Formula 1 – Hungarian GP (Running total +$900)
This week in Formula 1 takes us to Hungary and the tight and twisty Hungaroring circuit. Brawn GP will be out to shake up the recent Red Bull dominance while the other contenders hope they have inched closer to the top two teams.
The track layout and the temperature will play their roles this weekend. The last two races have seen the Red Bulls out in front due to a big step forward made by the team, the sweeping tracks suited to the car setup and the cooler conditions helping them conserve tyres. On the other hand, the Brawn cars have struggled to get decent grip in the cooler weather.
Therefore, a big question is, just how hot will it be in Hungary? If it is relatively cool, that could favour Red Bull. If the expected warmer conditions come out to play, Brawn GP will be hoping to get back into the title fight after two unhappy outings in Britain and Germany. Hungary has traditionally been a hot track – it was 36C on the circuit yesterday according to reports but expected to cool a little over the weekend.
There’s lots happening this weekend with the teams looking to move forward. Significantly, the Brawn GP cars have had a major aero upgrade for this weekend and will hope to be back out in front. That said, with Webber’s breakthrough win the Red Bull cars are in a purple patch and will be looking to chase them down. The McLaren team will be hunting results after a stunning leap forward in car speed last weekend promised lots but resulted in little success for Hamilton and Heikki Kovaleinen, and Ferrari are really hopeful for a podium. The Toro Rosso finally gets a big upgrade with a true double-deck diffuser kit bolted on, and the big steps made by Force India mean they are looking for points.
Form Guide
Picking a winner from this bunch so early will be tough are many unknown variables going into qualifying. There are two more really important aspects that need to be explained – KERS cars and the circuit itself. Hungary has a long run to the first corner from the start line, and last GP in Germany we saw the sensational performance of the KERS cars – McLaren and Ferrari – from the start line. These teams will be looking to get up the pointy end of qualifying and using KERS to belt past the cars ahead to lead into the first corners.
The other key factor is that this circuit is quite similar to Monaco where the cars are looking for downforce so they bolt on everything and set the wings for high resistance rather than speed down the straight. This also means that overtaking is next to impossible so it’s all about qualifying for this race. If we look back to Monaco form, Red Bull knew they weren’t going to be quick and they were very much mid-pack. While they’ve moved on from there, our confidence about their chances this weekend isn’t skyhigh. The straight shooting Aussie Webber will give us a lot of knowledge from his comments after Friday’s practice.
Betting and Markets
Make no mistakes, the Brawn team will have tyres that work, and the team will be back with a bang. Question is, will they be back to being faster that Red Bull? Ferrari and McLaren will be straining to get as close as they can in qualifying – and then use the KERS button to zip past the others down the first straight.
The bookies have the Red Bull as the favourites at $2.1 to win (either car). We’re not so sure. We expect the Brawn team to come right back into the hunt due to the car improvements and temperature boost. The Red Bull car isn’t slower in the heat, it’s just the Brawn cars are able to get high grip at a minimum cost to the tyres. Ferrari and McLaren cannot be discounted either as they’ve shown pace on high downforce tracks and have continued to move their cars forward over the season.
This makes race betting and betting over the weekend really really tricky – and for the first time this season we’re in a bit of a wait and see mode with no race bets on offer yet.
Qualifying is the only place where we think we can get some value at this stage. Vettel is at $3.2, Button $4.7, Webber $5.4, Barrichello $14.5 (Betfair). The only way either of those 4 will be beaten is through someone light fueling, but it won’t be Ferrari or McLaren as they have the luxury of the KERS speed.
With all the above said, Button and Barrichello are extraordinary value: $100 on Button and $30 on Barrichello to take out qualifying – we may look to lay off Barrichello should he come in from the generous odds on offer for him – we’ll take the easy money where we can!
July 13th – Formula 1 (Running Profit $900)
Webber dominated the weekend and really romped home in an eventful race which saw him take a drive through penalty for playing dodge ‘em cars at the start. The battling Aussie took out the race nearly 10 seconds in front of his teammate Vettel. Webber drove brilliantly all weekend with a real sense of a bit of mongrel about him. Listening to him win (http://mp3.augustboehm.com/f1webbershort.mp3) sounded very much like your tipster who went completely mad once Webber streamed over the line in first.
All this means a fantastic weekend betting for us, with our $50 on Webber at $8.2 to win really paying dividends. Interestingly enough there was a lot of money to be made on Betfair thanks to the in-play betting. Despite Barrichello having no real chance of winning even when the drive through penalty was announced, Barrichello came into about $1.30 and Webber blew to more than $5 with a lucky few even getting him at $10. With our original bet of $50 on Barrichello at $14.2 meaning we had a lot of money to subsequently lay Barrichello, for those who noticed this you could have layed Barrichello to get double our money back for as cheap as $30!!
So +$420 Webber, -$50 on Barrichello (with potentially a bucketload more for the lucky punters who managed to lay him at great odds) and -$50 on Vettel/Vettel we come out officially $260 up. Great weekends punting for us – and the world championship is more open than ever for both the drivers and constructors.
Formula 1 – German Grand Prix – Post-Qualy Review and Full Race Preview Tips
Wow! Qualifying at the Nurburgring was some of the most exciting in years and years with showers and rain playing havoc and it was carnage on the track, particularly during Qualifying2 where a number of big guns had to lay it all on the line to get a lap in to make sure they made into into the Top 10 and Qualifying3. From there Qualifying 3 was a little more normal and it came down to the final laps for the top runners.
Webber stuck his car into pole and then waited nervously for his team mate Vettel and the Brawn cars to come past, but they were too little too late and Webber finally secured his first pole position – and your tipster nearly completely lost the plot in excitement!!
Race Preview and Bets
With Mark Webber and Rubens Barrichello locking out the front row – our bets on the two front runners are looking very nice. Webber has come in from our bet at $8.2 to $2.68 and Barrichello at $8.8 from the $14.5 we got him at.
For our betting, we don’t need to put on any more money here. If you’ve followed the original bets we’ve locked in result at the best odds already, and so we do have the opportunity with Betfair to lay off our bets and recoup our original stakes which I’ll discuss, but I’ll leave this as your option. Usually I’d prefer to let it ride seeing we have such a strong position but with the weather still uncertain and with one mistake being the difference between first and an also ran there is a strong case to lay.
On our bet on Webber, current odds make it a liability of only $86 to recoup our original stake of $50. This means we get free winnings of around $255 should Webber win which is still a 5/1 return.
Barrichello hasn’t really come in enough to make the lay worth while but if he can hold down second place and not get left behind too much by Webber his price will come in, and he is a good option with a real weight of experience and previous success around the Nurburgring. He’ll also be desperate to claw back points from his teammate Button so will really put it to Webber in front and Button behind. With our $50 bet potentially bringing in a win of $675 we can lay off $400 of that win to recoup our stake at $50 and have $275 left as a free win should he prevail.
Force India have also done us proud. I should have said this earlier but Adrian Sutil is very handy in the wet and where conditions are variable. These wet conditions really even up the cars and the drivers as everyone tiptoes around the track trying to go fast whilst not to flying off the track. If you’d taken our fun bet tip on Sutil at the generous odds to get a point at $8, he’s now into $2.60 and with the chance of rain, he’s got a good chance of holding on. I’d still lay off whatever you put on it because the Ferraris behind have real race pace and a without doubt have a typically canny strategy.
We’ve done our dough on Vettel with the Qualifying/Winning double but that was a tidy little bet that had real potential, and I’d recommend in future that if you want to back a driver to win and don’t quite have the odds you’d like, take them in Qualifying/Winning double to add a small amount of risk, but with most races this season being won from pole you’re looking good.
If you need any further advice or want some personal tipping advice on the race or anything else, send through an emai or leave a comment! Thanks to Johnno for his comment on the F1, glad to be helping out!
Formula 1 – German Grand Prix – Nürburgring
Race Preview
This week we are at the German GP at the mighty Nürburgring. This really is a race that promises so much. The Formula 1 world has been back in the factory the last three weeks for the summer F1 break. There are now 9 races to go and Red Bull are desperately trying to catch the Brawn GP cars to win the world championship.
There’s some really important stuff to talk about for this weeks betting and tips. It all really comes down to two questions: will Red Bull have its nose in front on all circuits now, or did the last circuit at Silverstone flatter the car?
Red Bull has become seriously quick, and the updates on the car have really helped, but Silverstone really was the right circuit for the car with lots of high speed corners and sweeping sections. Have they slipped ahead of Brawn GP? I’m sure Red Bull and their chief designer Adrian Newey are hoping so, but Ross Brawn in a canny man and will have done his share of work to get the Brawns back in front.
There’s some really great options for us to tip this week, and we’re able to use our die-hard-fan knowledge and some of the upcoming conditions to give us some real clues. The Ring is forecast for cold and rainy conditions – Red Bull must have been praying to the rain gods because those condition will suit them to the tee. In the cold the Brawn cars have struggled to get their tyres up to temperature, especially Button who is kind to his tyres thanks to his smooth style which means no heat. Barrichello on the other hand is more suited to the conditions and is much more of a chance we feel.
Markets
Looking at the Betfair markets for the winner:
Jenson Button: 3.1
Rubens Barrichello: 14.5
Sebastian Vettel: 2.46
Mark Webber: 8.2
Two factors stand out immediately: Button is way underpriced, and Barrichello is way overpriced. Webber also has a really great chance to win as he does love the wet, and just needs some luck to get the slip on his teammate Vettel. Mind you, someone once said if Mark Webber has every had any luck it was only bad!
I really fancy putting $50 on Barrichello here at 14.5. I expect him to come in quite a lot which will be useful for us to lay him later to make it a great trade bet. He’s an outside chance for the win as well should the Brawn car be hooked up.
The ‘Winning Constructor’ market doesn’t do us many favours here unlike last time at the British GP when we really took advantage. Red Bull is really short at $1.92. Look for them to move out if they aren’t flattered early in the practice sessions. It’s a nice safe bet for the weekend we don’t like taking the really short odds when the reality is anything and everything can happen in the F1.
The Qualifying/Winning double has some tasty odds for Vettel/Vettel at 4.2 – very nice odds early. I’d consider laying Button/Button at the current $6.8 once we see how the track and the Brawn car adapts.
For fun, we like the chance Force India might have in the very variable conditions – especially if it rains. Fisichella and Sutil are at $9 and $8 respectively – they’re a bit of a chance to grab a point with a heavily revised car and with some slippery conditions on board. Not a true punt here – but the value isn’t too far away and grab them if you can get double figures.
Our Bets
We’ll put $50 on Webber to win thanks to his great value odds, $50 on Barrichello (looking to lay him once the money comes in for him), and $50 on Vettel/Vettel for the Qualifying/Winning double.
Further updates after practice and qualifying. Post up any thoughts you have in our comments section.
June 22nd – F1(Running Total +$640)
Top win by the Red Bull with the Brawns really not in the picture until the end when the heat finally went into the tyres. Very exciting and a top win with a little inside knowledge really helping us out.
Next race at the Nurburgring, and Red Bull must be feeling happy about their title chances while the previous run away favourite the Brawns (who, we noticed, Paddy Power has already paid out to win the Constructors Championship and Button to win the Drivers World Championship – too soon?) now looking over their shoulder.
F1 – British GP – Post-Qualifying
It’s pretty clear – the Red Bull is a stunning car at Silverstone and Vettel has put the win almost beyond doubt. Webber looks to have been fueled short but missed his chance after being stitched up by Raikonnen who got in his way.
We predict a Red Bull 1 – 2, Barrichello has done well to get on the front row but should be taken by Webber either early on or after the pit stops. Vettel looks assured for the win, but with our good money on either Red Bull car winning we’ve got this in the bag – or so it would seem!!
Lay the Red Bull if you wish to protect your investment and get a nice little earner if they win, but we’re sitting tight for a good win.
F1 – British Grand Prix – Update
Saturday F1 Tips (Pre-Qualfying)
With Friday practice out of the way we can start to get a better idea of the pace. With on-track being dominated by the off-track politics of the split between FIA and the Manufacturers (FOTA), your correspondent is worried that Webber won’t be at Melbourne next year which is the home of just about the best GP for fans anywhere (viewability, cost & location: 5 min walk from track to the nearest bar, backpackers and beach…).
The form:
The first two practice sessions have seen Red Bull out of the box quickly and far ahead early. Other teams struggled for setup in the usual windy conditions at Silverstone and ran laps to generate data for the evening data crunching to help with qualifying and the race. Expect Red Bull to come back to the pack as the other teams sort themselves out and play catch up – but will it be enough?
Our bets:
As predicted, Red Bull have been quick out of the box, an especially quick running on Friday bodes very well for the team. You’ll have a good chance to lay off your bets of Winning Car on the Red Bull now with the lay at $3.15. The car has been updated quite significantly and looks an absolute picture. Another strong performance to be expected during early Sat. prac & qualifying so they will come in some more. Don’t bother laying yet, this looks a sure thing.
Formula 1 – British Grand Prix
British Grand Prix:
Brawn and Red Bull will be quick here. The Red Bull car loves the high speed corners and there’s plenty at Silverstone. That said, the Brawn has been good everywhere.
The front running teams have aero updates, Brawn not so significant. The Red Bull will look a little different with a new nose, new engine cover, updated rear diffuser and a changed wheel base. Hoping for .1 to .2s. Will it be enough? Ferrari also are looking to be quick after making changes.
So, on to my bets:
Winner:
Main chances: Button at 1.97, Vettel 6, Webber 13. Hard to go past Button, but not much value at those odds imo, too risky. Barrichello at 8.8 might be worth a small value bet.
But I prefer ‘Winning Car‘ odds, Betfair gives ‘winning car’ odds atm:
Brawn: 1.46
Red Bull: 4.2
At these odds, throw some on the red bull, and cover that bet with money on the Brawn and you’ll be in front if the predicted cars turn up like last GP. Big win if Red Bull get up. Can’t see anyone else challenging really – maybe Ferrari.
Ferrari. New lighter chassis, some aero updates improvements. Take Massa or Raikkonnen for a podium at about 5.5 each. Your call on who but I like Massa for a value bet. With the right money weightings I think you can be up no matter what happens or at least have a minor loss with a good chance for Red Bull to win and clean up.
Roughie?
Put $10 on bourdais or buemi to get a point. Paying $11. Will blow out if they qualify badly but that makes it even more value. Their RedBull-lite model car should have some oomph.
As always with the F1, ignore the practice form, and look at what the drivers are saying after each day. If a teammate is doing well but the other guy is slow chances are they’ll even up by race time.
Post Qualifying bet changes
Haven’t really properly watched the odds but they’ll change post qualifying if it doesn’t go to plan for the top teams. Maybe be able to back then lay and cover – I expect Red Bull and Brawn to fight it out, Vettel perhaps on poll on a light fuel strategy, if he can put it all together he’ll have a great chance.
BETS
We’ll have $200 on Red Bull at 4.2. The Red Bull will be very hard to beat, suited to this circuit, and the closest chance the Brawn not set up for Silverstone.
The TopPunter
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