May 30th – Tour de France Opening Preview
It is that time of year when we turn from from “I need eight hours’ sleep a night or I’ll be grumpy” to “If I sleep tonight I might miss all the action”.
The sports purists are already well in the groove of working on little sleep with the opening rounds of Wimbledon keeping us up late followed by the early morning starts for the US Open.
Wimbledon is now getting to the pointy end of the title chase and many of the cycling fans are starting to find themselves well in the zone for late nights in preparation for the 2011 Tour de France.
The Tour is one of the top sporting events for anyone who has taken the time to watch the full coverage since SBS took the full rights and began broadcasting them in their entirety.
Although the action is not non-stop like a football code, there are many intricate details to this event that has been running for 108 years.
What adds to the event are the stunning country and hillside roads the riders take to every day. A simple stage can turn into a fascinating history lesson as you are continually updated by Phil Liggett and Paul Sherwen on every castle, town or building as the riders pass through.
Their ability to keep you engaged for 4 hours at a time during some of the flatter stages is outstanding!
This year’s tour flips things on its head with the traditional opening day prologue removed and replaced with a flat stage to start us off.
It’s a tricky little stage that could create some real excitement at the finish. The finishing stretch on Day 1 is all uphill and wont suit the purest of sprinters but rather the big men that can sustain a run for a longer period.
Thor Hushovd springs to mind, along with Alessandro Petacchi as genuine threats, however, they could be knocked off by a strong short trialer like Alexandre Vinokourov.
For the long-term, the green jersey (sprinter’s title) I really think is in the hands of Mark Cavendish, who proved to himself that he can get over the mountains and even find himself competing for points on stages where he previously couldn’t.
Tyler Farrar and JJ Rojas would be fresh in my mind as knock-out hopes should they find themselves in a few of the major groups over the bigger mountains in the second week.
The teams then get together for a team time trial on day two that won’t really make much difference to the overall standings but may give us an indication of which teams have been making an effort in working together.
It is a great spectacle to watch the teams really push out a smoking pace, and often luck can play a major role with a poorly timed flat tyre meaning the end of someone’s tour after two days.
The first week in all has a good combination of flat-out sprinters stations and some tricky sections that are perfect for someone sneaking away in a breakaway and getting themselves in the yellow jersey for a day or two.
I think the stage is set for a real random to hold the yellow jersey for an extended period at the beginning of the tour. Not until we hit the eighth stage of the tour on Saturday night do we see any real mountains to give the riders their first real hit out.
I will be back to write a review of the first week and a preview of the upcoming stages most likely on Friday night. Until then soak up the atmosphere and get yourself a good supply of late night snacks.
It wouldn’t hurt to grab a new pump for the bike because for many of you the inspirational achievements by these sporting giants often cause you to drag yourself outside for roll.
June 15th – US Open Golf Preview
The 2nd Golf Major of the year is the US Open played at the refurbished Congressional Country Club in Maryland and the world’s best golfers are going to have their hands full. The altering of some tee locations and angles has meant that bunkers will come massively into to play and I think the winner will struggle to break par over the 4 days. There will be very little familiarity for those who contested the 1997 US Open here and it should come down to a purist game of the best golfer over the 4 days will win. The loss of Tiger Woods through injury is no doubt a shame but the world’s best golfers are all in form and I believe will be the ones gunning for the title on Sunday. I will change my review style this time round describing the main hopes for the title along with my prediction about their chances for the major. I have also thrown in my smokie at the end as well as I know some of you love following them.
LUKE DONALD ($15.00)–Hitting the ball better than anyone this year and rightly deserves his Number 1 ranking at the moment. Has a great short game which will be an asset here. Top 10 Chance
PHIL MICKELSON ($16.00) – I think this course suits him if he can keep his driver under control when he needs it. He didn’t quite come on 2 weeks ago which does worry me but should bounce back here. Top 25
MARTIN KAYMER ($31.00) – The German has revamped a large chunk of his game in 2011 and has started to show signs he has it back in the swing. Has nerves of steel which is a necessity here. My Top Selection.
LEE WESTWOOD ($12.00) – Favourite for the tournament and well backed after winning and having 2 other top 10’s in his last 3 starts. I’ll cop plenty of flack but for me he still doesn’t have the mind game to win a US Open where every inch of your game is tested. Wouldn’t surprise to see him miss the cut.
STEVE STRICKER ($23.00) – A last start winner. Worst finish 33rd this year which features 8 out of 10 finishes inside the Top 20. If my heart says Kaymer my head says Stricker. Definite contender for the title.
ZACH JOHNSON ($81.00) – My roughie selection. Johnson has been solid in recent weeks without setting the world on fire. He has won a major before and is so consistent from tee to green even though his length is far behind the big bombers on the tour.
Our bets this week are:
MARTIN KAYMER to beat Graeme McDowell at $1.85 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
STEVE STRICKER to beat Hunter Mahan at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
LUKE DONALD to beat Lee Westwood at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
JOHN SENDEN to beat Ben Crane at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
June 10th – Stradbroke Handicap Day Preview
The best day of the Winter Carnival is in Brisbane this weekend for the running of the Stradbroke Handicap along with 2 other Group 1’s. This used to be a must do event in Brisbane at with the running of the Brisbane Cup on the Monday to make it a great long weekend. For those real sport enthusiasts every 2nd year (not this one) you could even stick around for 2 more days and go to the State of Origin (NRL) at Suncorp Stadium. One of the great sporting events in what I believe to be the best stadium for sport in Australia (Sorry MCG comes a close 2nd). Unfortunately similar to the movements with the Autumn Carnival in Sydney they have combined the Stradbroke with the Brisbane Cup to create a “super” day.
To tomorrows racing and there are massive fields in Eagle Farm and a lot of work to go through. I will try and keep the reviews to the basics so as not to confuse or look like I am just trying to cover my bases. In the 1st I was disappointed to see CINDAROCKINRELLA draw wide as I thought it was worth another crack this week. If you’re betting on Betfair and it gets over easily at the start then it could be worth loading up. It’s too short for favourite LUCKY MORNA who will be my first lay bet of the day at that price. Takes too long to wind up making the 1200m way to slippery for it. With a few of the good chances drawing wide I think the top pick has to go to BELLE D’ARMOUR who was strong last start against Free Wheeling.
The 1000m scamper is next on the card and whilst it isn’t a hugely strong field it is a fairly even one. TEMPLE OF BOOM has a great record over the track and distance and although its first up, it has produced 4 wins from 5 starts when fresh. Of the challengers I think BEETHOG has been getting stronger as it gets older. Connections seem to have learnt to keep it fairly fresh between runs and the results are showing that there are on the mark. Finally ADEBSI produced a strong last start win, however, I find it is too inconsistent to follow long term.
ST GERMAINE again looks a strong chance in its 3rd run in Australia. The 3rd race is another huge field which I think puts some doubt in the horse even though I think it has obvious ability. Seems to leave its run too late. If it takes too long to wind up, a horse like EQUABLE could get the jump on her and have plenty of trouble of chasing him down in the straight. ABSENT FRIENDS could also be a contender it manages to find cover from the wide draw.
The 4th race is the Brisbane Cup and looks all for GLASS HARMONIUM after a strong win last start against much tougher opposition than this. The Irish galloper has real class and should be a major contender in the spring as well.
The TJ Smith over the mile is the first Group 1 of the day and HOT SNITZEL is firmly in the minds of the bookings after he stung them last week when they let his price slide and the punters jumped on late. The Snitzel colt repaid those who didn’t lose faith (like us!) with a commanding win. Having said all that I think it should win again but its price is too skinny from the wide draw. 2 starts ago it drew wide and had a horror run and just lost its fire in the straight. I think with BENFICA drawn inside him it is more likely to get a better run in transit and could be tough to hold out when the whips are cracking.
The 6th race is the Group 1 Queensland Derby over 2400m and I am a little surprised that SHOOTOFF has been backed in as favourite even though conditions are drying the track out and Shootoff has a shocking record on the firm surface. I think CHARING CROSS looks much more appealing at the $20 mark with some solid form in Sydney before heading north. SHEZ SENSATIONAL had a strong Oaks run last weekend and should be right in the mix here whilst HEIDILICIOUS had poor barrier manners once again in the Oaks when it reared at the start costing it any chance. Not the first time it’s done so and once again it flew home when the race was over. If this horse ever jumps with them and settle she will win some big races.
The Stradbroke Handicap is the feature event of the day and it is a great field to challenge for Group 1 glory. I’m giving my top pick to BLACK PIRANHA who is trying to win its 3rd straight Stradbroke. That clearly shows the love for this track and distance and it is primed for the race after a fast finishing 3rd behind BEADED in the Doomben 10,000 a fortnight ago. Beaded was very strong in that race also but I just feel that Black Piranha will be more suited here. I thought WOORIM might have been a strong contender had it not drawn a very wide barrier. It was more than likely going to go back from the start anyway so assuming it finds cover it could finish the race off. Having said that if you like him then the drying track means THANKGODYOU’REHERE is a much better prospect after doing everything but win against Woorim last start whilst having a much more impressive dry track form. Include ZERO ROCK for the multiples as a light weight hope as it will try and scoot across at the start and could give them something to chase down the stretch.
The last race is a really tough one to pick. A lot of the strong chances have drawn wide and in such a big field of 3 year olds it is a nightmare to standout anything. I know many of you love the Quaddie’s and Big 6 bets so my selections would be SKILLED, STEEL ZIP and BIANCA JEWEL.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
1.35pm – Flemington Race 4 – 2. PERTURBO (3% Win)
1.45pm – Eagle Farm Race 4 – 1. GLASS HARMONIUM (5% Win)
2.03pm – Morphettville Race 4 – 6. RULING TO WIN(3% Win)
3.55pm – Belmont Race 4 – 2. GUM NUT GURU (1% Each Way)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
3.00pm – Eagle Farm Race 6 – 9. CHARING CROSS (Currently $21)
4.00pm – Morphettville Race 7 – 9. AVOCA STREET (Currently $26)
June 4th – Queensland Oaks Day Preview
Eagle Farm is again the venue for racing with the Winter Carnival in full swing and a heap of Group 2’s and the Group 1 Queensland Oaks to keep us all entertained. The weather has turned on another fantastic day and hopefully the results follow suit.
The first race of the day looked at first glance to be a pass me by till you look closely at the field. Normally a Class 6 race wouldn’t excite on such a big day but this field is really strong and very even. Hard to get too involved in the race with some big warning signs thanks to a betting plunge on WORLD WIDE who has firmed up dramatically overnight. I wasn’t really that impressed with its last start at Nowra, albeit under a huge weight, but someone is obviously very confident. Would lean towards HEARTSHAKER as my top pick but you’d want the ground to stay no worse than dead as he has a poor record on the firm surfaces. SEE YOU looked promising in the straight last week and should be fitter again for the run. It just needs a bit of luck in the straight to get a clean run and it will be finishing fast.
We get straight into the big races in race 2 with the running of the Group 2 Eagle Farm Cup and it is a stellar field worthy or a Group 1 race. I’m giving my top pick to GLASS HARMONIUM who was given a crazy ride from Hugh Bowman last start when it took off mid race and was run down on the post in a tight finish of the Doomben Cup. No surprise to see connections have gone with a new jockey here and hopefully a better result. SCENIC SHOT keeps producing big runs in big races and has to be considered a threat but I think the Irish horse has the goods on it this week.
In the 3rd race of the day Kiwi raider ST GERMAINE made an impressive debut when making steady ground at the end for a 2nd place finish. Gets some nice weight relief in a race that looks fairly average on paper. MYSTICAL GREY looks massively over the odds after a really strong win on the cushion track at Sunshine Coast last start. This is a step up in class but it has done that before with strong results. A nice firm track would definitely be an advantage.
Back to the Group racing in the 4th with the Group 2 Sires Produce Stakes. I am amazed to see the lack of confidence surrounding HOT SNITZEL who went down as a short priced favourite last start. The horse never really settled last start and was stuck 3 wide coming to the turn and found FREE WHEELING too strong in the straight. Incredibly there has been a jockey merry-go-round between the horses with Bowman and Brown switching horses for the race. BENFICA was another Snowden trained horse that looked strong in its last start win and will provide some tough competition.
The Group 2 Dane Ripper Stakes is next on the list and we are hit by a huge and very even field to contest. KANZAN deserves to be one of the favoured runners after a hard fought win last start at Doomben. Having said that you’d have to rate ZERO ROCK on top of her considering it had a much tougher run and was only just beaten on the post last start. Zero Rock also meets Kanzan a kilo better off in the weights as well. I’m keen to see how YOSEI handles the Eagle Farm track after impressing me with its first up run at Flemington behind Doubleanny. The Stuart Webb camp have been whispering around the tracks that this horse is ready to roll.
The Group 2 racing continues with the QTC Cup the 6th race on the card. SINCERO goes in the solid favourite as it looks to prepare for the Stradbroke next weekend. Has been in great form and this races looks very suitable although it is a strong field. VAREENA MISS made a very good race debut in QLD with a win at Doomben but has drawn horrendously and will need luck to get a clean run here. MOTSPUR catches the eye at big odds and could be the blow out horse. Trainer Kris Lees took the horse to Eagle Farm last year for a run and it was very impressive in winning. With back to back wins at Rosehill and Scone its past 2 starts you’d have to think connections are feeling a little confident of producing an upset.
To the feature of the day and the running of the Group 1 Queensland Oaks over 2400m. Last week we spoke of the confidence surround NZ stayer SCARLETT LADY and after a strong first up win in Australia she has taken favouritism here. FILLYDELPHIA is another racing in good form but does need some luck in the straight. Rolled forward last time round form a wide barrier so may do the same again here. SAVANNAH’S CHOICE has been the bridesmaid in its last 3 starts but might get a soft sit here. Don’t see a lot of pace in this race and if it gets away with it easy it could make it really tough to run it down.
The final race of the day puts forward a few chances but I think whilst I often say to go home early I think it’s worth hanging around. CELTIC DANCER has drawn barrier 20! but showed last start that it has the heart to work hard and still produce an effort. Worth a dig in your multiples at massive odds. SPIRIT OF BOOM you know is going to finishing strong. The question is will it have enough time to hit the front. READY TO RIP looks well placed in the race and is undefeated at the track in 2 starts here.
Around the country there are some good betting opportunities around which is in stark contrast to last weekend that was very tough. No stand out 5% selections but a string of solid 2% and 3% selections that could leave you with some good cash in your pocket at the end of the day.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
12.25pm – Sandown Race 2 – 4. SHYLOCK’S DAUGHTER (3% Win)
12.40pm – Eagle Farm Race 2 – 4. GLASS HARMONIUM (2% Win)
1.30pm – Rosehill Race 4 – 10. FOXSTAR (1% Each Way)
1.55pm – Eagle Farm Race 4 – 1. HOT SNITZEL (2% Win)
3.30pm – Rosehill Race 7 – 14. OFORAWESOME (2% Win)
3.35pm – Belmont Race 3 – 3. REIMBURSMENT (3% Win)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
1.20pm – Eagle Farm Race 3 – 14. MYSTICAL GREY (Currently $34)
4.10pm – Rosehill Race 8 – 7. PRIOR BARON (Currently $26)
4.18pm – Morphettville Race 7 – 10. ROWDY ROCKER (Currently $15)
4.35pm – Eagle Farm Race 8 – 5. CELTIC DANCER (Currently $51)