December 26th – Summer Cup Day Preview
Hope you all had an enjoyable Christmas with loved ones today. You should have had an extra little bonus for the day after we scored an incredible 4 winners from our 5 selections (The 5th horse ran 2nd) for a super day on the punt. We move to Boxing Day racing and we have some solid cards across the country with the feature race of the day being the Group 3 Summer Cup at Rosehill (The meeting has been transferred from the traditional Randwick meeting). Unfortunately that is a highlight of what is a fairly average race day. Usually this day attracts some quality fields and is a great day for punting but I think with the day falling so close to a Saturday meeting that many trainers opted to place their horses in on the weekend instead.
We start the day at race 3 which looks a match in 2 between BURNOUT and DAYMO and we find both at a decent price. I can’t see this being the quinella though as the chances of both will be dictated by the speed of the race with Daymo likely to get up on the pace and Burnout will sit back for one crack at them in the straight. That being said I think the value is with Burnout with a number of horses who prefer to race closer to the speed which will more than likely cause a solid tempo. Burnout also meets Daymo 2kgs better off after their last meeting.
We move forward to Race 6 and the Summer Cup and my top selection goes with SCOUTING WIDE who has shown great progression this preparation as Tim Martin gradually steps this horse up in distance clearly with the focus of this race in his plans. The horse is undefeated over this course and distance and a 5kg drop in weight from its last start 2nd is ideal. The value is there for us to get on board, however, you have to say that FULL PEAL will be tough to beat if it handles the move up from Victoria. The reason why I think it is vulnerable tomorrow though is because this will be its first run in Sydney and it has to step up another 400m from its last start.
Caulfield fails to impress in the early meetings until we get to race 5 which is a cracking race for the sprinters. I’m keen to see the return of THERE’S ONLY ONE who was super impressive moving through the grades last preparation. I think this horse has some real ability and is definitely one to watch in the coming weeks. I think it may find some of these a bit too zippy for it first up and am leaning towards ZEFTABA and AVIONICS as my top selections.
To the next race and we have another solid horse making its return to racing in MR MAKE BELIEVE who may find the track a little too firm to produce a top first up effort. Having said that it normally comes together quickly so a win would not surprise. SECOND EFFORT is another who we should keep an eye on after going for a spell after they found it had a respiratory infection last time round. Before that the horse was dominating some decent fields with 4 wins on the trot so you have to show it some respect.
TWO SUGARS gets us our only official bet of the day at Caulfield on the back of 3 wins on the trot and wins against horses it meets again tomorrow. It will probably have to work a little to get over from the wide barrier but the price is definitely right for us to get involved.
Morphettville tried hard with some big fields and possible chances but the confidence just isn’t there.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
2.25pm – Rosehill Race 3 – 1. BURNOUT (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
4.12pm – Rosehill Race 6 – 4. SCOUTING WIDE (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
4.35pm – Caulfield Race 7 – 1. TWO SUGARS (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
4.52pm – Rosehill Race 7 – 10. EARNEST ERNEST (Currently $17)
December 24th – Racing Preview
The form for tomorrow actually surprised me with some really good looking bets out there. I really expected not to find much but glad I spent the time going through the form with the same routine as many horses fell into the criteria for closer inspection. Most of the time when there is a Saturday field so close to Boxing Day the fields are weak and you feel like you are wasting your time.
A few of our early possibilities at Sandown have been passed by after not quite making the selection criteria for an Early Mail pick. We take until the 5th race of the day till we find our first be there with SONG OF THE BELL who produced a good effort first up over an unsuitable distance and having to work hard early. She will be much fitter for the run and back to the 1000m with a good draw I think presents good value. OFORAWESOME looks great value in the 6th and I was tempted to make it an each way selection, however, you have to be wary of the money around FLYINGCONI who has been backed from $13 into $5.50 and I there has been a lot of talk around the bottom weight ZERO TO SIXTY who has made an impression in its first 2 starts. Another who just misses selection even though you have to be impressed with its 2 career runs. The impressive thing for me with these runs is also what worries me here. Clearly unsuited by the short Caulfield straight which didn’t allow it enough time to finish will find a similar story here at the Sandown track.
To Canterbury and we get into the action with WINNING GLORY who I am backing up on after it just failed to run the distance last time round for us. I thought Nash Rawiller went too early at Rosehill and left it a sitting duck in the final 100m but the Canterbury track and a few kgs off will be definitely too its advantage. No surprise to see half the punting world on TIGER TEES tomorrow since it has racked up 5 wins from 7 starts and is in great form. A last start 2nd to Group 1 winning Atomic Force only pushed it higher up the ranks and I would expect this horse to shift into single figures by tomorrow so take the fixed odds while you can.
Doomben has seen plenty of bets go by the way side and once again it is a case of close but no cigar on many options. Funnily enough my first bet of the day is on SATCH in the 5th who I suggested was a possible bet on Wednesday when it was scratched. The reason it missed the Early Mail on Wednesday was the $1.70 price tag on its head which I didn’t think was value in a strong mid week race (As it turned out it didn’t matter with the scratching). However, here it definitely meets tougher opposition, but not by much and the price is much more generous. The listed Lough Neagh is definitely a highlight of the day with a field full of chances. Hard to really feel confident about any particular horse and many punters will probably just stick with their favourites. I’m torn between the bottom weights with MY DESTINY attempting to bring its Sydney form up north while STEEL ZIP looks ready to produce a big effort and this race looks well suitable.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
2.55pm – Morphettville Race 4 – 1. MOVING MONEY (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
3.05pm –Canterbury Race 4 – 3. WINNING GLORY (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
3.25pm – Sandown Race 5 – 4. SONG OF THE BELL (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
3.45pm – Canterbury Race 5 – 3. TIGER TEES (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
3.55pm – Doomben Race 5 – 7. SATCH (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
4.05pm – Sandown Race 6 – 2. OFORAWESOME (Currently $11)
4.26pm – Canterbury Race 6 – 6. ONE WAY TICKET (Currently $17)
4.50pm – Ascot Race 5 – 6. LAST CURTAIN (Currently $17)
December 12th – Dubai World Championship
The European Tour has its season ending tournament with the Dubai World Championship finalising the winner of the season long Race to Dubai. LUKE DONALD ($12.00) is the 2nd favourite to win this weekend but has an almost unassailable lead in the Race to Dubai. It’s an amazing season for Donald who looks certain to claim the money title in both the European and PGA Tour, a feat I haven’t heard of for a long time. Basically he would have to miss the cut and have RORY McILROY ($6.00) win. To make up the 800,00 euro difference in prize money he needs. The price for both McIlroy and WESTWOOD ($6.50) is incredibly short even though the pair are in good form and played well here last year finishing 5th and 3rd respectively. I couldn’t possibly taken them on at that price. MARTIN KAYMER ($15.00) showed some glimpses of form last weekend and has an incredible record when playing in Dubai. He failed to get the job done over the weekend here last time round but this is a typical Greg Norman designed course that requires a strong mental game and prior knowledge has always been a plus here.
Of the outsiders I would have to consider Y.E. YANG ($41.00) a serious contender with some solid performances in the past couple of months. Put that with a 13th place finish last year and he has to be good each way value. The other contender would be CHARL SCHWARZEL ($26.00) who looks back on track to start his winnings ways and put together a strong first and final round last year finishing middle of the pack.
Our Selections are:
MARTIN KAYMER to beat Paul Casey at $1.85 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)
CHARL SCWARTZEL to beat Louis Oosthuizen at $1.81 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)