September 18th – Horse Racing Preview
A great Newcastle carnival for us with 3 winners from our 4 bets and we are flying along in September. The good news continues with 2 dry tracks at our major meetings at Caulfield and Rosehill which has a bundle of Group races at both venues.
Caulfield kicks us off with their main races being the Group 1 Underwood Stakes (Race 6) and Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (Race 7). For those who haven’t been with TopPunter for a while both these 2 tracks today are very strongly weighted towards horses who have performed well here in the past. The Caulfield track in particular can have a really bad bias and a good jockey is crucial to take advantage of this. Having said all that I am throwing track knowledge out the back in our first bet of the day at Caulfield with PLATINUM PASSION in the 2nd race. This horse has had 2 very different runs and both times showed tremendous courage to come away with good wins. Whilst this is a strong rise in class again I often follow horses like this that show a willingness to win even when faced with varying conditions. The 3rd race of the day really gets the blood boiling with some great form to read through. HERE DE ANGELS would have to be taken on trust after a very disappointing run at Caulfield last start. The track was heavy that day which it is not a fan of and does find a nice firm surface this time round so you could easily forget that run. Also a superb record at the track I inspiring. I can see AVENUE crossing The Angels in the early stages and it will be interesting to see how much it has to work to get there. A really good run 2 starts back at this track when setting a ridiculous pace before just faded on the post beaten a length. Then we scroll down to a horse we’ve followed closely since its first start when we tagged it as a future Group winner in UXORIOUS who has won 4 times in its short 6 race career. I’m very keen to see how it handles itself here. Race 4 is the Group 3 Caulfield Guineas Prelude and I am very keen on favourite TOORAK TOFF who has been on fire in its past 2 starts at Caulfield and the Group 1 Golden Rose at Rosehill. This horse shouldn’t really be suited by the Caulfield track but Damien Oliver really has a good feel for this horse lately and I can’t see anyone in this field challenging it for the win. The next race is the Group 3 Thousand Guineas Prelude and it is an absolute lottery. Alot of the early support has been for the Queensland galloper RINGA RINGA ROSIE who won with ultimate ease last start at Doomben. Having its first start here is a real concern for me especially for a horse who has drawn wide and will get back. I’d be more inclined to go with SISTINE ANGEL who overcame the very talented Servant last start at Caulfield and appears as though the 1400m will suit it to the ground. Might even be worth going a real outsider in SHEILA’S STAR who you would be backing with faith of whether the distance suits but you are getting huge odds to counter that. Has shown me enough to suggest a good performance wouldn’t be a massive shock. What a race we have in store for the first Group 1 of the day in the Underwood Stakes (Race 6). Melbourne Cup winner SHOCKING was brilliant last start winning the Makybe Diva Stakes over a superb field showing its skills as a miler are as good as its distance work. I still have to draw a line through it tomorrow though as the Caulfield track has not been a favourite of his. This horse loves to get back and race wide with free galloping room and that just doesn’t allow it enough time to get warmed up in the relatively short straight. METAL BENDER has been showing some good form on the wet tracks in Sydney but will welcome the move to Caulfield and a dry track where it boasts 5 wins from 7 starts. I think it is right in this race. HEART OF DREAMS is drawn to get the run of the race and I think this time Shocking won’t be able to run him down. However, it will be lead by SO YOU THINK who is perfectly suited here and is almost a certain leader after drawing barrier 2. I think the $1.90 price tag is very skinny in such a strong field but it deserves to be a good favourite. The 7th race of the day is the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and punters are being very cautious about early favourite DOUBTFUL JACK who is looking for 5 wins in a row. This horse was very dominant down the straight at Flemington last start but will need to be on its game at Caulfield where it has got to get warmed up a long way from home. Having said that I think the field is a little weaker this time round and should go very close if it doesn’t get there. An old favourite in LA ROCKET is massive odds most likely due to its poor run first up at Caulfield a few weeks ago. However, it way pay to forget this run as this is a tough horse who will appreciate the firmer footing rather than the bog it found last start. RIGHTFULLY YOURS has to be considered a contender after it won in the wet at Caulfield last start. It has a good barrier draw and the firmer track is not a worry with a Group 3 victory at this track on a good surface earlier in the year. NO EVIDENCE NEEDED has also found itself on wet tracks in recent times and performing well even though its record on good tracks is even better. With the good draw and light weight you’d have to think it’s a huge chance here. The big races continue with the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes (Race 8). The race appears to be between FANJURA and MOUDRE and you can see an argument for both. However, I’m leaning towards Fanjura who has won over the distance here before which is a huge plus whereas Moudre appears to be suited to the 2000m but yet to win above 1800m. With Moudre likely to go back from the wide draw I just think it might struggle to catch Fanjura who should get a great position from barrier 4. The final race of the day is another Group 3 and it is a very tough way to finish. My advice is if you have already won for the day then get out now, if you are behind for the day then get out now. Unless you find some absolute smokie or a crazy triffecta that you want to throw a few dollars on for fun. For the desperate punters I’d include AMBERINO, I’M A HUSSY, CASUAL FRIDAY, VALENTINE MISS and ABSOLUTE FAITH.
Finally to Rosehill and it’s another huge meeting to review with a number of Group 2 races for the day. The first race starts off with SLATER who most of you will remember suffered a Heart Arrhythmia last start when a 5% selection for us. The condition will stick with it for life and you have no idea when it will strike again. Obviously I really liked it last start but I refuse to bet in a race its involved in from now on. Also I was a huge fan of GEORGETTE SILK last preparation and I hope it returns to form tomorrow. The first Group race of the day is the Group 2 Premier Stakes (Race 3) and betting is dominated by the very short favourite HOT DANISH. It’s hard to argue with the price though for a horse that has had 6 wins from 7 first up starts and loves the Rosehill track. The only potential danger appears to be HINCHENBROOK who will appreciate a real weight drop here. The Group 2 Tea Rose Stakes is race 4 on the card and favourite PARABLES looks a bit short for my liking. This horse has been racing well but not enough to be a very short favourite in Some good value about AMBERS WALTZ could be worth following if you aren’t a fan of the top 2. The horse is much more comfortable on top of the ground and should be running on strong. Another Group 2 with the Hill Stakes in Race 5 and I’m tempted to go with an old favourite of mine in TRIPLE HONOUR but his record at the track is fairly ordinary. I found it interesting that HAWK ISLAND was scratched from the Newcastle Cup on Thursday to aim for this race. For me it was much more suited on Thursday and think it will be doing it tough here. DESCARADO looks like it will be a handy distance horse which brings it right into contention here. Yet to win over further than 1400m but it has had a couple of placings in Group races over 2000m and 2400m. Race 6 is the Group 3 Gloaming Stakes over 1800m and I am really keen on the topweight LION TAMER. A former NZ galloper who impressed in its first start coming from well back to score a win at Randwick. The funny thing about that day is the track was a bog but owners are convinced the horse races much better on top of the going so anything could happen here. The obvious danger is favourite SASA who was only beaten a length by Toorak Toff last start and you have to respect that form line, however, I think the price is too good to turn down on Lion Tamer. REPROBRATE is tempting in the 7th as it was a TopPunter selection last month, however, it did fail to win that day and it again couldn’t quite find the line the next start so I’ll leave it alone. The 1500m Shannon Stakes ends the day at Rosehill and it is a fitting way to finish with a nice looking race. ONCE WERE WILD looked good in running 2nd to Brasilera last start and has an unbeaten record on top of the ground. Vintedge, who won for us at Newcastle on Thursday, also ran 3rd in the same race so the form is well franked. Favourite NEESON has done most of its best work on the wet tracks in recent times but was very handy on the good going early on in its career so should be considered a serious contender again here. STRYKER could be value runner in the field after being scratched from Wednesday’s Cameron Handicap at Newcastle for this race. Funnily enough the horse was beaten only 1.5 lengths by Kenny’s World 2 starts back and Kenny’s World went on to win the Cameron on Wednesday.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
12.35pm – Caulfield Race 2 – 7. PLATINUM PASSION (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
1.20pm – Doomben Race 2 – 1. CHILLY RULER (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
1.45pm – Caulfield Race 4 – 1. TOORAK TOFF (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
4.00pm – Rosehill Race 6 – 1. LION TAMER (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
4.45pm – Belmont Race 4 – 12. PEGACHI (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
Best Roughie Selections are:
2.20pm – Caulfield Race 5 – 11. SHEILA’S STAR (Currently $51)
3.30pm – Morphettville Race 5 – 8. DAYDREAM CHARLIE (Currently $16)
3.40pm – Caulfield Race 7 – 3. LA ROCKET (Currently $51)
6.00pm – Belmont Race 6 – 3. GEYSERS PEAK (Currently $17)
September 14th – Newcastle Cameron Handicap Review
Another great day for us on Saturday with some good winners. I know a few of you are following the new addition of the “Best Roughie Selections” and doing quite well out of it. From the 5 selections on Saturday we had Perturbo winning at around $20 whilst Spirit Song and Bodgie Business both ran places at good odds.
To Wednesday racing and we start with the feature racing of the day being the Newcastle card with a 2 day carnival for the Cameron Handicap (Wednesday) and Gold Cup (Thursday). The first race that is worth mentioning is the Hurricane Stakes (Race 5) over 900m and it appears to be a race in 2 but it’s hard to know where to look. The topweight WELKOM GOLD reads very well and with the addition of the rain falling from the skies its chances just get stronger and stronger. The big black mark against it is being first-up (even though it has a good record first-up) with 60kgs. That’s a huge weight to carry first up and you’d have to be right on your game to win. Meanwhile much better weighted is HONEST TRUTH who I don’t believe is in the same class but with the weight relief it brings itself right into consideration. You have to add to that the fact it was extremely impressive in its only run at Newcastle some time ago. The Group 3 Spring Stakes is next on the card and it is a surprisingly weak field of 3 year olds this year. The standout appears to be the topweight and favourite ILOVETHISCITY who’s only negative is the fact it has drawn barrier 15. The barrier draw is an issue at Newcastle from the 1600m but the fact it won’t mind going back and will have plenty of time to wind up on the long Newcastle straight. The run last start when it was a certainty beaten in the Golden rose to the top 3 yr old in the country in Toorak Toff was very impressive, suggesting the 1600m should suit it down to the ground. I haven’t made it a 5% selection, even though I’m tempted, because of the barrier with such a big field to contend with as well. GIRESUN has received some support in betting due to its strong runs in recent times but I think it’s been flattered in the race and don’t think the results truly show the ability of the horse. MANAHARA could be a blow out result at good odds with the ideal draw which should give it the gun run of the race. The feature race of the day is the Group 3 Cameron Handicap (Race 7) and it is a very deserving strong field to contend. TRUSTING has received strong support to take over favouritism from STAR OF OCTAGONAL but I’m not convinced the change should’ve been so strong. Trusting has a habit of leaving things till the last minute and it may find a few horses just a bit too nippy over the 1300m even though it has a nice huge straight to deal with here. Star of Octagonal can only really be taken on trust being first up and not really tested in its career to date by my accounts. I’m actually leaning towards 2 roughies in the race in PRINCE BRAEMAN and BAY WINDOW. Prince Braeman will be much better suited from a great barrier draw that won’t see it stuck 3 wide like it did in its last start where it held its ground well when entitled to drop right out. It’s very well weighted and the rain from this afternoon and tonight will just take the sting out of the track enough to help it out some more. Meanwhile Bay Window was strong in its last start win and I think deserving of a mention at the huge odds.
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August 9th – PGA Tour Fedex Playoffs
The FedEx Cup gets to the real business end of proceedings with the Top 70 ranked point scorers challenging for the BMW Championship and the right to move forward to next week’s Tour Championship. The course this week is the sometimes complex Cog Hill Country Club which has taken many a player down to size in previous years. Many players are fighting for the FedEx life needing a high finish to ensure they are playing for the big cash next weekend. One of those players is the World Number 1 TIGER WOODS ($7.00) who needs to finish in the Top 5 to ensure a place next week. It’s a tough ask for a guy who is really fighting to find that magical swing we all know he has. However, you’d be a brave person to back against the guy who is the defending champion and has won at Cog Hill 5 times in the past. He’s also shown great improvement in recent weeks with finishes of 11th and 12th in rounds 1 and 2 of the FedEx playoffs. Gee it’s hard to look past MATT KUCHER ($23.00) who has been in stellar form this year with a win and 10 top ten’s. The only player who can boast a similar record this year is STEVE STRICKER ($13.00) who would be my top pick for this week after 2 wins and 8 top 10’s this season. He’s only finished outside the top 20 once in his past 6 starts and has 4 top 10’s during that time. His big key weapon was when he found his putter again as he is without doubt the deadliest putter on tour. This course requires golfers to take chances and sink birdies so even at the low price I think he is worth a dash. A win would see him as the red hot favourite to take the overall FedEx title and the $10million prize. There are a couple of smokies that could surprise this week after strong performances in recent times. It’s hard to go past a couple of Aussies (But not the highest ranked one in JASON DAY ($31.00)) in ADAM SCOTT ($19.00) and GEOFF OGILVY ($34.00). Scott has really returned to the form that saw him win the Players Championship many years ago and his consistent results in recent weeks suggest he is really finding his swing and comfortable within himself to really challenge the big guys on tour. I believe Cog Hill suits him perfectly and a win wouldn’t surprise. Meanwhile Ogilvy has been up and down this year but his finish last weekend at The Deutsche Bank Championship really caught my eye and if he gets away to a strong start he is another who could really enjoy this layout. Lastly RYAN PALMER ($67.00) deserves a mention after a 5th and an 11th in his past 2 outing in the FedEx Playoffs. Form like that is too hard to ignore when you are taking on the world’s top golfers. He is very highly positioned for a crack at the big cash next week and would be chomping at the bit to get some more points this week to move further up the ladder.
Our Selections are:
GEOFF OGILVY to beat Bubba Watson at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
RYAN PALMER to beat Vijay Singh at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
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