Tonight the PERTH SCORCHERS ($1.78) take on the MELBOURNE STARS ($2.05) at the WACA. The Scorchers have been in great form the whole way through the competition and although they suffered a loss to Hobart in their last start they had little motivation with a top spot on the table in the bag. Meanwhile the Stars needed to win their last 3 on the trot just to earn a spot tonight and have been playing some decent cricket. Whilst the Stars have the mastermind Shane Warne to guide them around the park they lack the experience that has helped the Scorchers through the season with a great batting line up with Hershel Gibbs, Marcus North and Sean Marsh leading the way. Equally their young bowling attack of Coulter-Nile and Edmondson has been strengthened with the return of veteran Brad Hogg who is in form at the right time of the competition.

The other match looks even more lopsided even though the odds don’t say so with the HOBART HURRICANES ($1.72) taking on the SYDNEY SIXERS ($2.12) at Belrieve, Tasmania. Again I think the team without the huge momentum has the advantage with Hobart looking a strong side throughout the season which finished with a good win over the Renegades at home. Shah and Birt have continued their run scoring all season finishing 1^st and 2^nd on the total runs list. Meanwhile the Sixers have won 3 in a row but have been on the fortunate end of a couple of rain affected matches and I question the strength of their side especially against Hilfenhaus, Naved-Ul Hasan and Doherty who have managed to take regular wickets throughout each match to place a strangle hold on their opposition.

Our Selections this week are:

HOBART HURRICANES to beat Sydney Sixers at $1.72 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

In the Cricket we had backed UMAR AKMAL to be the top scorer for Pakistan for the series. He lead going in the final test from Salmon Butt but when Butt ran Akmal out inth e first innings for 8 whilst he went on to score a 100 our money was gone.

In the golf we got 1 out 3 head to head matches in Europe with DARREN CLARKE the only winner. Meanwhile on the PGA Tour we had more bad luck when we looked certain to clean sweep our 3 head to head bets till RORY SABBATINI 3 over in the final round against Angel Cabrera’s 2 under to fall short by 1 shot. ROBERT ALLENBY and STUART CINK won their head to head matches to keep the money coming in. However, the biggest tragedy was our Big 7 against the field bet which looked certain to collect but in the end fell just short with RYAN PALMER getting all the luck with a poor chip shot on the last that hit the pin when certain to fly well past the hole. The resulting easy birdie putt meant Allenby had to sink an 8ft putt to tie and he missed. In fact we finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the overall standings and i really feel hard done by.

Finally the weekend ended on a positive note when we sent the tip out to all subscribers to get on board the NEW YORK JETS to win the Superbowl when they trailed 7-0 against the San Diego Chargers and had blown out to $50 for the big prize. As we stated the Jets were playing well and they came home to win 17-14 and move on to the next round. Their price was also smashed in on Betfair to $9.60 leaving many options open to guarentee a profit on the result.

The weather report says fine conditions for the rest of the test so we shouldn’t get beaten by the rain this time round.

Our Bet is:

PAKISTAN to beat Australia in the 2^nd test at $1.50 on Betfair (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

We were harshly dealt with in Michael Clarke not being given the opportunity to outscore Ricky Ponting with Ponting sending in a night watchman (Nathan Hauritz) then declaring when Clarke was going along nicely on 28 not out. I guess thats punting for you!

These results back up our previous weekend results where we had all 4 of our head to head matches resulting in winners in the South African Open (Golf)

Lets hope our good fortune continues this weekend!

Australia vs Pakistan

At the MCG there is some decent value around on the Aussies and a short price on the draw due to the expecting foul weather. I still think the Aussies are good value at $1.80 but i’m not keen to touch it after rain has ruined a few good bets we’ve had recently. It’s funny how people jump all over the draw when the weather is predicted to be bad when bad weather also makes it much harder for batting as the ball swings more and the pitch becomes unpredictable.

In the series markets there is some good value in the Pakistan Series leading run scorers. I watched a lot of the Pakistan vs New Zealand test series and was really impressed with the debut of Umar Akmal who batted without fear and scored very well averaging over 60 in his first series. His brother Kamran Akmal has been a regular fixture in the Pakistan team since 2002 and has also found some good form in recent times with the bat. The Betfair markets hasn’t really setlled yet although you can get $13.50 about Kamran where as for Umar the best value is SportsBet who has him listed at $5.50.

I struggle to find a standout in the Australian team. Simon Katich ($4.60) has been very solid of late and wouldn’t be a bad option if you felt you had to have a bet. You couldn’t posssibly back Ricky Ponting with his injury that may see him miss the 1st test. A good player of spin will be fairly important as Danish Kaneria is a quality bowler and will probably be the leading wicket taker for the Pakistani’s so that brings Michael Clarke ($6.20) heavily into contention.

South Africa vs Pakistan

In Durban i am really keen to get all over South Africa to topple England in the 2nd test. We only just missed the money in the first test when England held on with 1 wicket to spare for a draw. South Africa would come out of the test match feeling very confident that they had the better of the test and would be keen to turn the tables on the Poms. South Africa also are likely to be strengthend in their bowling attacks with Dale Steyn expected to come back into the side. Meanwhile England are in disaray with their line-up with the struggling performances of Ian Bell and Alastair Cook whilst their bowling attack struggled thoughout the test.

We’ll have a couple of small bets here.

$100 on UMAR AKMAL to be the leading run-scorer for Pakistan in the series at $5.50 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

$40 on KAMRAN AKMAL to be the leading run-scorer for Pakistan in the series at $13.50 on Betfair (Sports Managed Fund 2% Bet)

$200 on SOUTH AFRICA to beat England in the 2nd test at $2.74 on Betfair(Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

I’ve played a little bit of cricket in my time and England have made the common error (my belief) of using the night watchman to see out the final few overs at the end of day 4.  Yes it protects a batsman at the end of the day when conditions could be at their worst but what it does in this situation is it provided the South Africans with an easy early wicket which has got them pumped up and ready to charge. They have then picked up another wicket with Cook falling to Harris as i type this.

Their is some weather in the area and i am hoping we don’t have the same situation we did in the New Zealand vs Pakistan test but i am willing to take the chance with the odds on offer. With England 3 for 33 and no chance of chasing the 364 runs required for victory i can see the Afrricans going on the full assault all day without fear of leaking runs. 75 overs remain and 7 wickets are needed. The tail will struggle to handle Harris and Morkel on a pitch doing crazy things.

Our bet is

$200 on South Africa to win the 1st test against England at $2.28 on Betfair (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

Imagine you layed (backing them not to win) the Aussies at $1.40 and wanted to risk $100 meaning your profit should they not win would be $250. Now the Aussies have gone out to $2.00 you have 3 options.

1. Back the Aussies for the $100 stake you were risking on the lay meaning if the Aussies now win you break even but if they lose or draw you make $155+.
2. You back the Aussies so that you even all your profits out so no matter the result you make the same profit. To do this you need to back the Aussies for $195+. Your profit for the match will be $65+ no matter the result.
3. You can back the Aussies so that the only way you win is if they win. For this you need to back the Aussies for $250. This means if the Aussies win you make $145 but if they lose or draw you break even.

Good luck with it all.

On a side note I think the value in Dwayne Bravo being the top West Indian scorer is great value at $15. He should love this pitch if he survives the early balls and gets settled

For those who followed the tips for the Alfred Dunhill Championship at Leopard Creek you had the opportunity to back and lay everyone of the suggested golfers and make a profit. Charl Schwartzel was the highest placed of the 4 with a runner-up finish and it should have been win had he not made 2 ridiculous errors on the final day costing him valuable shots. For the rest of the day he was flawless and I am amazed he didn’t win. We have now followed him for a number of years and he is really proving a gold mine for us. Of our other selections Robert Rock was at $70 at the start of the tournament and finished 4^th. Rafael Cabrera-Bello looked on song in the 1^st and 2^nd rounds but just couldn’t keep it going (He was a bit erratic). Ernie Els was running 2^nd coming into the final day but had terrible trouble with every part of his game. It was a day to forget for him .

In our cricket bet I was amazed that Daniel Vettori (who I rate very highly as a player and captain) went very defensive in the 2^nd innings I guess in a move to limit any runs he would have to chase on the final day. What resulted was Pakistan given an easy time batting within themselves before the Kiwis came back late on the final day to set up a thrilling finish. In the end they needed 210 off 41 overs and got off to a flying start at 0 for 90 off 18 before rain finished the test off. I have no doubt had the rain not arrived they would have won the test and that is definitely one that got away.

In the cricket today Australia take on the West Indies for the 3^rd and final test. The Adelaide draw will have fired up an Australian side who won’t treat the Windies as lightly this time round. The Perth pitch would have suited both sides with the curator suggesting it is getting back towards its old form of hard and fast. I was very keen to jump on board the Aussies again until the injuries came in. Australia have lost Peter Siddle (To go along with losing Ben Hilfenhaus before the 2^nd test) and instead of bringing in an experienced paceman to help the erratic Mitchell Johnson and the inexperienced Doug Bollinger they have gone for the rookie Clint McKay. While I think McKay has a lot of talent and this pitch is a great place for a paceman to debut I really feel Stuart Clark was the smarter option. Add to that Nathan Hauritz who has been very up and down in recent test and has injured his bowling finger. The Aussie selectors have gone with 20 year old future start Steve Smith who’s leg spin is a long way off being good and it will be an interesting debut should he make it. This line up gives me no confidence of Australia getting the 20 wickets required to win. The only positive for Australia is that the Windies have their own injury concerns with Shiv Chanderpaul and Adrian Barath unlikely to take their place in the Windies batting line up which is a huge loss.

The $1.40 is way too skinny and I am tempted to lay them at that price and look to back them later on at a higher price ($1.80 – $2.00). This is very probable as if the Windies win the toss they will like batting on the fast surface and could set a decent score. Also if they bowl first future star Kemar Roach will trouble the Aussie batsmen.

We also had great results in our 2 big sports bets with AUSTRALIA working at building a lead in the 2nd Test against the West Indies. Even though the West Indies have bowled well this morning to get 2 wickets the Aussies have a clear plan to keep the score ticking over and they have a long batting line up of players who can score runs at a fast rate and have a love of this ground. Expect the Aussies to have around a 100 run lead by tonight.

In the golf we jumped on ADAM SCOTT who was trailing the white hot Stuart Appleby by 2 shots. Scott played brilliantly in round 3 bar the one blemish of back-to-back bogeys on 15 and 16 before finishing well to take a 2 stroke lead into todays round. As we stated his coolness on the greens is important as to is Appleby’s nervousness when the pressure is on. Appleby wass very lucky to be within 2 shots after the way he played in round 2. Scott then went on to record a dominant performance in the final round and never really looked in danger. A 10% bet and a big win for our managed fund backing him at $3.65

Our bets are:

$400 on Australia to win the 2nd test against the West Indies at $1.65 on Betfair (Sports Managed Fund 20% Bet)