Tour de France Week 1 Review 13/7
The first week of the Tour is over and it certainly has been entertaining. A number of crashes in the early couple of stages reeked havoc with our Green Jersey (Sprinters/Points Classification) bet with Mark Cavendish but class shone through when he was dealt an even hand and he repaid the faithful with 2 stage wins in a row. He currently sits in 5th position in the Green Jersey competition only 35 points behind Thor Hushovd. That’s pretty good when you consider he got no points from 2 stages early on when expected to win due to peloton crashes in the final km’s. Allesandro Pettachi has returned to some of his old form with a few wins and looks strong on the bike. The fact that he is a former convicted drug cheat and that he has never finished a Tour de France leads me to not be concerned about him finishing again this year. Robbie McEwen has made the most of those earlier crashes with a few top finishes but after crashing into a photographer after the 7th stage he was forced to withdraw. Hushovd now is the strong favourite to retain his title from last year (We collected nicely on that last year) paying only $1.71 (Betfair), $1.62 (SportsBet) from Cavendish $5.30 (Betfair), $4.33 (SportsBet). I really can’t see anyone else being a force. The advantage for Hushovd is his strong climbing ability when has seen him sneak some points in the mountain stages. Cavendish will be waiting till the flat stages in the 2nd week and looking for more wins.
We didn’t make any outstanding predictions in the Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) and we are no closer to changing that opinion. I would disregard most of the action you have seen in the opening climbs as Frenchman Jerome Pineau $9.40 (Betfair), $7.00 (SportsBet) leads but there have been very few really big points available yet. The first HC (Largest) climb is on tonight’s stage and may give more of an indication who thinks they are a serious contender in this category. Sylvain Chavanel $13.00 (Betfair), $8.00 (SportsBet) has seen a return to the form that saw us pick him in a few stages last year with 2 wins and is high up the classification and I think the best value for money. Spaniards Rafael Valls $6.00 (Betfair), $5.00 (SportsBet) and Samuel Sanchez $18.00 (Betfair), $21.00 (SportsBet) have both shown great climbing ability in this year’s Tour so far, however, their high standing in the Overall GC will see them being slightly marked men and might find it tough to get in a breakaway in the later stages. Thomas Voeckler $28.00 (Betfair), $23.00 (SportsBet) is also a strong contender after picking up enough points in the first week to make him a threat. He also looked to be in really good form I the 8th stage which was the first real test for the climbers.
Probably the most action has been in the Yellow Jersey (Overall GC) with those crashes mentioned earlier on. After performing fairly averagely in the Prologue Cadel Evans $14.00 (Betfair), $7.00 (SportsBet) and Andy Schlek $3.50 (Betfair), $3.00 (SportsBet) got a real break when the crashes saw hot favourite Alberto Contador $1.72 (Betfair), $1.70 (SportsBet) lose a big chunk of time and leave the 2 of them out in front. Evans now leads Schlek by 20 seconds and Contador by 1m 01s. Schlek was the real shining light after the first big mountain stage (Stage 8) when he and Samuel Sanchez 2m 15s $130.00 (Betfair), $67.00 (SportsBet) rode away from the main contenders to get an extra 10 seconds on the rest of the field. Contador tried to respond but had nothing in the tank and in the end was left to ride over the line with the other main contenders. I think this really opens up the competition for a real smokie as the attacks will be thick and fast in the 2nd week of riding. Denis Menchov, 1m 10s, $75.00 (Betfair), $31.00 (SportsBet), Levi Leipheimer, 2m 14s, $150.00 (Betfair), $67.00 (SportsBet), Carlos Sastre, 2m 40s, $210.00 (Betfair), $110.00 (SportsBet) and Bradley Wiggins, 2m 45s, $220.00 (Betfair), $67.00 (SportsBet) should all be considered an outside chance. I still don’t think Ivan Basso, 2m 41s, $65.00 (Betfair), $31.00 (SportsBet) can win but he is high in the betting. As we predicted Michael Rogers is looking solid in the first week and currently sits in 10th position 2m 31s behind Evans. He is on track for a Top 10 finish.
Tonight’s stage as I have stated involves the first HC climb along with two Category 1 and one Category 2 climbs earlier on. While I think there will be fireworks in this stage on the final HC climb (Col de la Madeline) I don’t think massive chunks of time will be lost as there is a large downhill ride afterwards along with a flat finish. This means if riders get dropped over the top they could make it up by taking some risks on the way down. Contador is an excellent downhill rider though so if he does pinch a break he may be tough to reel back in. Evans has some good skills from his past as a World Champion Mountain bike rider whilst Schlek and Menchov struggle a bit in this area. There could be some carnage if riders get crazy on the way down.
No selections, however, I would lean towards Thomas Voeckler $51.00 or Alexander Vinokourov $26.00 who is a superb downhill rider in his own right. Voeckler may well save himself for tomorrow’s stage which also would suit him and a win on Bastille Day is always high on the agenda for the French.
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