January 28th – Horse Racing Preview

All eyes were on Mooney Valley  last night with super mare BLACK CAVIAR returning to racing to contest the Group 2 Australia Stakes. The win was the 17^th in its undefeated career and I can’t wait to see this horse take on the rest of the world.

We get straight into the action at Sandown with VOLANDO looking the goods in the 1^st race of the day. Although the mare has 60kg from the handicapper, Peter Moody has placed young apprentice Jake Duffy on board giving him a 3kg claim. This horse has been in great form this prep and finished a game 2^nd behind Flyingconi who was our TopPunter selection last weekend. There are some other nice looking races but just a couple of question marks ruled out a few options for us until the 7^th race of the day. HENWOOD is an easing favourite with the money coming for INSTALMENT who won the race last time they met. However, I think the tables will be turned again with Henwood faring better with the increases in weight and had its share of troubles last time round as well. And finally I am really keen to see how West Australian galloper LIKE AN EAGLE goes in its first appearance on the East Coast. It was very impressive last preparation with a strong finishing burst and could be one to follow in the coming weeks.

Canterbury looks a much tougher meeting with a number of short priced horses that all look vulnerable in their own way. The 5^th race definitely sparks some interest with some good form leading into it with the likes of NEWS ALERT and EIGHT BILLS in strong form along with the returning STEPS IN TIME which has some big wraps on it. Our only bet of the day is a race late when DUKE OF CORNWELL gets his chance in a much weaker race than he has come up against in the past couple of weeks. A nice claim from Sam Clipperton has the horse nicely weighted and ready to win.

We have an incredibly wet track to deal with up north at Doomben and if they get any more rain they are in huge danger of being called off. I tread very lightly in conditions like this but MISS BARWANG looks a strong shot in the 2^nd race of the day. Hopefully the track isn’t too chopped up early on and the race will be a true test. This horse has shown a liking for the soft surfaces with 2 wins from 2 attempts and is in good form lately as well. If it makes it to the 7^th race of the day it will be worth watching with a number of quality horses running around. I’d probably lean towards WHATEVERWHENEVER at this stage but I’d say I’ll just be a spectator here.

To South Australia and one of our favourites in STIRLING GROVE goes round again. It’s found an annoying habit of just missing the price recently and although tempted the $1.80 price tag just seems a bit of a stretch especially when up against local OUTLANDISH LAD who has been in good form.

It may pay to watch GREEN SUPREME in the Wellington Cup at Trentham today (2.26pm) too. This horse looks to be turning into a great distance horse and with solid results in this race and the Auckland Cup (run over 3200m) will probably have connections aiming for the 2012 Melbourne Cup.   

We finish the day in the West with CAVALLO PAZZO who looks a great chance to finish the day off in a winning way. This horse has won 2 on the trot and is well weighted and has the experienced Peter Knuckey on board.

Our Early Mail Selections are:

12.50pm – Sandown Race 1 – 1. VOLANDO (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)

2.00pm –Doomben Race 2 – 3. MISS BARWANG (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)

4.30pm – Canterbury Race 6 – 4. DUKE OF CORNWELL (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)

4.50pm – Sandown Race 7 – 9. HENWOOD (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

7.20pm – Ascot Race 6 – 2. CAVALLO PAZZO (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)

Our Best Roughie Selections are:

5.50pm – Canterbury Race 8 – 12. PEPIN HOAKS (Currently $26)

Horse Racing
28 January 2012 comment

January 21st – KFC Big Bash

It’s down to the business end of the season in the Big Bash with Semi Final action tonight and tomorrow. We haven’t been getting too involved this season but both semi finals have presented some nice looking odds for the favoured team in each leg.

Tonight the PERTH SCORCHERS ($1.78) take on the MELBOURNE STARS ($2.05) at the WACA. The Scorchers have been in great form the whole way through the competition and although they suffered a loss to Hobart in their last start they had little motivation with a top spot on the table in the bag. Meanwhile the Stars needed to win their last 3 on the trot just to earn a spot tonight and have been playing some decent cricket. Whilst the Stars have the mastermind Shane Warne to guide them around the park they lack the experience that has helped the Scorchers through the season with a great batting line up with Hershel Gibbs, Marcus North and Sean Marsh leading the way. Equally their young bowling attack of Coulter-Nile and Edmondson has been strengthened with the return of veteran Brad Hogg who is in form at the right time of the competition.

The other match looks even more lopsided even though the odds don’t say so with the HOBART HURRICANES ($1.72) taking on the SYDNEY SIXERS ($2.12) at Belrieve, Tasmania. Again I think the team without the huge momentum has the advantage with Hobart looking a strong side throughout the season which finished with a good win over the Renegades at home. Shah and Birt have continued their run scoring all season finishing 1^st and 2^nd on the total runs list. Meanwhile the Sixers have won 3 in a row but have been on the fortunate end of a couple of rain affected matches and I question the strength of their side especially against Hilfenhaus, Naved-Ul Hasan and Doherty who have managed to take regular wickets throughout each match to place a strangle hold on their opposition.

Our Selections this week are:

HOBART HURRICANES to beat Sydney Sixers at $1.72 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

Cricket
21 January 2012 comment

January 13th – Magic Millions Race Day Preview

The big racing heads north for the Magic Millions Carnival on the Gold Coast this weekend. As always the carnival has attracted some good fields and the weather is trying to hold strong for a great weekend of racing. They are expecting some light drizzle on Friday afternoon and Saturday morning but I’d expect the track to be in top condition for the day. The only issue is the track itself has been bogeyed by some shady characters over the years that make it a place I rarely bet at unless feeling very confident. It’s a real shame as this carnival is one that I have never attended due to that reason and I’m probably the one missing out. Having said that the stories I’ve heard over the years never revolve around this carnival but your week to week racing so if you’re looking forward to the day don’t let that stop you.

The 1^st race of the day is a huge field of maidens which does not spark much interest for racing unless you enjoy playing pin the tail on the donkey. Having said that I was surprised to see the 3^rd emergency in WIN FOR LAYLA at such big odds ($26.00). If it manages to get a run it could really put on a show. Its drawn a great barrier and well weighted, good jockey in Tim Bell and raced against some quality animals without being too disgraced. The 2^nd race of the day looks to be settled between SPIRIT OF FLATLEY, GRIFFON and STRATFORD. I’m a bit concerned about the betting drift early in the week on Spirit of Flately as I feel its shown some real progression this preparation and the harder surface is in its favour. Likewise I have question marks over Stratford who’s only run on a harder surface wasn’t that impressive so no doubt it will be praying for rain. The consistent one in the field is clearly Griffon who has produced 2 great runs this time round on wet surfaces and its record on the better tracks is fine. No starts at the Gold Coast is a bit of a worry considering the tightness of the track but surely trainer Robert Heathcote has given him a few runs around to get used to it.

We skip the 3^rd race and head to the 4^th and the Magic Millions Sprint over 1000m and a tough field. There look to be many chances here and although favourite SEEK AND FIND looks to have a bit of quality and form on them I don’t think the Gold Coast track suits his run home style which was shown up in his last race here. Even though he was given a golden passage up the straight he failed to gun down the winner, although the 59kgs wouldn’t have helped. NUPTSE has plenty of admirers with 4 wins from 9 starts but I feel she’s been well placed in her races and wins against average fields, which this isn’t. WARRIOR GIRL is a track specialist and usually races well fresh. Forget its last run when it copped some interference that saw it pushed out to last when beaten by Nuptse.

We start to move onto the big races with the 2yo Magic Millions Classic always a great one for action chasing the $2,000,000 in prize money. I am a huge fan of SIZZLING, who looked the real deal in winning its maiden race by 6 lengths late last year. Since then it has jumped out of the clouds for a pair of 2^nd place finishes doing its best work when the race was over. This is a huge concern for the Gold Coast track and connections will have to consider racing the horse much closer to the pace with the advantage of a better barrier draw this week. Conversely early favourite DRIEFONTEIN deserves to be favourites with a perfect barrier draw for a horse who is sure to roll straight to the front and attempt to dictate terms as it did against Sizzling last time round. Hard to really find a danger to those 2 even though there is some solid form in amongst the others. I’d probably include SNIPTZU in your multiples if that’s the way you like to play.

The 6^th and next race is the Guineas over 1400m and its probably the toughest race of the day to pick. If you’re managing to have a good day by now then go have a break for a bit. Have a bite to eat, get in the beer line or chat to some strangers as this race spells trouble. For the diehard punters I’d lean ever so slightly in favour of EASY RUNNING, although if the Sydney trained SAFUSA and HAPPY HUSSY both handle the track on their first visit they will be tough to beat.

The good racing continues in the 7^th race of the day with the Magic Millions Cup well supported by the older horses. CATAPULTED assumes favouritism on the back a great 3 length win down the straight at Flemington last time round. There are many differences here and you’d want to be a huge fan of the horse to get your cash on him tomorrow. LATIN NEWS rarely runs a bad race and has been supported in early betting again suggesting he is ready to break a string of 2^nd placings that has peppered his current campaign. MY DESTINY has made it 4 wins on the trot and is showing the gritty strength it takes to be a great horse when the challenge is set down in the straight.

The “Stayers” Cup is the penultimate race over the day and I put the name of the race in quotations as the race is only over 1800m. Not much of a staying test! Sydney Galloper KONTIKI PARK takes favouritism after a strong win in its first Queensland effort but I’m not as convinced here. There are a number of horses we have supported in recent weeks to great success which represent much better value. RACING HEART, HIDDEN KISSES and SATCH are all in double figures and been racing well. Whilst they haven’t registered a win at the Gold Coast track they have at least had a run here which puts them at a huge advantage to the favourite.

Our Early Mail Selections are:

1.15pm – Flemington Race 2 – 2. ROSES IN THE GLEN
(Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

3.15pm – Flemington Race 5 – 3. BELGIETTO
(Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

3.35pm – Rosehill Race 5 – 8. ALMA’S FURY
(Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)

4.15pm – Rosehill Race 6 – 9. BELLO (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

5.10pm – Ascot Race 2 – 2. THE WEAPON (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)

Our Best Roughie Selections are:

1.05pm – Gold Coast Race 1 – 19. WIN FOR LAYLA (Currently $26)

3.05pm – Gold Coast Race 4 – 7. WARRIOR GIRL (Currently $17)

4.45pm – Morphettville Race 7 – 6. GENEROUS BEAU (Currently $13)

5.15pm – Flemington Race 8 – 10. KASANE (Currently $17)

Horse Racing
13 January 2012 comment

January 11th – PGA and European Tour Previews

The golf season has begun again with the European Tour in South Africa whilst the PGA Tour goes to Hawaii. The Joburg Open has always put together a strong field and this year is a bit of an exception with a few of the bigger names not attending. There is one player who stands out miles in front of his rivals in CHARL SCHWARTZEL ($4.33) who has won this event comfortably the past 2 years and is in incredible form with finishes of 12^th,9^th,4^th and 5^th in his past 4 European Tour events. Coming in fresh of a few weeks break over Christmas and the New Year I think Charl is a very good chance to make it 3 in a row here but unfortunately so do the bookies who have opened him at a Tiger like price of $4.33 to win the tournament. Funnily enough that is still tempting as it is hard to see him not figuring in the finish on Sunday but I think the safer option is to back him for the place and be happy with the $1.73 on offer (Sportsbet.com and IASBet.com). I also like the look of DANNY WILLET ($26.00) and THOMAS AIKEN ($15.00) to win their respective groups (Available on Sportsbet.com.au) following a good record at this tournament along with nice finishes of 7^th and 14^th respectively at the African Open last week.

On the PGA Tour we have the Sony Open in the beautiful Waialae Country Club in Honolulu Hawaii. It’s always been tough to get a gauge of where some players are at this early in the season and often many of the big names are trying new equipment, swings etc so they are ready for the big money later in the year. Tournament favourite STEVE STRICKER ($8.50) is clearly using this time of the year to get some form on the board after a fairly ordinary 2011. A win last week sees him come in a very short favourite and based on the fact this is generally a course for the best ball strikers you’d find it hard to argue. You can couple that with a 9^th place finish here last year. My top selection however goes with KJ CHOI ($15.00) who is a former champion around here and had a solid 2011 campaign even though he didn’t fare so well missing the cut here in 2011. I’m willing to forgive that as he just couldn’t get things going there last time round but then his season really took off. A 5^th place finish at the Tournament of Champions (Behind Stricker) last week suggests he is coming into this with his game in the right spot. The other good looking bet is a fairly unknown golfer in MARK WILSON ($41.00) who has had a great start to the year at this course the past 2 years with a 20^th in 2010 followed up with a victory here in 2011. An 18^th place finish in a strong field last week suggests he is hitting the ball well and ready to defend his crown.

Our Selections this week are:

CHARL SHWARTZEL to finish in the Top 5 Overall in the Joburg Open at $1.73(Sports Managed Fund 15% Bet)

DANNY WILLET to win his group (Havret, Van Der Walt, Grace and Otto) at $3.75(Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

THOMAS AIKEN to win his group (Goosen, Coetzee, Mulroy and Van Zyl) at $4.33(Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

MARK WILSON to beat Jerry Kelly in the Sony Open at $1.90

(Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

KJ CHOI to beat Zach Johnson in the Sony Open at $1.90

(Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

Golf
11 January 2012 comment