September 30th – NRL and AFL Grand Final Preview
Football Finals Fever is all over the country with the AFL and NRL Grand Finals on Saturday and Sunday respectively.
In the AFL the 2 most consistent sides of the year are competing and many predicted throughout the year. However, the big money has been for the 2nd ranked side throughout the year with GEELONG CATS ($1.70-$1.85, best price with www.iasbet.com) who have been in much better form in recent times. COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES ($2.00-$2.10, best price with www.tab.com.au) have been the favourites since winning the Grand Final last season with a strong start to the year that saw them dominate everyone they came across. In fact their only 2 loses for the year have come against the Cats and one of those was in a fair amount of controversy due to a play on ruling. The 2nd loss was far more devastating with the Cats thumping the Magpies by 96 points only a month ago which is when the cracks started to appear. More cracks showed when last weekend it appeared that Hawthorn had smothered the Magpies and looked certain for a victory before a miracle comeback to win in the dying minutes bring their legendary coach Mick Malthouse to tears. The bookies are saying the money has been 13 to 1 in favour of the Cats which seems ridiculously high for my liking. I honestly believe that there would’ve been some huge money placed on the Magpies throughout the year and the bookies need to even out the stakes by getting as many people on board the Cats to avoid a large loss. I can definitely see how many would jump on board the Cats bandwagon but I still feel the experience of the Magpies will be a telling factor and they will have learnt from recent matches where they have been strangled in the middle of the field. Malthouse will have been conjuring up a plan to counteract the tactics of Geelong since the defeat a month ago and I expect them to get over the line….just.
In the NRL there would be few who would’ve predicted either the MANLY SEA EAGLES ($1.45-$1.50, best price with www.tab.com.au) or the NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS ($2.68-$2.70, best price with www.sportsbet.com.auand www.iasbet.com) let alone picking them as the Grand Final Quinella. Most of the good money is on the Sea Eagles who have been a solid unit for many weeks now and arguably were the best team for the year behind the Melbourne Storm who were bundled out by the Warriors last weekend. Meanwhile the Warriors are on the crest of a wave that has seen them knock off a West Tigers outfit who many claimed had the goods to win the crown before flicking minor premiers the Melbourne Storm. Last weekend’s game against the Storm was a clinical display of a side that is well drilled and clearly had learnt from their loss against Brisbane in week 1 of the finals. For mine you will have a fair indication of where this match will go in the first 20 minutes of the game. I believe the weakness in the Sea Eagle side is when their forwards are attacked with pace that sees them struggle to get over the advantage line. I think if the Warriors bring a similar game plan that saw them choke the Storm for yards by getting in the face of the Manly side early they may panic them into searching too wide too early. If not the Manly side has a classy backline that possess a multitude of attacking weapons to strike from. I think the odds are too skewed for my liking and therefore my favoured option would be the Warriors by 1-12 points in a low scoring affair but you have to respect that Manly are and deserve to be the favourites.
Our bets this week are:
COLLINGWOOD to beat Geelong by 1-39 points at $2.75 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
Either the MANLY SEA EAGLES or NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS to win by less than 6.5 points at $2.85 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
LuxBet Promotion
LuxBet is offering a great promotion for the NRL and AFL finals series with $2.00 lines fo all games. Most betting agencies offer between $1.87-$1.91 but this promotion means you are getting the toss of the coin odds for every bet you place giving you a huge edge. Its a great time to join with some fantastic joining bonuses as well.
May 9th – AFL
We haven’t had an AFL bet this season as our AFL expert hasn’t checked in this year but I believe I have found some great odds on today’s match. The Sydney Swans are top of the table and been in stunning form but come up against the defending premiers Geelong In what should be a cracking match. The Cats have been mixing up their form this year with some stunning performances added in with some substandard efforts. This could be attributed to a few key injuries that they haven’t had to deal with in the past and today is no exception. Both Gary Ablett and Matt Scarlet need to undergo fitness tests and although both are expected to play I have to doubt what level they are at.
To the odds and I am expecting this as usual to be a hard fought tackle fest and most likely low scoring. For this reason I am amazed that Sydney have been given the odds of $2.00 with 20.5 points head start which just seems ludicrous. I am aware of Geelong stunning record at Skilled Park winning their last 19 matches there but I think the chances of the Swans being within 20 points is better than even money.
Our Bet today is:
SYDNEY SWANS with 20.5 points head start to beat Geelong Cats at $2.00 on SportsBet (Sports Managed fund 10% bet)
AFL Season Review +$726
We started our AFL tipping on July 17th with our guest expert tipster coming on board to provide tips for the TopPunter subscribers. As the season progressed we included both match betting and betting on individuals for most disposals and most goals for some good results. We had a lot of success out of Dane Swan for most possessions and had our biggest win of the season backing Geelong at $4.10 a few weeks out from the Grand Final to win. Our worst result was in the Brownlow Medals after backing the ignored by selectors Dane Swan as the brilliance of Gary Ablett towards the end of the season saw him really get away from the pack.
Having fine-tuned our tipping with our expert during the season we produced an overall profit of $726 which is a good result for the final rounds of the season that included a few upsets. We hope you have enjoyed this seasons tips and made the most of some of our bets bets. The 2010 season holds a lot of promise and we look forward to doing it all again with you.
September 22nd – AFL
Well it has come time to lay our Geelong bet off. We got in at the right time and secured Geelong for $200 at $4.10 (Potential Profit $820). Geelong have now come in to $1.64 which means we can get our bet back and have a freebie on the final.
As we stood to win $820 if Geelong won we can lay off our $200 bet plus another $58 (Total $258) for a liability of only $168 meaning if St Kilda wins we end up even for the season but if Geelong win we collect a huge $658.
In my opinion I do think Geelong will win after they really switched on last week and destroyed their rivals in an easy win. Meanwhile St Kilda had to work hard just to get to the final and will have had some emotion drained out of them. However, I do feel the $1.64 price is a little skinny and I certainly wouldn’t be backing them at that price. I would expect that Gary Ablett jnr will be pumped after finally receiving recognition for his efforts and will be everywhere in a bid to claim the Norm Smith Medal for best on ground in the Grand Final. For the record he is $5.80 on Betfair
September 11th – AFL (Running Total +$268)
Short and sweet this week
I have a feeling we are going to see a lot of goals tonight.
$100 on Jonathan Brown Brisbane Most Goals – $3.50
$100 on Over totals game score 183.5 Western Bulldogs v Brisbane Lions at $1.85
**Just a reminder we already have our long term best on Geelong winning the premiership and Dane Swan for the Brownlow
September 5th – AFL (Running Total +$268)
Its finals time and there a re so many betting options. I am going to stick to some proven winners and through in some exotics.
$100 on ABLETT Gary (GEEL) 2.60 Most Disposals A
$200 on Over 195.5 Points 1.85 Geelong v Western Bulldogs
$100 on First Team to 25 points (Geelong are notorious slow starters) Western Bulldogs $1.85
Results
Geelong came out of the blocks fast and proved their dominance right from the opening bounce. As we predicted last weekend they are a real threat to St Kilda for the crown this year. We fell short of the total points as well with only 170 scored but Ablett did manage to get the most disposals in his group so we got some money back on the night.
Loss of $140 on the night
September 1st – AFL (Running Total +$408)
For the first weekend we don’t hit one of our specials with Ablett and Mooney narrowly going down while Dane Swan also missed out
However, we were right on the mark with the Over 185.5 points result on the Carlton vs Adelaide game with a massive 280 points scored.
All that results in a loss of -$80 on the weekend.
More Bets
I think there is some value in the Premiership and Brownlow Markets.
Firstly the Premiership market sees a very open affair and i think if you pick correctly you could make some decent profit or be able to lay your bet off after the first weekend of finals for a free bet on the winner.
The current market has St Kilda ($3.55), Geelong ($4.10), Collingwod ($5.10) and Western Bulldogs ($6.20) out of the others the only one i could possibly recommend would be Carlton ($48) purely for the reason if they can beat Brisbane at home (Who looked shaky last weekend) there price would drop dramatically at you could get a very easy lay and again a free bet.
However, the team i am looking at is Geelong. All year the Cats have done what they have needed to and seem to be suffering a little for being on top for so long. However, champion players find their groove when the big money is on the line and i would expect them to be back on their game against the Western Bulldogs who probably did no favours for themselves beating Geelong 2 weeks ago as that will only fuel the fire more.
In the Brownlow Medal there is always a short favourite, this year(and also for the past 3 years) is Gary Ablet ($3.25). for the past 3 years i have predicted Ablet to win the crown but has always fallen short in the votes suggesting that although regarded as one of the games best players his efforts and not viewed as highly by the umpires who cast the votes. This could possibly be because he is epected to perform so highly each week and if someone else performs above their standard (But still less than Ablet’s) they may recieve the top votes. Just a theory but it’s proved true for many years.
My bet is looking towards this years real star in the disposals count in Dane Swan ($6.20). He has really come of age this year and been an absolute bal magnet. The fact that he hasn’t ranked as highly as his close rivals in the market in Ablet, Chris Judd ($9.00) and Adam Goodes ($9.60) just makes his odds even more tasty. I also think there is some value in Simon Black ($18)who has been his consistant self and has always polled well in the votes suggesting he is well liked by most umpires.
My bets are:
$200 on Geelong Cats to win the AFL Premeirship at $4.10
$10 on Carlton Blues to win the AFL Premiership at $48
$100 on Dane Swan to win the Brownlow Medal at $6.20
$20 on Simon Black to win the Brownlow Medal at $18
August 29th – AFL (Running Total +$488)
Couple of Bets to look at this week
$50 on MOONEY Cameron (GEEL) 4.00 Leading Goalscorer ( Geelong just have to win to get their season back on track and Mooney will be sent the ball all day)
$100 on ABLETT Gary (GEEL) 2.20 Most Disposals A ( Because Geelong need some form, Ablett will be everywhere today)
$100 on SWAN Dane (COLL) 3.00 Most Disposals A (Our old friend and Brownlow special is at those backable odds again)
$200 on Over 185.5 Points 1.85 Carlton vs Adelaide ( This will be a hell of a game. It also throws up the dual for most goals between the man going for the Coleman Medal, Brendan Fevola- leading by 6 from Jonathon Brown- and the man who has been is great form Jason Porplyzia. Fev is at $2.10 and Porplyzia at $6. Too close to split)
August 23rd – AFL (Running Total +$488)
Our AFL expert just keeps rolling along with another strong performance this week.
A brilliant Friday night saw Gary Ablett have the most possesions by a country mile along with the total points comfortably over 200.5. That was followed by a little disapointment with Simon Black having his ball avoidance shoes on while the very consistant Sam Mitchell falling just one possession short. Kurt Tuppet just couldn’t get his hands on the ball in the right areas and finished the game with only 1 goal.
Still a tidy profit of $110 for the weekend
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