Tour de France Week 1 Review 13/7
The first week of the Tour is over and it certainly has been entertaining. A number of crashes in the early couple of stages reeked havoc with our Green Jersey (Sprinters/Points Classification) bet with Mark Cavendish but class shone through when he was dealt an even hand and he repaid the faithful with 2 stage wins in a row. He currently sits in 5th position in the Green Jersey competition only 35 points behind Thor Hushovd. That’s pretty good when you consider he got no points from 2 stages early on when expected to win due to peloton crashes in the final km’s. Allesandro Pettachi has returned to some of his old form with a few wins and looks strong on the bike. The fact that he is a former convicted drug cheat and that he has never finished a Tour de France leads me to not be concerned about him finishing again this year. Robbie McEwen has made the most of those earlier crashes with a few top finishes but after crashing into a photographer after the 7th stage he was forced to withdraw. Hushovd now is the strong favourite to retain his title from last year (We collected nicely on that last year) paying only $1.71 (Betfair), $1.62 (SportsBet) from Cavendish $5.30 (Betfair), $4.33 (SportsBet). I really can’t see anyone else being a force. The advantage for Hushovd is his strong climbing ability when has seen him sneak some points in the mountain stages. Cavendish will be waiting till the flat stages in the 2nd week and looking for more wins.
We didn’t make any outstanding predictions in the Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) and we are no closer to changing that opinion. I would disregard most of the action you have seen in the opening climbs as Frenchman Jerome Pineau $9.40 (Betfair), $7.00 (SportsBet) leads but there have been very few really big points available yet. The first HC (Largest) climb is on tonight’s stage and may give more of an indication who thinks they are a serious contender in this category. Sylvain Chavanel $13.00 (Betfair), $8.00 (SportsBet) has seen a return to the form that saw us pick him in a few stages last year with 2 wins and is high up the classification and I think the best value for money. Spaniards Rafael Valls $6.00 (Betfair), $5.00 (SportsBet) and Samuel Sanchez $18.00 (Betfair), $21.00 (SportsBet) have both shown great climbing ability in this year’s Tour so far, however, their high standing in the Overall GC will see them being slightly marked men and might find it tough to get in a breakaway in the later stages. Thomas Voeckler $28.00 (Betfair), $23.00 (SportsBet) is also a strong contender after picking up enough points in the first week to make him a threat. He also looked to be in really good form I the 8th stage which was the first real test for the climbers.
Probably the most action has been in the Yellow Jersey (Overall GC) with those crashes mentioned earlier on. After performing fairly averagely in the Prologue Cadel Evans $14.00 (Betfair), $7.00 (SportsBet) and Andy Schlek $3.50 (Betfair), $3.00 (SportsBet) got a real break when the crashes saw hot favourite Alberto Contador $1.72 (Betfair), $1.70 (SportsBet) lose a big chunk of time and leave the 2 of them out in front. Evans now leads Schlek by 20 seconds and Contador by 1m 01s. Schlek was the real shining light after the first big mountain stage (Stage 8) when he and Samuel Sanchez 2m 15s $130.00 (Betfair), $67.00 (SportsBet) rode away from the main contenders to get an extra 10 seconds on the rest of the field. Contador tried to respond but had nothing in the tank and in the end was left to ride over the line with the other main contenders. I think this really opens up the competition for a real smokie as the attacks will be thick and fast in the 2nd week of riding. Denis Menchov, 1m 10s, $75.00 (Betfair), $31.00 (SportsBet), Levi Leipheimer, 2m 14s, $150.00 (Betfair), $67.00 (SportsBet), Carlos Sastre, 2m 40s, $210.00 (Betfair), $110.00 (SportsBet) and Bradley Wiggins, 2m 45s, $220.00 (Betfair), $67.00 (SportsBet) should all be considered an outside chance. I still don’t think Ivan Basso, 2m 41s, $65.00 (Betfair), $31.00 (SportsBet) can win but he is high in the betting. As we predicted Michael Rogers is looking solid in the first week and currently sits in 10th position 2m 31s behind Evans. He is on track for a Top 10 finish.
Tonight’s stage as I have stated involves the first HC climb along with two Category 1 and one Category 2 climbs earlier on. While I think there will be fireworks in this stage on the final HC climb (Col de la Madeline) I don’t think massive chunks of time will be lost as there is a large downhill ride afterwards along with a flat finish. This means if riders get dropped over the top they could make it up by taking some risks on the way down. Contador is an excellent downhill rider though so if he does pinch a break he may be tough to reel back in. Evans has some good skills from his past as a World Champion Mountain bike rider whilst Schlek and Menchov struggle a bit in this area. There could be some carnage if riders get crazy on the way down.
No selections, however, I would lean towards Thomas Voeckler $51.00 or Alexander Vinokourov $26.00 who is a superb downhill rider in his own right. Voeckler may well save himself for tomorrow’s stage which also would suit him and a win on Bastille Day is always high on the agenda for the French.
July 4th – Tour de France 2010 Preview and Day 1
Every year the Tour de France is one of my favourite events. I always provide the TopPunter subscribers the best chance to grab the bset odds overy night but will share some of the previews of each stage on the website if you want to keep track of our progress. Here was our first preview.
I’m again excited to see it come round again even though it does look at first glance to be a one sided affair with hot favourite ALBERTO CONTADOR ($1.67) expected to take the prize again. Although not really a team rider (TEAM ASTANA), preferring to go it alone and at times even attack his own teammates, Contador has lost the services of quality teammates in LANCE ARMSTRONG ($7.00) and ANDREAS KLODEN ($126.00) who have both gone with the new TEAM RADIOSHACK who possess some real talent. RadioShack has also secured the services of another former podium finisher in the Tour in LEVI LEIPHEIMER ($91.00) and the brilliant workhorses YAROSLAV POPOVYCH and CHRIS HORNER. Admittedly it’s not all downhill for Contador who has joined back up with controversial rider ALEXANDER VINOKOUROV ($151.00) who could be more a hindrance than a help. Vino caused major waves in the camp last year when he announced that he would return to the team as the number 1 rider upsetting both Armstrong and Contador and causing Lance to walk out and find his new team. I can’t really see these 2 working together on the mountains. Brothers FRANK SCHLEK ($36.00) and ANDY SCHLEK ($9.00) will be considered an even stronger prospect than in previous years gaining more experience from the top finishes last year. These 2 work really well together and Andy is just getting better each time he contests the tour. I have little doubt he will win one day. The big advantage for these boys is their brilliant team (TEAM SAXO BANK) that work as one unit and can destroy other rivals with the fierce pace they set. This is led by FABIAN CANCELLARA, STUART O’GRADY, NICKI and CHRIS SORENSON and JENS VOGT. BRADLEY WIGGINS ($19.00) would think he has hopes of another high finish after making the leap from professional time trialist to being able to mix it with the big boys when they hit the mountains last year. He will only get better the more he trains in this arena and I would expect another high finish again this year. His big issue is his team (SKY PRO CYCLING) doesn’t fill me with a lot of confidence that he will be well supported in the mountains. CADEL EVANS ($23.00) is in the best form of his career with a World Championship title win in September last year followed up by a 5th place finish in the Giro d’Italia. Evans team was originally not invited to participate in the Tour de France so his team targeted the Giro as their main event for the year. That has since changed and the focus of the team could be a little off, however, I expect huge things from them as they are very strong. Evans will be surrounded by strong teammates in BMC RACING like GEORGE HINCAPPIE (once Lance Armstrong’s right hand man), ALESSANDRO BALLAN (2008 World Champion) along with some great climbers in Marcus Burghardt, Mathais Frank and Karston Kroon. MICHAEL ROGERS ($61.00), DENIS MENCHOV ($36.00) and CARLOS SASTRE ($76.00) all possess the potential to match it with the above contenders but will have to work together as they have very little support from their own team.
It’s also worth noting on my review of the layout of this year’s Tour that it seems a bit flatter than in previous years and I think that plays into the hands of people such as Evans, Rogers, Wiggins and Menchov who lack that turn of speed that riders like Contador, Schlek and Armstrong can produce. The only real stage that stands out as a potential big time loser / winner is the infamous COL DU TOURMALET in stage 17. It is a brutal climb finishing at the top of the mountain and is sure to be the key stage for the Tour’s big contenders.
In the Green Jersey (Sprinters) it looks a lay down victory for MARK CAVENDISH ($2.00) (barring some unfortunate incident in the mountains). He was devastating last year in every sprint he contested and his team showed a real hunger for any chance they had to chase down a breakaway. The only rider that really challenged him at any stage was TYLER FARRAR ($6.00) who is a super talent on the rise but he has his work cut out for him here. He also doesn’t climb as well as Cavendish which makes it hard for him to steal any stages from him.
In the Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) it is a much harder prospect to work out. Each year alot of it comes down to whether a rider believes he has a chance of finishing high up the General Classification. EGOI MARTINEZ ($7.00) assumes favouritism after his runner-up finish last year with winner Franco Pellizoti not competing in this year’s Tour after withdrawing from his team following allegations of “irregular blood results”. The BBOX BOUYGUES TELECOM team has a number of riders who could contest for this title and I think they will try a number of attacks and see who gets an early breakaway on the first couple of mountain stages. THOMAS VOECKLER ($51.00), PIERRICK FEDRIGO ($41.00) and PIERRE ROLLAND ($36.00). DAMIANO CUNEGO ($13.00) is an accomplished climber and ranks high in the betting but I feel he his higher aspirations of finishing up the top of the GC and this will affect teams letting him get large breaks over the mountains. I don’t know much about 2nd favourite Frenchman JOHN GADRET ($11.00) apart from the fact he rode well in the Giro finishing in 13th overall. Not really worth backing at the short price for me though.
To the Team Classification and hot favourites TEAM RADIOSHACK ($1.73) have a strong hold with Lance Armstrong, Chris Horner, Levi Leipheimer and Andreas Kloden all expected to finish high on the GC leaderboard. 2nd favourites TEAM SAXO BANK ($3.10) will be pinning their hopes on the Schlek brothers (Andy and Frank) being in the top couple, however, they really struggle for a 3rd rider as the other boys will be workhorses for them and will no doubt lose valuable time over the mountain stages when they are burnt out for the brothers to advance. ASTANTA ($13.00) are great value if Vinokourov can keep his head and work with Alberto Contador. Daniel Navarro and David de la Fuente could be the 3rd time for the team as they both have potential for a decent finish. BMC RACING ($151.00) are a real blow out chance if they work together and go for this title. As I stated above they have some really strong members of their team in Cadel Evans, George Hincappie, Alessandro Ballan along with a number of potential high finishers if one of those is to fail. LIQUIGAS-DOIMO ($11.00) are considered contenders for the team crown lead by IVAN BASSO but I don’t really see him or them being contenders at all this year. Basso is a one stage rider these days and really struggles to back it up for the 21 days of the tour.
To tonight’s 1st stage of the Tour (Not including the Prologue won by Fabian Cancellara last night) and you would have to think that MARK CAVENDISH ($2.00) and I think the price is an absolute steal. The 1st week of the tour almost always is settled with the sprinters and it’s hard to see how he won’t triumph in the first stage. Obviously other contenders in a sprint finish will be TYLER FARRAR ($5.00) and THOR HUSHOVD ($13.00) who will both be helped by the slightly uphill finish. ROBBIE McEWEN ($21.00) and ALESSANDRO PATTACHI ($15.00) will have to use their smarts to sneak a victory in this first week.
Our bets this weekend are:
MARK CAVENDISH to win Stage 1 at $2.00 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
MARK CAVENDISH to win the Green Jersey overall at $2.00 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
CADEL EVANS to beat Ivan Basso in the GC overall at $2.10 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
MICHAEL ROGERS to finish in the Top 10 in the GC Overall at $2.62 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
July 3rd – World Cup Football Quarter Finals
Another profit made from our World Cup bets last night but you have to feel we were robbed of a clean sweep on the night with a handball on the goal line stopping a certain goal then Ghana missing the ensuing penalty spot kick which would’ve made the total goals over the 2.5. Still I always say a wins a win. For those who missed the games we have been very supportive of Holland as our top pick for the tournament since the very beginning and they have stormed into 2nd favourites for the crown after their 2-1 win against Brazil. As we explained a little earlier Uruguay were extremely lucky to have survived winning on penalties against Ghana after it finished 1-1 after extra time.
The 2nd round of Quarter Finals sees the first match being another beauty with ARGENTINA ($2.37) taking on GERMANY ($3.10). Germany had lost some momentum after starting the tournament well then fumbling through the group stages. That was all forgotten though and they would have to be on a high after their 4-1 drumming of England. They showed a real hunger for the ball and the youthful exuberance of the team was infectious. Meanwhile Argentina have just been doing what they have to and been very impressive in doing so. A real hard one to line up but again I’m expecting some goals here.
The 2nd match of the night looks like a real fizzer to me and I won’t stay up for this one but instead watch a replay in the morning. SPAIN ($1.50) are dominant favourites when they meet PARAGUAY ($7.50) which I think is way off. Spain have been average at best in this tournament and while they only need to keep winning they need to raise their game here. Paraguay meanwhile have been very strong, especially at the back, conceding only 1 goal in their 4 matches so far. This match screams of a 0-0 or maybe 1-0 result with the contest turning into a real dogfight.
As I said yesterday as well SportsBet has put together some great money back specials that are hard to go past. During the whole tournament they have had a 1st goal scorer promotion where even if your player doesn’t score first you can still get your money back if the last goal is scored with a header. The new promotion they are offering is for all the Quarter Final matches where if your team loses in a penalty shootout then you get your money back.
Our bets tonight are:
OVER 2.5 GOALS (Argentina vs Germany) at $2.00 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
UNDER 1.5 GOALS (Spain vs Paraguay) at $2.88 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
July 2nd – World Cup Quarter Finals
The Quarter Finals kick off tonight and it’s great to see the majority of the world’s top teams still involved and the next stage is going to see some quality football. I still see HOLLAND ($8.50 SportsBet, $9.40 Betfair) as my favourites but they will have a tough run to make it happen. Having said that no team has a really easy run at this stage. ARGENTINA ($5.00 SportsBet, $6.40 Betfair) are probably my pick on the other side of the draw with the lack of form from SPAIN ($3.75 SportsBet, $4.00 Betfair).
The 1st match tonight is the pick of the Quarter Final matches when HOLLAND ($4.20) takes on BRAZIL ($1.95). Both teams have been in cruise mode so far in the tournament and it is probably the team that gets into this game first that takes the cash. I think Holland have the stronger defence of the 2 teams, however, Brazil possess attacking flair from everywhere. I think there will be some goals in this match as both teams will open up if one team scores.
The 2nd match of the night sees the impressive URUGUAY ($2.10) take on GHANA ($3.75). Ghana have been the real surprise packets of the tournament and Uruguay should be on guard tonight. They seem to have cottoned on to the fact that you can shoot from such a long way out and it creates problems for the opposition goal keeper with the wobbly ball. If they get a few shots on target we could really see some goals fly here. Meanwhile Uruguay have shown that they have 2 quality strikers in form in Luis Suarez and Diego Forlan. Ghana aren’t behind int hat category either with Asamoah Gyan high on the Golden Boot scoring table.
It’s also worth noting that SportsBet has put together some great money back specials that are hard to go past. During the whole tournament they have had a 1st goal scorer promotion where even if your player doesn’t score first you can still get your money back if the last goal is scored with a header. The new promotion they are offering is for all the Quarter Final matches where if your team loses in a penalty shootout then you get your money back.
Our bets this weekend are:
OVER 2.5 GOALS (Holland vs Brazil) at $2.25 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
OVER 2.5 GOALS (Uruguay vs Ghana) at $2.62 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
July 2nd – Horse Racing TopPunter Top Tip
TopPunter likes to keep its best information for its paying and Free Month subscribers, however, on rare occaisions we like to share the love with those searching the web and coming across our site. We have an outstanding record when we have done this rarely missing a winner. Usually we will only give one horse but this time its 2.
The first horse has been in great form with a super impressive win at Flemington a few weeks ago and the start before that it took on the very talented Our Baby Bonus and wasn’t disgraced being beaten only 0.8 lengths at Mooney Valley.
1.35pm – Mooney Valley Race 3 – 1. SUNDAY ROSE
The second horse on the blocks is racing at Rosehill and is in love with the track with back to back wins in its last 2 starts here. It also has no problems handling the wet with an impressive record in that category as well
2.28pm – Rosehill Race 5 – 1. TRIPLE ELENGANCE
July 1st – European and PGA Tours
A superb field kicks off this week’s edition to the European Tour in the French National title, Alstom Open de France at Le Golf National. Normally a reasonable field with a couple of the big names on the European Tour contesting but this year it is filled with stars, many of which are in form. I start, as I have so many times before, with MARTIN KAYMER ($15.00) who won here last year in a playoff against LEE WESTWOOD ($11.00) who is the early favourite here this week. Both have been in great form this year but you’d have to say the price of Westwood is a little short considering the dramas he’s had to deal with this week. He was rushed to hospital after fearing he had got Deep Vein Thrombosis (DVT) when his calf and ankle swelled up and caused him a great deal of pain. Although it was found to just be a reaction to the heat it leaves me questioning his mindset and lead-up to the tournament and think Kaymer is a much stronger option. Kaymer has been very solid this year and will love the layout of the greens here in Paris. They aren’t super quick but require a good eye and confidence to strike your putts which the German has in spades. Accuracy off the tee is much more important than length around this course and a strong mindset is critical for the final holes which have a ton of water surrounding them. RORY McILROY ($21.00) again finds himself at the top of the early prices but I think until this kid shows some consistency I won’t be placing any money on him. Clearly a super talent but I think he will really struggle to keep his head for 4 days over those closing holes. He is advantaged with the warmer weather causing the usually luscious rough to be tamed meaning his occasional wayward drives won’t be fully punished. I think there could be a real threat to the title from the Danes who have performed well in this tournament before. SOREN HANSEN ($41.00) along with ANDERS HANSEN ($67.00) have been in ok form recently but the real contender is SOREN KJELDSEN ($41.00) who like his fellow countrymen has a good record here but has got much stronger recent form seeing him regularly feature in the top portion of leaderboard’s in recent times. For the Aussie followers RICHARD GREEN ($51.00) has been in horrible form except for his 2nd place finish in Portugal only a couple of weeks ago. That was out of the blue as his other tournaments have been very ordinary of late. However, his record here is outstanding with finishes of 2nd (2004), 7th (2006), 4th (2008) and 6th (2009) showing he really loves the layout here. Clearly the lack of distance required off the tees is a huge advantage for him.
The PGA Tour is a much harder read this week as the AT & T National has moved to a new venue in Pennsylvania and I have very little info on the new course except the fact it is nearby where SEAN O’HAIR ($23.00) and JIM FURYK ($13.00) grew up. RICKY FOWLER ($29.00) did have a huge win here with his college team as well so he at least has some background on the course. Out of those 3 O’Hair standouts out as the top pick as I believe he’s hitting the ball better than the other 2 at the moment (although only just). His strong finish in the US Open is clear in the memory bank and his good record on Par 4’s will be the key on a course that is only a Par 70. The last player I’ll mention is no surprise, TIGER WOODS ($4.50) who is really starting to show glimpses of his former self. Some superb iron play and chipping around the green saw him with the chance to claim yet another major until his putter let him down. I can’t see it being too far away before he is a real force in the game once again. I was tempted to take Ben Crane to beat Dustin Johnson in the Head to Heads with the assumption that Johnson would still have to be reeling from the memory of his US Open crumble but he is normally such a strong minded player that I’ll leave it alone for now. We have 3 very good bets already.
Our bets this weekend are:
MARTIN MAYMER to beat Rory McIlroy at $1.80 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
LUKE DONALD to beat Lee Westwood at $2.08 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
SEAN O’HAIR to beat Bo Van Pelt at $1.90 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)