February 16th – PGA Tour (Northern Trust Open)

Our great golf form continued again last weekend when our 10% bet (Alvaro Quiros) not only one his match defeating the world Number 1 Lee Westwood but went on to win the whole tournament. These golf bets have been the stable force of the Sports Managed Fund for the past couple of years and 2011 appears to be no exception.

The PGA Tour is a much better event this weekend although many of the top players are having a week off to prepare for the World Matchplay Championship. The PGA Tour heads to California for the Northern Trust Open and it is quite tough to pick a winner even though there are a number of players with reason to raise their hand in the air when asked if they have a genuine chance. The course plays pretty even but has one of the best start and finishes of any track. The first hole is an elevated tee shot to a short Par 5 that if you don’t at least birdie you have dropped a shot on the field to a final hole that has a blind tee shot followed by a huge 2^nd shot to a very small green. A very tough finish and it could be one for the layers if you question the mental capacity of a player coming down the 18^th on Sunday with only a 1 shot lead.

I’m leaning (And only just) towards LUKE DONALD ($21.00) who is playing his first event in 2011 and no doubt picked this venue as he has a fond history here. Although he is yet to raise the winners jug he was runner-up here last year and has posted a Top 6 finish the past 3 years. You can add to that a great finish to 2010 with 5 Top 10’s from his last 5 events suggesting he is very comfortable with his swing at the moment. I’m going to put DUSTIN JOHNSON ($21.00) out there again as I really feel he has tremendous ability and can hit the ball so far that he takes the danger out of so many courses. Just needs to string 4 rounds together without getting the willy jimmy’s and he’ll dominate a field. MATT KUCHER ($23.00) has been incredibly consistent again this year proving 2011 wasn’t a fluke and therefore has to be considered a strong hope of finishing high on the table. BUBBA WATSON ($41.00) has concentrated much of his time on good iron player and has dramatically moved up the leaderboard on greens in regulation showing he’s not just a hit and hope player. Still needs some work around the greens but if the expected rain turns up the greens will have very little bite and might give him a good hope.

Our Selections are:

JB HOMLES to beat Paul Casey in the Northern Trust Open at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

GEOFF OGILVY to beat Steve Marino in the Northern Trust Open at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

LUKE DONALD to finish in the Top 10 in the Northern Trust Open at $3.00 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

Golf
16 February 2011 comment

February 12th – Horse Racing

Caulfield is well and truly the feature meeting with a number of Group races along with the feature race, the Group 1 CF ORR Stakes which hosts a really strong field. If I had to pick a winner for the 1^st race a week ago I would’ve pencilled in APENNINE as I was really keen on her prior to last Friday nights win at the Valley. Whilst she did go on and win I thought she looked a little weak and I question her ability when the going gets really tough and the competition is strong. GAIL is another who has progressed through the provincials and forced her way to a metro win last start. A big step up in distance is her next challenge to overcome but the signs appear to be in her favour. COMOCEAN looks to have plenty of staying ability, however, she has layed in her last 2 starts suggesting she is in need of a spell.

Race 2 is the Group 3 Carlyon Cup and a very wide open field. LARRYS NEVER LATE only had 1 start last prep for a win and has got a very impressive 4 wins and one place from 5 starts. MY BENTLEY is worth a look at double figure odds. I thought the run last start suggested he is ready to produce his best given the right conditions. ITS PRINCE will appreciate drawing a good barrier and should run a strong race as well. Hard to really get too confident about anything here though.

The racing continues to get stronger with the Group 2 D’Urban Stakes next on the card for the 3 yr olds. It’s hard to argue with the form of ÉCLAIR MYSTIC who has had 6 wins and 2 placings from its 8 career starts. Showed some real promise last year and will be interesting to see if it can keep up with that form this year. UNDER THE EIFFEL is an extremely impressive horse that will no doubt go a long way. He has shown a tremendous turn of foot in all of his 4 career starts even when racing greenly early on. Opened up a ridiculous price in early betting but is getting out to a backable price now.

The 4^th and 5^th races are part of the Group 3 Blue Diamond Prelude. The 4^th race is for the boys and SEPOY goes out an extremely short favourite on the back of 2 very impressive wins in its 2 career starts but none more than its last start win at this track. Hard to see it getting beat but $1.60 about a 3 yr old with little race experience is too much for me. ONE LAST DANCE is the favourite for the girls after also securing 2 wins from as many starts but not quite in as dominate fashion as Sepoy. SPECTROLITE has shown a real turn of foot when given daylight but you’d have to think that this is too short for her especially at Caulfield with no straight to work with. GLISSADE is the big hope from NSW and there are a lot of question marks after going down as a $1.35 favourite last start. I questioned its ability to win last start and although it gets some weight relief here it didn’t really show much speed just fighting qualities (Maybe when it gets over further). HOLDONTOYAHORSES is another who has to be respected on early form with 2 solid wins. Times are good enough to go against this field, although it has had 2 easy runs and hasn’t struck any trouble so far. HELPING HAND seems way over the odds after racing greenly but in quick time last start for an all the way win. She will have to work hard to get across but that doesn’t seem to faze this horse and could be a real blow out result.

In the 6^th a number of the good chances are drawn wide meaning this race will be more down to luck than good racing. Think we’ll leave that alone. To the Group 1 C.F. Orr Stakes and favourite TYPHOON TRACY will have as many backers as nay sayers here after a disappointing return to the track last start at Mooney Valley. This horse seems to have lost its turn of foot that made it one of the best 3 year olds in the country a few years ago. I thought its last campaign was average at best. The big test for many of these runners will be the weight they have to carry with the lightweight at 57kgs. MOUDRE is an interesting runner and could be an early season threat here. A great first up record and the 2 wins from 3 starts at the distance attracts the eye. This horse is my tip for the 2011 Melbourne Cup and this could be the start of a great year for the horse and its owners. HEART OF DREAMS gets its chance to grab some early season glory before the big boys all warm up and should be there abouts tomorrow.

CATAPULTED always gets ready early in its preparation and with the strong support in early betting you’d have to think it’s not going to be far off here. REWARD FOR EFFORT is another who comes together quickly and would have appreciated drawing a little closer to the rails and the tricky Caulfield track. If the rain keeps falling I’d have to consider WINTER KING as a really strong contender. This horse has a huge heart and loves getting in a battle down the line. FASTER SON is friendless in betting which is hard to see why with 6 wins from 7 starts. It hasn’t raced huge opposition but it has toyed with all of them making them look second rate. With a great barrier draw ACORNS should get a dream run and has some of the fastest sectionals of anyone so be prepared for a battle if he sees daylight in the straight.

In the last BEADED has been very strongly supported despite drawing the widest of all runners. As the rain falls the support gets stronger for this horse who will love a bit of mud around. Meanwhile early favourite VAREENA MISS is blowing in the betting but it’s hard to justify why. Although racing a little greenly last start this horse has still shown great ability and will win races greater than this in the future. SIMPLY PUT could be a contender for those who like sticking with a roughie in the last race. I’m a bit surprised to see the difference in price between Simply Put and MID SUMMER MUSIC who assumes 3^rd favouritism. I think it has a strong chance but Simply Put beat her last start and therefore deserves to be a lot shorter.

At Randwick there are some strong Group races to contend with as well. PINWHEEL looks a strong chances in the Group 3 Southern Cross Stakes(4^th Race). He’s heavily weighted which takes my percentage of confidence down just a smidgen but the form line reads really well. Maybe CARDINAL VIRTUE at decent odds. The Group 2 Breeders Classic is next in line and MORE JOYOUS is an easy selection as the favourite and the bookies are taking no chances with her price. It’s really hard to recommend anything else in that race.

To the 6^th and we have another Group 2 race in the form of the Light fingers Stakes and MORE STRAWBERRIES has been heavily backed after 2 strong trial wins last month. I like the horse but it’s not known to get to its best this fast so I’d have to watch tomorrow. PARABLES looks a much better prospect at the price tomorrow but will be damaged slightly by the wide barrier draw. RED TRACER turned its unbeaten streak at Randwick to 2 last start with a dominate win against the fillies. I think this race is a much stronger field but I expect her to be right in the finish again.

The strong racing continues in the 7^th race with the Group 2 Sovereign Stakes and I think with favourite PRESSDAY drawing wide this event is wide open. I had tagged Pressday as a possible bet for us till the wide draw but I just don’t have the confidence it will find a good spot in travelling. Those betting with Betfair should get on board if it finds cover without trouble. ILOVETHISCITY will appreciate being back on the NSW way of going and I’d expect a much improved performance.

Our Early Mail Selections are:

2.00pm – Caulfield Race 3 – 7. UNDER THE EIFFEL (Managed Fund 3% Win)

2.53pm – Randwick Race 4 – 1. PINWHEEL (Managed Fund 2% Win)

3.20pm – Morphettville Race 5 – 1. CANDLE (Managed Fund 5% Win)

3.40pm – Eagle Farm Race 5 – 4. CAVALIERED (Managed Fund 2% Win)

5.40pm – Eagle Farm Race 8 – 11. GO FOREST GO (Managed Fund 1%ew)

Our Best Roughies are:

3.10pm – Caulfield Race 5 – 7. HELPING HAND (Currently $31)

5.05pm – Ascot Race 3 – 8. MR NICOFFSKI (Currently $26)

5.45pm – Ascot Race 4 – 15. RANCHERS BOY (Currently $61)

Horse Racing
12 February 2011 comment [1]

February 9th – European Tour Preview (Dubai Desert Classic)

A great result for us last weekend with the return to golf previews yielding 4 winning bets from the 5 mentioned. Golf has been the rock of the Sports Managed Fund and it looks like 2011 will be no difference.

This week we preview the European Tour which hosts the top players in the world for the Dubai Desert Classic. This tournament has been won by many of the greats since its introduction in 1989. TopPunter favourite MARTIN KAYMER ($6.00) assumes the favouritism in a red hot field and with his form in the desert so strong it’s easy to see why. Recently promoted to Number 2 in the world the German has gone from strength to strength since we spotted him 3 years ago and seems unflappable in all condition. However, he really does produce his best when playing in the dry, hot conditions we expect in Dubai. You can add a 4^th, 4^th and 2^nd place finish in his last 3 attempts at this title. A win can’t be too far away.

TIGER WOODS ($7.00) takes on 2^nd place in the betting and I am starting to see the Tiger of old come into his game. I think it is very doubtful we will ever see the dominating he produced early in his career mostly due to the fact the “fear” element has been taken out of the equation with most golfers seeing a vulnerable side to him. However, class will prevail and he will win big tournaments again and I would be surprised to see him not win a major this year.

MIGUEL ANGEL JIMENEZ ($34.00) has to be considered again after another strong performance last start. He is also a golfer who suits this course which rewards those willing to take a few risks from time to time. RORY McILROY ($7.00) is paying way too short to be considered worth a bet because of his inconsistent performances. However, he does have a game that suits this track and is in the best form I have seen in his career, in fact in most people’s careers. His past 5 starts he has finished 12^th, 5^th, 6^th, 5^th and 2^nd last start in Abu Dhabi. That’s impressive in anyone’s books. Hard to see a winner not coming from the big boys with even ALAVARO QUIROS ($17.00) kept fairly safe on the back of some very consistent performances recently (3 Top 10’s in 4 starts).

A great event and certainly one to watch.

Our Selections are:

ALAVARO QUIROS to beat Lee Westwood in the overall at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

MATTEO MANNASERO to beat Seung-Yul Noh in the overall at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

Golf
9 February 2011 comment

February 2nd – European and PGA Tour Golf

The European and PGA Tours are back in full swing and we are ready to get involved in what has been a very successful practice for TopPunter subscribers. We’ll start with our bread and butter with the European Tour which heads to Qatar for the Qatar Masters. There are a few golfers who have always performed well in the warm conditions that are expected from these countries and although not at the hottest time of year the expected strong winds will make playing conditions very tough.

One player in particular excels in these conditions and it’s no surprise to see the TopPunter favourite MARTIN KAYMER ($7.50) go out a very short priced favourite on SportsBet. In superb form coming off a dominant 8 shot win last start in Abu Dhabi. He is joined by current World Number 1 golfer LEE WESTWOOD ($10.00) who is 2^nd in betting but looked average at best in Abu Dhabi and I really can’t see things changing too much here, even though he has had a couple of top ten finishes here. ROBERT KARLSSON ($17.50) comes high into consideration on the back of a win 2 starts back and a 5^th place finish last start in Bahrain. He is the defending champion here and can also boast another couple of Top 20 finishes here in past years. My next review is on RICARDO GONZALEZ ($81.00) who is at huge odds considering his form and past experience at the tournament in the past 7 years (2 top 10’s and 2 top 20’s since 2002). An 8^th in Abu Dhabi followed by a 20^th in Bahrain suggests he is hitting the ball well and way over the odds. JOHAN EDFORS ($67.00) played extremely well last week in Bahrain and I thought was unlucky not to finish higher than 6^th place. He has form here so a high finish wouldn’t surprise.

The PGA Tour also heads to the desert in Arizona for the Phoenix Open at the picturesque TPC Scottsdale. Traditionally known for the big hitters and I can’t see it being any different this week. For that reason I put DUSTIN JOHNSON ($12.00) being a big hitter in great form with a couple of Top 10 finishes in his 2 starts this year. I am still a little wary of him after his crumbles last year but he has incredible talent and looks set to have a good year. Young gun RICKY FOWLER ($26.00) played brilliantly here last year to fall down narrowly on the final day. Not in super form last week but will appreciate this layout much more. There are a bunch of other chances, too many to mention, but I’ll stick in my top roughie with ANDREAS ROMERO ($126) at a monster price after not impressing last week. Can knock the cover off the ball when right and did shot 4 low rounds for a top 20 finish last year.

Our Selections are:

RICARDO GONZALEZ to finish in the Top 25 in the Qatar Masters at $3.25 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

JOHAN EDFORS to finish in the Top 25 in the Qatar Masters at $3.25 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

MARTIN KAYMER to beat Lee Westwood head to head in the Qatar Masters at $1.83 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

RICKY FOWLER to beat Hunter Mahan head to head in the Phoenix Open at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

MARK LEISHMAN to beat Camillo Villegas head to head in Phoenix Open at $1.95 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

Golf
2 February 2011 comment