August 31st – FedEx Cup Playoffs and European Tour
Week 2 of the FedEx Cup Playoffs is in action with the Deutche Bank Championships at the very open TPC Boston. This course has been a haven for those who can’t control the driver as your main goal this week is to get the ball as far down the track as possible and most of the time the danger isn’t so big. If he didn’t win last weekend you’d have to think DUSTIN JOHNSON ($19.00) would be right at home here as he generally hits the driver well but the one mistake he makes normally finishes off his round. Backing up after a win is always a tough ask but it’s not uncommon in FedEx Cup history so I wouldn’t completely count him out. The Aussie pair of ADAM SCOTT ($19.00) and JASON DAY ($21.00) look a much better prospect though after a super 2011 so far. Both are consistently finishing at the top of the leaderboard and Day in particular reads really well with a runner-up finish here last year.
If you’re looking for an overall pick for the FedEx cup you’d be crazy to leave out STEVE STRICKER who just eats it up at this time of year. He hasn’t had a super year for the big tournaments but he has been so consistent again this year and he is a guy who knows how to win.
The European Tour is hosting the Omega Masters in the high peaks of Switzerland and has still managed to pull some big names despite all the action in the US with LEE WESTWOOD ($11.00), RORY McILROY ($10.00) and MARTIN KAYMER ($17.00) all set to contest the event. It’s a tough event to predict with those big 3 at the helm but they’d all have to admit they aren’t in super form. McIlroy has a tidy record at this event when he has been able to turn up so it’s no surprise to see him listed as the favourite. MIGUEL ANGEL JIMENIZ ($34.00) is very tempting at these odds considering his record in recent years where he was the winner here last year (and tipped by TopPunter). The reason for his selection was the fact he’d finished 4th and 3rd in the 2 years previously and he loves these courses where birdies are a plenty. The big blowout could be BRETT RUMFORD ($151) who is a former winner here and has also finished in 13th, 32nd, 23rd and 44th for his other results in the past 5 years. Whilst he is hitting the golf ball like it’s got crazy glue in it at the moment you’d have to think he is walking into the course with a fair degree of confidence. I thought he may have been value as the top Aussie in the field but with a fairly weak Aussie contingent he is a skinny $4.50 which isn’t too tempting.
Our bets this week are:
JASON DAY to beat Matt Kuchar at $1.87 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
RORY McILROY to beat Lee Westwood at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
August 30th – US Open Round 1
As always when the tennis majors are on we like to get involved as there is much more money in the pools giving us a fairer market to bet with. We have found a few good bets for the first round and hope that we can find a few more as the tournament progresses.
Our bets today are:
JUAN IGNACIO CHELA to beat Marinko Matosevic at $1.55 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
NICHOLAS MAHUT to beat Robert Farah at $1.50 (Sports Managed Fund 15% Bet)
August 27th – Caulfield Horse Racing Preview
We again preview Melbourne in the lead in to the big Spring races later in the season with Caulfield being the venue tomorrow. We start the day with a very well backed short priced favourite in PLUCKY BELLE who is held in high regard by the Peter Moody team. Moody is often know for throwing his horses out in the provincials to get their maiden win out of the way but last year Moody showed his hand with this filly by starting her in a Group 3 race at Flemington and it only just missed the mark. After a dominant win at Seymour in its next trip to the race track it opened at $2.25 before being crunched into $1.85 and they are still coming for her. With the target the Thousand Guineas in October you would want to see it put away what is a fairly weak field if it is going to challenge the boys in 6 weeks time.
In the 2nd fans of MISS GAI FLYER would have to assume the horse was not a fan of the wide open spaces of the Flemington circuit and will fare much better on the tight Caulfield track. LA PRALINE has been nursed along though it’s very short career and there would be plenty willing to jump back on board after a strong start earlier in the year. There a few other strong horses that may just find this a bit short first up. The 3rd race is a very open race making life very tough for a tipster. The good side of that is if you find a horse you like you are more than likely going to find value along with it. OCEAN CHALLENGER meets those conditions with a great record at the track and a solid first up run where it found a bit of trouble and looked to have a bit more to give. You’ve got to give plenty of credit to SIMPLY PUT who is another who had it tough in its first up race at Caulfield before dropping right off in the straight. This horse took on some really good horses beating Mid Summer Music before running 4th and 2nd in 2 group 3 events at the end of its last campaign.
The main early hopes for the Thousand Guineas are in action when the boys get their chance in the 4th race of the day. It’s a great field with plenty of hopes making it hard to stick your neck out on any one horse. TopPunter followers know I am a fan of GOLDEN ARCHER who lost no favours when running a distant 2nd to Sepoy last start as it comfortably held the others at bay. SATIN SHOES proved it is a genuine threat to the top 3yr olds in the country with a strong win last time round. A wide barrier draw does concern me with him though. I’m surprised DO YOU THINK wasn’t trialled leading into this after it was such a successful method in its opening campaign. Fair chance it will be up and ready to go here though. I actually think the best odds in the race are for GLISSADE who will be much more suited to the firmer surface and the step up to the 1200m this week. For the future punters it could be worth a crack to win the Thousand Guineas at a tidy $31.
To the 5th race and there is a standout selection for me in TESTASCANA who has been dominating every field it comes across for much of its career. The big query here is the very wide draw but this horse has shown the ability to lead or chase with similar results suggesting that as long as it isn’t stranded out wide without cover for the entire race. There are some talented horses in this field but I think he has a jump on them.
Next we get to the feature race of the day being the Group 2 Memsie Stakes and fairly strong field to contest. HEART OF DREAMS has been fairly consistent first up in the past so you’d have to think it will go close here but the odds are a bit skinny for me. There was a lot to like about PRINCE OBAMA’s last run when it was only just beaten by super horse Whobegotyou when $101 with the bookies. No reason to think it can’t do the same again here. With the majority of runners being either first or second up in this race you are really betting with faith.
In the 7th race it’s hard not to follow the money behind the Newcastle trained galloper ATOMIC FORCE who makes his Melbourne debut tomorrow. It rarely runs a bad race and the improving track conditions mean if it handles the Victorian way of going you’d have to think it’s a massive chance. Caulfield is not a track that encourages me for a Victorian debut so I’ll just watch with interest. AVENUE is another who catches the eye with a tremendous record on top of the ground and has tasted plenty of success here. A wide barrier isn’t a great sign though as I’m sure connections would like to see it roll to the front. Controversially ACORNS has drawn to get a really easy run and although its last first up effort was against a much weaker field it has to be a seriously contender here.
The final race of the day is also the toughest and for the Quaddie and Big 6 punters I think the dividends will be massive as it caps off what is a good watching but not fun betting day at Caulfield. I generally stick with the rule of when I doubt go with track form and Caulfield is definitely one of those tracks where it holds strong. That said my favour leans towards TIME MATTERS, MR GRISWOLD and CARNERO.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
2.40pm – Rosehill Race 4 – 9. DANCING ATTENDANCE
(Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
2.50pm – Morphettville Race 4 – 2. RED DRESS MARLEY
(Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
2.58pm – Caulfield Race 5 – 6. TESTASCANA
(Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
3.41pm – Doomben Race 6 – 3. BELLTRIST
(Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
5.50pm – Belmont Race 6 – 8. LIKE AN EAGLE
(Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
1.45pm – Caulfield Race 3 – 6. SIMPLY PUT (Currently $12)
2.05pm – Rosehill Race 3 – 7. RASBERRIES (Currently $13)
3.06pm – Doomben Race 5 – 9. PENNY LOUISE (Currently $21)
August 24th – FedEx Playoffs and European Tour
All freshened up after a week off and we get straight back into the big action with week 1 of the FedEx Playoffs being held at Plainfield Country Club for The Barclays. This is the top 125 players in the FedEx Cup standings and next week only the top 100 will survive and the list goes on and on till the final round in a month’s time. A lot of interest always surrounds the players around the “bubble” each weekend and this will be no exception with a number of quality players at risk of missing out. A win can catapult you from the cellar to championship contender so no one is without a chance of taking the major prize at this stage.
The only problem with this tournament is I’m finding it very hard to find much information on the course. The PGA Tour is much worse for those wanting to do study of the previous results, changes to the course etc and when matched up against the European Tour it looks like a low budget film production. It’s no surprise that the majority of our winners come from our European Tour bets and I’ve found myself needing to keep a bible of past results, interesting holes, weather conditions for all the PGA Tour events that in a few years to come will be an extremely valuable resource. One thing I did notice was this seems to be a fairly short course so on appearances you want to be on the ball strikers like LUKE DONALD ($13.00), STEVE STRICKER ($15.00), DAVID TOMS($26.00) and ZACH JOHNSON ($41.00) for those who want a bit more value.
I think the value for the tournament may be in the top Aussie market with some great prices about JOHN SENDEN ($12.00), NICK O’HEARN ($21.00), and STUART APPELBY ($26.00) all genuine chances of being the top placed Australian yet are paying huge odds.
The European Tour is again without the big guns making it a bit of a lacklustre affair for the Johnny Walker Classic in Scotland. There is a long form line to read through for the tournament with the event being held in the same place for the past 13 years in complete contrast of the PGA Tour which hosts a new venue. A few golfers have featured in multiple years but aren’t in scintillating form like SIMON DYSON ($19.00) and JAMIE DONALDSON ($23.00), however, if you were going with this line of thought I would be more inclined to go with GREGORY HAVRET ($51.00) who gives you much more realistic odds about their chances. The real contenders for me are ROSS FISHER ($21.00) who has a class on most of these golfers and GREGORY BOYD ($31.00) who really impressed me last week and is knocking on the door for a win.
I think the value is going against those who’ve performed well here in the past but in bad form against those who are striking the ball well. Normally that is a big indicator for me but that is only with players who have the ability to play at a higher level than most.
Our bets this week are:
GARY BOYD to beat Jamie Donaldson at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
ROSS FISHER to beat Eduardo Molinari at $1.95 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
August 10th – PGA Championship Preview and Bets
The final major of the year is upon us with the PGA Championship at the Atlanta Athletic Club the host venue. A number of golfers have homes in the Georgia area and there are even a few that have good memories of this particular venue. DAVID TOMS ($46.00) won here in 2001 and made a successful return to the game last week with a strong performance in the WGC Bridgestone. Having said that he is the only one I will really recommend from prior knowledge as the course has undergone a few revamps in the past 10 years and is now playing incredibly long with rock hard fairways and difficult rough that will challenge the best of them. Fairways off the tee is going to be so crucial, however, those who try and layup will find the long ride home incredibly tough. I think the form from last week is a better mark to go by and that is where I lie the best of my selections. ADAM SCOTT ($21.00) dominated the field in winning last week and really found some good form with the driver to go with his hot putter in 2011. Likewise JASON DAY ($21.00) looked good for much of the week but his driver went a bit south on Sunday and that puts a big question mark over his head for me. For me the real performers beside Scott were LEE WESTWOOD ($13.00), who found a game that really puts him on the cusp of taking the major crown he should have earned some time ago and RORY McILROY ($10.00) who is a bit skinny for my liking but he really played well at Firestone but his putter just scrapped the edges all day. His game is built for a course like this and I could easily see him tearing away with it like he did at the US Open a short time ago.
For the rougher picks I’m going to put my neck on the line with MARTIN KAYMER ($31.00) one more time. He is another who should be suited by the style of course and he loves playing in the warm weather that is expected to reach extreme temperatures. Each week more of his game is coming together and I can’t see it being long before he rises to the top again. FREDRIK JACOBSON ($81.00) gets my final pick on the back of a really solid 2011 and a great performance last week. He didn’t put the best Sunday together but he is a confidence golfer who could really get swept up in PGA fever this week.
For TIGER WOODS ($21.00) followers I was impressed with his comeback performance at Firestone. I think he’s a long way off being at the top of his game (if he can ever get back there) but he really showed signs that he could put some low numbers down this week.
The odds this week come from Luxbet.com who have put on a great promotion this week for the PGA Championship. Aside from the usual depositing bonuses for first time customers that sees a $25 starting deposit earn you a $100 free bet if you back a golfer and they are in the Top 3 at the end of any round you’ll be refunded your bet back plus still have the golfer be a cha
Last week we went 4 for 4 in our head to head selections and I know a few of you who chucked them in a multi and collected some handsome dividends with odds over $11. As always our golf bets are the driving force behind our Sports Managed Fund which has been on fire in 2011.
Our bets this week are:
RORY McILROY to beat Luke Donald at $1.98 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
TIGER WOODS to beat Phil Mickelson at $2.05 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
FREDRIK JACOBSON to beat KJ Choi at $1.93 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
August 5th – Flemington Preview
Flemington is the place to be on Saturday as we have some great fields and at this stage the weather is doing its best to stay sunny and keep the tracks in great condition for racing. We start the day off there with a cracking race which I hope isn’t ruined by the small field and a possible muddling tempo. I have a high opinion of DANCE WITH HER, which was a tad disappointing last start, and SIDECAR who won in strong fashion at its last start. I probably tip the ledger towards Sidecar based on last efforts but I don’t want to get involved here. In the 2nd there has been strong support for CLUB COMMAND who won its maiden race at Seymour in comfortable fashion a few weeks ago but this is a huge step up in class. For me MOTORISED was much more convincing against a better class of horse so would be better value at slightly better odds.
In the 3rd we see impressive last start winner in THERE’S ONLY ONE go up against BONDARENKO who should’ve finished a lot closer the 5th last start when one of our Best Roughie picks. There’s Only One gets the nod for me with the strong finishing burst and a significant weight drop from its last start victory. In the 4th race it’s hard to see MR GRISWOLD repeating its last start heroics with another win. The horse has drawn wide and there is no significant speed in the race to give it a good drop into the race. CABEZA had a good win first up last preparation at Flemington so would have to be considered a strong chance again here. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a long shot blow in especially with the amount of international raiders in the race along with SANRIO who looks well placed for this race.
The 5th race is a real drop in class from the other races. Normally this works in our favour as there is a standout horse that isn’t in the same grade as the others but no in this case. The favoured horses have a few pluses but too many negatives to get involved. PRUSSIAN STORM looks decent value but will need a easy run as it is at the limit, if not passed its distance. In the 6th race PERTUBO is and deserves to be favourite on the back of a couple of really strong wins its past 2 starts. Again it meets some good opposition here but it will definitely be somewhere around the finish. Very tempting to have it as an early mail pick but horses like OFFENDERS and MISS GAI FLYER who both have a great first up record and the drying track goes more in their favour too.
LETHAL ARROW proved me wrong last week when he won for the 3rd time in succession. Looked to be stretched to its limit in winning but hard to argue with winning form. It meets a fairly weak field in the 7th with most horses who have form have been racing far inferior opposition. Would be a hypocrite to jump on board after being against it last week. For the last race of the day at Flemington I’ve got WINGED CHARM on top although the huge weight is a concern. Might be better off going something with slightly better odds in MODEL TO NITE who has been racing well at the provincials.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
1.15pm – Flemington Race 3 – 2. THERE’S ONLY ONE (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
2.40pm – Eagle Farm 5 – 10. PEELINGS (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
4.10pm – Randwick Race 7 – 6. WHISPEROSSA (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
4.20pm – Morphettville Race 7 – 4. UXORIOUS (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
1.25pm – Eagle Farm Race 3 – 7. FELONY FLIGHT (Currently $10)
2.10pm – Randwick Race 4 – 6. THE WARRIOR WOMAN (Currently $13)
4.15pm – Belmont Race 5 – 7. ISABELLA MAREE (Currently $14)
August 1st – July Review
What a great month we have had so far. We don’t post all our tips on the website as we need to give some benefit to those who have subscribed to either the tipping service or are part of the Managed Funds. The funds take on board all our bets so they are a direct reflection on how we have been going.
After another great month we found a great 21% profit in our Horse Racing Managed Fund and 27% in our Sports Managed Fund. In fact our Sports Managed Fund customers have seen their investment almost triple in 2011 so far.
If you are interested in receiving more information or just want to subscribe for a free month trial then send me an email at brad@toppunter.net