July 1st – European and PGA Tours
A superb field kicks off this week’s edition to the European Tour in the French National title, Alstom Open de France at Le Golf National. Normally a reasonable field with a couple of the big names on the European Tour contesting but this year it is filled with stars, many of which are in form. I start, as I have so many times before, with MARTIN KAYMER ($15.00) who won here last year in a playoff against LEE WESTWOOD ($11.00) who is the early favourite here this week. Both have been in great form this year but you’d have to say the price of Westwood is a little short considering the dramas he’s had to deal with this week. He was rushed to hospital after fearing he had got Deep Vein Thrombosis (DVT) when his calf and ankle swelled up and caused him a great deal of pain. Although it was found to just be a reaction to the heat it leaves me questioning his mindset and lead-up to the tournament and think Kaymer is a much stronger option. Kaymer has been very solid this year and will love the layout of the greens here in Paris. They aren’t super quick but require a good eye and confidence to strike your putts which the German has in spades. Accuracy off the tee is much more important than length around this course and a strong mindset is critical for the final holes which have a ton of water surrounding them. RORY McILROY ($21.00) again finds himself at the top of the early prices but I think until this kid shows some consistency I won’t be placing any money on him. Clearly a super talent but I think he will really struggle to keep his head for 4 days over those closing holes. He is advantaged with the warmer weather causing the usually luscious rough to be tamed meaning his occasional wayward drives won’t be fully punished. I think there could be a real threat to the title from the Danes who have performed well in this tournament before. SOREN HANSEN ($41.00) along with ANDERS HANSEN ($67.00) have been in ok form recently but the real contender is SOREN KJELDSEN ($41.00) who like his fellow countrymen has a good record here but has got much stronger recent form seeing him regularly feature in the top portion of leaderboard’s in recent times. For the Aussie followers RICHARD GREEN ($51.00) has been in horrible form except for his 2nd place finish in Portugal only a couple of weeks ago. That was out of the blue as his other tournaments have been very ordinary of late. However, his record here is outstanding with finishes of 2nd (2004), 7th (2006), 4th (2008) and 6th (2009) showing he really loves the layout here. Clearly the lack of distance required off the tees is a huge advantage for him.
The PGA Tour is a much harder read this week as the AT & T National has moved to a new venue in Pennsylvania and I have very little info on the new course except the fact it is nearby where SEAN O’HAIR ($23.00) and JIM FURYK ($13.00) grew up. RICKY FOWLER ($29.00) did have a huge win here with his college team as well so he at least has some background on the course. Out of those 3 O’Hair standouts out as the top pick as I believe he’s hitting the ball better than the other 2 at the moment (although only just). His strong finish in the US Open is clear in the memory bank and his good record on Par 4’s will be the key on a course that is only a Par 70. The last player I’ll mention is no surprise, TIGER WOODS ($4.50) who is really starting to show glimpses of his former self. Some superb iron play and chipping around the green saw him with the chance to claim yet another major until his putter let him down. I can’t see it being too far away before he is a real force in the game once again. I was tempted to take Ben Crane to beat Dustin Johnson in the Head to Heads with the assumption that Johnson would still have to be reeling from the memory of his US Open crumble but he is normally such a strong minded player that I’ll leave it alone for now. We have 3 very good bets already.
Our bets this weekend are:
MARTIN MAYMER to beat Rory McIlroy at $1.80 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
LUKE DONALD to beat Lee Westwood at $2.08 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
SEAN O’HAIR to beat Bo Van Pelt at $1.90 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
June 17th – US Open Golf Championship
What a great weekend to be home watching sport with the World Cup starting to heat up and many teams dreams being dashed as they enter their 2nd round matches. But for me the real spectacle will be the US Open Golf Championship held at the majestic Pebble Beach Golf Course. This course has seen some of the biggest names in golf take the title here and mostly due to its tough layout when played during a major championship. The last 4 times the US Open has been held at Pebble Beach the winners have been Jack Nicholas (1972), Tom Watson (1982), Tom Kite (1992) and Tiger Woods (2000) who incredibly won by 15 strokes in 2000 finishing 12 under par meaning the 2 nearest rivals and in fact every other player on the course was over par. Considering how bad TIGER WOODS ($8.00) is playing at the moment it’d be hard to see him being a real contender again but he proved at the Masters at Augusta National that he has favourite venues that even when not playing well he can rise to the occasion so don’t count him out if it gets in a dog fight. The big thing I’ve noticed since his comeback earlier in the year has been his putting which used to be a corner stone of his fantastic game. He is missing many more smaller putts than he ever used to and I believe that focus is the main issue. If his head is right he is right in this!
To the other contenders and I’d be crazy once again to not mention PHIL MICKELSON ($8.00) who won the year’s first major in the Masters at Augusta. He has also been there or there abouts in a numbers of tournaments and although he isn’t winning as many as he probably should I’d probably say he’s playing better than he has for a while (That’s so hard for me to say!). He does also boast 5 runner-up crowns at the US Open. ERNIE ELS ($31.00) is a fairly nice price considering he hasn’t been without form in recent times and did finish runner-up to Woods in 2000 at Pebble Beach. His short game is probably the key here and although it hasn’t been as good as when he was top of the world many years ago he could easily find his game at a venue he loves. MIGUEL ANGEL JIMINEZ ($126.00) is incredibly priced considering he finished tied with Els as runner-up in 2000 and has been in the best form of his career in recent times. He has a win this year and just looks in control of his game which sometimes can get a little wayward. I said at the start of the season that LEE WESTWOOD ($13.00) is primed to win a major but I’m not going to go with him here. He at times can be a little gunho with his chipping and approach shots from long range and that can really hurt you around Pebble Beach. While it’s important to be able to make birdies, which Westwood can do, I think it more crucial to stop the bleeding which I think could really hurt him here. I’ve said all year the Open Championship at St Andrews is his for the winning in a few weeks time. It’s also the reason I am shying away from another punters favourite in PADRAIG HARRINGTON ($29.00) who has been up and down for the past 2 years and whilst he has still managed to finish at the top end of many leaderboard’s this year he still seems to be fighting with his driver and unfortunately on a course like Pebble he could produce and 8 or 9 hole which will blow him out of the water. The player who has really come out of the clouds as far as major contenders in recent weeks has been LUKE DONALD ($34.00) who is consistently bringing results to the table and his short game will excel around this style of course. Although his US Open record isn’t flash this layout is much shorter which he is more comfortable with as he’s not the biggest hitter on tour. A real chance here! I also suggested at the start of the season ROBERT ALLENBY ($67.00) was going to have his best season yet and he started on fire with a couple of runner-up performances and probably should have won one of those at least. He is probably considered a chance here due to his supreme ball-striking but I feel he will be better suited in the final major of the year in the US PGA Championship later in the year. RORY McILROY ($34.00) is also being talked up as a contender with some strong performances this year but I think he is far to erratic to win on this course and his big advantage is his length which is somewhat negated by the shorter course here. Finally but certainly not leastly (Don’t think that’s a word but you get my drift), CAMILLO VILEGAS ($41.00) has really found some form in recent weeks and he could really shine at Pebble Beach. His short game is looking superb at the moment and his is an excellent ball-striker who when on, can fire off a number of quick birdies. Small greens will not bother him at all.
Our bets this weekend are:
CAMILLO VILEGAS to beat Dustin Johnson at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
ERNIE ELS to beat Jim Furyk at $1.95 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
LUKE DONALD to beat Geoff Ogilvy at $1.77 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
MARTIN KAYMER to make the cut at $1.50 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
June 9th – European and PGA Tour Preview
Our favourite tour (European) is hosting an event I know very little about and have had to do a large amount of reading but not coming up with alot of information. This week sees the Estoril Open de Portugal being played at a venue that hasn’t been used since 1995 so finding players who enjoy the conditions would be difficult. I do know the course is very high in altitude and the area often experiences high winds so picking players who can move the ball both ways and keep it low would be ideal. The quality of golfers is slowly dispersing with the top Europeans heading to USA to gear up for the years 2nd major, The US Open. Once again I would have to suggest CHRIS WOOD ($12) who we picked last week at $29 as a real contender and luckily I know some of you who used their Betfair account to lay off their initial investment when he stormed into $6 and looked like he could run away with things. But a woeful 2nd round saw him drop right out of contention and he ground his way to the finish line. It was a great disappointment for a player who I am expecting big things from in a couple of weeks when the British Open heads to St Andrews where he should love the conditions. DARREN CLARKE ($34) will probably also appreciate the conditions but to be honest if I felt compelled to back someone this week I’d look at some big odds. For the blow out punters I’d be heading towards someone like PAUL WARING ($81) who seems to like playing in that part of the world, BENN BARNHAM ($101) who has been known to put together a good round when conditions get windy and tough or ANDREW COLTART ($91) who has been threatening to be a Sunday competitor in the past couple of months.
I have had some questions recently about who I bet with and I know I can make things confusing so I will try and explain. All the prices I list in emails or the website are with SportsBet as this is who I deal with for our Managed Funds. The reason for this is it is clear and easy for everyone to see exactly what odds we are getting and can check the results days later if you miss an event. With Betfair it can sometimes be tricky to match large amounts of money which I need to deal with in the Managed Funds. However, without doubt the best betting agency as far as price goes is Betfair and the worst used to be the TAB. However, this are starting to turn a bit and the TAB is picking up ground on other agencies such as SportsBet, IASBet, Centrebet and Sportingbet but I still say no one comes close to Betfair. I’ll give you an example based on the price of one of our selected options this week in Darren Clarke.
Betfair – $44
IASBet – $34
SportsBet – $34
NSWTab – $34
Centrebet – $31
Sportingbet – $34
You can see clearly that most of the agencies are offering the same price of $34. Centrebet is clearly the worst at $31 whilst Betfair is way above the others with $44. The other beauty of Betfair is if Clarke has a good first round or is in contention come Sunday his price may come in to $10 and you can use the LAY option only available to Betfair. I know this is very scary to alot of punters, especially the smaller ones but you are costing yourself money if you don’t get one of these accounts. Even just backing Clarke straight out you are getting an extra 29% price before a ball is hit! If you’d like more information about how this works I am always available to email.
What a great lead up for the US Open we have for the St Jude Classic at the very demanding TPC Southwind. Often regarded as the hardest course outside a major event and the stats back this up. Players need to be clean off the tees but more importantly crisp with their iron play and not just hitting greens in regulation but taking some risks and making birdies as well. For this reason I am slightly leaning away from the obvious choice this week in BEN CRANE ($21) who has been blitzing every course he comes up against with results of 4th, 7th and 3rd in his past 3 starts. The only issue I have is he sometimes plays things a little too safe and I wonder when push comes to shove and it gets tight on Sunday as I know it will whether he’s got the metal to play the big shot. Although disappointing around a course that didn’t suit him last weekend I am back on the ROBERT ALLENBY ($19) bandwagon this weekend as he has proven he is one of the best ball strikers on the PGA Tour and a real chance to win either this week or next. CAMILLO VILEGAS ($29) came into the focus of a number of punters last weekend after a small return to form. Vilegas had a shocking first round of 77 before grinding his way back into the top 30. Definitely a player to get on when he gets some confidence up and if he is firing at the half way mark here I’d be keen to drop some on him winning the US Open.
Our bets this week are:
CAMILLO VILEGAS to beat Ian Poulter at $1.87 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
CHARL SCHWARTZEL to beat Justin Leonard at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
STUART APPELBY to beat Aaron Price at $1.95 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
June 2nd – PGA and European Tour Golf
Alot of reason to watch the golf this weekend for sure. For starters the European Tour heads to Wales for the Celtic Manor Wales Open played at the same course that will host the Ryder Cup later in the year. Many of the top European golfers will be taking the opportunity to hone their skills on a course that has been redesigned a number of times in recent years but none more so than last year which has seen over 5 holes completely reconfigured. This does make our job a little tough for picking an overall winner, however, I think there are a few standout selections this week based on the conditions. The Celtic Manor Resort has always favoured golfers who play well on the links style courses mainly due to the open conditions that test the players ability to be inventive and use the wind to its advantage. For that reason I think 3 golfers in particular stand out. LUKE DONALD ($13.00) is the raging favourite after running 2nd and 1st in his past 2 weekends which suggests he is hitting the ball cleaner than anyone else on tour at the moment. This layout is very different from recent weeks and whilst I would expect him to figure very highly up the leaderboard because he has usually fared well in tournaments such as the Open Championship I think I would be looking for someone with more value. Maybe the $1.47 on him to finish in the first 25 is a golden opportunity for the big punters out there. FRANCESCO MOLINARI ($17.00) has far exceeded my expectations in 2010. I was a big fan of his brother Eduardo Molinari last year and have been turned realising that Eduardo is more a flashy player whereas Francesco is the bread and butter and puts in a strong performance each week. He will love the layout and does boast a high finish in recent years here in Wales. My best value pick is CHRIS WOOD ($29.00) who has also been hunting his way up the leaderboard’s in recent weeks. Unlike Donald I expect him to get better with the move to this style of course due to the way he has played in his 2 recent attempts at the Open Championship which have been played in very open and windy conditions in the past 2 years. If things get tough out there this weekend I expect Chris to be right up there ready for a battle. For the long shot punters out old buddy IGNACIO GARRIDO ($67.00) is once again forgotten by the bookies and I don’t know why. He has been in solid form and did finish 3rd here last year showing his experience across a wide range or golf courses.
The PGA Tour goes to Ohio for the Memorial Tournament and sees the return of TIGER WOODS ($8.00) from a few weeks off to fix what has to be called a rusty swing. However, few would argue that we have yet to see a 100% Tiger for a number of years and yet he still manages to compete most weeks so you’d be crazy to forget him completely. He has a lot of history here with 4 previous wins and is the defending champ so good memories might just give him the kick he needs to get himself right for the US Open in a couple of weeks. His main rival PHIL MICKELSON ($12.00) once again has the opportunity to take the number 1 spot from Tiger with victory here. Both players are driving the ball terribly though at 49% (Mickelson) and 52% (Tiger) which will not bode well for them here. The rest of the field will go about their way trying to take the limelight from the game’s biggest names and it is harder to pick a winner than finding a golf ball in a snow storm. The best thing I could recommend is sticking with players who drive the ball well (A necessity for the Muirfield course) and are playing well and that highlights ADAM SCOTT ($29.00), KJ CHOI ($26.00) and MATT KUCHAR ($34.00). I really like the way Scott took the week off after winning and I expect him to really figure highly here and make a charge for Pebble Beach and the US Open in a fortnight. KENNY PERRY ($34.00) probably should be on the forefront of everyone’s thoughts too considering his excellent record at Muirfield and he has been running a nice streak of top 30 finishes in recent times.
Our bets this week are:
FRANCESCO MOLINARI to beat Rhys Davies at $1.85 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
CHRIS WOOD to beat Danny Willet at $1.85 (Sports Managed Fund 15% Bet)
ADAM SCOTT to beat Ernie Els at $1.93 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
KENNY PERRY to beat Steve Striker at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
** Keep your eye out later in the week for a Big 6 option on the European Tour. I think the favourite golfers have a strong chance this week.
May 25th – European and PGA Tour Review
A tough read this weekend for the European Tour this week as it hosts the Madrid Masters. The reason this is such a tough course to read is its only the 2nd time they have played the Madrid Masters here at the Real Sociedad Hípica Club de Campo. Not only that but the course plays fairly short for much of the time and most people will keep the driver in the bag for much of the course. This makes it hard to read who are the best players for accuracy off the tee as some players have a low percentage with the driver but put a 3 wood in their hand and they rarely miss. Length is still going to be important as the greens here in Madrid. I think the player who stands out for me is our old favourite in MARTIN KAYMER ($17.00) who makes his return to the European Tour after an average month on the PGA Tour. Kaymer has a very strong 3 wood game and loves playing on the European Tour. He finished 16th here 2 years ago and to be honest the only thing that puts me off slightly is the fact that they are expecting rain over the weekend and Kaymer definitely plays better when the weather is warmer. ALAVARO QUIROS ($23.00) does hit a mean drive but should also appreciate the drop to a 3 wood. This means he will still be able to hit long off the tee giving him a great advantage over those having to hit long irons in. Quiros proved that here 2 years ago when finishing 4th. He has been playing well this year and will love being back in his home country. A player who has performed well for us this year and is in great form is IGNACIO GARRIDO ($51.00). Garrido is an accurate striker of the golf ball so this course should suit. He finished 10th here 2 years ago and of course is another who should feel at home back in Spain. He has a string of 6 finishes in the top 25 before last weekend dreadful 131st but I wouldn’t be too worried about that. When he isn’t in contention or the track doesn’t suit he does have a tendency to turn his toes up. Another player who rides on the emotion of returning home is RAFAEL CABRERA BELLO ($81.00) who also boasts a top 10 finish here in 2008. Could be worth a run at the long odds.
Before I move on to the PGA Tour I thought I’d share this story from last weekend’s BMW PGA Championship on the European Tour. Robert Karlsson convinced himself he’d missed the cut in last week’s BMW PGA and he headed home to Monaco. Only to find out he made it. What transpired — shades of Darren Clarke in Spain — was crazy. Almost as crazy as his trip to the event — a 900-mile car trip to avoid volcanic ash problems. So, to recount… Karlsson arrived home, found out he’d made the cut, missed the last flight back out, had another one cancelled, found one to Orly and arrived at 1 a.m. He took a pre-dawn taxi ride — the cabbie got lost — to Heathrow for a £7,000,-plus private plane ride and made it to Wentworth at 7 a.m. Then shot 62. Is it really that hard to wait until they make the cut?
The PGA Tour stays in Texas for the Crowne Plaza International at Colonial and for those who don’t watch golf very often this is the tournament for you as there are birdies everywhere. Tee times aren’t released yet but look for those who have an early tee time for Round 1. Could be a good option to get on someone and hope they go low so you can lay them off (On Betfair) for round 2. The other option which could work out well is watching the first round and pick someone who shoots ok in the afternoon during Round 1 so they can make a big move in round 2. The reason I say this is the course has always allowed people to shoot low when the conditions are mild, which is what you get in the mornings in Texas.
STEVE STRIKER ($23.00) is considered one of the favourites but is not talked about as a potential winner here even though he is the defending champ. The reason for this is his lack of form in recent times but I think this could be the turning point for his season. Many players relish going back to places they have a good record at and Striker could easily capitalise on this. I’d be crazy if I didn’t mention PHIL MICKELSON ($8.50) who should really win this tournament on his ear. He didn’t contest here last year after his wife became ill with cancer but was the 2008 champion. He will be busy with the media with a “Pink Day” but Phil should be used to this. Many know I’m not a huge favourite of his but you’d be nuts to bet against him this week. JASON DAY ($61.00) has to mentioned after scoring his maiden win last weekend. It is worth mentioning that he finished only 1 shot off the win last year so he obviously likes the course. Last year’s runner-up TIM CLARK ($23.00) knows how to make birdies and as the tours most accurate driver and 2nd in putting you know that he is going to get a look at a lot of birdies. FREDDIE JACOBSON ($67.00) is starting to reach some of his old form in recent weeks and loves getting on a birdie role so watch out for him here too.
Our bets this weekend are:
MARTIN KAYMER to beat Alejandro Canizares at $1.83 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)
ALVARO QUIROS to beat Sergio Garcia at $1.93 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)
IGANACIO GARRIDO to beat Gareth Maybin at $1.90 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% win)
MIKE WEIR to beat Bill Haas, Vijay Singh, Paul Goydos and Steve Elkington (Group E-72 hole betting) at $4.50 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Win)
FREDDIE JACOBSON to finish in the Top25 at Colonial at $3.25 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Win)
May 18th – European and PGA Tour Preview and Bets
A superb weekend for golf with 2 huge tournaments in Both Europe and USA so we’ve decided to go public with our preview and bets
In Europe we have the BMW PGA Championship which is arguably the biggest event in Europe outside the Open Championship and as such the host club (Wentworth)attracts a quality field every year. The interesting thing here will be the greens which are all brand new from last year. I would expect them to be a bit slower than in previous years so the emphasis on putting won’t be as strong. Solid driving always helps, although fairly wide fairways make that not too much of a challenge. But good ball striking will be the key with a couple of makeable (in 2) Par 5’s and greens in regulation will help attack the slow greens for birdies. The course is one shot shorter this year with the 12th hole changed from a Par 5 to a Par 4 whilst the addition of water on the 18th will make it a little tougher to find that last ditch eagle on what used to be an easily reachable Par 5.
Although the course has changed we still look towards those who’ve played well or poorly in previous years. Interestingly favourite LEE WESTWOOD ($12.00) has not enjoyed playing at this course in recent times with finishes of 149th and 134th in his last 2 attempts here. RORY McILROY ($13.00) is the 2nd favourite and has had an interesting history at this course and this year. McIlroy started the year will with 2 top 10 finishes in his first 2 tournaments on the European Tour before taking on the PGA Tour where he missed 3 cuts and had a win in his 4 starts there. Likewise he finished very high up the leaderboard with a 5th here last year which kick started a strong stretch that saw plenty of top10 finishes including the US Open (10th) and US PGA (3rd). However, in 2008 he was playing well prior to a dreadful 116th. PAUL CASEY ($18.00) won here last year and has finishes of 9th,10th,11th and 12th in the past 10 years to his resume. I’ve never regarded him as a great putter so these greens should help him out here and I would think he is in this up to his eyeballs. Before his dreadful 80th at the Masters he did finish 6th,2nd, 11th and 5th in his prior European Tour events and 4th and 6th on the PGA Tour at the same time suggesting his swing in 2010 is where it should be. CHARL SCWARTZEL ($30.00) has been a long time favourite of the TopPunter crew and he will love the layout here at Wentworth. Interestingly it is since the last revamp of the course that he started to enjoy it more as his early starts here were woeful. In recent times though he has recorded a couple of top 20’s and although I think his overall price is a little skinny I think he could really shine here this year. PADRAIG HARRINGTON ($26.00) has always played well here but never threatened for a title with 4 top 25 finishes. The past 2 years he seems to still be battling his driver and will produce moments of brilliance before dropping 3 or 4 shots in a couple of holes. He needs to keep that together to be a contender here. MIGUEL ANGEL JIMENEZ ($44.00) is the first of the value golfers with a brilliant record here and another who will love the decreasing emphasis on putting. His past 3 attempts here have resulted in a win, 5th and 3rd which proves that point. ROBERT KARLSSON ($65.00) could be one to follow for the head to head with regular appearances here giving him good knowledge of the course. He has also has 6 finishes inside the top 50 including a 3rd here a few years ago. This has been a regular stop for veteran Aussie RICHARD GREEN ($160.00) with 8 visits here in the past 10 years. Of those 8 visits he hasn’t finished worse than 33rd and has 3 top 10’s to add to that. He is a real contender and worth backing at the each way price (For a top 10 or 20 finish). NICLAS FASTH ($250.00) is the last golfer I will focus on but not because he is the worst chance here. At a huge price Fasth could really be one to follow as like Green he has spent alot of time here (7 attempts in the past 10 years). In that time the worst finish he has had is 35th. Another really good long shot.
Meanwhile the PGA Tour hosts the Byron Nelson Classic which has seen some of the best golfers take the title in the past. Unfortunately for some reason most of the top line golfers on the PGA Tour have avoided it this week. For that reason I am a little less excited about delving deep into the form of these golfers but maybe just look a few of the golfers who have finished high here in the past. RORY SABBATINI ($46.00) is the defending champion but hasn’t been in great form but that’s nothing new for Sabbatini. He is definitely a golfer you take on trust as form means nothing to him. He missed the cut in 2008 but then finished 3rd here in 2007. A couple more Top 25 finishes are surrounded by some over 50’s so it’s definitely more a feel thing than a love for the course. Maybe look at him if he starts to fire in the first round. VIJAY SINGH ($80.00) is a prior winner here in 2004 and then backed it up with a 3rd in 2005. He had a couple more top 20 finishes in recent times but you’d be game to stick your money on him the way he is playing at the moment. SCOTT VERPLANK ($44.00) seems a better choice than the others with a win here in 2008. He has also had 3 more top 10 finishes in the past 10 years and is in reasonable form in 2010 with a 13th at the Players Championship his last result. A very consistent golfer who is often there or there abouts on courses that suit him. The golfer I’ll feature was a contender last weekend in Texas before fading away in the final round. BRETT WETTERICH ($75.00) is a former winner here and obviously is hitting the ball well. In 2005, 2006 and 2007 he hit a purple patch at the Byron Nelson with finishes of 18th, 1st and 10th respectively. Might be one to consider for the long shot punters.
**Note: Prices quoted above are courtesy of Betfair, however, all bets below are placed with SportsBet.
Our Bets this week are:
RICHARD GREEN to finish in the Top 25 in the BMW PGA CHAMPIONSHIP at $4.50 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
NICLAS FASTH to finish in the Top 25 at the BMW PGA CHAMPIONSHIP at $5.00 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
CHARL SCWARTZEL to beat Francesco Molinari at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
MIGUEL ANGEL JIMENEZ to beat Justin Rose at $1.85 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
RICHARD GREEN to beat Wen-Chong Liang at $1.80 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
SCOTT VERPLANK to finish in the Top 25 at the Byron Nelson Classic at $2.50 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
7th April – SportsBet Augusta Masters (Tiger) Promotion
I received an email from SportsBet today offering a promotion to all TopPunter subscribers that I felt was worth passing on. If you haven’t already got a SportsBet account then now might be the time to jump on board by clicking here or the banner below.
Here is there promotion
BOOKIE TO REFUND ALL BETS IF TIGER WINS THE MASTERS
Leading online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au will refund all bets placed on the outright winner of the 2010 US Masters if Tiger Woods wins.
“It’s fair to say Tiger’s preparation hasn’t been ideal and we’re happy to take him on this week, so much so that we’re prepared to refund bets on everyone else in the field if Tiger wins,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.
“Taking a stance against Tiger is normally folly for a bookmaker, but we see this as our chance to finally get one back on him.”
Sportsbet.com.au is also offering the best price available on Tiger to win the Masters, currently at $6, with some other bookmakers posting as little as $4 on a Tiger victory.
In novelty markets, Sportsbet.com.au is offering $3 on Tiger to score 16 or more birdies at Augusta, $15 on him leading from start to finish, and $41 on him re-entering the clinic during the tournament.
Note: In November last year, Sportsbet.com.au paid out early on Tiger Woods to win the Australian Masters after two rounds when he was three strokes ahead. Woods faltered in the third round to share the lead with two others, before he shot clear on the final day to win the tournament.
Prices are subject to fluctuation.
7th April – US Masters – Augusta National (Golf)
I thought I would get in nice and early and share our thoughts with the general public this week as we have the first Major of the year on this weekend (Starting Thursday)
Augusta National can be a funny course and it’s hard to predict the scoring sometimes as it has difficult rough that can be murderous if you are constantly getting stuck in it. Add to that the lightning fast greens and players can be spending most of their day struggling to make par. However, as they are predicting rain on Thursday it just might take a little sting out of the course and providing there aren’t really strong winds around (Which aren’t predicted) then I’d say it will be important to get off to a good start.
A few players have fared well at Augusta in recent times so I’m going to focus my attention on them.
- TIGER WOODS ($5.70) – Haven’t seen him start at that higher price in a long time and it is actually tempting. He is a last start winner and has won here 4 times before including a heap of top 10 finishes to add to that. Not playing competition golf in long time would usually be a concern but Tiger would have been practicing a lot in his time away from the game and is well known to start well after a break.
- PHIL MICKELSON ($15.50) – Does rise to the occasion at Augusta and has had a great record here in the past but I would not spend a cent on him. Has been in erratic form this year and is a disappointment most times he steps out on the course. If he gets a sniff on Sunday he will be hard to beat but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him shoot 78 in the 1st round.
- ERNIE ELS ($17.50) – Probably the most interesting of the main hopes this week. Els has missed the cut at his last 3 attempts at Augusta but it’s fair to say his game was in limbo during that period. Back when in his prime this tournament was a favourite of his with top finishes in 2004 (2nd), 2003 (6th), 2002 (5th), 2001 (6th), 2000 (2nd) hard to ignore. It’s been very noticeable that in recent weeks he has found his game although I should also mention that Augusta was lengthened in 2005 which also might attribute to Els disappearance in recent times.
- PADRAIG HARRINGTON ($20.00) – Another odd one to try and catch. Harrington has also been struggling with his swing in the past couple of years from when he dominated the game back in 2006-2008 winning a number of majors. He has a couple of top 10 finishes here and he did find some form in the past couple of weeks but I wouldn’t be wasting any money on him.
- RETIEF GOOSEN ($26.00) – Goosen has been my pick from a long way out this year. He has a great short game, he can putt on glass and he has a great record here in recent years. Add to that the fact he’s been there abouts in recent tournaments and I really like our chances this year. He did miss the cut at Augusta last year but finished 17th in 2008, 2nd in 2007 and 3rd in 2006 and 2005. That screams that if he can get away to a decent start his silky putting stroke will be hard to topple on Sunday.
- LEE WESTWOOD ($26.00) – I really thought this would be the year for Westwood to win a major after winning the Race to Dubai in impressive fashion last year and starting 2010 off strongly but I haven’t been impressed with recent weeks. He is finding himself high up in the standings but I really don’t think he has the mental capacity to mix it on the big stage when the chips are thrown down. He has extreme talent so that can’t be ignored but I won’t be letting my money ride on him for some time yet.
- IAN POULTER ($42) – Not without a hope here after a strong start to the year. It’s hard to catch his form though with 4 top 10’s from 6 starts this season (including a win) but his other 2 starts were terrible finishing 64th and 69th. I guess the secret is if he is playing well in round one then consider him a chance. Has had 3 finishes inside the top 25 in the past 3 years suggesting he doesn’t mind the layout.
- VIJAY SINGH ($95.00) – Singh has never been one of my favourite golfers but he has had a good record here over the years with a number of high finishes. Might be worth a few bob at long odds.
- ANTHONY KIM ($4.00) – Kim has been crunched in after his win last weekend but I think it is wasted money. Sure Kim is a super talent but how he won last weekend is way beyond me. Anyone who watched any golf last weekend would have seen Kim’s woeful driving display that saw him average only 41% of fairways included a dismal 21% on Saturday when he still managed to shoot 3 under. Sure that means he scrambled well and we know he can putt but you won’t get away with that around here. Big time LAY!
- ANGEL CABRERA ($80.00) – It would be remise of me not to mention the defending champion but to be honest how can you read form from this man. His last couple of starts have been ordinary but then again he missed the cut the 2 tournaments prior to his win last year. He does also have 3 more top 10 finishes at Augusta.
- STEWART CINK ($110.00) – Probably the golfer I am most excited about after doing my form work into this weekend. I have never really followed Cink’s career even with his major win at the Open Championship last year but I couldn’t help but notice how often he appears on the leaderboard at Augusta National. He’s never really threatened apart from a 3rd place finish in 2008 but a high finish wouldn’t surprise at all.
- MATT KUCHAR ($95.00) – Is hard to go past considering his form this year. He has had back to back top 10 finishes in his last 2 tournaments to go with his 2nd and 3rd place finishes in the 1st two tournaments of the year. He hasn’t been to the Masters since 2002 where he missed the cut but he has a game that will be suited to this course and I think he will perform well.
- MIKE WEIR ($110.00) – The last golfer I am going to put on the preview although I do like a few more golfers which I will mention below. Weir is a previous winner here and has had a solid start to the year. He has been thereabouts in recent years here and again another high finish would be expected.
I hope that helps some of you out with your selections.
Our bets are:
ERNIE ELS to beat Phil Mickelson at $1.97 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
GEOFF OGILVY to beat Robert Allenby at $1.82 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
CHARL SCHWARTZEL to beat Anthony Kim at $1.95 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 15% Bet)
VIJAY SINGH to beat Nick Watney at $1.90 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
EDUARDO MOLINARI to beat Francesco Molinari at $1.90 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
March 23rd – PGA and European Tour Golf
I’ve got a nice early start on the golf this weekend so thought I would get my thoughts out there and give everyone the best chance to get on board.
The European Tour is heading to Spain for the Open de Andalucia de Golf at the Parador de Málaga Golf Club. It’s hard to get a real bearing again on the tournament as this tournament has not been held here in recent times. The only real read you can get on the tournament is from pictures and looking at the course guide which suggests that this is going to be a shoot out with a short course and flat greens suggesting there will be birdies everywhere. The weather hasn’t been great in the lead up with major rain soaking the course, however that is expected to improve for the weekend. Usually that measn that it will be preferred lies and players can aim straight at the pins with the soft greens. I would think the winner would have to shoot better than 20 under to win. MIGUEL ANGEL JIMENIZ ($19.50) is a Malaga native and should relish the conditions. PABLO MARTIN ($60) actually lives just down the road from the course and played many times as a child, however, after a strong start to the season with a win and a 6th place in the first 2 tournaments he has struggled in recent weeks. Unfortunately for Martin his father passed away after that strong start and he hasn’t found his game again since. Maybe staying back home and being in a comfortable place may help him lift. Others who will love the birdie fest include GARETH MAYBIN ($50), JEPPE HULDAHL ($110) and DANNY WILLET ($26) who found some good form last weekend.
In the PGA Tour we only have 2 weeks till the first major of the year in the Masters held at the great Augusta National and players will be keen to get their swing smooth ready to take on TIGER WOODS in his much awaited return. I would expect the skills needed to perform well at Augusta will be on display here and those featuring in the top of the pack will be who I will favour in a fortnights time. This weekend its the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and once again amazingly PHIL MICKELSON ($13.50) heads the betting by a long way and once again I am amazed. Phil won here way back in 1997 and has shown nothing this year to suggest he is a strong contender and worthy favourite each week LAY LAY LAY. If you don’t already have a Betfair account please click here and then contact me for information on use it as you really are missing out on some easy money backing people to lose rather than win! JIM FURYK ($24) has to be considered again after winning last weekend and will appreciate the toughness of this Palmer layout. For once I am not spruiking the chances of ROBERT ALLENBY ($32) who I expect will struggle with the imagination and skill needed around the greens. Even in his great form I wouldn’t be surprised to see him miss the cut this week. I was hoping for slightly higher odds but I like the chances of RETIEF GOOSEN ($36) not just this week but at the Masters as well (There is a $38 chance). JUSTIN ROSE ($46) has showed a level of consistency this year that I haven’t seen before and that says to me he in control of his game. He is a very talented golfer and if he gets on a wave he could beat anyone. Another golfer that if you see him playing well this weekend then get all over him to win the Masters. RICKIE FOWLER ($75) has come ahead in leaps and bounds in 2010 and is a player of the future. Appears to have a solid head on his shoulders and although I don’t think he has the mental strength to win hear I wouldn’t surprise to see him finish very high here.
Our bets are:
European Tour
DARREN CLARKE to beat Thomas Bjorn at $1.90 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
IGNACIO GARRIDO to beat Peter Lawrie at $1.90 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
GARETH MAYBIN to win Group C in 72 hole betting on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet) **Other players in group are Peter Lawrie, Bradley Dredge, Gregory Bourdy and Pablo Martin
PGA Tour
SEAN O’HAIR to beat Robert Allenby at $1.93 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 15% Bet)
JIM FURYK to beat Ernie Els at $1.93 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
JUSTIN ROSE to beat Graeme McDowell at $1.90 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
Golf – PGA Tour (Phoenix Open)
The European Tour goes on a break this week while the PGA Tour heads to the Desert for the Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. This is one of my favourite courses as it provides plenty of birdie opportunities but punishes those who take risks at the wrong time. The run home is a perfect example with a very reachable in 2 Par 5 (15th), then the stadium styled par 3 (16th) a drivable Par 4 for the big boys (17th) and a punishing final hole that could be very important come the final round on Sunday (18th).
JB HOLMES ($25) has won this tournament twice in recent times and many think he’ll over power the course but I think good iron play is more important. Having said that he has been in good form of late and a high finish wouldn’t surprise at all. I refuse to talk about PHIL MICKLESON ($9.60) anymore as he is definitely the most overrated golfer on the PGA Tour. IAN POULTER ($24) played well last week but it is rare to have a player go back to back and especially in 2 very different formats. The golfer that stands out massively for me is the TopPunter favourite in MARTIN KAYMER ($23). Kaymer has proved time and time again that he loves desert golf (He has a stunning record in the middle east) and he has the game to adapt to all courses. In great form and a solid pick again this week. KEVIN NA ($42) could be a strong contender this week after running into a white hot McIlroy in the 1st round of the World Matchplay he will be fresh and ready to defend his 3rd place finish last year. Has a game to suit this course and can handle the low scoring. If length does end up playing a part this year I’d have to include RORY SABBATINI ($85) who has been strong this year and can easily put a couple of low scoring rounds together if his head is on.
Our Bets are:
MATT KUCHAR to beat Brian Gay at $2.00 on SportsBet (Horse Managed Fund 5% Bet)
BUBBA WATSON to beat Pat Perez at $1.85 on SportsBet (Horse Managed Fund 5% Bet)
MARTIN KAYMER to beat Ian Poulter at $1.85 on SportsBet (Horse Managed Fund 15% Bet)
GEOFF OGILVY to beat Phil Mickleson at $2.55 on SportsBet (Horse Managed Fund 5% Bet)
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