November 24th – Cricket (Australia vs West Indies)
Well summer is fast approaching and we are all set for the first test in Australia. The pitch as always looks fantastic at the GABBA and the West Indies have solved recent money problems to field a full strength team.
On paper and with the bookies this does still look a real mismatch and id find it hard to let anyone convince me it won’t be, however, i would say the Aussies have been less than impressive since their tests against South Africa last year (including a 2nd Ashes loss).
The Windies have had their fair share of drama since arriving with Chris Gayle flying home to be with his sick mother (Although he is expected to arrive back tomorrow), Ramnaresh Sarwan has got a mystery infection but again expected to play while the Windies may strike bowler in Jerome Taylor didn’t play the opening tour match due to being stiff and sore.
I do think Australia will win and win well and to be honest the $1.29 offered on Betfair is pretty juicy with the only drama being this very inconsistant weather we’ve had in recent times. To be honest though since the serious introduction of 20/20 cricket run-rates have increased and the likely hood of draws is decreasing.
Current odds see Australia at $1.29 to win the first test while West Indies are $13.50. The draw is paying $6.20
I’m not going to touch any of this though and instead am looking at the series batsmen and the 2 favourites standout as supreme selections. RICKY PONTING has found some good form of late in the one-dayers and has a love affair with the GABBA ground and is well known for hitting a 100 in the first innings of a test series there. In fact the last times the West Indies visited Australia in 2005 Ponting smashed 149 and 104* in his 2 innings in Brisbane.
Meanwhile from the West Indies it is very hard to go past the rock SHIVNARINE CHANDERPAUL. Chanderpaul consistantly provides the glue for the West Indian innings and it is likely that he’ll be batting twice to Pontings once if things go as expected.
Our Bets so far are:
$100 on RICKY PONTING to top score for the series for Australia at $3.50 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
$100 on SHIVNARINE CHANDERPAUL to top score for the series for West Indies at $3.25 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
August 23rd – Cricket
Well what an interesting situation we are placed in coming into the final 2 days of the final innings of the final test in the Ashes. The Aussies find them selves needing a miracle plus luck plus at least 3 arms to fall off to chase the mammoth 540 runs for victory. Even though Katich and Watson have performed admirably in getting to 0 for 80 at the end of day 3 it would be an incredible result to get the remaining runs.
Our overall bets have gone from strong positions to delicate situations with Bopara already gone Mitchell Johnson tried hard and had ever opportunity but still fell 2 wickets short of the overall tally. Jimmy Anderson looked certain to take the most wickets for England till Stuart Broad came out of the clouds to take 5 wickets and seemingly finish off Australia in the first innings. It would require another Herculean performance from Anderson to peg back that difference in the last innings. Our only real hope is Michael Clark and fortunately he is the one who is returning the highest dividend. We backed him for $100 at $10.50 after the start of the series and he had a comfortable 100 run lead over his nearest rivals coming into the last test. Unfortunately a failure from him and 2 superb innings from the England Captain in Andrew Strauss leaves Clark in the precarious position needing 27 runs to pass Strauss and take the title. I don’t really see any other dangers as it would take 150 from Ponting or North to threaten.
On another note i have been somewhat bemused by the price of England during their second innings and even up to now. They are currently paying $1.31 on Betfair which means that the punters think that every 4 times this situation occurs (A batting team needing another 460 runs to win in the final innings) that they would be successful once. I know i have said before that i would not support a bet at the odds of $1.30 (thank you Tiger!!) but the price is nothing but daft! I hope the Aussies provide a miracle and snatch defeat from the Poms (Sorry to my English followers) but that price just doesn’t make sense. I can tell you that i backed Australia at $1.96 after Day one and have eaten my humble pie and taken my medicine and sold my shares back out at the $1.30 taking a loss for the bet but not a huge one as it would if i left it on.
Enjoy the 4th day and i hope i get to speak to you again on Day 5!
August 21st – Cricket
I didn’t post up a preview for the cricket before the start of the 5th test as i felt we were in a strong position with our overall bets for top batsman and bowler and that gives us plenty to cheer for. Plus i was a little concerned about how this match will go being Freddie’s last game and England having a chance to create a bigger upset than when they won in 2005.
However, after watching the first days play i think there are only 2 possible results in this test. The Aussies to win or a boring draw. Assuming the Aussies can wrap the tail up inside 10 or 15 overs they are almost certain to post a large score and what was a very placid pitch with no real demons. Sure Swann should get some early purchase and variable bounce but the Aussie batsman are in form. with 5 of the top 7 batsman (Watson, Ponting, Clark, North and Haddin) averaging over 50 in this series plus Hussey finding some form in the tour match it would be very surprising to see the Aussies score less than 400 but more realistically 500.
With the Aussies at $1.96 i think there is great chance for them to pass the England score by the end of day 2 and then they will have shortened inside $1.50 and you could lay the bet off and have a freebie. The only downside from all this would be the Aussies batting England right out of the game as a draw is good enough to retain the ashes but i really feel they will go for the win.
Our bets $200 on the Aussies at $1.96 (With the thought to re-assess the situation tomorrow).
Our overall bets are still looking strong with Strauss not getting to 100. He still trails Clark by 45 so if Clark can get a few runs in the Aussie innings we should be home and hosed there.
Johnson has clearly returned to form and with a couple of wickets he moves to 18 and is just 2 short of Siddle so big chance there.
Jimmy Anderson is tied with Stuart Broad for the English wickets so it will come down to a little bit of good fortune who gets the nod here. This pitch probably suit Broad more but Anderson is a better bowler.
August 10th – Cricket (Running Total -$300)
A great day for us with Australia finishing off England in the 4th test giving us a tidy profit after backing them at the start of the match for $2.50. We also look strong in a couple of our long term selections with Clarke scoring in the 90’s and Mitchell Johnson returning to form with 5 wickets in the 2 innings.
Profit for the test +$200
Just a recap on how our long term bets are going with only 1 test to go.
Michael Clarke $100 at $10.50 for most runs for all players.
1st Michael Clarke with 445 runs
2nd Marcus North with 349 runs
3rd Andrew Strauss with 344 runs
Mitchell Johnson $100 at $4.10 for most wickets for all players.
1st Ben Hilfenhaus with 18 wickets
2nd Mitchell Johnson with 16 wickets
2nd Peter Siddle with 16 wickets
James Anderson $100 at $3.75 for most wickets for England
1st James Anderson with 12 wickets
1st Stuart Broad with 12 wickets
3rd Graeme Onions with 10 wickets
Ravi Bopara $100 at $5.75 for most runs for England
He is 250 runs behind Strauss and likely to be dropped for the 5th test so we are toast here.
August 7th – The Ashes
I was already swaying towards a bet on the Aussies but was going to watch the first session. However, with the late withdrawal of Andrew Flintoff the England side starts to show signs of weakness.
I really felt that the 3rd test started to play the Aussies into form with Johnson starting to find some form with a late spell in England’s only innings. The Aussie batsmen also batted strongly in the second innings and would no doubt have gained plenty of confidence from that match. I feel this is the perfect time to get on the Aussies who will go all out for a victory in this match.
With an expected flat deck on order i think Simon Katich will be all but impossible to get out and should grind out a big score in one of the 2 innings. You can get $9.00 about him having the highest score of the match in either innings.
The interesting thing about the “Flat Deck” at Headingly but if you look at the statistics they say that a bowler willing to bend his back and seam the ball will do very well. I think the loss of Flintoff hurts England in this area who are left with only swing options which will probably be null and void. Stuart Clark (If selected) will have a field day here.
$200 on the Aussies at $2.50 to win the 4th Test.
$100 on Simon Katich to have the highest score in either innings from both teams.
Note: NathanHauritz is wearing the baseball mit in practice suggesting the Aussies are going to play 4 quicks in the game. Also Collingwood appears to be keeping instead of Prior! CRAZY!!
August 3rd – Cricket (Running Total -$500)
We have a bet on the 3rd test in the Ashes between England and Australia
I can’t help but see the $4.60 available about England as value. The Aussies have a weakened line-up with Brad Haddin injured before the game and with Mike Hussey out of form that really only leaves Michael Clarke to score the bulk of the runs. Marcus North will be too defensive and although he could hold an end up for a while the Aussies need runs to get far enough ahead that the Poms can’t catch them. There will be a good chance to lay this bet off if they get an early wicket which is highly likely since the ball is now 28 over’s old and that is about when the Duke starts to swing. There is no better swing bowler in the Ashes than Jimmy Anderson and he will be pumped after a massive first innings.
The bet is:
$100 on England to beat Australia in the 3rd Test (Remember we will lay the $100 back off if they come into $2.50)
Result
Well as we stated Michael Clarke was the big danger and was the big difference scoring an unbeaten century. He was supported by Marcus North who scored a strong 96 but i still think if Clarke had gone he wouldn’t have been so confident. The plus side to it all is the end of the match played some Aussies into form and our long term bets are looking strong. Mitchell Johnson bowled a brilliant spell at the end of the England Innings and expect some big things in the 4th test now he appears to have some confidence back. Jimmy Anderson is going along beautifully and clearly is the pick of the English Bowlers. Finally Michael Clarke’s century makes him the leading scorer in the Ashes now and our bet is looking superb and we canlay some of that bet off.
Our Lay bet
As we backed Clarke for $100 at $10.50 we had a potential profit of ($950). Now he has come in to $2.04 we can lay off $200 (Liability $208) and that way if he still finishes top scorer we get ($742) or if he doesn’t we get ($100). WIN WIN!!
With Jimmy Anderson the market isn’t settled but looks like being around the $1.45 mark. If that is the case we will lay our bet off here as well. To lay our original stake of $100 would only cost us $45 of the potential profit of $275 we were getting. Stayed tuned for more on this
July 30th – Cricket (Running Total -$378)
We come to the 3rd test with England now leading 1-0 and will be doing everything to hold onto that lead. Everything is in the favour of that happening with the Aussies in turmoil with strike bowler Mitchell Johnson out of form and the lynch mob after flashy opener Phil Hughes. The weather predicted during the 3rd test is also expected to be very ordinary and I think it will take a team to fail in one innings to leave it open for the win.
Firstly we come to Phil Hughes who has been surrounded by rumours today that he is to be dropped from the team in place of Shane Watson who will open. IF this happens then Australia have clearly lost the plot and might as well pack up and go home. I’m definitely not saying if Hughes doesn’t play then the Aussies don’t win but he is their investment in the future and if they turf him after a couple of rough starts, against what all quality commentators have called vicious bowling, then we are wasting our time in England. Not to mention the fact his replacement, Watson, only averagese 19.76 and is clearly an injury risk in the side having not finished a number of games he has played for Australia.
Ok i’ve got that off my chest now. Sorry about the rant!
Hard to really predict what will happen in this test but i would suggest sticking with batsmen who do well in tough conditions and don’t mind the stop start. Simon Katich is ideal in this situation whereas Ricky Ponting tends to have a little trouble getting going. Likewise on the other side Andrew Strauss is a brilliant beginner while Alaister Cook and Ian Bell have had trouble in the past getting away.
So our bets and results are:
$50 on Simon Katich to top score for the Aussies in the first innings @ $5.40 Second highest score so just missing out there.
$200 on Andrew Strauss to outscore Alastair Cook in the first innings @ $1.86 WINNER! Cook goes for a duck and we clean up
Profit for the Day +$122
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July 21st – Cricket (Running Total -$500)
Well England have turned this into a contest with their stunning draw in Cardiff and Andrew Flintoff tearing through the Aussie attack at Lords to put England up 1-0 in the series.
We were incredibly unlucky with our bets after backing the Aussies to win again but we also backed Simon Katich to be the top scorer for the Aussies in the 1st innings and he fell 3 runs short.
Loss for the match -$300
In our overall selections Mitchell Johnson continues to take wickets even though he is bowling terribly. I am a little worried he may be dropped for Stuart Clark next test but if not lets hope he finds his mojo. Ravi Bopara is also in bad form and also in jeopardy to be dropped as he is struggling big time.
On a positive our other 2 selections Jimmy Anderson (Top England Bowler) and Michael Clarke (Top Series Batsman) are both looking strong and we may have the opportunity to lay some bets off after the next test.
July 14th – The Ashes (Running Total -$200)
Well what to say about the first test. The Aussies did everything to win the 1st test except only take 19 wickets. They fought through rain and tailenders to keep grinding away at a determined England only to fall 1 wicket short. They were clearly the best side over the 5 days and although England got off to a promising start it was proven that this was only due to a very flat batting track that showed that infact their score of 440 was sub par.(Loss -$200 from the win bet)
Our overall selections had mixed results. Mitchell Johnson took 3 wickets in the match to be equal leader in that category, however, he was very ordinary and lucky to get that. However, on the positive you could say he’s had his worst test for a long time and still got wickets so how good will he go if he gets going. Michael Clarke had a promising start to the Ashes with a fantastic 83 to keep him in the mix with the 4 batsmen (Haddin, Ponting, North, Katich) who all scored centuries. Ravi Bopara looked good in the first innings before falling to Johnson then got a rough LBW decision in the 2nd innings falling cheaply. Jimmy Anderson was the pick of the English bowlers and in my opinion was under bowled by captain Andrew Strauss, however he still leads the English wicket takers with 2.
2nd Test
The second test takes us to Lords where the Aussies haven’t lost a test since the 1930’s. Incredibly the Aussies are still paying $2.88 which can only be because the poms are praying for rain. The problem with this theory in England is it takes a long time to get dark. So even when time is lost due to rain it only takes a clear day the next to get plenty of cricket in. Also in this day and age with the expertise of covers and super soakers along with weather radars the wickets are usually kept in top order. The other value in the test is for Simon Katich to top score. Although we want Michael Clarke to get the most runs the stage is set for Katich to follow on his good form at Cardiff due to the inclusion of Steve Harmison who will be so focused on bouncing out Katich’s fellow opener Phillip Hughes hopefully allowing Katich to steal some sneaky runs.
So our bets for the 2nd test are:
$200 on the Aussies to win at $2.88
$100 on Katich to top score for the aussies at $5.50
Overall Bets (Placed before the first test still in play)
Johnson to be the top bowler $100 @ $4.10
Clarke to be the top batsman $100 @ $10.50
Bopara to be the top English batsman $100 @ $5.40
Anderson to be the top English bowler $100 @ $3.75
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