March 23rd – PGA and European Tour Review

The European Tour kicks us off this week with the Open de Andalucía de Golf in Spain. It’s no surprise to see ALAVARO QUIROS ($13.00) installed as the favourite this week despite the fact he played fairly average in his past 2 World Golf Championship events. Back on the European Tour and in his home country I’m sure he will rise to the occasion, especially when you take into account his form from only a month ago. His length is somewhat negated by a shorter track this week, however, if the expected rain comes in his distance off the tee could be a huge advantage. Alavaro’s countryman MIGUEL ANGEL JIMINEZ ($15.00) assumes the role of second favourite despite being in erratic form this year. Playing some excellent golf along the way he has been mixing up his form of late. He is one who loves a crowd and the soft greens will be a huge bonus for a player who loves attacking the pin. You can add to that the fact that his company is sponsoring the event and when players have done that in the past they often perform above and beyond.

It’s a pretty week field this week and it’s really hard to find any confident threats to take on the top 2 big guns. This could easily be a tournament for some of the lesser lights to grab their first title but that could also make for an interesting Sunday. I think there is enough value in some players who performed here last year like ROBERT COLES ($101) who finished 4^th and GABRIEL CANIZARES ($201) who finished 6^th. However, probably the best of the long shots is  PETER WHITEFORD ($81.00) who finished runner-up last year and can back that up with a 5^th place finish in the Sicilian Open last weekend.

The PGA Tour is in Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the tricky Bay Hill Golf Club. I am actually a little surprised at the price of TIGER WOODS ($9.00) this week, but not because I think he is too low but for the first time in a long time I think he is too high. Tiger has been getting better week by week and found his feet with his first Top 10 performance last start giving him the confidence he needs to return to the top. He also has a formidable record at Bay Hill where he has won this tournament 6 times in the past 10 years including winning in 2008 and 2009 when he wasn’t at his best. It definitely looks like a tournament for the big guns who hold a great record at this track and most in good form. I’m still very confident on Tiger but think his dangers lie in the form of DUSTIN JOHNSON ($17.00) who should have won here last year and MARTIN LAIRD ($41.00) who is punishing the ball at the moment and impossible to leave out. My roughie goes with SERGIO GARCIA ($51.00) and is on his way back from a long spell in bad form. He has looked a lot more like his old self in recent weeks and made a successful return to the PGA Tour in the Transitions Championship a fortnight ago finishing in the Top 20. He has 2 Top 5 results at Bay Hill so would be coming here full of confidence (Something has been missing from Sergio for a few years).

Our bets this week are:

PETER WHITEFORD to finish in the Top 25 at the Open de Andalucía de Golf at $4.00 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

DUSTIN JOHNSON to beat Graeme McDowell at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

MARTIN LAIRD to beat Robert Allenby at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

Golf
23 March 2011 comment

March 10th – Horse Racing Preview (Sat 12th March)

What a cracking days racing we have in store with Flemington hosting the Australian Cup and the Newmarket Handicap whilst Warrick Farm has the Turnpoint Guineas to give us 3 Group 1 races in amongst a stack of other top quality fields. There is a lot of action to get through so we’ll see what we can get finished off today / tonight and if need be I’ll an update Saturday morning.

Flemington is our feature this week with the ratings and preview so we begin with Race 1 which sees the 2 Year old Fillies take on the straight 6 furlongs. METONYMY becomes our first selection of the day straight out on the blocks on the back of 2 strong runs this preparation. I thought its last start 4^th was very strong even though it was well beaten by Sepoy (But then again who wasn’t). Definitely not denying it has some competition out there but I think it comes in really nicely for this race and is ready to produce its best. To the 2^nd race and BIGELOW is the first horse that catches the eye on the back of some strong races in Spring last year yet it has been very easy in betting so far this week which concerns me. The only things that it could be in relation to are the extra weight and the fact it is running down the straight for the first time. (In fact all horses are running down the straight for the first time) Having said that it finished off really strongly to record a first up win at the Valley last start. KULGRINDA definitely meets it much better off at the weights but will be having its first start at the Flemington track so there are a few question marks over her chances. Also thought it should’ve won at Morphettville last start so I have a little query there. For the multiple betters I’d have to include LIKE A GUEST in with the chances with some strong runs against good opposition.

To the 3^rd of the day and we have the first of the Group races with the Group 2 Sire’s Produce Stakes and HELMET goes out a strong favourite. Helmet actually won for us last start in impressive fashion but was very green in doing so. This horse obviously has a stack of ability and will become a great sprinter when it learns some manners, however, for now you’d have to have a lot of faith to back with it or against it especially now it will be running the opposite direction. MASTHEAD got plenty of admirers coming from well back in the Blue Diamond to finish a distant 3^rd from Sepoy. The 4^th race is the Group 2 Blamey Stakes and WHOBEGOTYOU is an odds on favourite in what is a fairly average field for him. Whobe was very strong in just failing to run down More Joyous last start and moves up an extra furlong to the mile where it has won 4 from 5 starts. DAODAO also ran well in the same race but was outsprinted by the other 2 and even though it gets off a little better with the weights I can’t see there being enough of a turn around to consider him a genuine threat.

To the 5^th and the Kewney Stakes and I really thought BRAZILIAN PULSE would have opened up a bit shorten than the $5.50. Having said that I am not 100% convinced that it can win tomorrow first up over the 1400m as I feel it is best suited when it gets over more ground. SAYAHAILMARY shows a bit of talent but hasn’t quite produced that when coming over from South Australia to Victoria. DO RA MI could be a good chance at each way odds on the back of a strong 2^nd last start. Notably in that race Shamrocker (Winner of the Australian Guineas last weekend) ran 4^th putting some good form lines into the filly.

The 6^th (Newmarket Handicap) race doesn’t have much to report about it even though it is a Group 1 race and one you won’t want to miss. BLACK CAVIAR just keeps on winning and it’s hard to see anything getting anywhere near her. Without doubt the best sprinter I have ever seen and even with the 58kgs it’s hard to see anything giving her a shake. STAR WITNESS is starting to return to the form that I think it can produce so it should be a good chance at filling one of the places. Word is during the week it had a super track work session which caught a few eyes.

The Group 1 Australian Cup is a much more even affair with a crack field to contest it this year. 2009 Melbourne Cup winner SHOCKING will be kept very tight this year throughout the Autumn after he shocked many by taking out a few early races en route to another cup assault. Is finishing off his races so strongly and just needs the speed to be on to be considered a genuine threat. Favourite HEART OF DREAMS was very solid last time round over the 1800m suggesting it may be ready to make the leap up to the 2000m where it has struggled in the past. I couldn’t take it as favourite in this field with that in mind though. Many of the horses in this field will be charging home late like GINGA DUDE, MOUDRE and PRECENDENCE just to name a few but they may be caught out by some nippy sprinters who get a soft ride. One of those to consider would have to be the West Australian PLAYING GOD who just got held up a vital time last start and given a better run could easily pinch this one before the others have time to react.

To the penultimate race of the day and I have to have a watch on topweight CULMINATE after it played up terribly last start and ran accordingly running out of puff in the straight. If the horse settles it should win against this field but how can you back a horse with confidence when it has manners like that. LADY LYNETTE always puts in a solid performance and is hitting some form but has a woeful record at this track (7 starts for only 2 placings). EXCEPTIONALLY is a Melbourne Cup contender in the coming years so will be keen to see how it finishes this race of to see if it’s worth getting on him early to win the big race at massive odds this year. GAIL just keeps on winning and in strong fashion so it has to be considered a strong chance in this field. STOLE could be a knock out and definitely one to consider for the quaddie punters wanting some value.

I really don’t like the last race at all. There has been some support for favourite UNDENIABLY but it has to have huge question marks in a field like this. There are chances everywhere and I could easily mention half a dozen horses and not hit a winner anywhere. You should go wide in the quaddie’s and Big 6’s but may be include DANZYLUM, OFFENDERS and NIBLICK in there somewhere.

To Warrick Farm and the feature is the Group 1 Turnpoint Guineas and favourite ILOVETHISCITY looks to have a strong hold the race even though it is a solid field. This horse was extremely impressive winning its last start at Rosehill and the step up to the mile will suit it to the ground. RETRIEVE has to be considered a danger after running a solid 2^nd to it last start and was hitting the line well suggesting the step up in distance will also suit.

To the rest of Warrick and I have an interesting runner in the first at crazy odds. CONISTON BLUEBIRD was never going to be a superstar but did have some ability before a heart defect caused it to put in some less than impressive performances. Whilst a win would be a minor miracle it does race a lot better fresh and at $126 it could be worth a few bob each way in case everything falls into place for him. Ahead to the 4^th race and we see KARUTA QUEEN take on PANE IN THE GLASS who undefeated and very well specked in betting for the Golden Slipper behind hot favourite Sepoy. I probably just give the nod to Karuta Queen because of the tight Warrick Farm track and the fact she will lead them along but it will be an interesting one to watch.

Our Early Mail Selections are:

11.30am – Flemington Race 1 – 3. METONYMY (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

1.15pm – Flemington Race 4 – 1. WHOBEGOTYOU (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win) **We’ll lock in the $1.80 available now as I think this will drop

2.25pm – Doomben Race 3 – 9. SEEK AND FIND (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

4.35pm – Doomben Race 6 – 11. TAFEER (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)

6.40pm – Ascot Race 5 – 5. SMOKIN DRAGON (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)

Our Best Roughies are:

12.55pm – Warrick Farm Race 1 – 1. CONISTON BLUEBIRD (Currently $126)

3.07pm – Doomben Race 4 – 8. BAY CITY KITTY (Currently $17)

4.05pm – Flemington Race 8 – 10. STOLE (Currently $26)

5.07pm – Warrick Farm Race 7 – 4. VINTEDGE (Currently $17)

Horse Racing
10 March 2011 comment

March 9th – World Golf Championship

All eyes are on one of my favourite tracks with the World Golf Championship – Cadillac Championship heading to the “Blue Monster” at TPC Doral, Florida. The top 50 players have all accepted to play this week making it a stellar field to contest and a huge chance for many to move themselves around the world rankings. The big surprise (Well for some anyway) is that TIGER WOODS ($12.00) has been topped as the favourite by TopPunter favourite and the new Number 1 player in World Golf in MARTIN KAYMER ($10.00). A well earnt position on the back of 3 solid years of playing top quality golf against the world’s best and the scary thing is I think the best is yet to come. Will be very interesting to see how he handles the tag of World’s Number 1 on a course he has performed well on before. Tiger will be keen to keep things moving in the right direction after showing signs the new swing changes are getting him back on track. He has won this tournament 6 times (only once at the Blue Monster) and will be suited by a course which rewards players who hit the ball long and take a few risks.

For the next line of betting you have PHIL MICKLESON ($16.00) who we all know I will never back in a tournament due to his erratic ways. He did win here 2 years ago though and does have a good record at the course so if you like him it is a good time to get on board. GRAEME MCDOWELL ($16.00) always gives himself the best chances to make birdies by hitting the ball down the middle all day long. That as huge advantage on any course but since he is one who can still give it a rip as well I would expect him to shot some low scores this week. MATT KUCHER ($26.00) continues to be somewhat of an unsung hero lower down the betting than I think he deserves to be. Is definitely Mr Consistency in the past 2 years and with a 3^rd place finish here last year you would think he likes the layout of the course and comes in with some good memories. GEOFF OGILVY ($31.00) is primed to win a tournament and this could easily be it. He finished high up the leaderboard in 2007 before winning in 2008. Whilst he hasn’t appeared in the Top 30 the past 2 years here he wasn’t swinging it as well. He has shown return to form in recent weeks and a win would not surprise at all. ALAVARO QUIROS ($26.00) has to be considered a chance on the back of some real solid performances in 2010. He hits the ball longer than anyone and as long as the odd stay one doesn’t sting him too much he will score a few under par this week.

Our bets this week are:

ALAVARO QUIROS to beat Rory McIroy at $1.93 (Managed Fund 10% Bet)

PAUL CASEY to beat Lee Westwood at $2.00 (Managed Fund 5% Bet)

GEOFF OGILVY to beat Luke Donald at $1.93 (Managed Fund 10% Bet)

Golf
9 March 2011 comment