November 20th – Railway Stakes Preview (Ascot)

We’ll start with Ascot who clearly has the better racing for the day and it begins straight up with Race 1 and hot favourite RANGER looks the one to beat. In my early form analysis I had Ranger down as a potential 5% Bet, however, as most of you know I have a limit of $1.70 for bets as once you start going below that your strike rate has to be ridiculous to stay in front. This horse only just falls below but the $1.65 on offer seems way too short for a horse that has only had 1 win from its 8 starts even though it has been against better opposition and often it has been very close to winning.

In the 2^nd race I think betting looks pretty tough as there isn’t a lot of good form to go through. Favourite PIN ROUGE looks the better of them with bottom weight VILLAGIO a close 2^nd and probably much better as an each way selection at the odds.

The 3^rd brings around the first of our bets with BROOKESMEBABY looking a good thing and at nice odds. This horse has been in great form recently and even though her last start 7^th doesn’t look very impressive she struck a ton of trouble and never really got clear in the straight.

The 3 Year olds contest the 4^th race of the day and my first thoughts lean towards CHARMOSS who had a solid first up win and looks well suited again here with a quality jockey on board. MISS TIPSY TOPSY has blown in betting which worries me as I thought this horse looked a really strong chance in this race. VERACIOUS rarely puts together a bad race and would have to be considered in any multiple betting you undertake. A tough race to find a standout winner and I could’ve easily mentioned a few others here.

The first Listed Race of the day is the Carbine Club of WA Stakes and we really start to hit the quality fields. I have always been a fan of ELLIOTTO but I just can’t back him this prep as she just hasn’t found her old zip. However, you have to be confident of the chances of favourite MABEL GRACE who was snookered last start and got trampled by a tiring runner last start. Before that she was a very strong competitor and definitely looks the one to beat.

Race 6 is the Tattersall’s Cup and favourite STREET VALUE has been strongly supported after back to back wins in its past 2 starts. The most impressive of which was the last start where it won even after being kicked mid race. MASTER SIN looks as though it could be a real blow out result for punters with the 2100m right down its alley after some strong finishes in recent starts.

We come to the feature event of the day with the Group 1 Railway Stakes and once again it is a cracking field to take part. A lot of the talk has surrounded the form of last year’s winner SNIPERS BULLET who ran a disappointing 8^th in the Emirates Stakes at Flemington last start. However, I felt that race was run strangely and I wouldn’t take too much from that race. TRUSTING is a lot shorter than I was hoping as I thought it was a contender here but since its having its first look at the track. I can’t officially back it at $6.00 but I do think the long straight will suit it. FAMOUS ROMAN had almost a year off after running average in the Railway Stakes and Kings Town last year but has returned with 2 wins and a 2^nd in his 3 starts which is hard to ignore. Having said that the bookies have left him on the outside in this strong field at $21. Favourite COLOUR CORRECT has won 2 on the trot and gives the impression that the extra 200m will be perfect for this horse who has been finishing strongly. The price is a little skinny in such a big and strong field but given an even chance it will be hard to beat. GATHERING could also be considered a chance at odds after a solid Melbourne campaign this year.

The 3 year olds get another race to themselves in the Placid Ark Stakes and I’m finding it hard to go past top weight BLACK FELIX. There is some good form around the Belmont track and a bit at Ascot but this horse has been running some great times in winning and should be in this up to its ears.

The last race of the day is tough and the only positive to take out of it is if you find the winner you should end the day in front as everything will be nicely priced. I find it hard to really nail a standout but will probably lean towards LEAD ROPE, SCHOOL RUMBLE and TRUSTEE BROWN.

A quality day of racing a surprisingly we found 3 bets at Ascot as well. That is often not the case on the big days but I feel confident about our chances there.

A number of bets out there today but I really couldn’t narrow it down anymore. I could easily have added some more but I don’t like to over expose us on any single day. A good day to be a punter though and think many of you will come out with some money today.

Our Early Mail Selections are:

3.00pm – Rosehill Race 4 – 4. TITLE (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)

3.10pm – Doomben Race 4 – 4. IMAGERY (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)

4.05pm – Ascot Race 3 – 4. BROOKESMEBABY (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)

5.25pm – Ascot Race 5 – 5. MABEL GRACE (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)

5.40pm – Rosehill Race 8 – 11. GRIFFON (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)

7.25pm – Ascot Race 8 – 1. BLACK FELIX (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

Our Best Roughies are:

3.50pm – Doomben Race 5 – 16. FELINE IRISH (Currently $61)

4.00pm – Mooney Valley Race 6 – 8. JETEVEN (Currently $12)

6.05pm – Ascot Race 6 – 9. MASTER SIN (Currently $61)

6.45pm – Ascot Race 7 – 6. FAMOUR ROMAN (Currently $21)

Horse Racing
20 November 2010 comment

November 6th – Emirates Stakes Day Preview

Our great form in the Spring Carnival continues with 2 from our 3 selections winning on Thursday including BRAZILIAN PULSE who did it the hard way winning the Oaks. A few people may have also got on TEMPLE OF BOOM and NIBLICK who were both mentioned in the early mail and went on to win.

Many tipsters are over betting by the time it comes to Emirates Stakes day and I’ve always found it a great day for betting as people start to chase money they have lost throughout the carnival. I’ve also decided to stick with the ratings format we used on Melbourne Cup day as I had a few emails saying they enjoyed it more as it involved the names of the horses. It’s a bit more work but I’m happy to listen to my subscribers anytime. If anyone ever has any input (positive or negative) I’m always willing to listen. For the managed fund customers I will be getting the October Review out shortly but as you can imagine it’s been a very busy week.

I’m not usually a fan of finding young horses during the spring carnival as I’ve rarely found any go on to greater things as much as you do in the Autumn Carnivals. Having said that I really liked the way ERAMOR hit the line in its maiden victory at Caulfield a few weeks ago. This horse could be one to watch in the 1^st race and in the coming weeks.

Skip race 2 and head to Race 3 where we have a few hot chances. For those with a bit of faith I think PACINO would be worth an each way crack. This horse is known for travelling around the place heading from Victorian to Sydney with regular monotony but I really think it is well placed here. Its last run in Sydney showed signs it is at its best and given the fact the track looks to be drying out I am expecting a strong finish here. RED COLLOSUS has been strongly supported in early betting most likely due to its strong finish during its last start against So You Think, however, I’m not convinced. ROBDON FLYER is a game competitor and although a win would be asking a lot this horse has a ton of heart and you would be crazy to leave it out of any multiples you are looking at.

In the 4^th my first glance made me want to get on TERRITORY like I have at most of its 6 career starts. Although that has been a reasonably successful venture with 2 wins and 3 more placings from its 6 starts I’ve got some concerns here. I can’t seem to work out if this horse has a favoured track and am starting to think it is a talented horse that just runs fast when it wants to. That makes him a big risk and betting around him very risky. BIGELOW is a bit shorter than I’d like it to be but I am keen on it. The trainer hopefully has worked out the horse likes to be ridden cold and given one short burst at the finish after it missed the start at Mooney Valley before flying home in the short straight. The extra 200m would have to be helpful also. From that form line you then have to like YORKSHIRE LAD who represents much better each way value and was taking ground of Bigelow in the finish.

Next up we have what I believe is not only the race of the day but the race of the Spring Carnival with the Group 1 Patinack Classic and a stellar field even if only 7 horses take part. Leading the way is the undefeated BLACK CAVIAR who has dominated every field it has competed in and although it hasn’t raced in a Group 1 race before its last start win by 5 ½ lengths over Hot Danish proves it is up to the task. It meets some extremely tough competition and I can’t agree on the early price and continuous support at the very short quote. HAY LIST is another in devastating form and has been running some really quick times. It has been freshened up for this and I think represents much better value. On face value it appears a 2 horse race but that would be crazy. This entire field is filled with stars including STAR WITNESS who won so strongly last weekend, ALL SILENT an international star who loves racing down the straight at Flemington. All that and I haven’t even got to MELITO, EAGLE FALLS or ORTENSIA.

Funnily enough the main race of the day the Emirates Stakes is a bit of a letdown and extremely hard to find a solid pick. It’s not that it is weak field but it lacks a real star like last year’s runner-up So You Think. In fact TopPunter subscribers were overjoyed with All American who we tipped to win over $40 for the win. SOUND JOURNEY ran strongly at Mooney Valley last start so would have to be considered. I am also a fan of ROTHERA who will be coming home late down the centre of the track. The big blow out could well be SNOW ALERT who is way over the odds and is right in this for sure.

In the 7^th we have the Group 2 Matriarch Stakes and the main focus for me is on the favourite KEEP THE PEACE who has come over from New Zealand and has some interesting form lines. Last start before coming over it ran a close up 3^rd with Ginga Dude running 2^nd. For those watching the races this spring Ginga dude has been really impressive in its couple of runs in Australia suggesting this form line might be handy. There isn’t a whole lot of solid form in this race so I’m not sure what we could take out of the race, however, I do think RIVER BYPASS is another who is over the odds with a light weight and some good form on the board.

The Group 3 Queens Cup is the who’s who of horses who never made it into the Melbourne Cup which makes it an interesting spectacle. Hard to really know who was unlucky in their lead up races and who just isn’t racing as well as it had hoped. With a strong finish almost overtaking Precedence in its last start you would have to think ABOVE AVERAGE is a strong contender for the race and a potential Melbourne Cup contender in the next couple of years. MOUDRE got in the wrong part of the track and cost it a chance of knocking off Maluckyday in the Lexus. A close up 2^nd to Americain as well in the Geelong Cup suggests that this horse was unlucky not to make it into the big race and should be considered a genuine threat here. That form line has to include EXCEPTIONALLY who has been finishing its races off strong and has been freshened up for this race.

In the end we found no official bets at Flemington but I think with the information above and a little study and watching of betting moves you should have a good day at the office. I have found a few other best around the country to keep us interested for the day and I also have attached a basic version of the Sydney ratings for those who really want them.

Our Early Mail Selections are:

3.27pm – Doomben Race 4 – 10. ROCK RAVE (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)

4.02pm – Randwick Race 6 – 7. LADY’S ANGEL (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

5.50pm – Ascot Race 4 – 13. WESTERN JEWEL (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

7.05pm – Ascot Race 6 – 8. FOR YOUR EYES ONLY (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)

Our Best Roughies are:

2.55pm – Flemington Race 6 – 15. SNOW ALERT (Currently $21)

3.40pm – Flemington Race 7 – 16. RIVER BYPASS (Currently $21)

Horse Racing
6 November 2010 comment

November 3rd – Oaks Day Preview

Hopefully you are all walking around with fuller wallets after the Melbourne Cup. In our 5 selections we gave out as the best chances in the cup we finished with 1^st (Americain), 2^nd (Maluckyday) and 4^th (Zipping). I know many of you chucked the hot favourite So You Think in first fours to collect the whopping $6000 payout. It really was a huge payout considering the triffecta only paid $200. Just on the cup I noticed a funny trend when going over the race and also having an early look at the likely Emirates day fields. So You Think has only lost 4 races in its career and 3 of its more major ones have come at the hands of Americain (Melbourne Cup), All American (Emirates Stakes 2009) and Starspangledbanner (Caulfield Guineas 2009). Guess all you had to do is have an American reference in your name to topple the champ. As for the future I know I won’t be alone in declaring Maluckyday a future winner of the cup. It’s still only very young in its racing career and will get better. If I got offered $15-$20 about it winning the 2011 Melbourne Cup right now I would eat it up.

We were right to stay away from the Early Mail with the tracks at most venues playing funny games and it really wasn’t punter friendly. It does worry me a bit before looking at the form for tomorrow but Oaks Day and Emirates Day (Saturday) have always been great punting days for me and I really like the form lines of a few horses going into tomorrow.

We start the day off with a roughie in TEXAN WARNEY who has come across from South Australia for a dab at the spring racing. This horse isn’t blessed with a ton of ability but it does have ticker, which I regard highly. It also has a good finishing burst and really winds up on the line so the long Flemington straight should suit. I know those of you who have been following the Best Roughies have been going along nicely with some high priced place getters and were blessed with the big cash on Saturday when Ashma’s Gold got up in the last in Brisbane at $31. I almost backed it up with ZINGALING in the next as a roughie tip but I think I am just getting carried away. This horse hasn’t run down the straight at Flemington, which can be a concern, but I like its form lines coming into this and if it settles well it could be right in the finish.  In the 3^rd we had put a mention on QUEEN’S FASHION as a market watch roughie and it disappointed when the jockey explained the horse had become fractious in the gates trying to charge through them before missing the start. It appears to have some ability and if it gets clear running in the straight it could be one to get on in-running on Betfair.

The roughies continue to impress as I scatter through form lines as race 4 appears to be another lottery. Some interesting runners to note here. OFFSHORE SHAM was tipped by us to win its Hawkesbury maiden in impressive fashion and it hasn’t run since (I like this horse a lot!). DUTCHY’S LASS was another selection for us last start and it ran a creditable 4^th place and is tasty odds here. Sydney siders CHANCE BYE and PARRIWI both seem way over the odds although both are unknowns on the wet track.

In the 5^th ZAIRA has been backed from $7 into $3.20 suggesting there are a number who like its chances tomorrow. I really like the look of another roughie in RESOLVERE who won a really tough race last start it had in the wet at Bendigo. If the track gets sloppy it could be a real blow out chance.

BRAZILIAN PULSE is my tip for the Oaks after a really tough win on Derby Day. Whilst some concerns would have to be about it backing up a week later it was so strong in victory and we had tipped it the start before when it looked the goods running 3^rd. Definitely a big chance here.

ZUBBAYA hopefully gives us a running double after being super impressive in its last start win at Mooney Valley. Although the Flemington track is far different to that at Mooney Valley you had to be impressed with the way it settled and then showed a real turn of foot in the final 600m destroying a strong field.

Tough race the 8^th with a strong field heading down the straight. Keen to see how TEMPLE OF BOOM handles it as I have a strong opinion of the Queenslander. Also the new kid on the block VAREENA MISS has a crack against the big boys and this is a much tougher test than it faced the other day. I think it is way under the odds but again I have a high opinion and think it could well surprise.

I do like the favourite NIBLICK in the last but couldn’t possibly take the $3.50 on offer for a horse that is untried on wet ground. If it handles it, it wins though.

Had a quick scan through the rest of the tracks but nothing really grabbed my attention accept KANZAN in the 6^th at Hawkesbury who was incredibly unlucky last start and still showed great strength. I think it is in this up to its eyeballs and should be winning tomorrow.

Our Early Mail Selections are:

2.55pm – Flemington Race 6 – 2. BRAZILIAN PULSE (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)

3.40pm – Flemington Race 7 – 2. ZUBBAYA (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)

4.03pm – Hawkesbury Race 6 – 3. KANZAN (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)

Our Best Roughies are:

11.10am – Flemington Race 1 – 1. TEXAN WARNEY (Currently $15)

2.05pm – Flemington Race 5 – 13. RESOLVERE (Currently $26)

Horse Racing
3 November 2010 comment

November 1st – Melbourne Cup Preview

Here we come to the biggest race day in Australia for the 150^th running of the Melbourne Cup and weather unfortunately appears to be playing a huge part and making form reading very difficult. The best thing to do on a day like this is enjoy the spectacle for what it is and don’t get carried away trying to back too many horses. Keep your stakes small and my pick is usually to have a go at the multiple bets as there are large pools and a good chance to snag something huge without needing to go too deep.

Last year our ratings service picked the Big 6 on Melbourne Cup day netting a whopping $830,000 dividend to those who got on the bandwagon. If you are interested in the ratings they are sent out to all those who am members or have signed up for the free month’s trial.

The amazing thing about tomorrow is all the promotions being thrown around by the bookmakers and it looks like a great time to get involved. Some are only for new subscribers but others are open to all subscribers. I will try and list them all below with links so you can get on board. Many are free money, risk free bets where if you lose they refund your money.

People without an account

Centrebet – $150 Free  (Place any bet you like before November 7^th and if it doesn’t win they’ll refund your bet up to $150)

Luxbet – $100 Free (Open an account and deposit $25 and receive $100 Free)

Existing customers or people without an account

IasBet – $100 Free (Place a bet on any of the first 4 races at Flemington on Cup Day and if it loses they will refund your money up to $100)

SportBet – 1. 4^th Place Payout (Place any bet tonight before midnight and if your horse runs 4^th they will still pay the place dividend).

2. If you place a bet on the cup any time during the day and you run 2^nd to So You Think your money is refunded

3. If  you place a quaddie and get 3 legs up but lose the 4^th leg by running 2^nd you’ll get your cash back.

A great time to get involved even if you are only a once a year punter.

For those wanting tips in the first 4 races I will give my selections below, however, they are very tough races and can be some of toughest betting all year.

Race 1 – 3. CHINCILLA

Race 2 – 2. VINTEDGE

Race 3 – 7. I’M IMPOSING

Race 4 – 8. FLYING TESSIE

For the Melbourne Cup I think regardless of the track condition it will be run at a cracking pace. I think this is the strongest, most even field I have ever seen and it is going to take a true 2 miler to win. I have jumped from either side of the fence on SO YOU THINK and feel a bit disappointed that its fate may be sealed in what happens tomorrow. The horse has done remarkably well in the past 13 months with 2 Cox Plate victories a bunch more Group 1’s and looks unbeatable in anything it does. However, I think the Mackinnon win on the weekend was by far its best victory as it settled well and wasn’t forced to set the pace which will be the case tomorrow. However, although it pulled away from everything and left some big cup hopes in its wake it was its slowest last sectional and I do have to question its ability to run the full 3200m if they go out hard.

I like the following horses and why.

1.       16 – PROFOUND BEAUTY – After finishing 5^th in its Melbourne Cup debut 2 years ago it has gone from strength to strength in the best distance races in Europe proving itself as a real contender. I can’t believe this horse has been forgotten by all the experts, although it will want the track to dry out just a touch. Whilst it isn’t hopeless in the wet it is definitely better on a dead track where it is undefeated in all 4 starts on that type of surface. Has carried over 60kg in its last 4 starts so the drop in weight to 54kg will be welcome relief.

2.       15 – MONACO CONSUL – Was touted as a potential Melbourne Cup winner after winning the 2009 Victoria Derby in impressive fashion. Whilst it hasn’t set the house on fire since then it has put together some strong performances and you would have to think the extra distance will suit it to a tee. Would be praying the rain stays around as its best results have come on the rain affected going.

3.       4 – ZIPPING – This 9yr old gelding seems to be getting better with age and I believe it has its best chance to win the cup this year. Another horse that has proven it can run the distance with 2 4^th placings in the Melbourne Cup in 2007 and 2008. It has been racing strongly in 2010 with wins in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) and Australia Cup (2000m). It was very impressive when running 2^nd to So You Think in the Cox Plate(2040m) when it appeared to be taking ground off it at the finish after being beaten for speed at the turn. Has won on all surfaces but would probably be hoping for a dead track.

4.       8 – AMERICAIN – I wasn’t that impressed with his Geelong Cup victory last start, even though I really like the race as a form guide. The main reason was I thought Moudre looked the better horse and it hasn’t really fired since and is very disappointing in missing the field this year. Having said that the lead in form is very impressive and this horse will be loving the step up to 3200m. Definitely won’t be wanting any more rain and the drier the track the better. If it rains more and the track is slow or worse I wouldn’t touch him.

5.       24 – MALUCKYDAY – Was the most impressive winner on  Saturday coming through the Lexus in great style proving he is born to stay. I did mention to TopPunter subscribers that it was worth backing him prior to that race and after winning it dropped from $60 to $8.50. The connections had a really tough decision to make with this horse who I believe is a genuine Melbourne Cup threat for the next few years but they do put it at risk by taking on the challenge so early in its racing career. With only 51kg on its back its hard to see this horse not figuring high up in the placings and the punters agree with it firming in early betting to $7.50 and 2^nd favouritism. Hard to tell its wet track for with only 1 start on the slow going for a 3^rd in the Tulloch Stakes (2000m) last year so you are backing it with blind faith if the weather comes in.

I am fairly confident we have the winner in amongst these horses and it will be worth chucking in a few multiples around them all. I have a sneaky suspicion if the weather does come in it could see an international clean sweep as well.

Horse Racing
1 November 2010 comment