilting under the pressure before. MANLY SEA EAGLES ($7.00 on SportsBet, $8.00 on Betfair) are 2nd favourites for the crown even though they have been erratic at times this year. They have a superb forward pack that can match it with any team and that helps there very young and inexperienced halves. Those halves are the only real doubt for me as when it gets to the business end of the season you can’t hesitate there. The advantage Manly has is Jamie Lyon in the centers who can move inside and take control if one of the boys starts to panic. Actually SportsBet is offering $33.00 for the Brisbane / Manly quinella for the Grand Final which I think is well worth a couple of dollars!
To the round 15 games and we kick off with the BRISBANE BRONCOS ($1.50) backing up against the youthful PENRITH PANTHERS ($2.65). There are many who say never back a team backing up from a State of Origin game but I am certainly not one of them. In fact if you listen to the players many of them say if they have a quick back up they are less likely to suffer the muscle fatigue they would have if they had to play a Monday night game. Add to that the fact the Panthers are without there real go forward man and inspirational leader in Petero Cinoviceva and I think the Broncos look good things here. The 2nd game tonight sees the CANTERBURY BULLDOGS ($2.10) take on the GOLD COAST TITANS ($1.75) and good luck picking this one. Trying to work out when the Bulldogs are going to fire is like trying to watch paint dry. They clearly have potential and seem to put together 1 good half of football but thats not enough in the NRL. The fact they have transferred the game to Brisbane’s Suncorp stadium may be a mistake when they could’ve used some home town support to get their season moving.
Saturday night has 2 games this week. The MELBOURNE STORM ($1.57) takes on NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS ($2.45) at home in what could be an entertaining match. You never seem to know what this storm side will produce this year with no points on offer. Tipping them is a nightmare but you can be sure they do like to entertain one way or another. The Cowboys will welcome back their leader and could really do with a win here to get them a chance for some Semi Final football later in the year. MANLY SEA EAGLES ($1.60) vs the erratic SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS ($2.38) is game 2 and I couldn’t go near this game either. While I think Manly should win as they are the better side and have a good record against the bunnies, who knows what Souths team will show up. Without doubt Souths can beat anyone in the comp when they are on. They have a massive forward pack, electric halves and a young and talented back line.
Sunday puts together 2 games that could be really entertaining. The CRONULLA SHARKS ($2.80) have found some real momentum since their wet and ugly win over the Knights over a month ago and could provide a real stumbling block for the ST GEORGE DRAGONS ($1.45). The Sharks will be very happy to hear that Paul Gallen escaped suspension for his high tackle on Wednesday night as he is a critical part of the team. Although the Dragons won 38-0 in Round 8 earlier in the year I think this will be much closer. For the 2nd game the up and down WESTS TIGERS ($1.40) vs the CANBERRA RAIDERS ($3.05). I’d like to say the Raiders are good value but every stat I turn over suggests that the Tigers should win this and win it well. They did what they had to in the wet against the Bulldogs 2 weeks ago and are fully rested from the bye. They have also secured the services of talented fullback Wade Mackinnon for the first time this year. The game is being played at Leichardt Oval which always brings a very parochial crowd that will be full of supporters hoping for blood. Canberra’s hopes rest on their origin stars being fit as they really need to be able to match the Tigers in the forwards to be a show. Without a tight ruck the speedy Tigers will run riot.
Monday this week is in Newcastle for the NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS ($2.40) against the PARRAMATTA EELS ($1.60). Kurt Gidley will be praying he has a pleseant night after an average one on Wednesday. Not only the losing captain (again) but playing out of position he made some basic errors that lead to tries and was very disapoitning. He is a class player and playing in his preferred position he should be much stronger. To be honest though I can’t see it with the team in turmoil and seemingly changing their line-up from week to week, especially in the halves. Whilst I didn’t mention the Eels as Grand Final contenders earlier they have got class all over the park and I expect them to take the 2 point here.
Our bets are:
BRISBANE BRONCOS to beat the Penrith Panthers by more than 5.5 points at $1.92 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
CRONULLA SHARKS with 7.5 points start against the St George Dragons at $1.92 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
WESTS TIGERS to beat Canberra Raiders by 13+ at $2.40 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
PARRAMATTA EELS to beat the Newcastle Knights by more than 6 points at $2.10 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
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