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January 11th – PGA and European Tour Previews

TopPunter — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 23:36:05 +0000

The golf season has begun again with the European Tour in South Africa whilst the PGA Tour goes to Hawaii. The Joburg Open has always put together a strong field and this year is a bit of an exception with a few of the bigger names not attending. There is one player who stands out miles in front of his rivals in CHARL SCHWARTZEL ($4.33) who has won this event comfortably the past 2 years and is in incredible form with finishes of 12^th,9^th,4^th and 5^th in his past 4 European Tour events. Coming in fresh of a few weeks break over Christmas and the New Year I think Charl is a very good chance to make it 3 in a row here but unfortunately so do the bookies who have opened him at a Tiger like price of $4.33 to win the tournament. Funnily enough that is still tempting as it is hard to see him not figuring in the finish on Sunday but I think the safer option is to back him for the place and be happy with the $1.73 on offer (Sportsbet.com and IASBet.com). I also like the look of DANNY WILLET ($26.00) and THOMAS AIKEN ($15.00) to win their respective groups (Available on Sportsbet.com.au) following a good record at this tournament along with nice finishes of 7^th and 14^th respectively at the African Open last week.

On the PGA Tour we have the Sony Open in the beautiful Waialae Country Club in Honolulu Hawaii. It’s always been tough to get a gauge of where some players are at this early in the season and often many of the big names are trying new equipment, swings etc so they are ready for the big money later in the year. Tournament favourite STEVE STRICKER ($8.50) is clearly using this time of the year to get some form on the board after a fairly ordinary 2011. A win last week sees him come in a very short favourite and based on the fact this is generally a course for the best ball strikers you’d find it hard to argue. You can couple that with a 9^th place finish here last year. My top selection however goes with KJ CHOI ($15.00) who is a former champion around here and had a solid 2011 campaign even though he didn’t fare so well missing the cut here in 2011. I’m willing to forgive that as he just couldn’t get things going there last time round but then his season really took off. A 5^th place finish at the Tournament of Champions (Behind Stricker) last week suggests he is coming into this with his game in the right spot. The other good looking bet is a fairly unknown golfer in MARK WILSON ($41.00) who has had a great start to the year at this course the past 2 years with a 20^th in 2010 followed up with a victory here in 2011. An 18^th place finish in a strong field last week suggests he is hitting the ball well and ready to defend his crown.

Our Selections this week are:

CHARL SHWARTZEL to finish in the Top 5 Overall in the Joburg Open at $1.73(Sports Managed Fund 15% Bet)

DANNY WILLET to win his group (Havret, Van Der Walt, Grace and Otto) at $3.75(Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

THOMAS AIKEN to win his group (Goosen, Coetzee, Mulroy and Van Zyl) at $4.33(Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

MARK WILSON to beat Jerry Kelly in the Sony Open at $1.90

(Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

KJ CHOI to beat Zach Johnson in the Sony Open at $1.90

(Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

December 12th – Dubai World Championship

TopPunter — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 07:31:30 +0000

The European Tour has its season ending tournament with the Dubai World Championship finalising the winner of the season long Race to Dubai. LUKE DONALD ($12.00) is the 2^nd favourite to win this weekend but has an almost unassailable lead in the Race to Dubai. It’s an amazing season for Donald who looks certain to claim the money title in both the European and PGA Tour, a feat I haven’t heard of for a long time. Basically he would have to miss the cut and have RORY McILROY ($6.00) win. To make up the 800,00 euro difference in prize money he needs. The price for both McIlroy and WESTWOOD ($6.50) is incredibly short even though the pair are in good form and played well here last year finishing 5^th and 3^rd respectively. I couldn’t possibly taken them on at that price. MARTIN KAYMER ($15.00) showed some glimpses of form last weekend and has an incredible record when playing in Dubai. He failed to get the job done over the weekend here last time round but this is a typical Greg Norman designed course that requires a strong mental game and prior knowledge has always been a plus here.

Of the outsiders I would have to consider Y.E. YANG ($41.00) a serious contender with some solid performances in the past couple of months. Put that with a 13^th place finish last year and he has to be good each way value. The other contender would be CHARL SCHWARZEL ($26.00) who looks back on track to start his winnings ways and put together a strong first and final round last year finishing middle of the pack.

Our Selections are:

MARTIN KAYMER to beat Paul Casey at $1.85 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)

CHARL SCWARTZEL to beat Louis Oosthuizen at $1.81 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)

November 18th – Presidents Cup (Friday Four Ball)

TopPunter — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 22:33:45 +0000

I thought we were incredibly unlucky to not pick up both victories yesterday with Aaron Baddeley and Jason Day losing both the last 2 holes to end up with a tie against Dustin Johnson and Matt Kuchar.

We are sticking with the same pairing to beat the same pairing (A bit unusual for that to happen in this format) with Watson / Simpson taking on Els / Ishikawa again after beating them comfortably on day one. We are getting a slightly lower price today but I still believe there is plenty of value there. The 2^nd bet that looks value is Adam Scott teaming up with Kyung-Tae Kim against the old heads in Phil Mickelson and Jim Furyk. Scott should be able to help Kim a lot better around the course and I think the price is very generous.

Our Selections are:

BUBBA WATSON / WEBB SIMPSON to beat Els / Ishikawa at $1.87 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)

ADAM SCOTT / KYUNG-TAE KIM to beat Mickelson / Furyk at $2.28 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Win)

November 16th – Presidents Cup Golf

TopPunter — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 07:30:41 +0000

The Presidents Cup golf kicks off tomorrow and it’s a strong field that takes place for both the INTERNATIONALS ($1.87) and the USA ($1.95) with many believing the local knowledge of the 5 Aussies selected being the deciding factor. I was a big fan of the Europeans to topple the Americans in the Ryder Cup and my first thought was for a similar result here until I thought more deeply into the selections that each side has picked. Greg Norman (Captain of the International Team) has selected a team with knowledge of the Royal Melbourne Course along with some new up and coming talent which appears to be a great mix, however, I think the USA team has a better balance. Players like Tiger, Mickelson, Stricker, Furyk, Toms are so used to eating up the pressure that comes from an event like this and I think they hold too much weight. Add to that the rookies they have picked are on fire at the moment in Webb Simpson, who dominated the later part of the 2011 season and Nick Watney, who won twice on the PGA Tour this year. In fact Watney really impressed me with his play in his Australian debut at the Aussie Open last weekend suggesting he has acclimatised very quickly to the windy conditions that he will get this week.

I will try and do an update on each days events as they come to hand but it can sometimes be difficult to be ready to go as soon as the pairings have been chosen and had time to review the previous rounds play.

Thursdays competition sees the players in a foursome format which means each team of two plays with one ball taking alternate shots. This is usually an event where prior experience is a huge advantage as communication and trust are tested to the limit. I really like the first USA pairing of BUBBA WATSON / WEBB SIMPSON ($2.06) who take on the old stager ERNIE ELS and young gun RYO ISHIKAWA ($2.26). Els has won at Royal Melbourne before but Watson and Simpson have been in great form recently and this looks a solid opening pick for me.

In match 2 I give the nod to GEOFF OGILVY / CHARL SCHWARTZEL ($2.02) over BILL HAAS / NICK WATNEY ($2.30) due to experience. However, as I stated I really liked the way Watney played last week and I’m not willing to take him on. In match 3 I was really surprised by the odds when AARON BADDELEY / JASON DAY ($2.08) take on DUSTIN JOHNSON / MATT MUCHAR ($2.26) as I thought the Aussies would’ve been much shorter. They have experience, form and the white hot putter of Baddeley on their side whilst the USA has to juggle the erratic Johnson with the consistent Kuchar who was pretty disappointing over the weekend. Putting will be such a huge factor this week and Aaron Baddeley would have to be one of my favourites for the highest points tally.

Match 4 is a very experienced foursome of PHIL MICKELSON / JIM FURYK ($2.08) taking on ROBERT ALLENBY / RETIEF GOOSEN ($2.26). Hard to find a winner here but should be a hard fought match. Maybe a Tie ($6.00)? Likewise I couldn’t separate DAVID TOMS / HUNTER MAHAN ($2.10) and KYUNG-TAE KIM / Y.E. YANG ($2.24) as all players can be up and down from time to time.

Finally Match 6 is a thriller with TIGER WOODS / STEVE STRICKER ($2.16) taking on ADAM SCOTT / KJ CHOI ($2.16). The bookies can’t split them and why would you want to. Tiger returned to form last weekend with a strong effort in the Australian Open and his record with Steve Stricker as partner is fantastic. Having said that Adam Scott has had his best season in a long time on the PGA Tour and KJ Choi is a master at the pairs format making this a great contest.

I make it 3 points each after day one

Our Selections are:

BUBBA WATSON / WEBB SIMPSON to beat Els / Ishikawa at $2.06 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)

AARON BADDELEY / JASON DAY to beat Johnson / Kuchar at $2.08 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)

August 21st – PGA Tour (FedEx Cup)

TopPunter — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 09:26:09 +0000

We’ve reached the final round of what has been a hotly contested FedEx Cup Playoff. WEBB SIMPSON has lead for much of the season and has just been super consistent every week. Having said that the beauty of the FedEx system is because the points go up every week the opportunity to come from behind is very high and he has his work cut out to stay ahead of the pack. LUKE DONALD is probably too obvious pick this weekend with a runner-up finish here last year to go with 3 other Top 25 finishes from his 4 starts at this track. He’s had a stellar year and seems to have got over the mid season shakes which saw him play well instead of brilliant (Hard to imagine I know!). I love his chances but will give my top spot to ADAM SCOTT who has had a bit more going for him later in the season and can boast a win here in 2006 when he was on an equally hot streak. His iron play is well suited to the East Lake course and 2 more top 10 finishes here prove that he has the game to win the Tour Championship and possibly a long shot to sneak the FedEx crown. Of the others I have always had a high opinion of NICK WATNEY when it comes to ball striking courses so its no surprise to see he has figured in the Top 25 in both of his trips to this course.

Our bets this week are:

ADAM SCOTT to beat Jason Day at $1.87 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

NICK WATNEY to beat Dustin Johnson at $1.80 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

August 31st – FedEx Cup Playoffs and European Tour

TopPunter — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 10:34:29 +0000

Week 2 of the FedEx Cup Playoffs is in action with the Deutche Bank Championships at the very open TPC Boston. This course has been a haven for those who can’t control the driver as your main goal this week is to get the ball as far down the track as possible and most of the time the danger isn’t so big. If he didn’t win last weekend you’d have to think DUSTIN JOHNSON ($19.00) would be right at home here as he generally hits the driver well but the one mistake he makes normally finishes off his round. Backing up after a win is always a tough ask but it’s not uncommon in FedEx Cup history so I wouldn’t completely count him out. The Aussie pair of ADAM SCOTT ($19.00) and JASON DAY ($21.00) look a much better prospect though after a super 2011 so far. Both are consistently finishing at the top of the leaderboard and Day in particular reads really well with a runner-up finish here last year.

If you’re looking for an overall pick for the FedEx cup you’d be crazy to leave out STEVE STRICKER who just eats it up at this time of year. He hasn’t had a super year for the big tournaments but he has been so consistent again this year and he is a guy who knows how to win.

The European Tour is hosting the Omega Masters in the high peaks of Switzerland and has still managed to pull some big names despite all the action in the US with LEE WESTWOOD ($11.00), RORY McILROY ($10.00) and MARTIN KAYMER ($17.00) all set to contest the event. It’s a tough event to predict with those big 3 at the helm but they’d all have to admit they aren’t in super form. McIlroy has a tidy record at this event when he has been able to turn up so it’s no surprise to see him listed as the favourite. MIGUEL ANGEL JIMENIZ ($34.00) is very tempting at these odds considering his record in recent years where he was the winner here last year (and tipped by TopPunter). The reason for his selection was the fact he’d finished 4^th and 3^rd in the 2 years previously and he loves these courses where birdies are a plenty. The big blowout could be BRETT RUMFORD ($151) who is a former winner here and has also finished in 13^th, 32^nd, 23^rd and 44^th for his other results in the past 5 years. Whilst he is hitting the golf ball like it’s got crazy glue in it at the moment you’d have to think he is walking into the course with a fair degree of confidence. I thought he may have been value as the top Aussie in the field but with a fairly weak Aussie contingent he is a skinny $4.50 which isn’t too tempting.

Our bets this week are:

JASON DAY to beat Matt Kuchar at $1.87 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

RORY McILROY to beat Lee Westwood at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

August 24th – FedEx Playoffs and European Tour

TopPunter — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 10:05:07 +0000

All freshened up after a week off and we get straight back into the big action with week 1 of the FedEx Playoffs being held at Plainfield Country Club for The Barclays. This is the top 125 players in the FedEx Cup standings and next week only the top 100 will survive and the list goes on and on till the final round in a month’s time. A lot of interest always surrounds the players around the “bubble” each weekend and this will be no exception with a number of quality players at risk of missing out. A win can catapult you from the cellar to championship contender so no one is without a chance of taking the major prize at this stage.

The only problem with this tournament is I’m finding it very hard to find much information on the course. The PGA Tour is much worse for those wanting to do study of the previous results, changes to the course etc and when matched up against the European Tour it looks like a low budget film production. It’s no surprise that the majority of our winners come from our European Tour bets and I’ve found myself needing to keep a bible of past results, interesting holes, weather conditions for all the PGA Tour events that in a few years to come will be an extremely valuable resource. One thing I did notice was this seems to be a fairly short course so on appearances you want to be on the ball strikers like LUKE DONALD ($13.00), STEVE STRICKER ($15.00), DAVID TOMS($26.00) and ZACH JOHNSON ($41.00) for those who want a bit more value.

I think the value for the tournament may be in the top Aussie market with some great prices about JOHN SENDEN ($12.00), NICK O’HEARN ($21.00), and STUART APPELBY ($26.00) all genuine chances of being the top placed Australian yet are paying huge odds.

The European Tour is again without the big guns making it a bit of a lacklustre affair for the Johnny Walker Classic in Scotland. There is a long form line to read through for the tournament with the event being held in the same place for the past 13 years in complete contrast of the PGA Tour which hosts a new venue. A few golfers have featured in multiple years but aren’t in scintillating form like SIMON DYSON ($19.00) and JAMIE DONALDSON ($23.00), however, if you were going with this line of thought I would be more inclined to go with GREGORY HAVRET ($51.00) who gives you much more realistic odds about their chances. The real contenders for me are ROSS FISHER ($21.00) who has a class on most of these golfers and GREGORY BOYD ($31.00) who really impressed me last week and is knocking on the door for a win.

I think the value is going against those who’ve performed well here in the past but in bad form against those who are striking the ball well. Normally that is a big indicator for me but that is only with players who have the ability to play at a higher level than most.

Our bets this week are:

GARY BOYD to beat Jamie Donaldson at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

ROSS FISHER to beat Eduardo Molinari at $1.95 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

August 10th – PGA Championship Preview and Bets

TopPunter — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 10:14:59 +0000

The final major of the year is upon us with the PGA Championship at the Atlanta Athletic Club the host venue. A number of golfers have homes in the Georgia area and there are even a few that have good memories of this particular venue. DAVID TOMS ($46.00) won here in 2001 and made a successful return to the game last week with a strong performance in the WGC Bridgestone. Having said that he is the only one I will really recommend from prior knowledge as the course has undergone a few revamps in the past 10 years and is now playing incredibly long with rock hard fairways and difficult rough that will challenge the best of them. Fairways off the tee is going to be so crucial, however, those who try and layup will find the long ride home incredibly tough. I think the form from last week is a better mark to go by and that is where I lie the best of my selections. ADAM SCOTT ($21.00) dominated the field in winning last week and really found some good form with the driver to go with his hot putter in 2011. Likewise JASON DAY ($21.00) looked good for much of the week but his driver went a bit south on Sunday and that puts a big question mark over his head for me. For me the real performers beside Scott were LEE WESTWOOD ($13.00), who found a game that really puts him on the cusp of taking the major crown he should have earned some time ago and RORY McILROY ($10.00) who is a bit skinny for my liking but he really played well at Firestone but his putter just scrapped the edges all day. His game is built for a course like this and I could easily see him tearing away with it like he did at the US Open a short time ago.

For the rougher picks I’m going to put my neck on the line with MARTIN KAYMER ($31.00) one more time. He is another who should be suited by the style of course and he loves playing in the warm weather that is expected to reach extreme temperatures. Each week more of his game is coming together and I can’t see it being long before he rises to the top again. FREDRIK JACOBSON ($81.00) gets my final pick on the back of a really solid 2011 and a great performance last week. He didn’t put the best Sunday together but he is a confidence golfer who could really get swept up in PGA fever this week.

For TIGER WOODS ($21.00) followers I was impressed with his comeback performance at Firestone. I think he’s a long way off being at the top of his game (if he can ever get back there) but he really showed signs that he could put some low numbers down this week.

The odds this week come from Luxbet.com who have put on a great promotion this week for the PGA Championship. Aside from the usual depositing bonuses for first time customers that sees a $25 starting deposit earn you a $100 free bet if you back a golfer and they are in the Top 3 at the end of any round you’ll be refunded your bet back plus still have the golfer be a cha

Last week we went 4 for 4 in our head to head selections and I know a few of you who chucked them in a multi and collected some handsome dividends with odds over $11. As always our golf bets are the driving force behind our Sports Managed Fund which has been on fire in 2011.

Our bets this week are:

RORY McILROY to beat Luke Donald at $1.98 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

TIGER WOODS to beat Phil Mickelson at $2.05 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

FREDRIK JACOBSON to beat KJ Choi at $1.93 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

July 27th – PGA and European Tour Preview

TopPunter — Wed, 27 Jul 2011 09:53:20 +0000

Will Irish eyes be smiling on the European Tour on Sunday at the conclusion of the Irish Open at the Killarney Golf and Fishing Club? That is the question many are asking as Irishman RORY McILROY ($6.00), GRAEME McDOWELL ($17.00), PADRAIG HARRINGTON ($19.00) and DARREN CLARKE ($26.00) all sit high up in the betting markets at the start of the tournament. With conditions expected to be fairly mild with maybe some light drizzle only serving to soften the greens I am expecting scoring to be very high and that plays right in the hands of US Open champ Rory McIlroy. Looking through the field you really struggle to find any consistent birdie makers but would have to consider DANNY WILLET ($51.00) a RICHARD FINCH ($51.00) chance of being up there if their heads are screwed on right. The big smokie that I think is worth a nudge this week is ROSS McGOWAN ($151.00) and those reaching through the form guide would no doubt be asking why?? The reason is the McGowan for the past few years has had only a handful of good results and only one “purple patch” at the end of 2009 where he recorded a win, 2^nd and 3^rd in the space of a few tournaments. Each time that happened the scoring was a birdie fest and even in 2010 when he finally put a round together it was when he was able to shoot better than 10 under. Don’t sell your house for it but I think he’s worth a couple of bucks. In fact for those who are of the smarter breed with Betfair accounts you would be laughing at the odds of McGowan who is a massive $400.00 giving you the perfect chance to have a few dollars on him and if he starts well you can lay the bet back off again with ease knowing you are in a win win situation.

The PGA Tour hosts the Greenbrier Classic in West Virginia this week and organisers have a little surprise for those who expected this to also be a birdie fest. Actually its not that dramatic but they have endeavoured to make scoring a little tougher with a few additions to the course but I still think the winner will shoot over 10 under comfortably. For that reason I’m sticking BRANDT SNEDEKER ($29.00) in as my top pick for the week as he loves this style of course where you don’t need to bomb the ball a mile down the fairway. SERGIO GARCIA ($19.00) gets another mention with a 2011 season that seems to improve with every week. He surely can’t be too far away from recording his first win. Outside of that it is pretty slim pickings with a number of players showing some potential for a good week but I’m not really that confident to stick my neck out on any of them.

Our bets this week are:

GRAEME McDOWELL to beat Ross Fischer at $1.80 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

SERGIO GARCIA to beat Phil Mickelson at $2.13 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

BRANDT SNEDEKER to win his group (Spencer Levin, Gary Woodland, Brendon de Jonge, Andres Romero) at $4.00 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

July 20th – PGA and European Tour Preview

TopPunter — Wed, 20 Jul 2011 09:48:51 +0000

Another weekend is on its way and the golfing continues in the wake of The Open Championship won by the veteran Darren Clarke in a solid display of golf in horrible conditions. There were 2 real surprise packets in the tournament in Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson who really showed their fighting qualities when the going got tough. For that reason DUSTIN JOHNSON ($8.50) looks really tough to beat in this week’s Nordea Masters (Scandinavian Masters). Not only is he well in form now but this track is long and fast and the big guys will be bombing it a long way in front of those who like to just keep it on the short grass. BUBBA WATSON ($17.00) is another who gets the ball out there off the tee and showed signs of an improved game last weekend suggesting he could be right in this.

Of the local hopes FREDRIK ANDERSSON HED ($31.00) has been mixing his form this year but looks much more at home on a course where he can make some birdies rather than grinding his way through. HENRIK STENSON ($17.000 is another who is a huge chance of being in the running come Sunday. Was showing signs of returning to form before an average performance at Sandwich last weekend.

The PGA Tour hosts the Canadian Open and it is a much tougher prospect. This tournament has often thrown up a smokie who comes out of the clouds to take the cash making life much tougher to find a winner her. However, a golfer I have followed with some interest this year is RYAN MOORE ($23.00) as he is really playing some solid golf. When delving a little deeper I found that Moore put in a great performance to finish 5^th in the Canadian Open in 2005 (The last time the tournament was held at this course). Add to that the fact he’s almost a local here and he screams out as the top pick. The other golfer who performed well here in 2005 and although not in as good form this year could easily turn things around is BEN CRANE ($61.00). Crane also grew up in the area so his odds may be worth having a nibble at.

Our bets this week are:

FREDRIK ANDERSSON HED to beat Johan Edfors at $1.90

(Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

DUSTIN JOHNSON to beat Robert Karlsson at $1.80

(Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)

RYAN MOORE to beat Hunter Mahan at $1.87

(Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)

BEN CRANE to beat win his group (Bryce Moulder, Brian Gay, Paul Casey) at $3.90 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)