August 28th – Saturday Racing Preview

Here at TopPunter we like to keep our selections to our clients, however, every now and then we like to show everyone the sort of emails you would receive if you were to sign up. Even those on the Free one month trial!

We start the day with a nice meeting at Rosehill which is on a good surface. I notice PAY AND PLAY has been strongly supported in the 3^rd of the day but after we missed the cash on him 2 starts back when running 3^rd, only to have him win next start I am going to leave him alone. The 4^th race of the day is the first of the big races with the Group 3 Concorde Stakes. REWARD FOR EFFORT really found its feet last year after taking out the Group 1 Blue Diamond at Caulfield. It’s very tempted to back it first up here but its only run the NSW way of going was on a very soggy Randwick race course and it held its own without being spectacular. I’m very interested to see how WINTER KING handles the rise in grade and the firmer surface. I was really impressed with its last win when it showed tremendous courage when not getting the run of the race. I really like that about a horse. WOW what a race we have in store for the group 1 Golden Rose and where do you possible look?? Golden Slipper winner CRYSTAL LILY was just short of a run when getting run down on the post first up at Caulfield. Clearly a filly with tremendous talent but you’re taking it on faith against this type of opposition. There are a few whispers from some big punters for MASQUERADER and I wouldn’t be putting them off. I’m actually leaning for the value in the top weight SQUAMOSA who is undefeated in its 3 starts. It has never been on the good surface so you are taking a risk but at the value I think it’s worth it. In the 7^th a TopPunter favourite in MORE JOYOUS is first up and looking for 5 straight wins. It has a great first up record but will be doing it tough from barrier 12 and 59kgs. I won’t bet against it but if you are dying to bet in the race I think SISTER MADLY has a huge chance with the speed likely to be on. For the Quaddie punters good luck in the last. It is so open it’s not funny and I’m not sticking my neck out anywhere there (Go the field for value!).

Caulfield is such a hard track to read at the best of times but on the wet track with more rain expected it really makes it quite a headache. I am so tempted just to skip it completely but I’ll do my best to find something. Race 4 is the Group 3 McNeil Stakes and I see it a race in 2 between BREITLING and WILLOW CREEK who both have great form on the softer tracks but I’ll stay away myself. SERVANT could be another for the value punters.  Huge money has come for HERE DE ANGELS in the 5^th race and although I love the horse I can’t support that first up on the boggy track. It has to be hard to go past STANZOUT after its strong win last start and recent good performances. Although the 6^th is only a Group 2 it has a Group 1 field. SO YOU THINK was one of the stars of the spring winning the coveted Cox Plate last year before being mowed down in the final 100m in the Emirates Stakes by TopPunter’s $40 winner in All American. It has a significant rise in weight to contend with here along with a very strong field having me looking elsewhere. WHOBEGOTYOU showed last year it can put in some strong runs over the shorter distances as his owners continue to baffle me with their attempts to make it a sprinter. I am convinced if they pushed this horse it could easily contest the Melbourne Cup but we’ll have to wait and see. It should come down to 2 runners in SHOOT OUT who has hit a purple patch of form and TYPHOON TRACY who was my pick of the star of last year and is resuming here. I kept going back to the form of FAINT PERFUME to convince myself to pick it but I think it might just find these horses a tad too nippy for her. The final race of the day puts quaddie punters in the same predicament as at Rosehill with a million chances.

For the rest of the meetings I really like Doomben and can see myself betting in a few races there tomorrow. I have picked out my favourite 3 bets but I will definitely be having more if conditions stay the same. At Morphettville we see UXORIOUS (who we mentioned as a maiden having some ability) taking on LEXCEN (a last start TopPunter selection that got scratched) in the 3^rd and I could give an argument for backing both of them. The heavily backed 2010 Melbourne Cup runner ALCOPOP makes its return to the track in the 7^th in its bid to have another crack at the big race in spring. I can’t see it winning here but it will be worth watching none the less. Belmont was ok but uninspiring today.

Our Early Mail Selections are:

2.30pm – Doomben Race 4 – 1. RIGHTSON (Managed Fund 5% Win)

3.15pm – Rosehill Race 5 – 3. SCOUTING WIDE (Managed Fund 2% Win)

3.41pm – Doomben Race 6 – 5. EQUABLE (Managed Fund 3% Win)

4.30pm – Belmont Race 4 – 3. YABIGORSE (Managed Fund 2% Win)

4.53pm – Doomben Race 8 – 3. BLUE JUPITER (Managed Fund 1% Each Way)

Best Roughie Selections are:

2.20pm – Caulfield Race 4 – 6. SERVANT (Currently $21)

4.16pm – Doomben Race 7 – 16. BUBBLED (Currently $41)

4.45pm – Caulfield Race 8 – 17. SACRED ORDERS (Currently $21)

6.30pm – Belmont Race 7 – 12. REAL HONOUR (Currently $21)

Horse Racing
28 August 2010 comment

August 12th – US PGA Championship

Tonight kicks off the final major for the season with the PGA Championship and without doubt it is the most open major of the year, if not the decade so far. With many of the top golfers not firing there is a real chance for one of the 2^nd or 3^rd tier golfers to step up and show what they are made of. The Championship will be played at Whistling Straits in Wisconsin, a course that looks more like something you would expect in a British Open that a US PGA. A large number of holes border the great Lake Michigan and its long layout is also peppered with danger sections that will bring many golfers to their knees if they aren’t careful. Birdies are definitely on the cards with huge greens giving golfers plenty of opportunities for long putts, however, if you don’t find the fairway off the tee you can easily rack up double or triple bogeys in a flash. Accuracy off the tee is definitely the main objective for the week.

I normally preview the top 10 golfers with their chances included but this time I will just give you my selections and why I think they are a chance.

BEN CRANE ($101)– Was in stellar form mid way through the season but has just tapered off a little in recent weeks. I’m not concerned about that at all as the recent tracks didn’t suit him as well as this layout will. He is an excellent driver of the golf ball and finished 9^th here in 2004.

ZACH JOHNSON ($101) – Another golfer going about his business in a quite but consistent fashion. He’ll love the steady play and long irons in. Not deadly with the putter but the key this week will be more about consistently getting the long putts close which he does nicely. He finished 37^th in 2004.

ADAM SCOTT ($51) – Has slid under the radar this year with some very nice performances. He is sitting in 32^nd on the FedEx Cup race and I really think he has a big chance to figure highly here after finishing in the Top 10 last week. His driving stats don’t look as impressive as the other contenders but that’s because when he is off he is terrible. The fact he is in form means he is hitting the ball straight and that makes him a real contender. Finished 9^th level with Crane in 2004

STEVE STRICKER ($26) – Has a real shot at winning his first major here. I have only ranked him 4^th in my picks because the others represent more value than him. Stricker missed the 2004 US PGA at Whistling Straits and he claims it was a real turning point in his career. He is excellent from tee to green and sinks more long putts than anyone on the tour when in form. He has been warming for something big with a few high finishes in his last couple of starts.

HUNTER MAHAN ($34) – Is in the best form out of anyone in the field after winning last weekend in impressive fashion. He is definitely one to get on when he’s on a hot streak. He drives the ball well and can hold his own on the greens. A little skinny in the price considering I don’t think this track suits him as well as others, however, when you are hitting the ball as well as he is it really doesn’t matter.

Our bets are:

STEVE STRICKER to beat Rory McIlroy at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

ADAM SCOTT to beat Nick Watney at $1.98 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

Golf
12 August 2010 comment [1]

August 3rd – PGA Tour Golf

All eyes int he golf world are at the Firestone Country Club in Akron, Ohio for the World Golf Championship and it’s a hot field with the World’s top 80 golfers accepting the invitation. TIGER WOODS ($5.50) heads the field as he makes his return to the game after a, close but no cigar, effort at the British Open a few weeks ago. Woods won this event comfortably last year before going on to lose the PGA Championship the week after in stunning circumstances to Y.E. YANG ($151.00). Interestingly Yang performed reasonably here as well finishing 19^th finishing with 2 strong rounds of 66 suggesting he took a while to get used to the layout of the course. Tang’s issue here will come from his length off the tee which is very important here on the South course which boast a number of long Par 4’s and one of the biggest Par 5’s in the game. The 16^th hole “The Monster” is 667 yards. When you look at the results from last year you can see how important driving length is with good drivers filling the top spots in ROBERT ALLENBY ($81.00), PADRIAG HARRINGTON ($21.00) and ANGEL CABRERA ($81.00). Allenby has been hanging in very well after injuring himself a few months ago. One can only think what might have been for him this year had he kept himself fit. Cabrera has missed the cut in 2 of his last 3 starts, however, they were on courses that didn’t suit him so I wouldn’t be too concerned there. As always with Angel you take him on faith as when he is on he is very good but when he isn’t it can be sickening to watch. This track really does suit him though. Harrington’s record is incredible this year. He has produced some very good results, without getting a win on the board but anyone who watched him play last weekend in Europe couldn’t back him with any confidence at all. Whilst at times he played with incredible brilliance his driving was incredibly bad. He had a driving percentage of 46% for the week and to be honest I am surprised it was that high. I think he is a great LAY Bet this week and next week were driving distance and accuracy is important. PHIL MICKELSON ($13.00) has to be considered because of this stat even though he’s not driving it as well as he has in the past. He has the length to get right on top of things here. 4 top 5 finishes in his past 7 events is hard to ignore. DUSTIN JOHNSON ($51.00) appeared to have shaken off his blowout at the US Open a month ago with a strong 14^th place finish at the British Open and a comfortable 19^th in the Scandinavian Masters where the track really didn’t suit. This guy bombs the ball out there and is usually extremely accurate for his length. A real contender here. RORY McILROY ($26.00) is another who’s been up the leaderboard in recent events but he’d want to keep his head at this course which could really damage him if he gets too aggressive with it. If he keeps his head under control he should be another who is really suited here. Finally I have to mention the TopPunter favourite in MARTIN KAYMER ($41.00) who is playing some awesome golf at the moment and although he is yet to convert it on the PGA Tour if he is going to do it anywhere it will be at Firestone. He’s recorded a number of top 10 and 20 finishes in his past 7 events and loves getting the ball a long way down the course.

Our Selections are:

LEE WESTWOOD to beat Padraig Harrington at $1.80 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

MARTIN KAYMER to beat Paul Casey at $1.97 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

DUSTIN JOHNSON to beat Hunter Mahan at $1.92 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

Golf
3 August 2010 comment [1]