November 1st – Melbourne Cup Preview
A great day is on the cards for Melbourne Cup day at Flemington and it is a really strong field to contest the race. Much of the hype has been around the international horses due to the lack of quality stayers in Australia. I have always said the Melbourne Cup day is the hardest to tip from as the fields are normally average and you waste too much money on the big race. We have found some good looking bets and I really could’ve stuck a couple more in there without even venturing into the other venues.
For the Melbourne Cup I will preview my thoughts on my Top 5 selections and why. Last year we successfully picked 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th from our 5 selections and the favourite (So You Think) ran 3rd giving many a nice paying First 4.
23. NIWOT ($9.00) – For those who stuck with the very early TopPunter tip of Niwot (We started mentioning it back in May when it won the Ramdsen over 3200m at Flemington) you are absolutely laughing with odds of $81 regularly being offered and the horse in top form. He dominated a strong field in the Lexus on Saturday winning by over 3 lengths with 2 more lengths back to 3rd. The distance isn’t an issue either with the win over 3200m earlier in the year catching my eye for its impressiveness (Even though it was a weak field).
7. UNUSUAL SUSPECT ($41.00) – Honestly hadn’t really looked at this horse until a few days ago when I started my Melbourne Cup form reading. His run in the Caulfield Cup went unnoticed but was without a doubt the run of the race. Got held up a number of times at vital stages of the race and although I think it wouldn’t have caught the winners I think the extra distance looks like it will suit perfectly. Untried over the distance but well weighted and a good barrier so I think it should run it out nicely.
2. JUKEBOX JURY ($12.00) – The forgotten horse of the top 3 heavyweights. Will be tested in the fact it is having its first Australian start in the big race but it has the form to get through that. The fact that 2 starts back it beat both Americain and Dunaden by over 5 lengths each says this horse has plenty of class and doesn’t really deserve to be so high in the market. Fresh off winning the Irish St Ledger the distance won’t be a problem and the only real danger to me will be how it handles the tight racing we have in Australia. From Barrier 6 you will know how it will handle things very early with plenty of horses flying over to gain a position close to the fence.
18. MOYENNE CORNICHE ($26.00) – Caught my eye with its debut and only Australian start in the Hebert Power stakes with a fast finishing 3rd. that has been a great form race for me in the past and I’m more than happy to stick with it again here. Beat a solid field in its last start in England in the Ebor and will have no issues over the 2 miles. Will need some luck form a wide barrier early though.
6. MANIGHAR ($31.00) – I had a number of horses fighting for the 5th and final position and Manighar just scraps in there for me. Funnily enough I’ve never been a fan of the Caulfield Cup form but this year a couple have grabbed my attention. This horse grabbed my final pick based on the fact it has been here before so has experience on its side. Last year it came from 16th to finish 7th and did a similar job in the Caulfield Cup coming from back in the pack to run 4th after finding some trouble in the straight.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
11.45pm – Flemington Race 3 – 12. EXCLUDED (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
12.30pm – Flemington Race 4 – 3. LITTLE SURFER GIRL (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
3.55pm – Flemington Race 8 – 4. LAMASERY (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
October 28th – Derby Day Preview
The weather is doing its best to put on a special day for the highest quality day of racing that Australia produces each year for Derby Day at Flemington. The day is full of drama with a bunch of Group 1 races and horses trying for a last ditch attempt to score a spot for next Tuesdays Melbourne Cup.
We start the day with a very good looking horse in GALAH who has only lost one race in its career when on debut and beaten a short nose at Randwick. Hard to see it getting beaten here. The real interest starts in the next event being the Group 3 Lexus Stakes which has many of the Melbourne Cup contenders trying to gain a last ditch spot in the field with a win. Those who jumped on NIWOT early in betting when I suggested it to be a long shot for the Melbourne Cup are hoping it gets a nicer roll towards the front of the pack it had last time round in the Caulfield Cup. I thinks it’s got its work cut out with the like of GREEN MOON looking a much stronger chance after its last couple of great runs. MOYENNE CORNICHE looked impressive in finishing strong behind Shewan and Tanby and you’d have to think the longer the races get the better this horse will look. ANUDJAWON is the best of the outsiders and should be coming home late.
Can anyone beat ATLANTIC JEWEL to glory in the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes? The answer is no! The only danger to this horse is the extra distance and it doesn’t even look close to stopping it. GLIDING will have gotten plenty of its admirers based on its successful rise to the 2000m last start for its maiden victory. Much stronger class of horse running around here so will need to lift again to claim victory. The first of the Group 1 races is for the 3 yr olds with the Coolmore Stud Stakes and another raging favourite in SEPOY who has suffered only 1 defeat in its 10 race career. Again it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see it being hard to beat here but it does have some competition. FOXWEDGE and MASTHEAD have shown they have some ability and I think ADAMANTIUM doesn’t look the worst horse to sneak into the placings.
The Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes is another race full of Melbourne Cup contenders and hopefuls but is often used as a warm up race for some. I think GLASS HARMONIUM has to get another mention after you can forget its Cox Plate run when missing the start. FORETELLER was a strong winner for us last time round but will have to lift here against a much stronger field and a weight rise. I thought REKINDLED INTEREST was the run of the race behind Pinker Pinker in the Cox Plate and is at its ideal distance with the 2000m.
The 3rd Group 1 race of the day earns a spot in the big race next Tuesday with the Victorian Derby for 3yr olds guaranteed the 24th spot on the day. MANAWANUI goes out a strong favourite after a string of great runs where it has shown great speed and tremendous courage. However, I really think the extra distance is going to push it right to the limit. It’s not a really strong field of 3 yr olds this year and to be honest the horse that qualifies may not even run in the Melbourne Cup. SABRAGE and SANGSTER raced each other last time round and both ran on strongly over the 2000m suggesting the extra distance shouldn’t be a problem. The also ran it in 4 seconds faster than Manawanui. NIAGARA has been aimed for this race from a long way out. Looked to be holding some back in the same race as the previous 2 before really getting going over the final 200m which has me picking it for the top spot. Finally I am going to stick in I FEEL GOOD who had a top race last week at Mooney Valley when stepping up a long way in distance. The rider sat up a long way from home even though it came from last to finish 4th behind Manawanui. At $121 the TopPunter roughie punters should be all over this, especially after we snagged a $41 shot in the last at Bendigo on Wednesday.
The Group 1 Myer Classic sees the great racing continue on Super Saturday and there is a lot of confidence surrounding topweight MORE JOYOUS who has been flying during its track gallops in preparation for this race. Nash Rawiller has stated that she doesn’t have the same speed that she once possessed but the extra distance still gives her plenty of time to wind up for the finish. Hard to really find confidence in anything to beat it although I do think LADY LYNETTE and GOON SERPENT are well over the odds.
The Group 2 Salinger Stakes (Race 7) is the toughest race of the day with a number of quality horses running around and many in good form. TEMPLE OF BOOM has posted 2 wins in its past 2 starts but has drawn wide here so will need luck early. SISTER MADLY found the 1400m too long last time round but will be much more suited back to the 1200m here. MID SUMMER MUSIC and CURTANA get the nod for me though with 2 great runs behind Sepoy last time round. The 1200m is ideal and both sneak in with a nice light weight. The final race of the day doesn’t get any easier with a number of chances to win here. DOUBTFUL JACK showed plenty of ticker when given a cold by Black Caviar at the Valley last week and could give them plenty to chase. LAUNAY did it tough on the speed last time round and was a sitting duck for the swoopers. Has a great record here unbeaten at Flemington from 3 starts which ticks even more boxes. Only just misses an Early Mail pick but if you’ve had a good day up to here then I would suggest having a few dollars on him.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
12.10pm – Morphettville Race 1 – 2. SKY RAIDER (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
1.48pm – Rosehill Race 3 – 4. HENDRICUS (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
3.30pm – Rosehill Race 5 – 1. ATOMIC FORCE (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
4.15pm – Doomben Race 5 – 10. HIDDEN KISSES (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
4.30pm – Flemington Race 8 – 9. MID SUMMER MUSIC (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
3.00pm – Flemington Race 6 – 14. I FEEL GOOD (Currently $121)
4.50pm – Rosehill Race 7 – 12. NITRO (Currently $11)
5.20pm –Morphettville Race 8 – 11. ROWDY ROCKER (Currently $15)
October 22nd – Cox Plate Day Preview and Tips
Whilst Derby Day is the premium day for punters I have no doubts about Cox Plate day being my favourite day to be at the races. The Mooney Valley setting is perfect for a race that is intense from the moment they jump and run past the post and the crowd for the first time. If you’ve never been before you’re missing out and if youre going tomorrow then I may just see you there.
The first couple of races are lacking a real streak of quality with an average bunch of 2 and 3 yr olds going round. BLISS STREET should be the top pick in the 2nd race but looked a bit over cooked last time round when given a bath by Atlantic Jewel. EURAYLE looks like it wants to give more and I’m not sure the horse has really been fully pushed yet. The 1600m definitely suits the horse more so may expect more from her tomorrow. The 2 favourites in the race in TWILIGHTING and CLASSIC ELLE both come out of the same race and I’m not really sure of the quality. Twilighting can run a strong 1600m so probably shouldn’t be passed over. Finally the 3rd race of the day has a bit more class inserted with KARUTA QUEEN assuming top spot on the tables following a solid 2nd place behind the great Black Caviar last time round. May not have an easy time of it with some talented youngsters showing some good form early in their career, however, it does appear to have ability and experience on its side here.
At race 4 we reach the Group races with the Group 2 Michelton Wines Vase over the Cox Plate distance of 2040m. It’s the first of 2 group 2’s with insanely short favourites in MANAWANUI ($1.20) followed by BLACK CAVIAR ($1.04) in the 5th. Many bookies are starting to offer markets without favourites to keep the punters interested so I’d expect to see a few of those options pop up here. The only question mark for Manawanui is the step up in distance, however, based on its last run you’d have to think it could do that with reasonable comfort. For the 2nd place finish I’d lean towards I FEEL GOOD, but only just. In the Group 2 Schweppes Stakes (Race 5) I am looking at BALAVAN just in front of SCENIC BLAST for the back up spot to Black Caviar but I’m again I’m not saying it with any real confidence.
The 6th race sees last years Melbourne Cup winner AMERICAIN make its return to Australia in the Group 2 International Cup. It was first up last year when winning the Geelong Cup so you have to respect its abilities. I think this year it has a lot more focus on backing up its Melbourne Cup win so a victory tomorrow might not be on the cards as much as before. I’ve got 3 big watches in the race in SHEWAN, TULLAMORE and ILLO who are all serious contenders for the Cup. The first 2 need a win to gain a spot in the big race whilst the Germany horse Illo is all but assured a spot so the question is more about how it has travelled and if it likes the tight Australian racing. Shewan was impressive winning the Herbert Power last time round beating Tanby who ran a strong 2nd in the Geelong Cup on Wednesday. Meanwhile Tullamore was one of the best runs in the Caulfield Cup with a really strong finish. He has copped a bit of a weight penalty for it and the Mooney Valley track may not give him the room he needs to get wound up but look for it late. ANUDJAWON could be one for the roughie or multiple punters if it can find a decent spot from the wide gate. Will need some luck late though.
Next up is the Group 2 Crystal Mile and racing really starts to get tough with a field full of horses who have erratic form. You can easily name a number of horses that have a chance here and still miss the winner. I often say when in doubt look to good jockeys and a good record at the track so GINGA DUDE, BLACKIE and HAPPY TRAILS get my vote.
We come to the big race of the day and by now we may really be needing a winner so hopefully we can dissect the form of what is a really strong solid field. Unofrtunately many of the big hopes have drawn wide which is going to make the pace of a the race very interesting. I’d be very surprised if favourite HELMET doesn’t roll to the front from the outside barrier after its strong performance in winning the Caulfield Guineas last time round. Although it caries almost nothing it will have its work cut out for it with GLASS HARMONIUM also keen to get its nose in front and much better suited with the ideal draw near the rails. SECRET ADMIRER looked very comfortable staying away from the early speed in the Epsom and it could be a real blow out for punters if they decide to go a bit crazy early on here. REKINDLED INTEREST found plenty of admirers when it comfortably held early favourite JIMMY CHOUX at bay in a trail earlier in the week. Jimmy Choux returned to the track yesterday and put down some amazing splits that put him right back in the mix. I think Glass Harmonium may end up getting a comfortable run in front after an early speed burst and I have him just on top for the big win in front of Jimmy Choux.
Its worth hanging round for the final race of the day with the Group 3 Trojan Hand Tools Stakes hosting a quality field in the 9th. LADY LYNETTE looked lost at Caulfield last time round but is a horse that seems to thrive on the big occasion so I’d expect it to hit back here. NERIANI has been drawn to get a great run and could be a nice lightweight hope here. Has been in solid form and will be hitting its peak fitness after a strong start to its spring campaign.
October 14th – Caulfield Cup Day Preview
It seemed like we were waiting forever for the big races, then before you know they are all upon us with the 1st of 3 massive weeks of racing with the backbone of the Spring Carnival. Caulfield Cup day can be one of the toughest days for punting but we’ll do our best to come away with some winners for you.
We start the day with a fairly average 3yr old race for the girls and I like the look of the outsider of the field in MABSAM. Whilst it hasn’t got dazzling form the horses it has been beaten by aren’t terrible and this is a very average start to the day so the big odds would be worth considering. “I have just received word that this horse is likely to withdraw from this race in favour of the 1st at Randwick”. In the 2nd I can’t believe the price of MASTHEAD who ran superbly behind Foxwedge last time round. This horse has been mixing it with the big guns like Sepoy for much of its career and hasn’t lost any admirers. The step up to 1400m will suit him down to the ground and I am expecting a solid win here tomorrow. The 3rd race doesn’t interest me at all.
We step into the Group races next with the Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes over 2000m on the cards. It’s another difficult race with the early favourite a weakening New Zealander in SANGSTER who looked much more improved with the step up to 2000m last start. Hard to really get too confident on the horse as it had the pace on to get home fast last time round and I can’t really see that here. COSTLY COMMITMENT looks a much more appealing prospect at the each way odds. A previous winner here at Caulfield before a strong 3rd placing in its last start. It got out sprinted last time round but if it can find the 2000m it should be right in the finish. The big money has come for NIAGRA who won by 6 lengths at Canterbury last start. It is stepping up another 450m and did have an easy time out in front last time round so I’m a little cautious.
There were many who were hoping to see SEPOY take on Black Caviar this Spring but that won’t be happening now with Sepoy choosing to contest the Group 2 Caulfield Sprint whilst Black Caviar with take on the Group 2 Schweppes Stakes next weekend at Mooney Valley. Sepoy obviously has its hands all over this race and it’s hard to see him getting beaten. I’d be looking at BUFFERING, PERTURBO and MID SUMMER MUSIC to fill the minor positions. The 6th race of the day is the Betfair stakes and again we have a very big even field where the run of the race will most likely determine the winner here. Favourite LOVE CONQUERS ALL is likely to find the Caulfield straight a bit too short which doesn’t allow it time for its big grinding finish. Meanwhile PINWHEEL gets out to a backable price after a shocking start cost it any chance in the Rupert Clarke last time round. It has drawn wide here which is a concern but could be worth a small each way bet. LAUNAY is a good fresh horse but this is a tough ask. Would definitely be worth considering if the horse looks good in condition in the mounting yard. There appears to be some good pace in the this race so UTAH SAINTS is probably going to be doing it tough but on the other side it may suit VAREENA MISS who will be hitting the line hard.
The 7th race is the Group 3 David Jones Cup and surprise surprise we have another wide open field making our job just that little bit tougher. FORETELLER gets another mention and should be right at its prime over the 2000m. LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT appeared to find the 2400m a bit too far for it last time round. If that run hasn’t taken too much out of him I’d expect a big improvement here. You’ve gotta love the form line through PLATNIUM PASSION with a win over Herbert Power winner Shewan last time it stepped out on this track over the 2000m. MIDNIGHT MARTINI comes down the same form line and has to be seriously considered as well.
For the big race, the Group 1 Caulfield Cup over 2400m I have a couple of horses I am strongly leaning towards. It’s rare that someone doesn’t jump out of nowhere but the horses you have to include in your multiples are:
MIGHTY HIGH – Impressive stayer from Hong Kong who has shown enough in its 2 Australian starts to suggest it is ready to fire here
DECEMBER DRAW – Has been beating any horse that has been thrown in front o it. Definitely not considered a threat at the start of the year but seems to improve each week.
SAPTAPADI – I really liked its first Australian run since arriving from Ireland where it came from well back and wide to finish only a few lengths back.
NIWOT – This was my early pick for the Melbourne Cup and it needs to get another win to get up the order or entry to gain a spot. Still finishing races off but finding the distances too short. Stick with him
GREEN MOON – You had to be impressed with the run in the Newcastle Gold Cup which backed up its effort against December Draw the start previous. A real bolter who is too short for my liking but should be running on at the finish.
Definitely not worth going home straight after the Caulfield Cup as the Group 2 Tristarc is a race with some real talent on display. Many punters were disappointed that MORE JOYOUS didn’t fire first up at Mooney Valley when everyone was given a lesson by Sepoy. She just looked a little under done there and I think will be much fitter for the run and should turn the table on SISTER MADLY who beat it home in the same race. It does meet the horse 1 kg worse off but the extra 200m will go right in its favour as well. BOOKLET and I’M DISCREET aren’t without hope of causing a boil over either. In the last of the day there has been some real interest over Adelaide galloper AMY’S GLEN who has been a TopPunter Early Mail selection at Morphettville in the past. I’m not really a fan of taking horses who haven’t had a run at Caulfield but betting indicates there are a plenty who are feeling confident. PSYCHOLOGIST has a great record when racing fresh, undefeated in 2 starts previous. It’s never really lived up to the early hype surrounding the horse as a 2 yr old but it definitely had some talent as a youngster.
Tough day. Hard to find winners right across the country. Play sensible people