January 25th – Australia Day Racing Preview
Always a good day for punting on Australia Day and if you’re not at the beach I recommend getting somewhere where you can place a few bets as we’ve started having a few weeks of nice tracks and the results are starting to become more consistent. There are a few showers around the country but I don’t think they will affect things too much.
Caulfield is our feature meeting and it begins with a tricky race for the 3yo Fillies. STORM BURST has a narrow edge for me but it’s a hard race to line up with some inconsistent runners in the field. MISS ELVIE has had some support in the early betting after a great run behind the impressive Warm Love, however, its performances before that weren’t overly impressive. MINNIE MAH has been very solid in its 4 race career against average opposition. Did run some solid time last start over the 1200m which caught my eye.
LORD PINDARI takes favouritism in the 2nd and I think it’s a good Lay option on Betfair as I think there are some stronger chances in the field. SPINNEY was tipped by us to run strong last start and I was disappointed with its 3rd place. Goes up a couple of kg’s here and will be finding it tough down the short straight. MY BENTLEY has a much better 2nd up record so you could forgive his first up ordinary run if you’re a fan of the horse. GOLDEN ARCHER looks the dominant force in the 3rd race on the back of 2 wins from 2 starts. Ran a swift 33.77 sec 600m last start easing up at the post which suggests it has some ability. Likes to be on the pace so the Caulfield track will suit as well.
The fillies are in action again in the 4th for the Blue Diamond preview and there is talent all over the field. SPECTROLITE is at huge odds considering its first up win betting the very talented Military Grace. It then followed that up with a 5th ,only beaten a length, when it found a lot of trouble the entire race. Favourite ONE LAST DANCE showed those who predicted her to be a superstar that they were on the right track with an impressive first start victory at Mooney Valley.
In the 5th the boys get a chance to strut their stuff in the Zeditave Stakes and ÉCLAIR MYSTIC assuming the favouritism. Whilst I think Éclair has ability it’s hard to ignore ANACHEEVA’s form coming into this race with a Group 1 win and 2 strong victories over the super talented Toorak Toff (Both at Caulfield). RUN FOR LEVI will no doubt give them something to chase at massive odds and will be suited by the tight Caulfield track. I would also have to include ROAD TRAIN in the chances with a strong run against Warm Love last start in fast time. The 6th race is a bit of a letdown with some ordinary form surrounding it. No selections here.
We put TopPunter followers onto VAREENA MISS as it made the grade from Provincials to Metropolitan races but I find it hard to back it at $2.00 tomorrow. It is obviously training the house down as it hasn’t had a start since winning for us back during the Spring Carnival in October last year. Makes it hard to go anything else though which such confidence and support surrounding the horse, maybe PERFECT HOSTESS represents better value though. In the last ACORNS takes favouritism on the back of its last start win a fortnight ago when it knocked off our selection HAPPY GLEN (Who also races here). It’s form prior to that wasn’t flash, however, it does race well fresh. Happy Glen does find it 2 kg’s better, however, it has to make up 3 lengths. QUICK PEEK I think represents a much better option and may be a tough one for them to run down in the straight as it is sure to take a forward position. KENNY KID is also drawn well and could surprise at odds.
We’ve found a couple of nice bets at Warrick Farm in BRING YOUR ALIBI in the 4th and OUR BOY LUKAS in the 5th, however, the main race of the day there is the Australia Day Cup (6th Race). AGENT BAUER rightly assumes favouritism on the back of some strong wins. Not rated by many tipsters but this horse just finds a way to win. Has a great temperament and settles well so is almost certain to be in the finish. TIDE could be a chance at double figure odds.
Unfortunately that’s the best I can offer up now as there are no odds around for the other venues around Australia making early bets difficult. I will try and find some time to put a Late Mail email together but I doubt it will come about as I will be enjoying the day. Still got 3 good bets for us so no real concern.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
2.12pm – Caulfield Race 3 – 2. GOLDEN ARCHER (5% Win)
2.30pm – Warrick Farm Race 4 – 4. BRING YOUR ALIBI (5% Win)
3.06pm – Warrick Farm Race 5 – 2. OUR BOY LUKAS (2% Win)
**For information on the % Betting System please email brad@toppunter.net
Our Best Roughies are:
3.42pm – Warrick Farm Race 6 – 10. TIDE (Currently $18)
5.22pm – Caulfield Race 8 – 11. KENNY KID (Currently $31)
January 25th – JJJ Hottest 100
With betting available on so many things these days many people lime to receive odds and tips on almost everything. Those who are entering tipping comps for tomorrows big event would be wise to stick close to the odds as they haven’t been too far wrong in recent years. Here are my Top 10 selections for this year. Best odds available are as always Betfair and also Sportingbet if you’d like to part with your cash.
1. F You! – Cee Lo Green
2. Barbara Streisand – Duck Sauce
3. Teenage Crime – Adrian Lux
4. Clap Your Hands – Sia
5. Rock It – Little Red
6. Addicted – Bliss N Esso
7. Big Jet Plane – Angus and Julia Stone
8. Plans – Birds of Tokyo
9. We No Speak No Americano – Yolando Be Cool & D Cup
10. Jacksons Last Stand – Ou Est Le Swimming Pool
January 25th – Australian Open
The good form continues on the back of the pocket rocket Na Li winning comfortably again. Our long shot pick Schiavone almost pulled off a miracle against world number 1 Wozniacki , taking the first set before going down in 3.
In the men’s Federer looked very strong in sweeping aside our men’s long shot in Wawrinka (Although we cleaned up in the Lay Betting options with him) and still looks the best chance at defending his title again. Nadal looked much better in his match with no signs of the virus that has plagued his preparations so far. His next match could turn into a bit of a grind against Ferrer and will be a better indication of his fitness / health levels.
To the next wave of matches and we have already covered the Djokovic vs Berdych event tonight. The games tomorrow see the giant killer DOLGOPOLOV ($7.00) taking on ANDY MURRAY ($1.10) who has snuck under the radar this year. With many of the big seeds still in the tournament Murray has managed to escape the spotlight and has to be considered a genuine threat. An immense talent who can match it with the big guns on his day. NADAL ($1.10) is a similar strong favourite against FERRER ($7.00). Although I think this match will be slightly tougher I can’t really support an upset here.
To the women and CLIJSTERS ($1.11) goes out a strong favourite again against RADWANSKA ($6.50) and looks on track to head to the semi finals to take on either KVITOVA ($2.65) or ZVONAREVA ($1.48). I think the Kvitova vs Zvonareva looks to be a cracker and it’s the only match tomorrow where I could warrant an upset result. A though one to call though and I’m not keen to spend our money there even though Kvitova has been good to us so far this year.
Our Selections are:
We’ll leave tomorrow alone with it looking like a favourites kind of day.
January 24th – Australian Open Day 9
A great day for us in Round 4 with wins to Schiavone, Kvitova and our long shot for the tournament Wawrinka destroying Roddick. Wawrinka has moved in dramatically since we recommended backing him and is a perfect option to Lay Bet them with Betfair. Wawrinka has moved in from $370 to $44.
WAWRINKA ($4.40) now faces fellow countryman FEDERER ($1.21) and although a big outsider I wouldn’t count out his chances of causing an upset. These 2 have played together numerous times and know each other’s game well. Federer is definitely a class above and I am still confident the hot favourite to win the title, however, this could be a tough hurdle should Wawrinka get off to a start.
In the other Quarter Final in the bottom half of the draw sees DJOKOVIC ($1.32) taking on BERDYCH ($3.40) and this could be a real test for the Serbian. If this match was during the daytime I would’ve predicted an upset here with the question mark on Djokovic’s abilities in the heat. However, he has scored the night session and is in good form so we’ll leave that match alone.
For the Women’s draw we see WOZNIACKI ($1.11) taking on SCHIAVONE ($6.60) and I am a little surprised at the odds. I think Wozniacki should win this, especially after Schiavone’s marathon match yesterday, but I think the odds are a little lopsided. Could be worth doing some multi’s with the upset in the mix to hope for a big payout.
For the 2nd match listed we have the powerful NA LI ($1.43) the dominate favourite over the now famous dancer PETKOVIC ($2.82) who has been making her name on YouTube with her little jig after each win. This match could be a real walkover for Li who is in great form.
Our Selections are:
NA LI to beat Petkovic in the Quarter Finals at $1.43 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
January 23rd – English Premier League
The Premier League has hit some shaky ground in recent times and betting has been very grey to say the least. We are lucky to have stayed away and as always only dip our toe in the water when the bets are right for us. With CHELSEA hitting some shaky ground in recent times they have finally blown out to some odds that make it worthwhile getting on board. They take on BOLTON, who are having a good year but are also in a poor streak at the moment including a very poor effort losing 2-0 to Stoke last start. I think the $1.57 odds on offer for the game on Monday night are a dream.
Our Selections are:
CHELSEA to beat Bolton at $1.57 (Sports Managed Fund 15% Bet)
January 23rd – Australian Open 4th Round
We’re starting to reach the business end of the tournament and there are still heaps of big names left contesting the title. In the men’s side of the draw there have been a few nervous moments for the heavyweights ROGER FEDERER and RAFAEL NADAL in the first couple of rounds. However, class has prevailed and they have come through the other side. That just makes me more confident of them going all the way and contesting the final next weekend. Our roughie pick STANISLAS WAWRINKA is playing really strongly and has shortened to $100 (In from $370). That means you could easily lay off (For more details on how to do this, email me) now and still have a good kitty left over if he progresses further in the tournament. He does now face ANDY RODDICK followed most likely by Federer so he is going to do it tough now.
As predicted JUSTINE HENIN struggled with conditioning and was bundled out early in the tournament. KIM CLIJSTERS looks like she is playing solid enough tennis and deserves to be the favourite for the tournament. I’m still not convinced on CAROLINE WOZNIACKI to go all the way even though she is the Number 1 player in the world. The bottom half of the draw does look more inviting but I am going to jump on FRANCESCA SCHIAVONE at the huge odds of $100. Schiavone takes on the old hard head Kuznetsova in her next meeting and if she gets past her she gets a chance to take on Wozniacki.
To the 4th round bets and we have a really interesting situation in the NA LI vs VICTORIA AZARENKA match. On SportsBet Li is the dominate favourite at $1.83 against $1.97 whereas on Betfair Li is the outsider $2.04 to Azarenka’s $1.94. Hard to know why there is such a difference and if you had enough coin you could actually back Azarenka on SportsBet and Lay her on betfair and be guaranteed to make 1.5% on your money no matter the result. I like Li personally but it does seem a bit odd so I’ll let it go.
Our Selections are:
FRANCESCA SCHIAVONE to beat Svetlana Kuznetsova in the 4th round at $3.30 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
PETRA KVITOVA to beat Flavia Pennetta in the 4th round at $1.57 Sports Managed Fund 15% Bet)
January 16th – Australian Open Preview and 1st Round picks
The Australian Open Tennis Grand Slam kicks off tomorrow and as always we will be right in the action with a number of bets during each round. Sometimes the bet’s will come in late so I apologise if anyone misses the kick, however, those in the Sports Managed Fund will as always have their bets placed well before kickoff.
In the Men’s side of the draw I think the tournament is set up for ROGER FEDERER ($2.80) to take yet another Australian Open title. In previous years RAFAEL NADAL ($2.80) has had his measure but a virus the week before the big event would have to hamper his chances of becoming the first player in over 40 years to hold all 4 titles at once. Nadal is a supremely fit person but of all the tournaments the Australian Open can be the toughest on the tour with temperatures on court soaring in the summer heat. Conditions at the moment may not be as bad as they have been in the past but if the sun decides to come out the humidity will be at its worst and fatigue will become a huge factor. A player who has done well in the Aussie Open in the past but struggles when the heat kicks in is NOVAC DJOKOVIC ($9.50) who has been in good form of late. I would suggest staying away from him till you get a real stinker of a day and crunching his opponent. Maybe even watch how he is reacting on court as he usually gives some telltale signs that he is struggling with the cooling ice necklace and pouring water over himself. STANISLAS WAWRINKA ($370) has been in great form and could be a little smokie to get deep in the tournament, however, he would face Federer if he got to Round 4. ERNESTS GULBIS ($440) is another in solid form and has got the advantage of being in the opposite half to Federer. A huge hitter of the ball and although I rate his first round opponent in BENJAMIN BECKER, he is meeting him when Becker is out of form and could get deep into the tournament.
**Prices for Becker and Wawrinka were courtesy of Betfair who are a much better option for backing roughies as you have the opportunity to “Lay” them later in the tournament. For more information on how to do this or how to join Betfair please don’t hesitate to drop me a line. The odds for Sportsbet were much lower at $126 for both players.
The Women’s side of the draw is a much tougher prospect with a number of the women in scratchy or nonexistent form coming into the tournament. Much of the pressure will be on “Aussie” KIM CLIJSTERS ($3.25) who looked in good form before being pumped by little known NA LI ($23) in the final of the Medibank International putting a few question marks up there. A 1st round match against the classy DINARA SAFINA ($101) is a good way to find out how she is hitting them. Although Safina is in horrible form she is a danger on her day when her head is right. JUSTINE HENIN ($5.50) is second favourite but you’d have to question the amount of tennis she has been able to play in recent times. Played 4 strong matches in the Hopman cup, however, that was her first tennis since a 6 month layoff. I’m not convinced Number 1 CAROLINE WOZNIACKI ($9.00) is the best female tennis player in the draw and even though the $9.00 would be tempting to many I will be staying away from that one. MARION BARTOLI ($100) is my smokie for the women’s side of the draw. A hard hitting player who likes the fast surface and could well go deep in the tournament, especially if a few of the big guns crash.
Our Selections are:
ROGER FEDERER to win the Australian Open Title at $2.80 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
TIMEA BACSINSZKY to beat Monica Niculescu in the 1st round at $1.67 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
DANIELA HANTUCHOVA to beat Regina Kulikova in the 1st Round at $1.53 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
FABIO FOGNINI to beat Kei Nishkori in the 1st round at $2.75 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)