November 18th – Presidents Cup (Friday Four Ball)
I thought we were incredibly unlucky to not pick up both victories yesterday with Aaron Baddeley and Jason Day losing both the last 2 holes to end up with a tie against Dustin Johnson and Matt Kuchar.
We are sticking with the same pairing to beat the same pairing (A bit unusual for that to happen in this format) with Watson / Simpson taking on Els / Ishikawa again after beating them comfortably on day one. We are getting a slightly lower price today but I still believe there is plenty of value there. The 2nd bet that looks value is Adam Scott teaming up with Kyung-Tae Kim against the old heads in Phil Mickelson and Jim Furyk. Scott should be able to help Kim a lot better around the course and I think the price is very generous.
Our Selections are:
BUBBA WATSON / WEBB SIMPSON to beat Els / Ishikawa at $1.87 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)
ADAM SCOTT / KYUNG-TAE KIM to beat Mickelson / Furyk at $2.28 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Win)
November 16th – Presidents Cup Golf
The Presidents Cup golf kicks off tomorrow and it’s a strong field that takes place for both the INTERNATIONALS ($1.87) and the USA ($1.95) with many believing the local knowledge of the 5 Aussies selected being the deciding factor. I was a big fan of the Europeans to topple the Americans in the Ryder Cup and my first thought was for a similar result here until I thought more deeply into the selections that each side has picked. Greg Norman (Captain of the International Team) has selected a team with knowledge of the Royal Melbourne Course along with some new up and coming talent which appears to be a great mix, however, I think the USA team has a better balance. Players like Tiger, Mickelson, Stricker, Furyk, Toms are so used to eating up the pressure that comes from an event like this and I think they hold too much weight. Add to that the rookies they have picked are on fire at the moment in Webb Simpson, who dominated the later part of the 2011 season and Nick Watney, who won twice on the PGA Tour this year. In fact Watney really impressed me with his play in his Australian debut at the Aussie Open last weekend suggesting he has acclimatised very quickly to the windy conditions that he will get this week.
I will try and do an update on each days events as they come to hand but it can sometimes be difficult to be ready to go as soon as the pairings have been chosen and had time to review the previous rounds play.
Thursdays competition sees the players in a foursome format which means each team of two plays with one ball taking alternate shots. This is usually an event where prior experience is a huge advantage as communication and trust are tested to the limit. I really like the first USA pairing of BUBBA WATSON / WEBB SIMPSON ($2.06) who take on the old stager ERNIE ELS and young gun RYO ISHIKAWA ($2.26). Els has won at Royal Melbourne before but Watson and Simpson have been in great form recently and this looks a solid opening pick for me.
In match 2 I give the nod to GEOFF OGILVY / CHARL SCHWARTZEL ($2.02) over BILL HAAS / NICK WATNEY ($2.30) due to experience. However, as I stated I really liked the way Watney played last week and I’m not willing to take him on. In match 3 I was really surprised by the odds when AARON BADDELEY / JASON DAY ($2.08) take on DUSTIN JOHNSON / MATT MUCHAR ($2.26) as I thought the Aussies would’ve been much shorter. They have experience, form and the white hot putter of Baddeley on their side whilst the USA has to juggle the erratic Johnson with the consistent Kuchar who was pretty disappointing over the weekend. Putting will be such a huge factor this week and Aaron Baddeley would have to be one of my favourites for the highest points tally.
Match 4 is a very experienced foursome of PHIL MICKELSON / JIM FURYK ($2.08) taking on ROBERT ALLENBY / RETIEF GOOSEN ($2.26). Hard to find a winner here but should be a hard fought match. Maybe a Tie ($6.00)? Likewise I couldn’t separate DAVID TOMS / HUNTER MAHAN ($2.10) and KYUNG-TAE KIM / Y.E. YANG ($2.24) as all players can be up and down from time to time.
Finally Match 6 is a thriller with TIGER WOODS / STEVE STRICKER ($2.16) taking on ADAM SCOTT / KJ CHOI ($2.16). The bookies can’t split them and why would you want to. Tiger returned to form last weekend with a strong effort in the Australian Open and his record with Steve Stricker as partner is fantastic. Having said that Adam Scott has had his best season in a long time on the PGA Tour and KJ Choi is a master at the pairs format making this a great contest.
I make it 3 points each after day one
Our Selections are:
BUBBA WATSON / WEBB SIMPSON to beat Els / Ishikawa at $2.06 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)
AARON BADDELEY / JASON DAY to beat Johnson / Kuchar at $2.08 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)
November 3rd – Oaks Day Preview
A Melbourne Cup has come and gone and although we missed the chocolates on the big race many punters had a great day out with our 3 selections finishing 2nd, 2nd and 1st for a solid profit for the day. We move onto the 2nd last big race day of the carnival with the Group 1 Oaks for the 3yr old fillies being the feature event.
We get straight into the action with a very good looking bet in the 2nd race of the day in CLIQUES. This is a very impressive looking horse and showed its true colours with a dominant win at Kyneton last time round. Has found trouble a couple of times when visiting the big smoke but from the inside barrier tomorrow I think we will be getting in the collect queue nice and early.
When it comes time for the Oaks (Race 6) it gets really tough. Many of the favourites haven’t really shown me anything to suggest that the 2500m is in their repertoire suggesting that the race could be taken out by one of the lesser known horses. Often this race is set at a fairly swift tempo as these horses, with barely any racing under their belt, don’t know any better which turns it into a true staying test. I don’t see that in any of the favourite with the exception of RAVHEEL who hit the line better than the others last start when they were all blown away by Atlantic Jewel. GIOE, VITTORIA and PENTIMENTO all look way better value for me and would be a much smarter each way option.
TORAH was impressive winning on Cox Plate day against a strong field of horses and I can easily see the step up to 1800m being right in her grasp. I am a little concerned about the rise in weight which may test the young 3 yr old and for that reason it just misses out on the Early Mail spot. If you are having a good day on the punt though it’s probably worth a dig. PERTURBO looks nicely placed in the 8th race against a strong field. The 1000m is maybe a little skinny for it but I think it could find some nice cover and at the odds is worth taking the risk with a erratic favourite in MASTER HARRY.
Over in New South Wales we have the Hawkesbury Gold Cup being held and a really strong field is there to contest it this year. Really hard to see SOMEPIN ANYPIN getting beaten here but not keen to take on the $1.70 on offer with Hawkesbury being a really tricky circuit and there also has to be some question marks about it getting over comfortably from barrier 14. In the last favourite TITLE looks a very good chance but the price has got me scared again at $2.50. It’s a big weight to carry but this horse has got plenty of class on the others. Maybe it’s worth chucking a small multi on the 2 horses together to get you more realistic odds of around $4.30 and hope they both run up to their potential.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
1.00pm – Flemington Race 2 – 1. CLIQUES (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
5.10pm – Flemington Race 8 – 4. PERTURBO (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
1.40pm – Flemington Race 3 – 15. MISS OCTOPUSSY (Currently $13)