July 27th – PGA and European Tour Preview
Will Irish eyes be smiling on the European Tour on Sunday at the conclusion of the Irish Open at the Killarney Golf and Fishing Club? That is the question many are asking as Irishman RORY McILROY ($6.00), GRAEME McDOWELL ($17.00), PADRAIG HARRINGTON ($19.00) and DARREN CLARKE ($26.00) all sit high up in the betting markets at the start of the tournament. With conditions expected to be fairly mild with maybe some light drizzle only serving to soften the greens I am expecting scoring to be very high and that plays right in the hands of US Open champ Rory McIlroy. Looking through the field you really struggle to find any consistent birdie makers but would have to consider DANNY WILLET ($51.00) a RICHARD FINCH ($51.00) chance of being up there if their heads are screwed on right. The big smokie that I think is worth a nudge this week is ROSS McGOWAN ($151.00) and those reaching through the form guide would no doubt be asking why?? The reason is the McGowan for the past few years has had only a handful of good results and only one “purple patch” at the end of 2009 where he recorded a win, 2nd and 3rd in the space of a few tournaments. Each time that happened the scoring was a birdie fest and even in 2010 when he finally put a round together it was when he was able to shoot better than 10 under. Don’t sell your house for it but I think he’s worth a couple of bucks. In fact for those who are of the smarter breed with Betfair accounts you would be laughing at the odds of McGowan who is a massive $400.00 giving you the perfect chance to have a few dollars on him and if he starts well you can lay the bet back off again with ease knowing you are in a win win situation.
The PGA Tour hosts the Greenbrier Classic in West Virginia this week and organisers have a little surprise for those who expected this to also be a birdie fest. Actually its not that dramatic but they have endeavoured to make scoring a little tougher with a few additions to the course but I still think the winner will shoot over 10 under comfortably. For that reason I’m sticking BRANDT SNEDEKER ($29.00) in as my top pick for the week as he loves this style of course where you don’t need to bomb the ball a mile down the fairway. SERGIO GARCIA ($19.00) gets another mention with a 2011 season that seems to improve with every week. He surely can’t be too far away from recording his first win. Outside of that it is pretty slim pickings with a number of players showing some potential for a good week but I’m not really that confident to stick my neck out on any of them.
Our bets this week are:
GRAEME McDOWELL to beat Ross Fischer at $1.80 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
SERGIO GARCIA to beat Phil Mickelson at $2.13 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
BRANDT SNEDEKER to win his group (Spencer Levin, Gary Woodland, Brendon de Jonge, Andres Romero) at $4.00 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
July 20th – PGA and European Tour Preview
Another weekend is on its way and the golfing continues in the wake of The Open Championship won by the veteran Darren Clarke in a solid display of golf in horrible conditions. There were 2 real surprise packets in the tournament in Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson who really showed their fighting qualities when the going got tough. For that reason DUSTIN JOHNSON ($8.50) looks really tough to beat in this week’s Nordea Masters (Scandinavian Masters). Not only is he well in form now but this track is long and fast and the big guys will be bombing it a long way in front of those who like to just keep it on the short grass. BUBBA WATSON ($17.00) is another who gets the ball out there off the tee and showed signs of an improved game last weekend suggesting he could be right in this.
Of the local hopes FREDRIK ANDERSSON HED ($31.00) has been mixing his form this year but looks much more at home on a course where he can make some birdies rather than grinding his way through. HENRIK STENSON ($17.000 is another who is a huge chance of being in the running come Sunday. Was showing signs of returning to form before an average performance at Sandwich last weekend.
The PGA Tour hosts the Canadian Open and it is a much tougher prospect. This tournament has often thrown up a smokie who comes out of the clouds to take the cash making life much tougher to find a winner her. However, a golfer I have followed with some interest this year is RYAN MOORE ($23.00) as he is really playing some solid golf. When delving a little deeper I found that Moore put in a great performance to finish 5th in the Canadian Open in 2005 (The last time the tournament was held at this course). Add to that the fact he’s almost a local here and he screams out as the top pick. The other golfer who performed well here in 2005 and although not in as good form this year could easily turn things around is BEN CRANE ($61.00). Crane also grew up in the area so his odds may be worth having a nibble at.
Our bets this week are:
FREDRIK ANDERSSON HED to beat Johan Edfors at $1.90
(Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
DUSTIN JOHNSON to beat Robert Karlsson at $1.80
(Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
RYAN MOORE to beat Hunter Mahan at $1.87
(Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
BEN CRANE to beat win his group (Bryce Moulder, Brian Gay, Paul Casey) at $3.90 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
July 15th – Horse Racing Preview
The weather continues to hold out for much of the country and the results are showing with some significant gains in recent weeks. For those who have been playing with the Weekend Ratings the consistency in weather generally means they become more of a helpful tool as well. In fact last weekend all 4 legs of the Eagle Farm quaddie went to the TopRated horse. That means for $1 you could have collect the $480 collect on offer. These ratings can be a gold mine as we get towards the spring and the pools get bigger and bigger.
To tomorrows racing and Rosehill is the feature meeting again with a solid 8 race card. We get into the action straight away with HURRARA looking the goods in the first race of the day. A return to form with a strong win last start at Rosehill puts it in good stead here. With super jock Nash Rawiller onboard we can expect it to be coming along strong. In the 2nd MISS MARX looks another strong prospect with its recent great form. I’m still a little concerned over the 1400m which it found a bit too far last start so I’ll leave it alone this time round but keep it safe.
The scratching of topweight Queenian is a big disappointment in the 3rd race of the day. This horse won really well for us last start and I was expecting it to be right in this. I have no doubt the scratching had to do with the fact it drew barrier 16. The leaves the race wide open and it is too hard to find a winner here. In the 4th race there has been strong support for WAZN who won impressively last time round at the 2000m. This race again looks really well suited and with only 52.5kgs to take around after the jockey claim it is going to be very tough to beat.
In the 5th race I think there is great value about COUNTERPANE who is nearing double figure odds and always races well fresh. Back to the 1200m where I think it is suited best and has a number of runs under its belt at the Rosehill track. A little bit of overnight rain should just do enough to take the sting out for her as well. It does have some stiff opposition in RAIN MELODY who had an impressive win last start here, DUBLETTE who has found its legs in its most recent starts and DIVYA who loves the Rosehill track with 2 wins and placing from its 3 starts here.
Hard to know what to make of the 6th race of the day which has a strong field for the Winter Stakes. Favourite and well supported SCARF would’ve been a short priced favourite before its last start flop where it never really got into things. It appeared as though it had enough of racing and was ready for a spell but Snowden could easily get its game face back on for this race. I’m keen to see the run of EQUABLE who has made its way back home after a couple of tough runs during the winter carnival in Brisbane. Comes into this race with a nice weight and could roll to the front from the nice draw.
BRAYROAN has been strongly supported in early betting in the 7th race of the day. It’s not unusual for Brayroan to be strongly supported but it doesn’t always produce. Its first up run was solid and clearly it wasn’t at peak fitness for the hit out. A big weight and inexperienced jockey are causes of concern for me. FUTURE SOLUTION is in a similar position with a heft weight rise a concern even though the form line around the horse is very impressive with a close 2nd to Hidden Gem here last start (Hidden Gem won very impressively last weekend). OTHELLO is another racing well but drawn a bit wide so will need some luck early. The lightly raced HUQUI could easily upset all of these horses in only its 3rd career run. Definitely a massive jump in class but it did beat the talented Raspberries in its maiden race and comes into this race carrying only 50kg after the claim.
To the last race of the day and UNANIMOUSLY is the form horse for me here. A good run last start behind our Early Mail selection at the start on the day in Hurrara. Might be worth watching how Hurrara runs there before deciding to unload here. The query runner in the race is MASTER OF DESIGN who has been moved to the David Payne yard and has a ton of supporters of its talents. A new yard often brings a win and punters have jumped on early to shorten its quote.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
12.30pm – Rosehill Race 1 – 2. HURRARA (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
12.35pm – Morphettville Race 1 – 2. SAFETY IN NUMBERS (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
12.45pm – Caulfield Race 2 – 4. YOU THINK SO (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
2.05pm – Doomben Race 4 – 2. AQUATORIAL (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
2.15pm – Rosehill Race 4 – 7. WAZN (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
2.31pm – Caulfield Race 5 – 2. MYTHICAL SPIRIT (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
6.00pm – Belmont Race 7 – 12. KELIA (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
1.20pm – Caulfield Race 3 – 9. INVINCIBLE JESS (Currently $12)
3.30pm – Belmont Race 3 – 1. LIE IN WAIT (Currently $12)
4.00pm – Rosehill Race 7 – 14. HUQUI (Currently $31)
5.20pm – Belmont Race 6 – 6. SOUTHERN COMFORT (Currently $16)
July 13th – The Open Championship Preview
My favourite tournament and major of the year is on our doorstep with The Open Championship set to kick off tomorrow afternoon at the normally extremely tough and exposed Royal St Georges Golf Club. The last couple of times this course has hosted the major players have walked away bruised and battered and struggling to make par. In fact the past 2 times it was played (1985 & 2003) only 1 man has broken par (Ben Curtis -1 in 2003). The course designers have made a few changes this year and whilst the layout is basically the same with many blind tee shots, sloping fairways and a plethora of bunkers the big difference is the knee high rough that was waiting to gobble up your ball if you ventured off the short grass has been cut to a more manageable level. That grass used to make life a nightmare for anyone who strayed slightly and often was a case of having to chip out sideways.
This year there are a number of golfers in great form making it really difficult to find a standout winner. Most people will have their favourites depending on if you are a regular punter to the golf tours or just someone who bets when the big majors are on. RORY McILROY ($8.70) goes in an extremely short favourite following his record breaking win in the US Open where he dominated the field for all 4 days. No doubt he is playing well and has so much talent he could adapt to any conditions but I still have question marks on him during these sea side links courses. I believe he over thinks things and is much more at home when conditions are perfect and you are throwing darts at the pin making plenty of birdies. LUKE DONALD ($12.00) has had a Tiger Woods like year with a stack of wins on the PGA and European Tours including a win last weekend putting him right in the mix. His accuracy off the tee will be a huge asset around this course where fairways and greens are more important than distance off the tee. LEE WESTWOOD ($12.00) makes up the trio of favourites and again I’m leaning on the side of thanks but no thanks like I am with McIlroy. The difference here is Westwood does have a game that suits the windy conditions and he does step up when a major is on the table. My issue again is his driver which can get the wobbles when the pressure is really applied.
I am always going to keep MARTIN KAYMER ($26.00) pretty close on my picks as the guy has supreme talent and has just been going through some swing changes since he dominated the game back in early 2010. A top 5 finish last start suggests he may be back in the groove and he has always played well on these links courses. GRAEME McDOWELL ($29.00) is another who loves the links courses and was brought up in windy conditions in Northern Ireland. Proved his mettle with a win at Augusta National when the wind blew a gale and has been in strong form this year and ready to win. SERGIO GARCIA ($31.00) is trying to sneak under the radar as he is steadily making his return to the top of the golfing game. The big problem for Sergio will be the big emphasis on the passing of fellow Spaniard Seve Ballesteros earlier this year as he won the Open Championship 3 times during his immaculate career. There will be many who draw the line between the 2 and the pressure may just be too much for him to handle.
Obviously those I have reviewed above are in the favoured selections with betting which I know many of you like to know whether to back or lay the top picks. For those who like to get on something with a bit more value I think conditions suit JUSTIN ROSE ($51.00) who is a proven wind player and is at home on the links courses. Not playing so well this year but if he gets off to a start he could really shake things up. NICHOLAS COLSAERTS ($151.00) has really impressed me this year with some great results against the world’s best golfers. Is one of the games big hitters which isn’t so suitable here but he is very accurate and if he has it under control he could be a major upset for the crown. Finally I am going with BRIAN DAVIS ($201.00) as my final selection and I haven’t really got a good reason why. An Englishman that spends all of his time on the PGA Tour doesn’t really read that well but I have always found he digs in when conditions are tough (Doesn’t happen much on the PGA Tour). An absolute smokie I know but worth a couple of dollars.
Our bets this week are:
JUSTIN ROSE to beat Retief Goosen at $1.91 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
CHARL SCHWARTZEL to beat Jason Day at $1.91 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
ROBERT KARLSSON to beat Freddie Jacobson at $1.87 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)