September 30th – NRL and AFL Grand Final Preview
Football Finals Fever is all over the country with the AFL and NRL Grand Finals on Saturday and Sunday respectively.
In the AFL the 2 most consistent sides of the year are competing and many predicted throughout the year. However, the big money has been for the 2nd ranked side throughout the year with GEELONG CATS ($1.70-$1.85, best price with www.iasbet.com) who have been in much better form in recent times. COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES ($2.00-$2.10, best price with www.tab.com.au) have been the favourites since winning the Grand Final last season with a strong start to the year that saw them dominate everyone they came across. In fact their only 2 loses for the year have come against the Cats and one of those was in a fair amount of controversy due to a play on ruling. The 2nd loss was far more devastating with the Cats thumping the Magpies by 96 points only a month ago which is when the cracks started to appear. More cracks showed when last weekend it appeared that Hawthorn had smothered the Magpies and looked certain for a victory before a miracle comeback to win in the dying minutes bring their legendary coach Mick Malthouse to tears. The bookies are saying the money has been 13 to 1 in favour of the Cats which seems ridiculously high for my liking. I honestly believe that there would’ve been some huge money placed on the Magpies throughout the year and the bookies need to even out the stakes by getting as many people on board the Cats to avoid a large loss. I can definitely see how many would jump on board the Cats bandwagon but I still feel the experience of the Magpies will be a telling factor and they will have learnt from recent matches where they have been strangled in the middle of the field. Malthouse will have been conjuring up a plan to counteract the tactics of Geelong since the defeat a month ago and I expect them to get over the line….just.
In the NRL there would be few who would’ve predicted either the MANLY SEA EAGLES ($1.45-$1.50, best price with www.tab.com.au) or the NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS ($2.68-$2.70, best price with www.sportsbet.com.auand www.iasbet.com) let alone picking them as the Grand Final Quinella. Most of the good money is on the Sea Eagles who have been a solid unit for many weeks now and arguably were the best team for the year behind the Melbourne Storm who were bundled out by the Warriors last weekend. Meanwhile the Warriors are on the crest of a wave that has seen them knock off a West Tigers outfit who many claimed had the goods to win the crown before flicking minor premiers the Melbourne Storm. Last weekend’s game against the Storm was a clinical display of a side that is well drilled and clearly had learnt from their loss against Brisbane in week 1 of the finals. For mine you will have a fair indication of where this match will go in the first 20 minutes of the game. I believe the weakness in the Sea Eagle side is when their forwards are attacked with pace that sees them struggle to get over the advantage line. I think if the Warriors bring a similar game plan that saw them choke the Storm for yards by getting in the face of the Manly side early they may panic them into searching too wide too early. If not the Manly side has a classy backline that possess a multitude of attacking weapons to strike from. I think the odds are too skewed for my liking and therefore my favoured option would be the Warriors by 1-12 points in a low scoring affair but you have to respect that Manly are and deserve to be the favourites.
Our bets this week are:
COLLINGWOOD to beat Geelong by 1-39 points at $2.75 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
Either the MANLY SEA EAGLES or NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS to win by less than 6.5 points at $2.85 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
September 30th – Mooney Valley Preview
Here we go for the start of an action packed long weekend of Sports and Racing. We begin the weekend with a fantastic card at Mooney Valley and it is a shame to see that rain may see some of the big names scratch in favour of Sunday’s meeting at Flemington. Still there is plenty of action out there for us and hopefully we can find some winners too.
We start with the 2nd race of the day where BEL SHOES looks a good each way price on the back of 2 strong runs this prep behind Booklet and Irish Dream. It has drawn a little awkwardly but this horse has a great record and the track and will be primed to strike 3rd start in from a spell. In the 3rd race the action really starts to heat up but you’d have to be a huge fan to get on early favourite SATIN SHOES at the price. I stated at the start of its prep that it could really show something this spring and whilst winning that day it has found trouble its next 2 starts. I’m just not confident the Caulfield and Mooney Valley tracks are suitable for this horse who likes to see plenty of racing room.
Likewise in the 3rd race of the day you will be holding your breathe the entire race to see what DEFINITELY READY will come up with. The horse has obvious ability but seems to have one of those chronic breathing issues that plagues some horses. One its day it can rival the best and the Mooney Valley track is the most suitable for it but I can’t justify the shorts about it with those risks in place. Having said that many of its bigger dangers have drawn wide so it may get an easier run in front this time round. The Group 3 JRA Cup has been decimated by scratchings with many of the big guns moving to Flemington with the expected rainfall. Small fields can be really hard to find winners in with erratic racing patterns usually on the cards. Maybe SILENT SURROUND just gets the nod from me.
The big race of the night is the Group 1 Manikato Stakes and the expected showdown between young gun SEPOY and the seasoned MORE JOYOUS is in big doubt with connections of More Joyous suggesting the horse will be scratched if the rain turns up and the track gets to a Slow 7. Think Sepoy probably had her covered anyways as More Joyous’s only other trip to the Valley wasn’t great and Sepoy is flying at the moment. 3 weeks ago I saw one of the great runs for a horse on the rise in ATOMIC FORCE who copped plenty of rough treatment before just failing to win at the Valley. This horse could potentially be a really danger horse for Sepoy tonight and is more proven if the ground gets sticky.
The Group 2 Bill Stutt Stakes is between the CHASE THE RAINBOW and WHISPER DOWNS for me. Again the wet track could be a query for both runners but based on the odds at this stage I’d have Whisper Downs on top as its last start was clinical and showed it is improving with every run. For the final race of the day I suggest you go home and save your cash as its rough. Potentially we could also be looking a pretty boggy surface by this stage which will alter many previous thoughts on the race as well. For the roughie punters you may get your chance to steal some last minute cash and if that’s the case I’d be leaning towards horses like RED BUTTONS or STONEBLACK
Our Early Mail Selections are:
7.15pm – Mooney Valley Race 2 – 6. BEL SHOES (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
10.15pm – Mooney Valley Race 8 – 6. RED BUTTONS (Currently $81)
August 21st – PGA Tour (FedEx Cup)
We’ve reached the final round of what has been a hotly contested FedEx Cup Playoff. WEBB SIMPSON has lead for much of the season and has just been super consistent every week. Having said that the beauty of the FedEx system is because the points go up every week the opportunity to come from behind is very high and he has his work cut out to stay ahead of the pack. LUKE DONALD is probably too obvious pick this weekend with a runner-up finish here last year to go with 3 other Top 25 finishes from his 4 starts at this track. He’s had a stellar year and seems to have got over the mid season shakes which saw him play well instead of brilliant (Hard to imagine I know!). I love his chances but will give my top spot to ADAM SCOTT who has had a bit more going for him later in the season and can boast a win here in 2006 when he was on an equally hot streak. His iron play is well suited to the East Lake course and 2 more top 10 finishes here prove that he has the game to win the Tour Championship and possibly a long shot to sneak the FedEx crown. Of the others I have always had a high opinion of NICK WATNEY when it comes to ball striking courses so its no surprise to see he has figured in the Top 25 in both of his trips to this course.
Our bets this week are:
ADAM SCOTT to beat Jason Day at $1.87 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
NICK WATNEY to beat Dustin Johnson at $1.80 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)