July 4th – Tour de France 2010 Preview and Day 1
Every year the Tour de France is one of my favourite events. I always provide the TopPunter subscribers the best chance to grab the bset odds overy night but will share some of the previews of each stage on the website if you want to keep track of our progress. Here was our first preview.
I’m again excited to see it come round again even though it does look at first glance to be a one sided affair with hot favourite ALBERTO CONTADOR ($1.67) expected to take the prize again. Although not really a team rider (TEAM ASTANA), preferring to go it alone and at times even attack his own teammates, Contador has lost the services of quality teammates in LANCE ARMSTRONG ($7.00) and ANDREAS KLODEN ($126.00) who have both gone with the new TEAM RADIOSHACK who possess some real talent. RadioShack has also secured the services of another former podium finisher in the Tour in LEVI LEIPHEIMER ($91.00) and the brilliant workhorses YAROSLAV POPOVYCH and CHRIS HORNER. Admittedly it’s not all downhill for Contador who has joined back up with controversial rider ALEXANDER VINOKOUROV ($151.00) who could be more a hindrance than a help. Vino caused major waves in the camp last year when he announced that he would return to the team as the number 1 rider upsetting both Armstrong and Contador and causing Lance to walk out and find his new team. I can’t really see these 2 working together on the mountains. Brothers FRANK SCHLEK ($36.00) and ANDY SCHLEK ($9.00) will be considered an even stronger prospect than in previous years gaining more experience from the top finishes last year. These 2 work really well together and Andy is just getting better each time he contests the tour. I have little doubt he will win one day. The big advantage for these boys is their brilliant team (TEAM SAXO BANK) that work as one unit and can destroy other rivals with the fierce pace they set. This is led by FABIAN CANCELLARA, STUART O’GRADY, NICKI and CHRIS SORENSON and JENS VOGT. BRADLEY WIGGINS ($19.00) would think he has hopes of another high finish after making the leap from professional time trialist to being able to mix it with the big boys when they hit the mountains last year. He will only get better the more he trains in this arena and I would expect another high finish again this year. His big issue is his team (SKY PRO CYCLING) doesn’t fill me with a lot of confidence that he will be well supported in the mountains. CADEL EVANS ($23.00) is in the best form of his career with a World Championship title win in September last year followed up by a 5th place finish in the Giro d’Italia. Evans team was originally not invited to participate in the Tour de France so his team targeted the Giro as their main event for the year. That has since changed and the focus of the team could be a little off, however, I expect huge things from them as they are very strong. Evans will be surrounded by strong teammates in BMC RACING like GEORGE HINCAPPIE (once Lance Armstrong’s right hand man), ALESSANDRO BALLAN (2008 World Champion) along with some great climbers in Marcus Burghardt, Mathais Frank and Karston Kroon. MICHAEL ROGERS ($61.00), DENIS MENCHOV ($36.00) and CARLOS SASTRE ($76.00) all possess the potential to match it with the above contenders but will have to work together as they have very little support from their own team.
It’s also worth noting on my review of the layout of this year’s Tour that it seems a bit flatter than in previous years and I think that plays into the hands of people such as Evans, Rogers, Wiggins and Menchov who lack that turn of speed that riders like Contador, Schlek and Armstrong can produce. The only real stage that stands out as a potential big time loser / winner is the infamous COL DU TOURMALET in stage 17. It is a brutal climb finishing at the top of the mountain and is sure to be the key stage for the Tour’s big contenders.
In the Green Jersey (Sprinters) it looks a lay down victory for MARK CAVENDISH ($2.00) (barring some unfortunate incident in the mountains). He was devastating last year in every sprint he contested and his team showed a real hunger for any chance they had to chase down a breakaway. The only rider that really challenged him at any stage was TYLER FARRAR ($6.00) who is a super talent on the rise but he has his work cut out for him here. He also doesn’t climb as well as Cavendish which makes it hard for him to steal any stages from him.
In the Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) it is a much harder prospect to work out. Each year alot of it comes down to whether a rider believes he has a chance of finishing high up the General Classification. EGOI MARTINEZ ($7.00) assumes favouritism after his runner-up finish last year with winner Franco Pellizoti not competing in this year’s Tour after withdrawing from his team following allegations of “irregular blood results”. The BBOX BOUYGUES TELECOM team has a number of riders who could contest for this title and I think they will try a number of attacks and see who gets an early breakaway on the first couple of mountain stages. THOMAS VOECKLER ($51.00), PIERRICK FEDRIGO ($41.00) and PIERRE ROLLAND ($36.00). DAMIANO CUNEGO ($13.00) is an accomplished climber and ranks high in the betting but I feel he his higher aspirations of finishing up the top of the GC and this will affect teams letting him get large breaks over the mountains. I don’t know much about 2nd favourite Frenchman JOHN GADRET ($11.00) apart from the fact he rode well in the Giro finishing in 13th overall. Not really worth backing at the short price for me though.
To the Team Classification and hot favourites TEAM RADIOSHACK ($1.73) have a strong hold with Lance Armstrong, Chris Horner, Levi Leipheimer and Andreas Kloden all expected to finish high on the GC leaderboard. 2nd favourites TEAM SAXO BANK ($3.10) will be pinning their hopes on the Schlek brothers (Andy and Frank) being in the top couple, however, they really struggle for a 3rd rider as the other boys will be workhorses for them and will no doubt lose valuable time over the mountain stages when they are burnt out for the brothers to advance. ASTANTA ($13.00) are great value if Vinokourov can keep his head and work with Alberto Contador. Daniel Navarro and David de la Fuente could be the 3rd time for the team as they both have potential for a decent finish. BMC RACING ($151.00) are a real blow out chance if they work together and go for this title. As I stated above they have some really strong members of their team in Cadel Evans, George Hincappie, Alessandro Ballan along with a number of potential high finishers if one of those is to fail. LIQUIGAS-DOIMO ($11.00) are considered contenders for the team crown lead by IVAN BASSO but I don’t really see him or them being contenders at all this year. Basso is a one stage rider these days and really struggles to back it up for the 21 days of the tour.
To tonight’s 1st stage of the Tour (Not including the Prologue won by Fabian Cancellara last night) and you would have to think that MARK CAVENDISH ($2.00) and I think the price is an absolute steal. The 1st week of the tour almost always is settled with the sprinters and it’s hard to see how he won’t triumph in the first stage. Obviously other contenders in a sprint finish will be TYLER FARRAR ($5.00) and THOR HUSHOVD ($13.00) who will both be helped by the slightly uphill finish. ROBBIE McEWEN ($21.00) and ALESSANDRO PATTACHI ($15.00) will have to use their smarts to sneak a victory in this first week.
Our bets this weekend are:
MARK CAVENDISH to win Stage 1 at $2.00 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
MARK CAVENDISH to win the Green Jersey overall at $2.00 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
CADEL EVANS to beat Ivan Basso in the GC overall at $2.10 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
MICHAEL ROGERS to finish in the Top 10 in the GC Overall at $2.62 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
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What a great resource!