October 30th – Derby Day Preview
The biggest day of racing in Australia for the pure punters with 5 Group 1’s at Flemington on Derby Day. Whilst the Melbourne Cup has the glitz and glamour it is Derby Day which attracts the quality fields and biggest pools all day. The track is currently a good 3 but plenty overnight rain came last night and I heard the quote “It’s raining Swimming Pools”.
We start the days review with the Group III Lexus Stakes which last year produced a stunning win by the eventual Melbourne Cup winner in Shocking which goes to show the importance of a race such as this. I have to stick with my early Melbourne Cup prediction in MOUDRE who is currently $51 for the big race and needs to win here to earn a spot in the field. This horse loves the track with 2 wins from 2 starts here and is built to run the distance. I still believe it’s worth getting on it to win both races and will be putting a bit more on myself. Having said that it is a strong race and there are a number of chances. The main contender I see will come from MALUCKYDAY who will be a huge chance in the Melbourne Cup should it achieve the victory here. It’s another who is big odds for Tuesday but it is bred to go the distance and looks like it is screaming for more distance.
STAR WITNESS heads the betting in the 4th race (Coolmore Stakes) down the straight in the first Group I of the day and I am very confident of its chances. In its only attempt down the straight at Flemington it really looked comfortable and stretched out nicely. SOLAR CHARGED has to be seriously considered after its devastating victory on Caulfield Cup day.
SO YOU THINK is once again an extremely short favourite in the next Group I race (Mackinnon Stakes) and it’s hard to see it being beat. Although this is a great field, many of these horses are aiming for the Melbourne Cup and therefore may just be going for a run. I still doubt its ability to win the Cup. With the incoming weather there are a number of contenders and I think it is more a lay option than it was last week. DESCARADO and SHOCKING should be right in the finish again, whilst TRUSTING will appreciate the wet conditions and long straight and will be flying home late after finding plenty of trouble last week.
In the 6th we have a solid field for the Group I Victoria Derby and REKINDLED INTEREST assumes favouritism after its strong win last start. It has been heavily backed in betting for its past couple of starts and that was the first time it has produced the goods. That is a worrying sign and makes me want to stay away from the race completely. If you are forced to bet then I would have to stick with the topweight RETRIEVE who was always the strong favourite for this race yet has been partly forgotten. It has a good record in the wet and looks like the 2500m really suits. For the multiples I’ll include DIGITAL FORTRESS who has finished its races off nicely and again likes the damp conditions.
TYPHOON TRACY goes out a very short and well supported favourite in the Myer Classic but I find it hard to get on board with the puzzling ridding tactics been used on this horse this campaign. I think there is better value in NO EVIDENCE NEEDED and there has also been strong support for the Caulfield Guineas winner in YOSEI.
In the Salinger Stakes down the straight I like the look of CATAPULTED who held its own against the great Hay List last start and a good record over this trip at Flemington along with good wet track for is enough for me. It’s a strong race though and it could be interesting to see how chopped up the track is getting by this stage and whether horses start going down the outside rail instead. SWIFT ALLIANCE is value first up with a good record at this track and first up running whilst CHASM is probably worth putting in a few multiples. The only reason though I’m not backing Catapulted as an early mail selection is because of DUBLEANNY who we backed last week for a luckless 2nd place. The wet weather won’t bother her and it is undefeated down the straight at Flemington.
The last race is an absolute lottery which is why the only tip I’ll give is to include $61 Kiwi GOOD CONTROL who will be loving this rain and might just be a blow out to finish the day.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
1.20pm – Flemington Race 4 – 1. STAR WITNESS (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
1.42pm – Rosehill Race 4 – 2. SCARF (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
3.27pm – Doomben Race 4 – 7. HUSS (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
5.55pm – Ascot Race 4 – 2. PLAYING GOD (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
Our Best Roughies are:
4.46pm – Rosehill Race 7 – 9. HELLO MISTER (Currently $15)
5.10pm – Flemington Race 9 – 7. GOOD CONTROL (Currently $61)
6.17pm – Doomben Race 8 – 15. ASHMA’S GOLD (Currently $31)
October 22nd – WS Cox Plate Day Review
We start at Mooney Valley which is hosting the WS Cox Plate day and for those who haven’t been before I thoroughly recommend it. I’ve done all the big race days around the country and this is the one I always want to come back to. Flemington is great venue for fitting a 100,000 people but the closeness of the Mooney Valley circuit and the way it is designed with the highly cambered track that in some way resembles a velodrome (I’m getting a bit carried away there) creates an atmosphere that isn’t matched in Australian Racing.
To the races and Race 5 is the 1st race I’m looking at with the mouth-watering Schweppes Sprint which sees boom sprinter BLACK CAVIAR go out an extremely short favourite and rightly so. It does find itself against much stiffer opposition this week in HOT DANISH, MELITO and EAGLE FALLS (I’m expecting some big this week) but they shouldn’t be any real match for Caviar, especially on this track.
Race 6th is the AAMI VASE over 2040m and I am amazed to yet again see REKINDLED INTEREST go out as favourite. This horse has been strongly supported the past few weeks and I can’t see why. It has shown some ability but not enough for the amount of money people seem to be investing on it. The horse I like but is under the odds for me is BULLBARS who has had a couple of horror runs with some bad barrier draws in recent starts but with a good barrier it could really find itself in the firing line come the finish.
Race 7 is the GOLD CUP over 2500m and PRECENDENCE is looking to move itself up the Order of Entry to gain a Melbourne Cup start which would probably be confirmed if it wins and gains a decent penalty. I’m leaning for a bit more value as it has drawn wide and think another Melbourne Cup hopeful in ABOVE AVERAGE, who ran a strong placing behind Harris Tweed at its last start, is much better value at the double figure odds.
Race 8 is the WS Cox Plate and it looks to be a given to the hot favourite and defending champion in SO YOU THINK. It is so popular in betting that it has seen the unprecedented promotion from SportsBet where they have paid everyone out who had already backed it declaring it unbeatable. If it goes down it will cost them over $100,000. The horses to watch for their finishes are ZIPPING (Who has a good record at the Valley and has placed in the Cox Plate before), TRUSTING (Looks really strong in its finishes at the moment and may just find itself lost on the turn but is quick in top gear), MORE JOYOUS (she has been outstanding this season and gone from strength to strength. I have to question her up at the 2040m although she does get some weight relief).
To Rosehill and the only race that really created some talking interest was the 1st where boom colt SLATER tests the punters faith again. This horse has gone from devastating to horrific one start to the next. I have informed TopPunter subscribers this is due to a Heart Arrhythmia, however, the commentators never seem to mention it whenever it disappoints. I say only back it when it gets to $3 and you will win in the end.
Ascot has a great card and I actually looked a chance at a few bets there this weekend. The prime race is the Group III Prince of Wales which sees some of the best talent in WA contesting. Many of these horses have been TopPunter picks and won us some good coin over the past couple of years and I really can’t (and don’t want to) separate them. ELLIOTO, WARATAH’S SECRET, FOR YOUR EYES ONLY have won for us, whilst WERD has performed well against these horses in recent times. One of my favourite Victorian gallopers in LET GO THOMMO also contests the race and is at great value.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
1.20pm – Mooney Valley Race 2 – 9. QUEEN’S FASHION (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
2.05pm – Mooney Valley Race 3 – 7. DUTCHY’S LASS (Horse Managed 2% Win)
3.10pm – Eagle Farm Race 4 – 4. SECRET’S UNTOLD (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
4.20pm – Rosehill Race 6 – 2. ROTHESAY (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
5.19pm – Eagle Farm Race 7 – 9. JOPA (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
6.30pm – Ascot Race 5 – 13. MCSCAR (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
Our Best Roughies are:
2.40pm – Mooney Valley Race 4 – 4. LA ROCKET (Currently $26)
3.50pm – Eagle Farm Race 5 – 14. INTERVIEW (Currently $21)
6.20pm – Mooney Valley Race 9 – 4. GHOSTMILK (Currently $13)
October 19th – Caulfield Review and Geelong and Melbourne Cup Preview
We can take a lot out of Saturday’s Caulfield Cup meeting on Saturday even if we didn’t do so well with our selections ourselves. Some brilliant runs on the day which should be good feeder races for us later on.
1. SHOCKING – Haven’t seen a better Melbourne Cup prelude run since its win in 2009 in the Lexus on Derby Day. The only other horse to show similar speed and strength in lead up runs was Makybe Diva.
2. VEREENA MISS – Her win in the last looked the goods. We did mention in the preview that it looked to be a really strong chance after some strong performances in the provincials and it duly saluted in the get out stakes.
3. GINGA DUDE – In winning the David Jones Cup over 2000m looked really good. Although it was able to control the tempo and in doing so had a fairly easy run, it really dominated a good field and I am expecting some big things from this horse.
To tomorrows racing and we get to see some Melbourne Cup hopefuls try and follow the path that Bauer, Media Puzzle and On A Jeune have followed in the past couple of years to great success when having the Geelong Cup over 2400m as its lead in. MOUDRE was our early pick for the big race and it has its work cut out for it with a wide barrier denting its chances of securing a spot in November. Still with such a light weight to run with if it gets up here it will likely only be penalised 1kg and will be a real contender. The horse that could replace Moudre as my favourite rough pick is EXCEPTIONALLY who had a brilliant run in just going down to Harris Tweed in its last start. Harris Tweed has now fully franked that form with a strong 2nd place in the Caulfield Cup on the weekend so at $65 to win the big race you would have to feel a bit excited about your chances. The danger of course is even with the victory it wouldn’t be guaranteed a start but it would be a fair chance.
To the rest of the meeting and I like the look of favourite MAGNIFIQUE SOLEIL in the Geelong Classic even though it has been easy in betting. This horse has been in really strong form in recent times and I see no reason for that not to continue again tomorrow. The rest of the card is ok but looks to be a tough day for punting. Geelong has always been a good form guide to follow and the punters down there seem to be on the pulse so follow any betting moves.
October 15th – Caulfield Cup
Well I have to mention first up thank you to all the emails from those who’ve been following the Best Roughies after we almost pulled off the miracle pick with Heartsareforlove coming 2nd in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas after starting at a whopping $201 and paying around $30 the place on most of the tote markets. In fact I know some subscribers got over $40 the place on Betfair.
To Saturday’s racing and the rain is back and has swept the nation with only Belmont surviving with a dry track. Randwick is currently only a Dead 4 but I am expecting that to be significantly decreased in the morning with only the very strong winds a chance of keeping it relatively dry. Caulfield is the feature meeting of the day with the Group 1 Caulfield Cup the main event. The first of the Group races is the Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes and hot favourite RETRIEVE heading the betting. I am a little concerned with the price of Retrieve as I think the 2000m is right at his limit and with the heavy track in addition he could find the last part of this trip very tough. Funnily enough the horse that has shown improvement every time he steps up in distance is friendless in the betting with YULALONA who has impressed me with the way it is finishing off its races and a record of 3 wins and 2 placings for 5 starts its hard to argue. Again REKINDLED INTEREST has been installed one of the favourites even though I am yet to see anything to really impress me so far. The horse hasn’t run a bad race but hasn’t done anything to suggest it is anything special. There has been a bit of interest in DIGITAL FORTRESS who has made its way down from Sydney after a couple of strong wins. The last race he came from last on the turn to storm over the top of the field on a heavy surface which is of great interest here.
In the 5th race we have a the Group 2 Caulfield Sprint and I was looking forward to getting on EAGLE FALLS after its recent strong runs but I am a bit weary now with the wet weather as it is untested in these conditions. SOUL has been well supported in the early betting and although its last 2 runs have been strong I won’t be taking it on at this track as favourite. Michael Rodd has had a few weird rides this season and he was questioned for his last start on DEFINITELY READY although I think he didn’t do too much wrong. The horse destroyed its rivals in its preparation last season and he rode it with confidence and the horse failed to deliver the final blow. It is at very generous each way odds and could be worth a crack. I am really surprised DUBLEANNY isn’t much shorter in the betting considering its recent form. This horse has behaved badly at its past 2 starts but still managed to win with style against some strong opposition.
The Group 3 Betfair Stakes has a field worthy of a Group 1 with DAO DAO the early favourite and strongly supported in betting. Once again though you’d have to be a keen supporter of the horse to take the odds against a field full of talent. ROTHERA loves the wet tracks but may struggle to get home in time on the short Caulfield straight. JUNGLE RULER has halved its early price and you’d have to think that has a lot to do with the rain as this horse loves a swim. Super sprinter ALL SILENT will be much fitter for its first up run and I’d expect it to be making solid late ground at the end of the race.
The Group 3 David Jones Cup over 2000m is the 7th race of the day. The first horse I come across of interest is RAINBOW STYLING who I’ve always considered to be a bit of a wet tracker even though his form doesn’t really show it. The Kiwi horse GINGA DUDE has been consistent on the wet tracks but you are always going on blind faith when they make the journey over for the first time. You have to be a favourite of PURPLE to back it as I can never seem to find it. A lot has to do with the way the horse has been ridden in the past and until you know you can never really be confident. ZOOMIN looks the goods to me and I am very tempted to back it each way at the odds presented at the moment. Loves the wet and has won here before.
The Caulfield Cup is next on the cards and as always it’s a strong field and I’ve always regarded this race as the toughest race to pick for the year with a tight track and a huge field where luck plays just as big a part as talent in many respects. SHOCKING is the favourite and has been in outstanding form this season and I would even go as far as saying he’s in better form than when he won the Melbourne Cup last year. However, the Caulfield track doesn’t really suit and his record is pretty average at the track. METAL BENDER could have its best chance to secure the race with a nice draw a big bonus for him securing a tidy spot in travelling. The wet is not an issue and look for it to try and get a late split. A couple of international runners are next in line and you really are betting on them with blind faith. ALCOPOP has been warming for a more distance in its races and it gets its chance to really have a good crack at the Cup this year. Drawn barrier 22 today is going to make things pretty tough so Mark Zahra will have his work cut out trying to find some cover in running. HERCULIAN PRINCE would have his fans out there with some good wins (including one for us) this preparation, but the big marks have been his past 2. The 2nd last he dropped right out and looked to be done with racing but maybe he just choked down as his next start he was devastating in the Group 1 Metropolitan over the same distance as today. Should be in the lead or nearby so would be likely to be right in the finish if it settles.
The Group 2 Tristarc Stakes is next up and favourite HOT DANISH finally has some backable odds after being deep in the red numbers in recent starts. Had to do it the tough way last start but was really impressive in winning and the wet track is of no concern as this horse loves to swim. Jamie Winks has got to be very crafty to give NO EVIDENCE NEEDED a good run during the race but if he does it should be right in the finish as it has been in its past 3 starts. I’M A HUSSY has a really good chance of getting an easy lead in front of the field and if that happens they won’t catch her (Biggest danger is ALOHA steaming across from the wide draw and over racing).
Keep an eye on VAREENA MISS in the last race of the day. This horse has come through the provincials in its 2 starts so far but could not have been more impressive in its last start winning by over 3 lengths in comfortable fashion. If you are still betting by now then jump on board for a bit.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
12.10pm –Caulfield Race 2 – 2. TERRITORY (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
2.00pm – Caulfield Race 5 – 7. DUBLEANNY (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
3.00pm – Randwick Race 4 – 4. LEGSMAN (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
7.20pm – Ascot Race 7 – 12. SWEET SERENITY (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
Our Best Roughies are:
2.40pm – Caulfield Race 6 – 12. ROTHERA (Currently $12)
4.50pm – Caulfield Race 8 – 8. I’M A HUSSY ($19)
5.10pm – Randwick Race 7 – 10. WAVE DANCING (Currently $15)
5.47pm – Randwick Race 8 – 15. OFCOURSEICAN (Currently $26)
6.45pm – Ascot Race 6 – 7. MEKONG MISS (Currently $19)
October 9th – Caulfield Guineas Day
As we get deeper into the Spring Season we are greeted with better meetings every time we open the form and today is no exception. Caulfield is obviously the feature meeting with three Group 1 events in the Yalumba Stakes, Toorak Handicap and the feature race The Caulfield Guineas.
We start at Caulfield and the Group racing start in Race 3 with a very important race to watch in relation to the Melbourne Cup form in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes over 2400m. As I have stated a few times my early tip for the Melbourne Cup is MOUDRE who assumes favouritism here but I’m not overly confident it can win or indeed needs to win. This horse appears as though it will be more suited the longer the races get, however, it doesn’t possess a really quick turn of foot so the Caulfield track probably doesn’t really suit it very well. I would like to see it get its balance and finish the race off well but it may find some others a little too nippy for it this week. It does require a win to get an automatic start in the Caulfield Cup, however, I honestly think they would be looking more at the Melbourne Cup. My other big chance in the Melbourne Cup is PRECENDENCE who is the 2nd favourite here and probably a lot better suited to the race today. Trained by the great Bart Cummings you be sure this horse has been aimed at the big races in the spring and it is another who needs the win here to confirm its spot in the Caulfield Cup field. It would be remiss of me not to mention the other big contender in the race in LINTON who also likes to get back, however, the big difference is that this horse has a much faster finish and if it settles it could cause big problems for the 2 favourites. From the distance runners to the sprinters for Race 4 in the Group 2 Schillachi Stakes over 1000m and it is another strong field headed by the red hot favourite in BLACK CAVIAR. Black Caviar is undefeated in its 5 start race career and was super impressive last year finishing the season off with two Group 2 victories in comfortable fashion. However, for me you’d have to be cautious of a horse that is first-up in almost a year for the very short priced quote against some horses that on their day could really cause him some headaches. I’ve spoken a few times during the Autumn about my thoughts of the abilities of WINTER KING who is having its first start down south. This horse shows tremendous courage and would be suited by the Caulfield layout if it enjoys running on the opposite leg. MIC MAC is a class runner who has taken on the best sprinters and milers in the past and although this is a little shorter than I think he would like, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him in the finish. And I haven’t even mentioned STAR WITNESS who has a great record at the track and is very well weighted or FIRST COMMAND who won at the track at all of his 4 starts here. All these signs really surprise me that people are still jumping on board at the very short quote (Even though Black Caviar is an extremely quality horse). A small field contests the first Group 1 of the day in the Yalumba Stakes but it certainly doesn’t lack class. SO YOU THINK is the deserving red hot favourite and its one of the few times I am seriously contemplating taking the very short odds (Around $1.50) as I really can’t see how this horse can be beaten. Those who have been with me for a while would know I have an unwritten rule never to back a horse at odds lower than $1.70 as it is racing and strange things happen in races and horses can be put off when things don’t go as planned. However, I watched So You Think do everything wrong last start and it still managed to pull away from some quality gallopers in ease and looks impossible to beat, not only tomorrow but also in the Cox Plate in a few weeks time. WHOBEGOTYOU was gifted the win with some questionable tactics from other horses in its last race but it still was very strong at the finish and should be respected whilst I am really keen to see the run of ALCOPOP. Many have already forgotten this horse who was one of the favourites for the Melbourne Cup last year but hasn’t shown the form so far this year. I have really liked the way it has finished off its races and I think the owners might be targeting a Caulfield Cup (and the Melbourne Cup) so I would expect it to be running on strong at the finish again. Although MORE JOYOUS assumes favouritism in the next Group 1 of the day in the Toorak Handicap it is going to a very tough ask for the horse looking to extend its already impressive winning streak. Having her first start in Victoria and needing to carry the most weight for a Toorak winner in 21 years is just a couple of things that make this a tough ask. The other thing is the quality and very large field that contests this race and poses a dozen question marks about where to look for a winner. I can’t go past a horse that has been in red hot form recently in SPACECRAFT who looked really strong in its last win at Mooney Valley. The Caulfield layout doesn’t really suit him but he has managed to secure a win and a placing from his 3 starts here. I’ve never seen DRUMBEATS look much better than it did in its last start but this is another step up in class again and it hasn’t got a great record the Victorian way of going. Finally I’m going to include LA ROCKET only on faith as its last couple of runs haven’t been great. I think it is much better suited over the mile and with the lack of pace in the race it really could give a sight for a long time at massive odds. The feature race of the day is the Caulfield Guineas and like so many races earlier today it is a ripper of a field and will no doubt be a spectacle. I like both the favourites in this race in TOORAK TOFF and ILOVETHISCITY but think they will be fully tested here in a strong field with both horses showing a preference to get back and look for luck in the straight. Both have shown the strength to make a sustained run from a long way out which will definitely help but it will be tough going. The most strongly supported runner in the early markets has been REKINDLED INTEREST who has also been getting back and finishing its races off nicely. I’m not convinced it’s got more ability than the top 2 though. The horse I have a really keen interest on here, even though I don’t think it can win, is BULLBARS who really impressed me last start. It will get a much better run than the top 3 and will be further forward in the field so I am certainly not counting it out but the main thing that impressed me was its strength over the final stages after suffering 2 fairly tough runs its last 2 starts. The Group 3 Thoroughbred Stakes is the 8th race on the card and by now you will no doubt be overwhelmed by what has been, I’m sure, a great days racing so be careful you don’t get carried away and back something for the sake of it. This year’s Golden Slipper favourite MILITARY ROSE heads the betting and I can definitely see why. This horse has shown some real talent even though it has been ridden poorly by jockey Michael Rodd. That does pose a few question marks for me as Rodd is a superb jockey and maybe he had been given instruction to keep Military Rose out wide out of trouble . However, I really think this could be the start of a good string of wins for a horse who has huge potential. I am tempted to have a go at AVENUE in the last after its strong win at the Valley last start but I just can’t see it getting such a smooth run this time round in the larger field. If you have had a good day and want to back something then get on board as it will be tough to beat but I am a little wary of FLOWERCHILD who has a horror barrier draw but if Dwayne Dunn can find a good position in running it could come home over the top of the Moody trained horse.
Rosehill is a fairly average meeting with many of the country trainers taking the opportunity to bring their horses to town for a metro win whilst the big boys are out of town. Until you get to the 6th race of the day which is quite strong. TopPunter favourite JOKU comes into the race at a nice price after disappointing at its first up race at Randwick where it dropped right out of contention. The track was playing a little biased that day and the horse generally comes to hand very quickly so it could be worth sticking with here. MENTALITY is another who looks good at the odds in a field of this nature but you always have to take this horse on trust. On his day he can beat the best in the world then next start struggle against average golfers. Usually takes a few starts to get going but I would be including it in any multiples for the day. I like everything but the price about BACCHANAL WOMEN who is the $4.20 favourite and has been looking good in both its trial wins and first up victory. The price is too short though in a field of this nature for her but a genuine threat.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
1.40pm – Rosehill Race 2 – 8. MORE ROCCO (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
3.00pm – Rosehill Race 4 – 6. MASCARERI (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
4.40pm – Caulfield Race 8 – 1. MILITARY ROSE (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
6.02pm – Belmont Race 5 – 7. WARATAH’S SECRET (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win) **Take fixed odds of $1.70
6.38pm – Belmont Race 6 – 8. LIQUIDATION (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
Our Best Roughies are:
3.20pm – Caulfield Race 6 – 3. LA ROCKET (Currently $51)
3.40pm – Rosehill Race 5 – 8. MINDREADER (Currently $21)
4.30pm – Eagle Farm Race 6 – 10. TELESTAH LA VISTA (Currently $41)
October 4th – Commonwealth Games – Netball
The Commonwealth Games are upon us and often there are a few bets that pop up that represent some good value in a multitude of sports. Whilst I don’t regard myself as an expert in all sports I have many contacts in various areas and I often get sent some good info about probable winners. Sometimes it does just take some form work and reading many reviews and watching TV to work it out as well.
We start with the Netball and Jamaica look far too good for local rivals Trinidad and Tobago. Whilst on the surface some might suggest that the local rival might make this close a look at past results suggest that Jamaica certainly don’t take it easy on their close cousins.
Our Bet is:
JAMAICA to beat Trinidad and Tobago by more than 26.5 points at $1.87 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)