May 26th – PGA Tour (Byron Nelson Championship)
I’ve missed the kickoff in the European Tour this weekend which is a big disappointment as I am a huge fan of the BMW Championship which is held at the great Wentworth Golf Club layout. They are playing on the newly refurbished West Course this year which I don’t know much about so I might watch the action for the first round or two and see if something pops up over the weekend.
The PGA Tour is also hosting one of my favourite events in the Byron Nelson Championship in Texas. The reason I love this tournament as It has often unearthed a new talent and they are usually the young kid who doesn’t mind giving the ball a good whack. Last year’s winner JASON DAY ($16.00) was a perfect example of that and showed no fear throughout the week (until a slight hiccup in the final few holes when victory was on the cards). Low scoring is a definite and I have always found those who are willing to take chances and get the ball right out there off the tee will prosper here. My top pick this week goes to CHARLEY HOFFMAN ($34.00) who is one of the more consistent golfers on the PGA Tour without really scoring many wins. Charley is 25th in driving distance and 13th in birdie average which is a perfect recipe for this course. Missed the cut here last year when he wasn’t playing as well but a return to Texas will get the big guy firing. This could be the week SERGIO GARCIA ($29.00) cracks back into the winners circle after some really positive signs in 2011 so far. He has won this event when he was back in his prime (2004) so that has to go in his favour. For my final selection I’m going outside the big hitting ranks with a guy who is just playing really solid lately in JOHN SENDEN ($41.00). Senden is having a great year to date and is hitting his irons a pure as anyone on tour. He doesn’t have the length of the tee as most others but knows how to get around the course.
Tempted to give ANTHONY KIM ($67.00) a wrap as he comes back to his home course which should also suit him massively but he just isn’t swing very well at all. The guy has the game and just needs to find it. Maybe this week is the week it all comes together back in a familiar environment. He is a loss to the game when he isn’t on top of it.
Our bets this week are:
DUSTIN JOHNSON to beat Nick Watney at $2.00 (5% Bet)
JOHN SENDEN to beat Scott Verplank at $1.90 (10% Bet)
TOMMY GAINEY to beat Greg Chalmers at $1.90 (5% Bet)
May 21st – Doomben Cup Day Preview
Doomben is the main race meeting this weekend with the Winter Carnival in full swing.
We get into the action nice and early with a watch on VAREENA MISS in the 1st race. This horse really impressed me in its Victorian form and I would expect that to continue up north. Not keen to take the $2.40 on offer at the moment with its first run in QLD but I do expect it to be right in the finish.
In the 2nd I thought SNOW ALERT could be worth another crack. He got way too far back in the Scone Cup and with the smaller field I can’t see Michael Rodd letting them get too far in front of him entering the straight. Again I think the price is a bit thin for me to make it an Early Mail tip.
The 3rd race is all but a given and we will lock in the $1.80 available for strong favourite HOT SNITZEL in the Group 2 Champagne Classic. Sniztel brained his rivals last start at the Gold Coast and a repeat performance here is expected. For those who like the multiples with the short favourites I am expecting a strong first up run from INTERNAL REVENUE.
I would expect that DIVORCES will be strongly supported in the 4th race on the back of a strong win last start. Whilst it did look strong in the finish it definitely found the better going in the centre of the track and was superbly ridden by Hugh Bowman who again take the reins. I’m thinking this will be a lot tougher and I think the price on offer is too skinny for me. I think BECCERA rates a much nicer prospect for a small investment on the race at huge odds. Meanwhile the confidence from the New Zealand camp relating to SCARLETT LADY is extremely positive with a strong first run in Australia expected.
The 5th race….WOW…. not a chance of finding a winning chance in this race. For the multi / quaddie punters you will need to go wide or get lucky because I could name 12 horses that could easily win this race.
In the 6th I was tempted by topweight BOLD GLANCE based on the 2 strong Sydney runs during the Autumn Carnival but its form at Doomben is terrible. I’ll pass but can easily see how people will be jumping on board. THANKGODYOU’REHERE will be another who is favoured by the punters with some good credentials on its back. However, anyone who watched the last run at the Gold coast it appeared to have run out of steam in the concluding stages and that is a huge worry here. Should be fitter for the run but if it has to use petrol from the wide barrier to find a position it could be found wanting in the straight. TAMPIKO, meanwhile has been unwanted in betting and I can’t really see why. A strong winner last start and I think a much better prospect that the above 2 mentioned horses. However, my top pick in the race goes to LISTEN SON who has been specked in betting its last couple of runs and the stable is feeling very confident again this time round. Had terrible luck in running last start and will be better for it this time round.
To the feature event of the day, the Group 1 Doomben Cup and it’s a smoking hot field to contest. The former Queen’s horse MY KINGDOM OF FIFE has looked unbeatable in its past 3 wins and is easy to see why it could go one further here. It does meet some stiff opposition this time round though in SHOOT OUT, who made strong ground on it last start but does have a poor record at Doomben. The real watch is GLASS HARMONIUM who made a strong Australian debut finishing a close up 2nd to My Kingdom and jockey Hugh Bowman suggested it had a tough run and would easily beat it next time round.
The last race is much the same as the 5th race with it almost impossible to tip a winner. At least the 5th race had some good form to go by. This race is fairly ordinary considering the rest of the day and I would recommend not going near the Quaddie tomorrow as even if you survive the suicide 5th race you are surely gone in this one.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
1.15pm – Doomben Race 3 – 1. HOT SNITZEL
(Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
2.04pm – Belmont Race 1 – 1. MABEL GRACE
(Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
2.16pm – Flemington Race 5 – 6. PERTURBO
(Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
3.00pm – Doomben Race 6 – 10. LISTEN SON
(Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
5.20pm – Belmont Race 6 – 7. REIMBURSMENT
(Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
1.50pm – Doomben Race 4 – 6. BECCERA (Currently $41)
2.51pm – Flemington Race 6 – 10. HIPHOPOPOTAMUS (Currently $13)
4.35pm – Rosehill Race 8 – 3. MARTIN PLACE (Currently $26)
May 19th – PGA and European Tour Reviews
Big week of golf ahead of us and a lot to get through. Depending on how the events progress we may have more bets on the European Tour this weekend as they are in Spain for the World Match Play Championship. This events sees round robin matches on the first couple of days with the finals over the weekend. It’s hard to stand out a winner from the start but I do know last time they played at this course in 2009 the event was dominated by the big hitters of the European Tour (even though eventual winner Ross Fisher isn’t one of them). Obviously that brings ALAVARO QUIROS ($17.00), RORY McILROY ($9.00), CHARL SCHWARTZEL ($15.00) and MARTIN KAYMER ($9.00) right to the front of my mind. Of the 3 I’d probably lean towards McIlroy as the best option as I feel he’s hitting the ball a bit better than the other 2. Quiros has been a bit inconsistent in recent weeks, whilst Kaymer has shown signs of recovery from a swing change in recent times.
The PGA Tour host the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial and it is always a birdie fest. Length off the tee isn’t as important as accuracy this time round with a solid iron game giving you plenty of chances to sink birdies. Not much of a “testing” tournament but more one for the crowd. I like the chances of the old timer JIM FURYK ($29.00) who comes into the tournament without a win in 2011, a rare sight for the American. He is a super consistent golfer and can sometimes be hard to find in the winner’s circle with a string of runner-ups but he does know how to manage a course, stay out of danger and therefore make birdies. BRIAN GAY ($34.00) wasn’t a surprise to find higher up the bookie board this week as he is often a strong chance when the courses get a little easier. Has been sinking plenty of birdies in the past couple of weeks and should be right on his game here. I start to look out in the smokies now and can’t go past BRIAN DAVIS ($67.00) who is super solid off the tees and looks a good bet to make the Top 25 this week. Last pick goes to DAVID TOMS ($34.00) who is another who stripes it off the tee and is in good form with a high finish at the Players Championship last weekend.
Our bets this week are:
RORY McILROY to finish top in his group (McIlroy, Goosen and Colsaerts) at $2.10 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
CHARL SCHWARTZEL to finish top in his group (Schwartzel, Jimeniz and Edfors) at $2.10 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
JOHN SENDEN to beat Sean O’Hair at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
BRIAN DAVIS to beat Davis Love at $1.93 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
May 12th – Scone Cup Day Preview
The Scone Cup is on the card tomorrow and deserves a mention as the biggest Country Cup (I’m pretty sure??). Quality fields across the board and I’ve always found Scone to be a fairly consistent track and good to bet at. I did have a good look through the card and unfortunately only came up with one standout selection for us but it is a 5% one. BORDER REBEL just looks like it wins tomorrow in the Scone Quality. This horse has had 2 starts here before for wins and is just a super consistent horse that really gives them something to chase. I think it is a good field but it should have the edge and I really expected a price tag closer to $2.00.
For the Cup race I am putting HIDDEN WONDER just in front of SNOW ALERT and FANJURA.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
3.27pm – Scone Race 6 – 2. BORDER REBEL (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win) **We’ll lock in the $2.70 available as I am very confident that will shorten in by tomorrow.
May 12th – PGA Tour (Players Championship)
PGA Tour is the feature this week with the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. This event is held in very high regard by the players and is often referred to as the 5th major. Hard tournament to pick though as its often been won by a player with no form coming into the event. I still believe that if you are playing well and have a good record at the course you are going to be a strong chance during the week.
ADAM SCOTT ($34.00) stands out as a strong chance at decent odds this week. Scott won the tournament back in 2004 when he was on top of the world rising as high as Number 3 in the World Rankings. He has really started to show some of the signs of that form and most of it is because of his conversion to the broomstick putter. The funny thing is Scott’s game never really went away as badly as some golfers have but he was putting atrociously every time her got in contention for a title. It’s hard for me to come up with new reasons to write about LUKE DONALD ($15.00) but the truth is the guy is on fire. He has been unstoppable this year and you would have to think he’ll compete at a high level again this weekend after having a freshen up last week. BEN CRANE ($31.00) has been going about his business in 2011 with a strong of high finishes without capturing the major prize or eye of many tipsters. It’s no surprise to see the bookies with a fairly tight leash on him this week with 3 finishes inside the top 6 in the past 3 years at this event.
Hard to really find another standout here with Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson under injury clouds and in erratic form.
Our bets this week are:
ADAM SCOTT to beat Hunter Mahan at $1.85 (10% Bet)
BEN CRANE to beat Matt Kuchar at $2.05 (5% Bet)
NICK WATNEY to beat Dustin Johnson at $1.90 (10% Bet)
BUBBA WATSON to beat Ricky Fowler at $1.85 (5% Bet)