Formula 1 Returns to Bahrain – Qualifying Bet
Following Alonso’s speed in practice 3 we consider him to be a decent bet for qualifying. His odds on Betfair at this moment are around $3.25 – that’s over the odds considering his consistent pace and we expect him to be right in the mix.
$50 on at $3.25
Result: Third, but we are happy to saw we were outfoxed by Red Bull hiding their true pace. We’ll get on Vettel to win the race at $3.05 on Betfair. $100 on at $3.05
Formula 1 – a win and final tally +$1291!
Hamilton crashed out with mechanical failures and was on track to post a fastest lap but was pipped by Vettel – so we could only manage one win but it was satisfying one – we finish up $70 and push our total winnings to $1291 at the end of the season. Not bad for just 10 races of the season due to a mid year start.
Formula 1 – Abu Dhabi
I’ll be posting up a wrap-up of our Formula 1 season after the final race in the spectacular Abu Dhabi. For a new circuit it’s a real cracker, and the drivers have seemed to enjoy it. Most of all, Lewis Hamilton is on rails around the circuit and smashed everyone in qualifying. The car looks to be setup a peach and he was able to make the most of it to sit on pole. Interestingly the Red Bulls sit in 2nd and 3rd and look to be the real threat to Hamilton.
Everyone agrees: Hamilton is into $1.44 on Betfair. I’ve said before that in F1 anything under the $1.50 to $1.60 mark is a lay as F1 is just too unpredictable. However, rules are made to be broken, and Hamilton looks to be too dominant – we’ll lay him at better odds on the place.
Hamilton to take out Fastest Lap of the Race is closer to $2.30 on BF and $1.90 on SportsBet. People are speculating that Hamilton will get far ahead and then not need to be on the gas and can cruise around, but for mine Hamilton will be keen to cement that as his own.
The only other bet you might consider is a different one, something fun for the final race. LAY Hamilton to finish in the points. With this bet we’re saying Hamilton will either win or DNF completely out of the race due to a failure. At $1.17, it only costs $5 to win $30. We’ll try $20 to win $120.
All said, and given that the money is bang on, we’ll take a small wager on the Fastest Lap – $50 at $2.30.
Formula 1 -Brazil – Race Running Total: +$1221
It will be an interesting race as a number of cars have lost out due to the rain.
Rain is still forecast for tomorrow and it’s expected for the circuit to at least get a few showers. With fuel weights released, Webber in second place has done the best out of the front runners and looks set to have a good day up front with more fuel than Barrichello in front of him. If it’s dry, the runners at the back will push through. If it’s rain, the front-runners will streak away.
All things being equal, I’d fully expect Webber to win at Brazil, but if he didn’t have bad luck he’d have no luck at all so Barrichello has been backed in to win at $2.66, while Webber is at $3. The bets will be similar to qualifying where we won’t go for broke but have a backup in mind to cover ourselves.
Early mail: We’ll LAY Barrichello at $2.74 and try to win $100 by risking $174, and BACK Webber at $3 and put $50 on him.
Late mail: I’d leave your own bet closer to the race and look at the weather to decide your options, it might just be worth a speculative dollar on Vettel (now at $28) to storm through the pack in the dry.
Result: Huge win for us with Webber in stunning form to bring home a very comfortable win meaning our lay bet on Barrichello was also a good bet.
Total wins for the weekend: $225 bringing our running total to $1221 – huge profits for a mid-season start to the official bets!
Formula 1 – Brazil – Qualifying
We head to Brazil this week in the Formula 1 to a cold wet track with rain expected during qualifying and the race itself. This makes the whole show a bit of a lottery as a driver might be able to get a speedy lap in during the dry. That said, Red Bull really look the pick of the weekend, with proven cold conditions form and more importantly proven wet form. They’ve also done the job well in the dry prac sessions thus far.
I’d almost prefer Mark Webber in these conditions but Sebestian Vettel will have the whole team including Webber behind him to try and pull off a miraculous championship victory. I think he has a great chance to win the race overall, but qualifying in particular will be a total lottery – Webber, I think, will be pushing for pole without too much regard for whatever the other side of the garage is doing. If Red Bull need him to coast to give the victory to Vettel, then that’s what will happen at the end of the day.
This gives you two options. With Vettel so skinny in qualifying you can take the smart money with Betfair and lay Vettel at $3.05. This means to win $50 we have to risk $102.50. The other option you have is to back Webber - he’s at $8, so we can bet $25 on him to win $175.
Officially we’ll record both bets as one probably means the other will happen, but we’re covering ourselves a little which is ideal.
Result: An epic chaotic and wet qualifying session with many ups and downs – our ‘lay’ man Vettel was knocked out in Q1 which meant a healthy collect, while we were about as close as you can be to a big win with Webber in P2 and he looked the goods in the Red Bull before Barrichello got on pole. Overall we won $50 but lost our bet of $25 = $25 win.
Formula 1 – Singapore GP – Race Bet – Running Tally: +$996
Night racing at the Formula 1 takes place in Singapore this weekend, with the full circus of politics, foul-play and the on course action taking place with the Renault team narrowly escaping a huge fine or an outright ban for purposely crashing out Nelson Piquet in Singapore ‘08.
In the racing action, the form guide leading up to the event spoke of a Brawn romp in the street conditions, with McLaren and Ferrari close behind. The early practice pace up until last year in F1 was very deceptive. Now, due to the testing bans and shorter times for teams to get a good set-up means that the practice sessions on Friday and Saturday are now a real form-book – and once again the predictions have been turned on their head.
Red Bull have come to Singapore with a new aero upgrade including an updated front wing, and it seems to have worked for the team, who were very unlucky not to be on pole after their hot laps in qualifying were halted due to a crash by Barrichello. That allowed Lewis Hamilton to stick his car on pole. With qualifying fuel weights released, he has more fuel on board allowing him more laps than his rivals, meaning it is his race to lose from the front.
That said, Singapore is a tricky circuit with a very slippery track anywhere outside the racing line, and we’ve already seen a few crashes during practice. This makes a crash during the race and the ensuing safety car to mix up pit stops very very likely. All this means it’s no sure thing for Hamilton to win, and I nearly choked when looking at how short he was on Betfair! Punters have backed him to within an inch of his life to $1.68, which in Formula 1 is way too short.
This means we will be putting our first lay on the Formula 1 this year. For an outlay of $68 we can win $100 if anyone but Lewis Hamilton wins. While this is a risky bet, we are taking the value from the odds available, and means we’ll be cheering on a big crash and the chasing pack of Vettel, Rosberg and Webber. The Singapore GP under 1500 2000W lights is great watching, let’s hope the race delivers!
Update:
No good for us with Hamilton holding on as Vettel and Rosberg shot themselves in the foot trying too hard to get past Hamilton. There was the predicted safety car (a safety car paid $1.30 too, good price for a sure thing!) but it happened just at the wrong time for anyone to get past Hamilton. An unlucky run for us, but we can be safe knowing we had the right bet on at the odds on Betfair.
Formula 1 – Italian GP – Monza
The F1 Championship continues in the heart of Ferrari land at Monza. With the form book out the window in the last few races we’ll be treading very carefully. We had a little look at qualifying and thought Sutil at $10 was generous but didn’t end up getting the bone – although you could’ve traded him off for as short at $3 while qualifying was happening, so the tip was on the money if you are keen on live betting!
It’s too difficult to pick a winner here which is why we haven’t talked too much about the race – but we’re going to have a dabble on Kovalainen – $20 at the odds of $11 which is extremely generous considering his one -stop strategy chances. Hamilton at the odds of around $2 is much too short in Formula 1 where anything can happen. Lewis has a good chance but I’d consider taking the lay on Hamilton. Personally, I’ll be on Kova, and then looking to trade him off as the race goes on and his chances (and odds!) improve. Good Punting.
Formula 1 Update – Running Total $1064
An unfortunate weekend for us with Jarno Trulli breaking his car after about 4 corners of the race and subsequently not being able to finish costing us our little wager. Interestingly, although Raikkonen won the race, he was arguable not the fastest car with Fisichella right behing him the whole way. If Fisi would’ve been able to spare a little fuel and pit just one lap after the Ferrari he surely would’ve managed a win.
Notably, this is the first weekend where we haven’t been able to profit from the Formula 1 so our running total at $1064 remains very healthy – we look to Monza in a few weeks times for the next race.
Formula 1 – Race Bets
Well, you could’ve turned our and everyone elses qualifying predictions on their head and you might’ve got within a hope in hell of picking the result of qualifying. Force India on top, Jensen Button starting in 14th, Hamilton not making the top 10 – madness. Our little bet on Vettel didn’t get far as the Red Bulls didn’t have much pace with race fuel on board – very unexpected.
With the form guide out the window we have a great chance to make big money by picking a winner for the race – but picking a winner isn’t going to be easy. The betting says Kimi Raikkonen is the best chance – he’ll be hoping to fly off the line using KERS and then use his added fuel to stay ahead. But can he really do it? He starts from 6th, even making two or three more places he’ll be behind Trulli and Heidfeld who have just as much fuel on board. I think it’s a case of people getting on a former world champion in a Ferrari than true form. I’ve no doubt he’ll be on the podium should he get to race his race.
No one reckons Fisichella has a chance despite starting from pole. I’m inclined to agree – he’s just too short on fuel. Barrichello is the other hope for a win. The Brazilian will pit early on lap 10, but the pundits all agree the field will have spread out a lot by then, especially as many of the cars outside the top ten have put a lot of fuel in. He pits too early for my liking though.
I really think Toyota are the real deal this weekend. Trulli starts from second with enough fuel to ensure he is a real contender. Barrichello is the other chance. Raik, Trulli and Barra will be fighting for the win – and they all have a good chance.
As I’ve already mentioned, Raikkonen isn’t value – but Trulli at $4.8 is. I think we can invest $50 at $4.8 on him and know we are getting value for the really good chance he has. If you’re a fan of the Betfair back/lay system I’d strongly recommend taking him now and as the race progresses as expected, you can lay him off for a free bet.
It will be a really exciting race at a fantastic venue for the cars to go around – even neutrals will enjoy the spectacle at Spa!
Belgium GP – Pre-Qualifying
The three main chances for qualifying look to be Webber, Vettel and Hamilton. The Red Bulls are quick, Hamilton not as quick but has KERS so will be tough to split. As for the others, the Brawns can’t get heat into their tyres, Toyota are pacy, whilst Ferrari is there or thereabouts. BMW looked to be doing a bit of showboating at the end of prac 3.
Webber lost out in final practice as he required an engine change – the usual procedure is to run an old engine on Friday and then stick in a brand spanker Saturday morning – but his Renault engine had some sort of problem and so he needed a change – cutting his running down to just 3 laps. This had put a rather large dent in his chances, and so we’re probably better off to consider Vettel or Hamilton as the best chance for pole.
Not overly confident for anyone to stand out and stick their car on pole, but Vettel should have the better running and if doing so looks to go right on with it for the race. $50 on him for the Qualifying/Race double at $8.2 or you can take just Qualifying at around $4.2 on Betfair.
Further updates before the race!
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